The beginning of 2026 did not bring the calm usually expected in the global stainless steel industry chain ahead of the traditional Lunar New Year offseason. Instead, under the double pincer attack of surging raw material costs and escalating trade protectionism, the market is undergoing a violent restructuring.

[SMM Analysis: 10,000 mt Production Lines of NFPP Successively Put into Operation: Innovation in Sodium-ion Battery Cathode Materials and Reshaping of Market Landscape] SMM reported on May 13: On May 8, 2025, Huzhou Yingna New Energy put its 10,000 mt-scale production line for sodium iron iron(II) phosphate (NFPP) cathode materials into operation, marking a new stage in the commercialization of sodium-ion batteries...

Recently, there has been much discussion in the market regarding the Philippines' ban on mining, with news stating that "the Philippine government is expected to implement a ban on nickel ore exports starting from June 2025.

PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM), also known as Antam, recently responded to LG Energy Solution Ltd's (LGES) withdrawal from the integrated EV battery ecosystem in Indonesia, the Titan project. Antam stated that despite changes in partners, the company will continue to firmly support the Titan project as a supplier of nickel-based battery raw materials such as nickel manganese cobalt (NMC), and regard it as an important part of Indonesia's downstream nickel resource strategy. Company Secretary Faisal Alkadrie emphasized that the change of partners will not alter the project's main goal of developing the EV battery supply chain, and added that Antam will closely coordinate with the government to ensure the project continues to advance in line with national policies and development priorities.

On April 21, 2025, at CATL's first Super Technology Day event, the highly anticipated sodium-ion battery was officially unveiled. The newly released sodium-ion battery includes two major product types: a sodium-ion power battery for new passenger vehicles and a sodium-ion 24V integrated start-stop battery for heavy-duty trucks. Their debut sparked strong reactions within the industry, becoming a focal point of attention.

In early April, the US announced a so-called "reciprocal tariff" policy, imposing at least a 10% tariff on all goods exported to the US and higher rates on countries with the most severe trade imbalances. Among them, China will face a 34% tariff. At the same time, the US imposed a 24%-49% tariff on Southeast Asian countries (such as Vietnam and Thailand), blocking China's traditional strategy of re-exporting through third countries. On April 10, the US government announced that the "reciprocal tariff" rate on Chinese goods exported to the US would be further increased to 125%. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association under the China Automobile Dealers Association, stated that the proportion of Chinese cars exported to the US is negligible, especially for domestic brands, and they will not be affected by the US tariff hike. In 2024, only 116,000 units of Chinese cars were exported to the US, accounting for just 1.81% of China's total car exports. Previously, most domestic brand companies in China had already announced their withdrawal from the US market. Although this tariff adjustment has a relatively limited impact on China's vehicle manufacturers, it has become a focal point in the automotive parts sector, where the US is one of the main export destinations. For example, according to data disclosed by the General Administration of Customs, in 2024, the US remained the largest market for China's lithium battery exports, with an export value of $15.315 billion, setting a new record, and accounting for 25% of China's total lithium battery export value, up 4.2 percentage points from 2023. According to a set of data shared by Cui Dongshu recently, since 2020, China's lithium battery exports have performed relatively well, with exports reaching $15.9 billion in 2020, rising to $28.4 billion in 2021 and $50.9 billion in 2022, and reaching an extremely high level of $64.9 billion in 2023, but dropping to $61.1 billion in 2024. In Q1 2024, China's monthly lithium battery exports remained stable at around $5 billion. It can be seen that the US's high tariff policy will bring some pressure to China's new energy battery industry in the short term. However, China controls 80% of the global battery industry chain (from lithium mines to equipment manufacturing). Although Japanese and South Korean battery companies have formed a certain competitive advantage in the US market, they still rely on core materials from China for their factories in the US. In the upstream material field, data from research institution EVTank