SMM Nickel, March 20: Macro and Market News: (1) The Party Committee of the People's Bank of China held an enlarged meeting on March 18, which stated that it would continue to effectively implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, firmly safeguard the stable operation of financial markets such as equities, bonds, and foreign exchange, and advance legislative formulation and amendments including the People's Bank of China Law and the Financial Stability Law. (2) The interest rate futures market priced in only 5.5 basis points of US Fed interest rate cuts this year, and bets on rate hikes began to emerge. Spot Market: On March 20, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel rose by 3,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,550 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the mainstream China electrodeposited nickel brands were quoted at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) staged a sharp rebound, closing the morning session at 134,780 yuan/mt, up 1.50. Yesterday, nickel prices once fell below the 130,000 yuan mark, as trades on expectations of a global economic recession triggered by escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East put the metals complex under pressure overall. Nickel prices then took the lead in rebounding sharply, recovering to around 135,000 yuan/mt in the morning session. Short term, sentiment from the macro perspective may continue to dominate the market, and nickel prices may maintain wide swings.

[SMM Daily Review: Low-Priced Sell-Offs Fueled Panic Sentiment, Triggering a Phased Decline in High-Grade NPI] March 20 News: SMM's upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.84, down 0.04 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.63, up 0.04 MoM.

Downstream Purchasing Activity for Nickel Intermediate Products Increased, Tight Supply and Demand Drove Prices Higher

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Stopped Falling and Rebounded, Stainless Steel Spot Quotations Rose in Tandem SMM News, March 20: SS futures stopped falling and rebounded. Base metals futures generally recovered, with SS futures showing particularly strong performance and basically recouping this week’s losses, closing at 14,160 yuan/mt by the midday close. In the spot market, driven by the strong rebound in SS futures and coupled with stainless steel mill agents’ efforts to hold prices firm, stainless steel retail quotations also moved higher accordingly; supported by improving market sentiment, both inquiry activity and trading picked up. High-grade NPI prices remained in the doldrums, and the steel mill tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome was announced below market expectations, leaving weak cost support for stainless steel. The most-traded SS futures contract stopped falling and recovered. At 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,150 yuan/mt, up 220 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 220-420 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi rose by 50 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled trimmed 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi rose by 100 yuan/mt, and the average price in Foshan rose by 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil quotations in Wuxi were unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. Entering the traditional September-October peak season, although the stainless steel market ushered in a seasonal recovery window, end-use demand fell short of expectations, downstream wait-and-see sentiment gradually intensified, and procurement only...

[SMM Titanium Weekly Review: Cost-Driven Titanium Dioxide Price Hikes Took Effect, Market Adjustments Released Upward Signals] This week, the titanium industry chain showed a divergent trend. The titanium concentrate market remained in the doldrums, with imported ore prices falling लगातार under pressure from downstream efforts to push for lower prices and accumulating port inventory. Titanium dioxide, meanwhile, saw the second round of collective price adjustments in mid-month under persistently high sulphuric acid costs. Mainstream enterprises in China raised domestic prices by 500 yuan/mt and export prices by $100/mt, pushing the quoted center up to 14,000-14,500 yuan/mt, though follow-up from domestic demand remained mediocre and foreign trade orders showed clear divergence. The titanium slag market stayed in the doldrums, with prices under pressure amid weak costs and demand. In the titanium sponge market, leading enterprises took the lead in raising prices, with domestic prices up 2,000 yuan/mt and international prices up $300/mt. Supported by restocking demand for titanium materials and low inventory, the market showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm, but downstream processing segments still maintained a wait-and-see stance, and titanium ingot and titanium plate/strip prices only edged up slightly. Overall, cost support and structural demand divergence coexisted, and future price trends still depended on substantive improvement on the supply and demand side.

[Downstream Enterprises Actively Priced and Purchased, with Spot Transactions Improving Significantly During the Week]: This week, Ningbo spot premiums continued to rise, with the weekly average price up 20 yuan/mt WoW. As of this Friday, Ningbo spot prices against the 2604 contract were at a discount of 30 yuan/mt, with a premium of 50 yuan/mt against Shanghai, and the premium against Shanghai widened during the week..

