SMM prices of Indonesian nickel ore have remained generally stable this week. NPI prices showed a rebound trend during this week

Indonesian HPM prices saw an increase during the second pricing period of May, leading to a corresponding rise in pyrometallurgical-grade ore prices. However, nickel pig iron (NPI) prices remain under continued downward pressure in the short term.

This week, the SMM 8-12% high-grade NPI average price was 956.7 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), up by 12.5 yuan/mtu WoW, marking a significant increase. Meanwhile, the Indonesian NPI FOB index also rose by $1.6/mtu WoW, further confirming the upward trend in high-grade NPI prices. The price increase of high-grade NPI this week expanded, driven by multiple factors on both the supply and demand sides.

[SMM Analysis: High-Grade NPI Market Sees Robust Transactions, Short-Term Upward Trend Expected] This week, the average price of SMM 8-12% high-grade NPI was 956.7 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), up by 12.5 yuan/mtu WoW, with a significant increase...

In July, China's copper cathode output was 1.0282 million mt, up 2.31% MoM (+23,200 mt) and 11.05% YoY, exceeding the expected 1.0166 million mt by 11,600 mt. The output from January to July totalled 6.9465 million mt, up 461,400 mt YoY (+7.11% YoY).

In July 2024, China's NPI production was 29,900 mt in nickel content (+6.43% MoM) and 737,000 mt in physical content (+10.69% MoM).

This week, the average price of domestic high-grade NPI exceeded 1,000 yuan/mtu, up 12.9 yuan/mtu MoM, while the Indonesian NPI index rose by $2.1/mtu. Domestic smelters have increased their production enthusiasm, and short-term output is expected to rise. Tight supply of Indonesian ore has pushed up domestic trade premiums. Downstream stainless steel plants and traders are actively inquiring, and the upcoming peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" is expected to boost production plans, driving transaction prices to new highs. NPI costs remain firm, and short-term price expectations are strong. The discount of high-grade NPI to refined nickel has widened. This week, NPI prices increased, and it is expected that NPI will remain strong in the short term, while refined nickel prices may rise due to cost support and a recovery in downstream demand.

In June, Indonesian NPI production was 112,200 mt in metal content, down 0.36% MoM and 8.5% YoY.

In June, China's NPI production was 28,100 mt in metal content (+3.51% MoM) and 666,000 mt in physical content (-2% MoM).

On June 26, the price of SMM 8%-12% high-grade NPI averaged 968.5 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), down 3 yuan/mtu from the previous working day.