shows that China's global market share of key battery materials is at a high level and is on the rise; in 2024, the market share of cathode materials reached 89.6%, anode materials 95.9%, electrolytes 91.9%, and separators 79.4%, making it difficult to shake its dominant position in the short term. In the medium and long term, EVTank pointed out that the future international development of China's lithium battery industry will gradually shift from being trade-oriented to local investment and development overseas, and from exports to going global. According to incomplete statistics from Battery Network, in 2024, there were over 279 investment and expansion projects in the new energy battery industry chain, with 229 projects announcing investment amounts, totaling 628.188 billion yuan. Among them, in 2024, domestic battery industry chain companies invested in 27 overseas projects, with 25 projects announcing investment amounts, totaling about 97.031 billion yuan, accounting for 15.45% of the total annual investment. It is worth noting that all 27 overseas projects included in the statistics were invested and constructed by A-share listed companies, covering almost the entire battery industry chain, including batteries, battery raw materials, cathode and anode materials, electrolytes, copper foils, separators, and structural components, except for some auxiliary materials. In terms of overseas destinations, domestic companies mainly focused on locations such as Hungary and Spain in Europe, Morocco in Africa, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia in Southeast Asia, and the US in North America. Currently, the uncertainty caused by the "reciprocal tariff" is still fermenting. According to rough statistics from Battery Network, in April alone, more than 12 listed companies announced new developments in overseas battery and material-related projects, accelerating the construction or advancement of overseas factories or related projects to avoid trade barriers and get closer to market demand. Pulite: HSD's First Overseas Cell Factory Delivered On April 6, Pulite (002324) held a factory delivery ceremony and mechanical and electrical installation project commencement ceremony for its 2.5GWh cylindrical power battery production base project in Malaysia, invested by its subsidiary HSD. HSD's Malaysian factory plans to complete the installation and commissioning of mechanical and electrical engineering and equipment within six months, with production expected to start in Q3 2025. It will then become HSD's first overseas cell factory to achieve mass production. The factory, with a planned investment of 750 million yuan, will mainly produce cylindrical batteries for power tools, smart mobility, and cleaning appliances, with an annual capacity of 2.5GWh. Investment Nears 1 Billion Yuan! EVE's Overseas Factory Receives Approval On the morning of April 8, EVE (300014) announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, EVE Power Hungary Kft. (referred to as "EVE Hungary"), recently received a building permit decision from the Debrecen City Government in Hungary, allowing EVE Hungary to establish a battery manufacturing plant in Debrecen. EVE stated that receiving the building permit decision will effectively promote the company's construction needs in Hungary and facilitate all parties to fully leverage their resources and advantages, further expanding the production capacity of power and ESS batteries, continuously consolidating and enhancing the company's influence, comprehensive competitiveness, and internationalization level in the new energy industry, and is an important step in the company's efforts to improve its global industrial layout. According to EVE's announcement in June 2023, its wholly-owned subsidiary, EVE Hungary, plans to invest no more than 9.971 billion yuan in the construction of a large cylindrical battery project for passenger vehicles. Annual Capacity of About 200,000 mt! GEM and Korea's ECOPRO Plan to Jointly Build Cathode Material Plant On April 11, GEM (002340) announced that it had signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Korea's ECOPRO and its subsidiary ECOPRO BM to build a "nickel resource - new energy materials" industry chain. Both parties will jointly develop the IGIP park in Indonesia and implement the IGIP project, covering the core supply chain of secondary battery materials, including nickel resources, precursors, and cathode materials. ECOPRO will participate in the infrastructure service company with a stake of no more than 20%. GEM and ECOPRO will also jointly invest in a laterite nickel ore high-pressure leaching project and establish a joint venture to build a cathode material plant with an annual capacity of about 200,000 mt. This