[6.1 Morning Meeting Minutes] Currently, the stainless steel market has fully entered the traditional consumption off-season, with continued weak downstream demand. Despite stainless steel enterprises generally facing losses, some steel mills have also launched production cut plans. However, due to the large production base in the early stage, the current supply scale remains at a historical high, leading to a significant oversupply situation in the market. The pressure on traders to sell goods has surged. To alleviate inventory pressure, some merchants have been forced to offer discounts for sales promotions, further strengthening the market's pessimistic expectations.

SMM Nickel News on June 9: Macro News: (1) On Friday, data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the US added 139,000 non-farm payrolls in May, exceeding market expectations of 130,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%, in line with market expectations. The average hourly earnings in May increased by 0.4% MoM, higher than the previous 0.2% and the expected 0.3%, and up 3.9% YoY, higher than the previous 3.8% and the expected 3.7%. The labor force participation rate fell to 62.4% from 62.6% the previous month. Trump commented on the non-farm payrolls data: "The employment data is impressive, and the stock market is soaring!" He once again called for Powell to cut interest rates by 100 basis points. (2) According to customs statistics, in the first five months of 2025, the total value of China's import and export of goods trade was 17.94 trillion yuan, up 2.5% YoY (the same hereinafter). Exports were 10.67 trillion yuan, up 7.2%, while imports were 7.27 trillion yuan, down 3.8%. In May, the total value of China's import and export of goods trade was 3.81 trillion yuan, up 2.7%. Exports were 2.28 trillion yuan, up 6.3%, while imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, down 2.1%. Spot Market: Today, the SMM 1# refined nickel price was 122,600-125,200 yuan/mt, with an average price of 123,900 yuan/mt, up 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for spot premiums of mainstream Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 2,300-2,500 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,400 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for premiums and discounts of mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel was -50-300 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2507) has recently shown a rebound after overselling. As of 11:30, SHFE nickel closed at 122,850 yuan/mt, up 710 yuan from the previous trading day, a gain of 0.58%. The recent decline in domestic nickel inventory, coupled with bears reducing their positions and exiting the market, were the main driving factors. However, the resistance level at 123,000 yuan/mt has not yet been breached. Positive signals have been released from China-US economic and trade consultations. Expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts are diverging, but the weak demand situation is difficult to improve. The supply surplus continues to suppress the upside room for nickel prices. In the short term, nickel prices may fluctuate rangebound between 118,000-123,000 yuan/mt.

The sharp fluctuations in nickel prices in May were mainly due to macro disturbances. After excluding abnormal disturbances in the candlestick, SHFE nickel futures prices mainly showed a slow decline under the dual pressures of "weak fundamentals" and "high inventory".

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,583.0/mt, touching a low of $9,571.0/mt at the beginning of the session.

[Minutes of the Morning Meeting on May 28] Supply side, some nickel salt smelters maintained stable quotes, while others raised their quote coefficients due to increased demand and limited raw material inventory. Looking ahead, next week is a traditional procurement period. Considering factors such as the market demand recovery in June and the cost support for nickel salts, it is expected that nickel salt prices will rise next week.

SMM Nickel News on May 23: Macro News: (1) Yu Weining, a statistician from the Industrial Statistics Department of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), stated that the profit growth of industrial enterprises accelerated. From January to April, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.4%, accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the January-March period, continuing the trend of recovery and improvement. By industry, among the 41 major industrial sectors, 23 sectors saw year-on-year profit growth, accounting for nearly 60% of the total. In April, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide increased by 3.0% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.4 percentage points compared to March. (2) On May 26, Moody's Investors Service released a report, deciding to maintain China's sovereign credit rating at "A1" and its negative outlook unchanged. Relevant officials from the Ministry of Finance stated that since the fourth quarter of last year, the Chinese government has implemented a package of macroeconomic regulatory policies, leading to a recovery and improvement in economic indicators, stable market expectations and confidence, and enhanced medium- and long-term debt sustainability. Moody's decision to maintain China's sovereign credit rating stable is a positive reflection of China's promising economic outlook. Spot Market: Today, the SMM #1 refined nickel price is 122,150-124,450 yuan/mt, with an average price of 123,300 yuan/mt, down 850 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel is 2,100-2,300 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,200 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The premiums and discounts quotation range for Russian nickel is 100-400 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 250 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2507) fluctuated downward, with prices continuously declining in the morning session, hitting a low of 122,150 yuan/mt, before rebounding slightly. As of 11:30, the closing price was 122,550 yuan/mt, down 0.38%. In terms of inventory, as of May 23, LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,274 mt to 198,636 mt on a single-day basis, while SMM refined nickel social inventory across six locations decreased by 1,762 mt WoW to 42,389 mt, both showing destocking. In the short term, nickel prices are subject to a dual tug-of-war between cost support and supply-demand surplus, and are expected to remain in the doldrums within the 121,000-127,000 yuan/mt range. On the macro front, attention should still be paid to the impact of uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies on the market. The marginal effect of the China-US tariff reduction agreement has weakened, and the US threat to impose a 50% tariff on the EU will trigger market risk-averse sentiment.

