This week, the MHP market supply-demand pattern remained relatively loose, with nickel and cobalt payables still weak. On the supply side, after the strait reopened, some producers’ MHP output recovered somewhat, and some traders also released inventory to a degree recently, boosting market availability. On the demand side, downstream nickel salt and cobalt salt prices stayed sluggish, and losses in cobalt sulphate production created significant pressure, leaving salt producers relatively less willing to accept high-priced MHP and weighing on MHP payables. With supply rising and demand soft, MHP payables may pull back in the short term. The high-grade nickel matte market also faced a weak supply-demand pattern. High-grade nickel matte currently offers a clear cost advantage over MHP, but on the supply side, major suppliers have already completed long-term order signing, leaving limited spot availabilities. On the demand side, limited by downstream production line compatibility, actual consumption capacity is insufficient. Overall purchase sentiment was weak, trading activity was low, and payables remained stable. Sulphur (CIF Indonesia) held steady at $1,100-1,200/mt, with no new deals this week. During the earlier phased navigation period, several sulphur vessels bound for Indonesia gradually arrived at ports. MHP refineries now have relatively ample inventory, with low purchase willingness and buyer psychological price levels below $1,100/mt. Prices are expected to continue to consolidate at highs next week, trading will stay sluggish, and neither a sharp rise nor a sharp decline is likely to find a driver. On the nickel price front, nickel prices continued to consolidate this week. With quotas still unclear, a clear trend was hard to form. Meanwhile, MHP payables held steady, and MHP nickel prices remained stable with slight increases. Against a backdrop of stable high-grade nickel matte payables, prices consolidated along with nickel prices. In addition, MHP cobalt prices edged slightly higher on the back of a cobalt price rebound. Overall, the intermediate product market will be under pressure in the short term.

On July 31, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price edged down slightly.

[SMM Cobalt Lithium Morning Meeting Summary: Raw Material Price Divergence Intensifies; Energy Storage Demand Supports Continued Industry Prosperity] This week, the relevant material markets continued to diverge in performance. Upstream ore prices stopped falling and rebounded, but high-price transactions remained constrained. Some ex-China capacities gradually recovered, and market attention shifted from supply disruptions to the pace of new capacity releases. Salt products were supported by maintenance outages, tightening circulation of spot orders, and low inventories, leading to somewhat active spot transactions. However, downstream players still mainly made just-in-time procurement on price dips, and concentrated stockpiling has yet to emerge. The cobalt industry chain remained under pressure overall, with the price centers of refined cobalt, intermediate products, cobalt salts, and cobalt powder shifting downward. Off-season demand, inventory pressure, and low-priced cargoes continued to weigh on the market. Nickel sulphate inventories declined, and cost support strengthened somewhat. Prices of ternary cathode precursors and ternary cathode materials generally remained stable. The LFP, electrolyte, and sodium-ion battery sectors performed relatively strongly, with demand from energy storage, commercial vehicles, and Q3 stockpiling driving production schedules higher. Inventories of some products continued to decline. The anode and separator markets were generally stable. Different raw material varieties in the recycling sector showed divergent performance. The overall industry chain remained in a phase of concurrent demand improvement and cost pass-through.

On July 30, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price remained stable.

[7.29 Morning Meeting Minutes] The US Fed is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, and Fed Chairman Warsh will hold a press conference as usual at 2:30 a.m., which has been dubbed by the industry as the most unpredictable Fed decision. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) plunged sharply in the night session, with prices gradually rebounding in the morning session before closing at 131,660 yuan/mt, up 0.08%. The short-term trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2609) is expected to be 128,000-135,000 yuan/mt.

On July 29, SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price remained stable.

As of now, FOB prices for Indonesia MHP nickel are at $15,493/mt Ni, and FOB prices for Indonesia MHP cobalt are at $49,213/mt Co. MHP payables (against SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) stand at 85.5-86.5, and MHP cobalt payables (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) are at 93. Indonesia high-grade nickel matte FOB prices are at $15,879/mt Ni.

On July 28, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price remained stable.

[SMM Cobalt & Lithium Morning Brief: Battery Material Prices Show Divergent Trends, End-user Procurement Remains Cautious] Lithium ore prices are in the doldrums but low-priced resources are limited, lithium carbonate spot and futures prices rebounded, and lithium hydroxide maintained a steady slight increase. Refined cobalt and cobalt salt are generally in the doldrums, impacted by off-season demand, sufficient inventory, and cautious procurement. Nickel sulphate cost support strengthened, ternary cathode precursor prices held steady, and ternary cathode material rebounded slightly, but actual cargo pick-up remained cautious. LFP prices declined along with raw material, while shipments continued to grow, supported by energy storage and commercial vehicle demand. Anode, separator, and electrolyte prices were generally stable, with expectations for some raw material cost transmission downstream. Sodium-ion battery material supply remained relatively tight, while the recycling market consolidated on a weak note due to fluctuations in lithium and cobalt raw material prices.

[7.28 Morning Meeting Minutes] On July 24, Trump ordered a suspension of airstrikes on Iran (following 13 consecutive nights of strikes), primarily due to the depletion of air defense interceptor reserves and to leave room for diplomatic negotiations. Iran announced a suspension of reciprocal strikes on the 26th. Brent crude oil plunged 5% at Monday's open to around $92, and WTI fell to around $84.70. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract fell in morning trading, closing at 132,170 yuan/mt, down 0.42%. The US-Iran conflict has pressed pause, crude oil prices dropped significantly, and as sulfur cost support weakened, nickel prices pulled back. The US Fed will hold its July FOMC meeting on July 29, and the market widely expects interest rates to remain unchanged, easing macro pressure. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a core range of 130,000-137,000 yuan/mt in the near term.