[SMM Nickel Brief] The average price of SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI rose 26.9 yuan/nickel unit WoW to 1,120 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the average Indonesian NPI FOB index price rose 3.14 $/nickel unit WoW to 143.2 $/nickel unit. The high-grade NPI market first declined and then rebounded this week. Sentiment was weak at the beginning of the week, but as Indonesian policies tightened and nickel prices rose, bullish expectations strengthened and the price center gradually shifted upward.

This week, prices of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China rose, with a quotation range of 10,550-10,650 yuan/mt. In Foshan, the same-specification stainless steel scrap off-cuts also strengthened, with a price range of 10,050-10,450 yuan/mt. From a raw material cost perspective, the current cost of producing stainless steel entirely from stainless steel scrap was approximately 14,761.4 yuan/mt, while the cost using entirely high-grade NPI reached 15,134.31 yuan/mt. Stainless steel scrap prices further strengthened this week. SS futures surged significantly, driven by SHFE nickel's rally amid geopolitical conflicts, which in turn transmitted to the spot market and pushed stainless steel spot prices higher in tandem. The alternative raw material high-grade NPI also rose in sympathy, bullish sentiment continued to build, and stainless steel scrap prices followed suit, maintaining a strong trend. The recent rapid rise in high-grade NPI prices further widened the cost advantage of stainless steel scrap over high-grade NPI. This core competitive edge continued to drive steel mills' preference for stainless steel scrap even amid persistent tax invoice issues plaguing the industry. Meanwhile, smelting margins at stainless steel mills gradually recovered, production enthusiasm remained high, production schedules stayed high, and procurement demand for stainless steel scrap remained solid, providing firm support for price rises. Overall, the stainless steel scrap market this week exhibited a further strengthening pattern characterized by "futures leading, raw material linkage, and demand support." Various supportive factors jointly dominated market trends, and although tax invoice issues persisted, they did not significantly constrain the strong price momentum. Stainless steel scrap prices were expected to hold up well in the near term.

This week, stainless steel spot prices and production costs both strengthened, with stainless steel mill smelting profits further expanding. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, calculated based on same-day raw material prices, the full cost profit margin reached 3.15% this week; if calculated based on inventory raw material costs, the profit margin was 5.41%. Nickel-based raw material costs: high-grade NPI prices rose sharply this week. Affected by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, sulfur supply tightened, driving SHFE nickel prices up significantly; combined with news related to Indonesian nickel ore, bullish expectations for high-grade NPI prices further strengthened. Recently, stainless steel mills have returned to profitability, increasing their acceptance of high-priced raw materials and enhancing procurement enthusiasm, pushing high-grade NPI prices up sharply within the week. As of this Friday, mainstream 10-12% grade high-grade NPI rose 38 yuan per nickel unit to 1,135 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market: stainless steel scrap prices further strengthened this week. SS futures surged, driven by SHFE nickel's spike triggered by geopolitical conflicts; this transmitted to the spot market, with stainless steel and alternative raw material high-grade NPI rising in tandem, boosting bullish sentiment. The rapid rise in high-grade NPI prices further highlighted the cost-effectiveness advantage of stainless steel scrap. Despite ongoing tax invoice issues, steel mills' preference for using scrap remained unchanged; combined with profit recovery and production schedules staying high, procurement demand was robust, providing strong price support. The overall pattern was "futures leading, raw materials moving in tandem, demand supporting," with tax invoice issues not significantly constraining the uptrend. Stainless steel scrap prices are expected to hold up well in the near term. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts prices in Shanghai rose 200 yuan/mt, with the latest quote at approximately 10,600 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw material costs: high-carbon ferrochrome prices remained generally stable this week. During the week, Tsingshan announced its May steel mill tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome, up 100 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM, further boosting ferrochrome market confidence; additionally, with stainless steel prices continuing to rise recently and production schedule expectations staying high, ferrochrome demand was unlikely to pull back significantly. However, ferrochrome production schedules remained at high levels, recent retail market transactions were sluggish, and market entities mostly adopted a cautious wait-and-see attitude, keeping prices relatively stable. As of this Friday, mainstream high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia held steady WoW at 8,475 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

[SMM Daily Comment: Supply and Demand Resonate on Both Sides, NPI Prices Continue to Rise] On April 30, SMM high-grade NPI upstream sentiment factor was 3.58, up 0.04 MoM, and the high-grade NPI downstream sentiment factor was 2.6, flat MoM.