strategic cooperation aims to enhance GEM's core position in the global high-nickel precursor manufacturing field, promote the company's future performance growth, and align with the company's long-term development strategy and the interests of its investors. CATL: German Factory Now Profitable On the evening of April 14, CATL (300750) released its Q1 financial report. During the earnings briefing, CATL stated that in terms of the profitability of overseas factories, the company's power battery sales in the European market achieved YoY growth in Q1. The company's market share in the European power battery market increased from 17% in 2021 to 38% in 2024, ranking first, and the market share has continued to increase this year, widening the gap with the second place. The company's German factory has started to make a profit. Two Listed Companies to Build Two Lithium Battery Factories in the US According to news from CBAT, on April 14, CBAT and KNDI reached a strategic cooperation to plan and construct two lithium battery production bases in the US in phases. Currently, CBAT and KNDI are evaluating site selection options: the first phase will prioritize the construction of a battery pack assembly factory, and subsequent cell manufacturing projects will be advanced based on market conditions. The two projects will be established as joint ventures with differentiated equity structures. About 5 Billion Yuan! Shenzhen Senior Technology Material's First ASEAN Lithium Battery Separator Factory to Open Soon According to Shenzhen Senior Technology Material (300568), on April 16, President Xi Jinping, at the invitation of the Supreme Head of State of Malaysia, Ibrahim Iskandar, paid a state visit to Malaysia. As a representative of local Chinese new energy enterprises, Chen Xiufeng, Chairman of Shenzhen Senior Technology Material, was invited to attend the state ceremony at the Malaysian National Palace and the welcome luncheon. Shenzhen Senior Technology Material announced that it plans to invest about 5 billion yuan to build a high-performance lithium-ion battery separator production base in Penang, Malaysia. Upon completion, it will have a production capacity of 100 million m² of wet-process separators and coated separators. It is reported that this base will be the first lithium battery separator factory in the ASEAN region and is expected to start production in mid-2025. Annual Production of 200,000 mt Electrolyte! Tinci Responds to Progress of US Project On April 16, Tinci (002709) responded to the progress of its US project during an institutional survey. In January 2025, the company signed a cooperation agreement with Honeywell to jointly establish a joint venture, aiming to accelerate the large-scale production of electrolytes and LiPF6 in the North American market. Both parties will jointly invest in the construction of electrolyte and LiPF6 projects, which are currently in the preliminary preparation stage. Tinci stated that the Texas Tinci project, which plans to build an annual production capacity of 200,000 mt of electrolytes, has completed land acquisition and is currently advancing factory design and related environmental assessment procedures. Shanshan Technology and Falcon Jointly Develop Natural Graphite Anode Material Project On April 16, according to "Shanshan News," recently, Shanshan Technology, a subsidiary of Shanshan Co., Ltd. (600884), and Falcon Energy Materials plc. signed a strategic cooperation agreement. Both parties will rely on the Moroccan production base to jointly develop a natural graphite anode material project, accelerating the innovation and upgrade of the global new energy material supply chain. According to the plan, both parties aim to achieve large-scale trial production of natural graphite at the Moroccan base in H2 2025, quickly responding to the global market demand for high-performance anode materials. Chuanjinuo: Plans to Invest 1.934 Billion Yuan in Phosphate Chemical Project in Egypt On the evening of April 17, Chuanjinuo (300505) announced that it plans to build a project in Egypt with an annual production capacity of 800,000 mt of sulfuric acid, 300,000 mt of industrial wet-process crude phosphoric acid, 150,000 mt of 52% phosphoric acid, 300,000 mt of monoammonium phosphate, and 20,000 mt of sodium fluosilicate. The total investment in the project is 1.934 billion yuan, with 1.609 billion yuan for fixed assets and 325 million yuan for working capital, funded by corporate self-raising and bank loans. EVE: Malaysian ESS Factory Expected to Start Mass Production Early Next Year On the evening of April 17, EVE (300014) released its 2024 annual report. The report shows that in 2024, EVE's Malaysian factory ESS project is proceeding as planned, with mass production