[5.27 Morning Meeting Minutes] Philippine nickel ore prices remain firm, imposing a significant cost burden on smelters, with domestic production continuing to operate at a low level. In Indonesia, the latest round of HPM for domestic trade nickel ore has seen only a slight decline. Coupled with the generally stable with slight rise in order negotiation premiums, the low finished product prices have led to a situation where smelters are operating at a loss. It is expected that production will decrease slightly. Demand side, the mainstream stainless steel mills' plate prices remained flat WoW. Market transactions are mainly conducted at low prices. Downstream demand has been impacted by tariff changes and the current off-season in the stainless steel market. Steel mills have weak purchase willingness for high-grade NPI. However, supported by underlying costs and the fact that market liquidity has not improved, the price center has risen slightly.

SMM Nickel News on May 23: Macro News: (1) Trump has reopened a 90-day window for trade negotiations with the EU, after von der Leyen took the initiative to contact him. Previously, Trump had stated that discussions with the EU had made no progress and suggested imposing a 50% tariff on the EU starting from June 1. The European Commission refused to comment on US trade tariffs until the EU Trade Commissioner had a phone call with the US Trade Representative. US Treasury Secretary Bessent claimed that the 50% tariff threat was a response to the EU's pace of action, hoping it would incentivize the EU to take action. (2) Fed's Goolsbee: A 50% tariff on the EU is an order of magnitude different from the current situation, and such a high tariff level would severely impact the supply chain. In the short term, the Fed needs to wait for the situation to clarify, and the threshold for action is high before that. There is still a possibility of an interest rate cut within the next 10-16 months. Spot Market: Today, the SMM 1# refined nickel price is 122,950-125,350 yuan/mt, with an average price of 124,150 yuan/mt, a decrease of 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel is 2,100-2,300 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,200 yuan/mt, an increase of 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The premiums and discounts quotation range for Russian nickel is 100-400 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 250 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2506) continues to exhibit a fluctuating trend within a narrow range. As of 11:30, the closing price is 122,960 yuan/mt, up 0.07%. In terms of inventory, as of May 23, LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,274 mt to 198,636 mt on a single day, and SMM refined nickel social inventory across six locations decreased by 1,762 mt WoW to 42,389 mt, both showing destocking. In the short term, nickel prices are subject to a dual tug-of-war between cost support and supply-demand surplus, and are expected to remain in the doldrums within the 121,000-127,000 yuan/mt range. On the macro side, attention should still be paid to the impact of uncertainties in Trump's tariff policy on the market. The marginal effect of the China-US tariff reduction agreement has weakened, and the US's threat to impose a 50% tariff on the EU will trigger market risk-averse sentiment.

[5.23 Morning Meeting Minutes] Cost side, LME nickel has returned to fundamentals and is in the doldrums, leading to a slight decline in the production costs of nickel salt smelters. Demand side, the overall demand for nickel salt in June is expected to strengthen. Recently, the activity of precursor plants inquiring about nickel salt prices has significantly increased, and their purchase willingness has strengthened. Supply side, some nickel salt smelters have maintained stable quotes, while others have raised their quote coefficients due to increased demand and limited raw material inventory.

SMM Nickel News on May 21: Macro News: (1) On Wednesday local time, the US Treasury Department auctioned off $16 billion in 20-year Treasury bonds. This latest auction was one of the worst-performing for this maturity since its introduction five years ago. The final winning yield for this auction was 5.047%, marking the second time that the yield for a 20-year Treasury bond auction has exceeded the 5% threshold. This winning yield was 24 basis points higher than the 4.810% recorded in April. The auction's winning yield was approximately 1.2 basis points higher than the pre-issue rate of 5.035%, representing the largest tail spread since December last year. Following the auction results, US stocks, Treasury bonds, and Bitcoin all fell. (2) According to foreign media reports, the EU is expected to share a revised trade proposal with the US, aiming to inject momentum into negotiations with the Trump administration, amid ongoing skepticism about the possibility of reaching a transatlantic agreement. According to sources familiar with the matter, the new document includes proposals that consider US interests, including international labor rights, environmental standards, economic security, and a gradual reduction of tariffs to zero on non-sensitive agricultural and industrial products from both sides. The sources said that the document, which was submitted to officials in Washington earlier this week, also outlines mutual investments and strategic procurement in the fields of energy, artificial intelligence, and digital connectivity. The EU aims to cooperate with the US and seek a balanced and mutually beneficial agreement, according to the sources. One of the sources said that the two sides are still studying each other, and the European Commission may need authorization from member states to begin formal negotiations. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick: He hopes to reach trade agreements with most major partners before the tariff suspension expires this summer. Spot Market: Today, the SMM #1 refined nickel price ranges from 123,400 to 125,600 yuan/mt, with an average price of 124,500 yuan/mt, a decrease of 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for the mainstream spot premiums of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel is 2,000-2,200 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,100 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The premiums and discounts quotation range for Russian nickel is 100-300 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 200 yuan/mt, also unchanged from the previous trading day. Recently, trading in the spot market has been mediocre, with most quotations remaining stable. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2506) continued its fluctuating trend, with no significant volatility during the session. As of 11:30, the closing price was 123,370 yuan/mt, up 0.01%. In terms of inventory, as of May 21, LME nickel inventory decreased by 312 mt to 201,786 mt on a single-day basis. Currently, nickel prices are mainly influenced by "intensified policy disruptions and deepened supply-demand imbalance", maintaining a fluctuating trend in the short term, with a support level at 122,000 yuan/mt and a resistance level at 128,000 yuan/mt; the medium and long-term trend is weak.