On April 29, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 3,350 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,300 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China's mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from -800 to 0 yuan/mt.

SMM Nickel News, April 29: Macro and Market News: (1) The US prohibited domestic individuals or entities from paying Strait of Hormuz transit fees to Iran, and non-US individuals or entities paying Strait of Hormuz safe passage fees to Iran would also face significant sanctions risks. (2) The Tariff Commission of the State Council issued an announcement that from May 1, 2026 to April 30, 2028, zero tariffs in the form of preferential tax rates will be applied to 20 African countries that have established diplomatic relations with China and are not classified as least developed countries. Spot Market: On April 29, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 3,350 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,300 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -800 to 0 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2606 contract surged in the morning session before pulling back slightly, closing at 150,810 yuan/mt in the morning session, up 1.37%. Indonesia's tightening quota policies continued to strengthen, the sulfur supply crisis intensified, MHP production was hampered, and sulfur prices continued to rise amid tight supply, providing strong cost support. Combined with recent news of production halts and production cuts at Indonesian smelters, nickel prices held up well. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract price is expected to trade in the range of 140,000-150,000 yuan/mt.

SMM Nickel News, April 28: Macro and market news: (1) On April 27, Moody's Investors Service released a report deciding to maintain China's sovereign credit rating at "A1" and upgraded the outlook to "stable." This rating reflects Moody's high recognition of the strong resilience demonstrated by China's macroeconomic and fiscal strength in the face of external shocks, as well as the new momentum and new progress in China's high-quality economic development. (2) Iranian Foreign Minister: The US requested negotiations, and Iran is considering it. US media reported that Iran proposed a deal to the US to reopen the strait but postponed nuclear talks. Trump was skeptical of Iran's proposal but did not outright reject it. Spot market: On April 28, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 1,800 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,350 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; premiums for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -1,000 to 0 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2606 contract pulled back slightly during the session before rallying again, closing at 149,110 yuan/mt in the morning session, up 0.58%. Indonesia's tightening quota policies continued to intensify, the sulfur supply crisis worsened, MHP production was hampered, and sulfur prices continued to rise amid tight supply, providing strong cost support. Combined with the recent fermentation of news about production halts and production cuts at Indonesian smelters, nickel prices held up well. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 140,000-150,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Daily Comment: Sharp Rise in Nickel Prices Pushes Up Quotes, High-Grade NPI Center Rises Notably] April 27 — The SMM high-grade NPI upstream sentiment factor was 3.29, up 0.08 MoM, and the high-grade NPI downstream sentiment factor was 1.89, flat MoM.

[SMM Nickel Flash] Supply side, nickel prices surged on the overnight futures, and the market unanimously raised quotes, with active sentiment from upstream to hold prices firm. Demand side, stainless steel futures also moved higher, but spot market prices in China remained suppressed by end-users, and steel mills currently had limited acceptance of NPI prices. Overall, the surge in nickel prices drove high-grade NPI prices stronger, but upside room may be limited under end-user suppression.

SMM Nickel News, April 24: Macro and market news: (1) Indonesia's Weda Bay Nickel mine will suspend operations for maintenance starting May, while NPI production remains normal. Although external ore sales reached 8.3 million wmt in Q1 (up 54% YoY), PT WBN announced it would shift its mine operations to "care and maintenance" status in May 2026, as its 2026 RKAB quota was slashed by 70% (the initial batch was only 12 million wmt, far below the 42 million wmt in 2025). (2) The Ministry of Commerce held a regular press conference on the afternoon of April 23. In response to the US Customs and Border Protection initiating related tariff refund procedures on the 20th, the Ministry stated that China has consistently opposed any form of unilateral tariff hike measures. The US unilateral measures, including reciprocal tariffs and fentanyl tariffs, violate international trade rules and US domestic law, undermine the global trade order, and serve no party's interests. Spot market: On April 24, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 3,550 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,850 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from -600 to 600 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2606 contract rose sharply in the morning session, breaking through 146,000 yuan/mt, and closed at 145,900 yuan/mt at the end of the morning session, up 2.63%. Indonesia's tightening quota policy continued to intensify, the sulfur supply crisis deepened, MHP production was hampered, and sulfur prices continued to rise amid tight supply, providing strong cost support. Combined with the recent fermentation of news about production suspensions and cuts at Indonesian smelters, nickel prices held up well. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 140,000-150,000 yuan/mt.