expected to start in early 2026, supporting global deliveries. Additionally, in the small cylindrical battery segment, the construction of EVE's small cylindrical battery factory in Malaysia is progressing smoothly, with production expected to start in early 2025, further meeting customer demand. Tengyuan Cobalt Plans to Invest Nearly 1 Billion Yuan to Build Copper and Cobalt Smelter in DRC On April 21, Tengyuan Cobalt (301219) announced that to further secure the supply of raw materials for domestic cobalt smelters after the company's expansion and to support its 2022-2026 development plan, the company plans to purchase new land in the DRC to build a hydrometallurgy plant with an annual production capacity of 30,000 mt of copper and 2,000 mt of cobalt. The project investment is 980 million yuan (approximately $136 million), with a construction period of 18 months. ... EVTank reminded that in the face of complex global geopolitics and trade environments, especially the "competitive cooperation" between China and Europe and the "competitive game" between China and the US in the medium and long term, the global expansion of China's battery industry is "going against the wind" and will face more challenges. "Building factories in the US is fraught with difficulties. It is possible to establish factories in other overseas markets, such as building regional supply chains in Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Indonesia) and other regions, utilizing local resources (nickel, cobalt) and low-cost labor to disperse tariff pressures. However, the US 'country of origin principle' restricts the export of Chinese-funded overseas factories. In the medium and long term, it is necessary to be vigilant against the systemic risks brought about by the repeated changes in US policies and the restructuring of the global industry chain." Yu Qingjiao, Secretary General of the Zhongguancun New-type Battery Technology Innovation Alliance, also stated that the geopolitical risks in the US market are too high, and power battery enterprises basically do not consider building factories in the US. To hedge against the impact of high US tariffs, strategies such as technology licensing models, FOB models to transfer tariffs, and expanding emerging markets are mainly used to gradually turn challenges into opportunities to consolidate global leadership.

[SMM Analysis: CATL Launches New Generation Sodium-Ion Battery, What's the Future of Sodium-Ion Battery?] SMM, April 22: On April 21, 2025, at CATL's first Super Technology Day event, the highly anticipated sodium-ion battery was officially unveiled. The released sodium-ion battery includes two major product types: a sodium-ion power battery for new passenger vehicles and a sodium-ion 24V integrated start-stop battery for heavy-duty trucks. Their debut sparked strong reactions within the industry, becoming the focus of attention from all sides...

Minmetals Acquires Brazilian Nickel Industry, Adding Over 5 Million mt of Resources. Minmetals' net profit in Q1 increased by 4.6% YoY, and it completed the 100% acquisition of the Brazilian nickel industry, expected to add over 5 million mt of nickel resources, strengthening its resource security capabilities. Meanwhile, it is advancing the salt lake lithium carbonate project, laying out the new energy industry chain.

After a sharp decline on the first day after the holiday, SHFE nickel returned above 120,000 as shorts took profits and exited the market. Futures prices then steadily rebounded, gradually filling the previous gap. Indonesia has announced a new policy on nickel product royalties. What impact will this have on the nickel market? How should we view Indonesia's multiple policy adjustments this year? What is the current supply and demand situation for nickel? What factors in the fundamentals are worth paying attention to? After consecutive rebounds, does SHFE nickel still have room for further upside? Webstock Inc.'s [Institutional Diagnosis] section invites SHFE nickel futures experts to provide in-depth insights. [Institutional Diagnosis]: Indonesia has announced a new policy on nickel product royalties. What impact will this have on the nickel market? How should we view Indonesia's multiple policy adjustments this year? Gu Jing, Senior Analyst at Yide Futures Investment Consulting Department: The increase in tax rates for raw materials and smelting products directly raises production costs. Based on the HMA price of nickel at $15,534.62/mt in the second period of March 2025, the cost of nickel ore with a grade of 1.6%-2.0% will increase by $1.1-1.8/wmt. Assuming the rise in mining costs is fully passed on to smelting, coupled with the increase in smelting tax rates, the cost of NPI will rise by $420/mt (metal content), and the cost of nickel matte will increase by $411/mt (metal content). The cost of MHP using low-grade nickel ore remains unaffected. After nearly two years of surplus, nickel prices have been fluctuating at the bottom. As the world's largest supplier of nickel, Indonesia has recently introduced multiple policies aimed at helping nickel prices break out of the low valuation range, ensuring more rational use of nickel resources, and thereby increasing domestic tax revenue. Jiang Xinbin, Senior Metal Analyst at Zheshang Futures Research Center: Indonesia's nickel product royalty policy has recently been implemented. The core of this policy is to implement a progressive tax rate increase for products at various stages of the nickel industry chain. The new policy significantly raises the tax burden on nickel ore and its downstream products, directly lifting the cost center of the nickel industry chain and supporting nickel prices: based on the current HMA, the royalty for nickel ore has been increased from a fixed 10% to 14%, potentially driving NPI costs up by $180-200/mt. In 2025, Indonesia has frequently introduced policies, from the SIMBARA system and HMA price adjustments to the new royalty policy. Behind these moves is not only Indonesia's long-term strategy to enhance resource revenue and strengthen the voice of related industries but also a stopgap measure by the Indonesian government to cope with the huge costs of Prabowo's "flagship project." Xia Peng, Head of Nonferrous and New Energy Group at Chuangyuan Futures Research Institute: The Indonesian government's 2025 Government Regulation No. 19 is an update based on the 2022 Regulation No. 26, mainly increasing the cost of nickel ore usage, with the royalty levied only once during the industry chain process. The royalty rate for nickel ore with a grade below 1.5% remains at 2%, while the rate for ore above 1.5% has been increased from 10% to 14%-19% (with progressive increases based on different HMA nickel prices). The impact on nickel prices is mainly reflected in the upward shift in costs. As a resource-exporting country, the new Indonesian government, which took office last October, has adjusted its mineral policies primarily to alleviate fiscal pressure. [Institutional Diagnosis]: What is the current supply and demand situation for nickel? What factors in the fundamentals are worth paying attention to? Gu Jing, Senior Analyst at Yide Futures Investment Consulting Department: On the supply side, the rainy season in the main mining areas of the Philippines has ended, and ore output has seasonally rebounded, with a noticeable increase in ship departures, up YoY. The import of Philippine ore to Indonesia has significantly increased, easing the tight ore supply in the later period. Indonesian NPI smelting production remains high, while high-grade nickel matte production stays low due to tight high-grade ore supply, and MHP production remains high. Domestic refined nickel production also maintains a high schedule. On the demand side, the cumulative YoY decline in ternary power battery installations is significant, leading to reduced demand for high-grade nickel matte and MHP. The recent implementation of new battery standards has constrained end-use consumption, making it difficult to drive up intermediate product prices through downstream orders in the short term. In the stainless steel sector, both 200-series and 300-series production remain high, with nickel consumption maintaining a high growth rate of over 10%. However, stainless steel inventory pressure is expected to be significant in the later period. Overall, the nickel industry remains in a surplus. The recent implementation of Indonesia's tax policies has provided strong support for prices, and future attention should be paid to whether there will be any unexpected performance on the demand side. Jiang Xinbin, Senior Metal Analyst at Zheshang Futures Research Center: On the supply side, the hype around Indonesia's BNBP policy for nickel ore has subsided, and the imminent resumption of production by major nickel pig iron (NPI) producers continues to tighten supply in Indonesia, with high domestic trade premiums supporting ore prices. In terms of primary nickel, domestic smelters have low nickel ore inventories, and some companies are still in maintenance periods, keeping overall NPI production low. Indonesian NPI production remains high in April, and the pullback in nickel prices has driven the conversion of high-grade nickel matte back to NPI, likely extending the surplus. Recent MHP production cuts are expected to marginally tighten refined nickel supply. Overall, Indonesia's nickel supply remains relatively loose. On the demand side, stainless steel demand is recovering