SMM News, March 20: Lead prices weakened this week, and secondary lead smelters lowered scrap battery purchase prices due to profit pressure. Today, the average scrap battery purchase prices at smelters were: waste e-bike battery at 9,825 yuan/mt, waste automotive lead-acid battery (white shell) at 9,875 yuan/mt, and waste automotive starter lead-acid battery (black shell) at 10,125 yuan/mt. Recyclers also followed the decline, and after prices were cut, downstream collection outlets held back cargoes, with recycling volume decreasing WoW. Smelter inventory diverged, with low-inventory smelters holding only enough for one week of production, while high-inventory smelters made limited just-in-time procurement after small price cuts. According to the SMM survey, market expectations for lead prices were weak, and if prices continue to weaken next week, scrap battery prices are expected to be lowered again. This week, the mainstream self pick-up price at major ports for imported crude lead was at a discount of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, while some cargoes were at a premium of 50 yuan/mt. Domestic secondary crude lead cargoes were quoted firmly due to insufficient operating rates caused by cost pressure. As of this Friday, the mainstream tax-excluded ex-factory prices stood near 15,200 yuan/mt. Going into next week, imported lead is still expected to arrive at ports one after another, and downstream enterprises have been active in making inquiries. SMM expects domestic secondary crude lead supply to remain tight. » Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

[Futures Zinc Prices Fell Sharply, While Spot Premiums Strengthened During the Week]: Shanghai spot premiums strengthened this week, with the weekly average price up 20 yuan/mt WoW. As of this Friday, ordinary domestic brands were quoted at discounts of 30 yuan/mt to 20 yuan/mt against the 2604 contract, while the high-priced brand Shuangyan was quoted at a premium of 50 yuan/mt against the 2604 contract.

This week, ferrous metals fluctuated at highs, with raw material ore and coking products outperforming steel. Against the backdrop of the escalating conflict in the Middle East, ore and coking products held up well, supported by higher shipping costs and transmission from coal and coke as energy substitutes. In the second half of the week, supply and demand data for hot-rolled coil and rebar were released. The increase in rebar inventory slowed markedly; however, hot-rolled coil demand was lower than the same period last year, and the pace of post-holiday recovery was relatively slow, leaving steel as a whole with limited upward momentum, while futures retreated after rapid rise. In the spot market, trading in the Chinese market was average this week.....

This week, prices of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China strengthened to 10,000-10,100 yuan/mt; prices of stainless steel scrap off-cuts of the same specification in Foshan also rose, with the price range at 9,600-9,900 yuan/mt. In terms of raw material production costs, the current cost of producing stainless steel entirely from stainless steel scrap was about 14,098.03 yuan/mt, while the cost of production using only high-grade NPI was 14,786.98 yuan/mt. This week, stainless steel scrap prices fell back, mainly driven by macro sentiment disruptions, weak futures, and pressure on both supply and demand. Escalating geopolitical conflicts, coupled with hawkish remarks from the US Fed, dragged SS futures into the doldrums overall, with the bearish impact directly transmitted to the spot market. Stainless steel finished product prices also pulled back across the board, and market pessimism gradually spread. Prices of substitute raw materials also pulled back, while stainless steel mills showed a strong inclination to push for lower prices. NPI traders turned weaker in sentiment and sold at low prices, and the high-grade NPI market also softened. In addition, Tsingshan's April tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome was set low, not only below previous market expectations but also lower than current retail quotations, limiting room for ferrochrome prices to rise and eliminating the support from substitute raw materials for stainless steel scrap. Currently, inventory at stainless steel scrap yards remained relatively high. Coupled with tight tax invoice availability, stainless steel mills were not active in procurement tenders, and the procurement pace continued to slow down. Amid the resonance of multiple bearish factors, stainless steel scrap prices fell in line with futures and finished products. Although stainless steel scrap still maintained a clear economic advantage over high-grade NPI, under the overall weak market atmosphere, cost support was difficult to translate into price support and failed to reverse the downward price trend. Overall, the stainless steel scrap market this week showed a weak pattern of "futures drag, weaker raw materials, and pressure on supply and demand." In the short term, bearish factors are expected to dominate, and stainless steel scrap prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.