[SMM Daily Comment: High-Grade NPI Prices Moved Up, Pre-Holiday Wait-and-See Sentiment Led to Sluggish Trading] April 28 — The SMM high-grade NPI upstream sentiment factor was 3.3, up 0.01 MoM, and the high-grade NPI downstream sentiment factor was 1.89, flat MoM.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Hit New Stage High Again, Stainless Steel Spot Transactions Cooled Before Labour Day Holiday SMM, April 28: SS futures showed a strong upward momentum. Driven by the continued strength of SHFE nickel, SS futures rose further, breaking through the high since 2023 again, once reaching 15,670 yuan/mt. As of the morning close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 15,630 yuan/mt. Spot market, as SS futures successively broke stage highs, spot stainless steel prices stayed high. Although the Labour Day holiday was approaching, end-user downstream mostly held a cautious wait-and-see attitude, and overall transactions were relatively sluggish. The most-traded SS futures contract strengthened and probed higher. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 15,420 yuan/mt, up 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi ranged from 0 to 200 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi rose by 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils fell by 50 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 100 yuan/mt in Foshan; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi held stable; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils in Wuxi held stable; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan held stable. Currently, the stainless steel market saw spot prices hold up well, driven by the surge in futures, but end-user wait-and-see sentiment persisted. Actual transactions remained generally weak and were significantly influenced by futures changes, showing phased concentrated transaction patterns, with overall demand not fully matching the price gains. Futures, this week...

[SMM Daily Comment: Sharp Rise in Nickel Prices Pushes Up Quotes, High-Grade NPI Center Rises Notably] April 27 — The SMM high-grade NPI upstream sentiment factor was 3.29, up 0.08 MoM, and the high-grade NPI downstream sentiment factor was 1.89, flat MoM.

[SMM Nickel News Flash] The average price of SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI rose 7.7 yuan/nickel unit WoW to 1,093.1 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the average Indonesian NPI FOB index price rose 1.55 $/nickel unit WoW to 140.06 $/nickel unit. The high-grade NPI market this week exhibited a "dip-then-rally" trend. Market sentiment was weak at the beginning of the week, but with the release of Indonesia's new HPM policy and the continued rise in nickel prices, bullish sentiment quickly recovered, and the price center gradually shifted upward.

[SMM Nickel Flash] Supply side, nickel prices surged on the overnight futures, and the market unanimously raised quotes, with active sentiment from upstream to hold prices firm. Demand side, stainless steel futures also moved higher, but spot market prices in China remained suppressed by end-users, and steel mills currently had limited acceptance of NPI prices. Overall, the surge in nickel prices drove high-grade NPI prices stronger, but upside room may be limited under end-user suppression.

This week, stainless steel spot prices and production costs rose in tandem, while smelting profits at stainless steel mills remained basically stable. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on same-day raw material prices, the full cost profit margin reached 1.79% this week; calculated on inventory raw material costs, the profit margin stood at 2.54%. Nickel raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices rose sharply this week. Stimulated by news related to Indonesian nickel mines, SHFE nickel and SS futures rose in tandem, driving up high-grade NPI prices. Although downstream stainless steel mills still showed a tendency to push for lower prices, stainless steel mill profits have recovered somewhat, and coupled with the cost pressure of high-grade NPI itself, the upward trend in prices may continue. As of this Friday, mainstream 10-12% grade high-grade NPI rose 7 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,097 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market, stainless steel scrap prices edged up this week. The strengthening of SS futures drove up finished product prices, while the continued fermentation of news on Indonesian nickel mine production halts boosted market sentiment, pushing high-grade NPI prices higher, with stainless steel scrap rising in tandem due to the linkage effect. Supporting factors are clear; although its economic advantage over NPI has narrowed, it remains competitive, and steel mills have strong purchase willingness; the easing of tax invoice shortages has also improved the trading environment. The market presents a pattern of "futures-spot linkage and demand support" with no obvious bearish factors for now, and stainless steel scrap prices are expected to hold up well in the short term. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts prices in the Shanghai region rose by 50 yuan/mt, with the latest quotation at around 10,400 yuan/mt. Chromium raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices remained broadly stable this week. During the week, TISCO took the lead in announcing its May steel mill tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome, up 100 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM, which boosted confidence in the ferrochrome market and eased the downward trend in retail quotations. However, as May tender prices from other mainstream stainless steel mills have yet to be finalised, the market remains uncertain about whether follow-up price increases will materialise, and the stable trend in short-term high-carbon ferrochrome prices is unlikely to change. As of this Friday, mainstream high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia were stable WoW, closing at 8,475 yuan/mt (50% metal content).