slowly, with a slow destocking pace, and traders are pessimistic about future orders, indicating a generally weak demand. Future supply-side attention should focus on the shipping pace of Philippine nickel ore and Indonesia's domestic nickel ore trade, while demand-side attention should be on stainless steel inventory and order dynamics. Xia Peng, Head of Nonferrous and New Energy Group at Chuangyuan Futures Research Institute: From a fundamental perspective, the current supply and demand situation in nickel smelting remains challenging. As of April 17, LME refined nickel inventory stood at 204,500 mt, the highest since September 2021. Last Friday, SMM reported domestic refined nickel social inventory at 43,300 mt, indicating no shortage of refined nickel, the trading target in the futures market. The main point of contention since the Chinese New Year has been the disruptions in Indonesian nickel ore supply. In 2024, Indonesia accounted for 60% of global primary nickel production, showing a high concentration. Moreover, MHP capacity in the smelting sector continues to expand, making nickel ore relatively scarce compared to smelting capacity. The anchor for futures pricing lies in the ore sector. Last year, the slow issuance of RKAB in Indonesia, combined with low smelter ore inventories, the rainy season, and the Indonesian Ramadan in March, created a short-term supply-demand mismatch, driving nickel ore prices and subsequently nickel prices slightly higher. As we approach May, seasonal recovery in nickel ore supply from Indonesia and the Philippines may slightly ease the tight ore supply, with a focus on nickel ore price changes. [Institutional Diagnosis]: After consecutive rebounds, does SHFE nickel still have room for further upside? Gu Jing, Senior Analyst at Yide Futures Investment Consulting Department: Currently, with the easing of macro sentiment, the LME market has fully recovered from the decline caused by reciprocal tariffs, and the market has already reacted to the adjustment of Indonesia's PNBP tax rates. The current surplus continues, with high inventory levels exerting downward pressure. We believe that further upside in the futures market will require further improvement in the supply and demand fundamentals. Jiang Xinbin, Senior Metal Analyst at Zheshang Futures Research Center: After the Qingming Festival, SHFE nickel prices rebounded from low levels, approaching the middle of the previous trading range. From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, although the implementation of Indonesia's nickel product royalty policy has pushed the price center higher, the overall supply of primary nickel remains rigidly growing, with high inventory pressure for Class 1 nickel still present. On the demand side, stainless steel is significantly dragged down by weak end-use consumption in real estate and infrastructure, with cautious market procurement and pessimistic order expectations making it difficult to form strong support. Overall, the global nickel market remains in a supply-demand surplus, and SHFE nickel's upside room for continued rebound in the short term is limited, with sideways movement expected. Attention should be paid to changes in Indonesia's industrial policies and the macro environment. Xia Peng, Head of Nonferrous and New Energy Group at Chuangyuan Futures Research Institute: This year, we have been closely monitoring changes in Indonesia's mineral policies, particularly whether there will be adjustments to nickel ore quotas. Information from the Indonesian Nickel Association shows that the Indonesian government has allocated 298 million mt of nickel ore quotas for 2025, which is estimated to meet the nickel ore consumption for 2025 based on this year's smelting production. Global primary nickel supply and demand remain in surplus. However, since December last year, government officials have repeatedly stated in public that they plan to reduce this year's nickel ore quotas to stabilize nickel prices. If the quota is cut to 220 million mt as suggested by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources officials at the end of February, the global primary nickel supply and demand will completely reverse this year, shifting from surplus to shortage. Over the past decade, the Indonesian government has adjusted its mineral policies multiple times, making it difficult to predict future policy directions. It is recommended to closely monitor changes in Indonesian nickel ore prices.

At the CLNB 2025 (10th) New Energy Industry Chain Expo - Academician & Top-Tier Entrepreneurs Forum hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., SMM CEO Logan Lu shared insights on the topic "Reflections on the Industry Chain from the Perspective of Energy Transition."