SMM Nickel News, April 17: Macro and market news: (1) On April 17, the State Council Information Office held a press conference in the "Getting Started on the 15th Five-Year Plan" series, introducing the promotion of high-quality economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The NDRC stated it would focus on expanding effective domestic demand and formulate an implementation plan for the strategy to expand domestic demand from 2026 to 2030. (2) Trump said Lebanon and Israel agreed to a 10-day ceasefire; the Israeli PM agreed to the ceasefire and said troops would remain stationed in southern Lebanon; the Lebanese PM welcomed Trump's ceasefire announcement. Spot market: On April 17, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 2,350 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel premiums ranged from -700-600 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract surged sharply in the morning session, touching 145,000 yuan/mt, and closed at 143,730 yuan/mt, up 1.54%. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) officially confirmed the implementation of the revised nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) calculation formula starting April 15, 2026, which is expected to significantly raise the floor support for nickel prices, driving a sharp rally. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to hold up well on sentiment following the release of the new pricing formula. Going forward, attention should be paid to the actual cost increase after the implementation of Indonesia's new HPM formula.

This week, ternary cathode precursor prices edged down. Today, nickel sulphate prices rose slightly, cobalt sulphate prices dipped marginally, and manganese sulphate prices held steady. Payables side, for April and Q2 orders, some producers were willing to raise discounts due to significant raw material price fluctuations. Long-term contract side, some producers recently negotiated long-term contracts. Some producers saw slight increases in nickel and cobalt discounts, while others may have had some room for negotiation on processing fees. However, as downstream acceptance of high-priced raw materials remained weak, the overall upside room for coefficients is expected to be limited. Spot order side, cobalt and manganese coefficients generally held stable in April. Downstream purchasing sentiment was weak, and further rises are expected to be difficult. If nickel prices strengthen further, nickel coefficients may have some room to rise.

SMM Nickel News, April 14: Macro and Market News: (1) Data released by the General Administration of Customs on April 14 showed that China's total goods trade import and export value in Q1 2026 reached 11.84 trillion yuan, exceeding 11 trillion yuan for the first time in the same period historically, with the YoY growth rate maintaining double-digit growth at 15%. (2) According to preliminary statistics from the People's Bank of China, the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing in Q1 2026 was 14.83 trillion yuan, 354.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year. At the end of March, the broad money (M2) balance stood at 353.86 trillion yuan, up 8.5% YoY. RMB loans increased by 8.6 trillion yuan in Q1. Spot Market: On April 14, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose by 3,900 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 2,900 yuan/mt, down 450 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from -500 to 600 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract surged significantly today, rising over 3% at one point during the morning session, and closed the morning session at 137,810 yuan/mt, up 2.67%. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) officially confirmed that the revised nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) calculation formula will take effect from April 15, 2026. This is expected to significantly raise the floor support for nickel prices, driving a sharp rally in nickel prices. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to hold up well on sentiment following the release of the new pricing formula. Going forward, attention should be paid to the actual extent of cost increases after the implementation of Indonesia's new HPM formula.

Nickel market remained in the doldrums this week. On the first trading day after the Qingming Festival, both SHFE and LME nickel opened low and trended lower, with a lack of market drivers. Combined with the Strait of Hormuz blockade triggering broad pressure on risk assets, nickel prices were clearly in the doldrums. However, mid-week, the announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire sharply boosted risk appetite, the US dollar index came under significant pressure, and nickel prices rebounded notably alongside improved sentiment across the non-ferrous sector in and outside China. Spot market, the weekly average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 135,363 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt WoW. Jinchuan nickel premiums continued to weaken, with the weekly average at 3,500 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt WoW. Trading of imported cargoes and domestic electrodeposited nickel was overall sluggish, spot premiums declined in tandem, and downstream procurement was mainly driven by rigid demand, with limited willingness to restock. On the macro front, on April 7, US President Trump announced that if Iran agreed to fully open the Strait of Hormuz, the US would agree to suspend military operations against Iran for two weeks. Iran's Supreme National Security Council promptly accepted the ceasefire proposal. However, the stability of the ceasefire agreement remained in doubt, as the Strait of Hormuz was closed again on April 8. Geopolitical risks were not fully resolved, and market sentiment may continue to swing wildly as the situation fluctuates. US March non-farm payrolls data rebounded beyond expectations, hitting a high of over a year. After the data release, market bets on US Fed interest rate cuts cooled notably. The minutes of the US Fed's March FOMC meeting showed that the vast majority of officials believed progress on inflation pullback could be slower than expected, and the rate cut path had already narrowed significantly before the ceasefire. Inventory, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was approximately 1,700 mt this week, flat WoW. Domestic social inventory was approximately 92,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 200 mt WoW. Currently, nickel prices are caught between geopolitical risk fluctuations and weak fundamentals. In the short term, the core fluctuation range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to be 130,000–138,000 yuan/mt.