[SMM Express] African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) has reaffirmed its commitment to long-term growth following board approval of the R15.2 billion Bokoni platinum project and the R753 million restart of the Nkomati nickel mine. Management described Bokoni as a high-grade, low-cost platinum group metals (PGMs) growth platform capable of producing 350,000–400,000 6E PGM ounces annually, supported by existing infrastructure, a 31-million-ounce measured resource and an expected post-tax net present value of R5.9 billion with a projected internal rate of return of 28%. The Nkomati restart is expected to re-establish South Africa's only primary nickel producer, targeting a 5.3-year payback period and a 28.4% internal rate of return. The investment announcement has, however, generated mixed market reactions. ARM shares have declined 21% this year, with some analysts expressing concerns over the timing and scale of the Bokoni investment and its potential impact on near-term cash flow. Others view the projects as a strategic response to tightening South African PGM supply and improving platinum market fundamentals, arguing that ARM's strong balance sheet and the projects' long-term economics could enhance production resilience and shareholder value through future commodity cycles.

​​​​​​​Falling nickel benchmarks, a fragmented overseas supply base and a Malaysian enforcement crackdown lift India's stainless scrap imports 11.4% while pushing the average import price down 6.6% in the 12 months to February 2026

With the booming development of the new energy vehicle industry, China's first wave of power batteries has entered a large-scale retirement phase. Recently, lithium battery recycling projects have been intensively launched across multiple regions nationwide, covering every link of the industrial chain — from dismantling and crushing to hydrometallurgy, from cascade utilization to material regeneration.

With the vigorous development of the NEV industry, China's first batch of power batteries entered a large-scale "retirement period." Recently, lithium battery recycling projects were intensively launched nationwide, from dismantling and crushing to hydrometallurgy, from second-life application to material regeneration, comprehensively accelerating the layout of all links in the industry chain.

Recently, the company and the management committee of Huanggang High-tech Industrial Development Zone, Hubei, held a signing ceremony for the LFP battery circular base project. According to public information, the project adopts the combined "physical dismantling + hydrometallurgy" recycling process. Production lines cover waste LIB dismantling, reduction roasting furnace, carbonization, leaching and purification, extraction, and evaporative crystallization equipment. Final products include battery-grade lithium carbonate, battery-grade nickel sulfate, battery-grade cobalt sulfate, and battery-grade manganese sulfate, achieving closed-loop recycling from waste batteries to high-end battery materials.

SMM reported on July 31: Spot quotes for cobalt-related products continued to decline this week. The spot market demand remained sluggish. Before any concentrated restocking by downstream enterprises, cobalt salt prices showed an overall slow downward trend... SMM compiled the price changes of cobalt-related products this week, as follows: : According to SMM spot quotes, the center of refined cobalt spot quotes continued to shift downward this week. Although it rose by 1,500 yuan/mt on the last trading day, as of July 31, refined cobalt spot quotes were at 338,000-355,000 yuan/mt, with an average of 346,500 yuan/mt, down 3,500 yuan/mt or 1% from 350,000 yuan/mt on July 24. From the supply-demand side, on the supply end, mainstream smelters lowered ex-factory quotes to 355,000 yuan/mt, while other small and medium smelters basically suspended external quotes due to increased loss pressures. After continued destocking in the trade sector, available-for-sale inventories dropped to relatively low levels. Some enterprises, based on bullish expectations for the future, began to slow down their shipment pace, and a few quoting enterprises maintained the spot-futures price spread at a premium of 1,000-10,000 yuan/mt. On the demand side, downstream enterprises were still in the summer break period, with generally weak purchase willingness, only maintaining small-scale rigid restocking. Overall, July-August is the traditional consumption off-season for refined cobalt, with limited demand support. In the short term, prices may continue to be in the doldrums. Cobalt Salt (and ): : According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt sulphate spot quotes continued to fall this week. As of July 31, spot quotes dropped to 81,000-82,000 yuan/mt, with an average of 81,500 yuan/mt, down 1,500 yuan/mt or 1.81% from 83,000 yuan/mt on July 24. SMM learned that the divergence between upstream and downstream for cobalt sulphate further intensified this week, with limited actual trading. On the supply side, primary smelters using intermediate products and MHP, supported by costs, still held firm quotes above 80,000 yuan/mt. Recyclers, leveraging raw material cost advantages, concentrated their quotes in the 76,000-78,000 yuan/mt range, with a few aggressive sellers able to go below 75,000 yuan/mt. The demand side remained sluggish, with downstream enterprises showing insufficient purchase willingness and leaning toward non-standard or old cargo sources to lower procurement costs. Recently, there were transactions of substandard goods and old cargo below 73,000 yuan/mt. Adjusted for quality, the actual price difference from new products was limited. However, in a weak demand environment, this price level was used by downstream as a bargaining benchmark, forcing some recyclers to passively follow suit. Moreover, after the sustained drop in refined cobalt, the cost of producing cobalt sulphate through re-dissolution fell to 72,000-73,000 yuan/mt, further strengthening downstream pressure for lower prices. In the short term, the cobalt salt market shows a slow downward trend. A stabilization and recovery will have to wait for the release of concentrated downstream restocking demand, which is expected to occur no earlier than mid-to-late August . : According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt chloride spot quotes continued to fall this week. After dropping 3,000 yuan/mt on the last trading day, spot quotes fell to 95,000-98,000 yuan/mt, with an average of 96,500 yuan/mt, a decline of 3.02% from 99,500 yuan/mt on July 24. In the spot market, SMM learned that the cobalt chloride market remained sluggish this week, with trading at minimal levels. On the supply side, from a real-time cost perspective, the cost of recycled materials and the re-smelting path for refined cobalt were already significantly lower than current market and actual trading prices. The key factor affecting enterprise pricing was that upstream smelters generally held large-scale inventories, mostly high-cost, and faced with a continuously falling market, it was difficult to lower average costs through low-price procurement. Therefore, high-cost inventory provided some support to quotes, which remained relatively firm. However, at the same time, some enterprises had already begun to gradually lower quotes to promote shipments, trying to spread out earlier losses by accelerating turnover. Yet, downstream absorption capacity was extremely limited, and even price reductions could not lead to volume trading. On the demand side, Co3O4 enterprises themselves had high inventory levels, with no signs of demand growth, and current purchase willingness was very low. Overall, in the short term, cobalt chloride prices still have downside room. : According to SMM spot quotes, Co3O4 spot quotes also showed a downward trend this week. As of July 31, spot quotes fell to 300,000-320,000 yuan/mt, with an average of 310,000 yuan/mt, down 10,000 yuan/mt or 3.13% from 320,000 yuan/mt on July 24. In the spot market, SMM learned that the Co3O4 market was also quiet this week, with low trading volumes. On the supply side, with high inventory levels, enterprises faced the dilemma of thin profits under current raw material cost accounting and the risk of inventory buildup, so they generally kept production at lower levels. Although there were occasional rumors of ultra-low-priced cargo, based on communications with various parties, the existence of some ultra-low-price deals was not denied, but they were not enough to represent the mainstream market. On the demand side, cathode plants had some inquiries, but actual purchases were limited. Current raw material inventories were sufficient to support production, with no urgent restocking needs. Overall, Co3O4 prices also have the potential to further decline in the short term. On the news front, in corporate developments, Chengtun Mining released its H1 2026 report, mentioning that the company achieved revenue of 19.264 billion yuan in H1, up 39.56% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm was 1.804 billion yuan, up 71.37% YoY. Chengtun Mining stated that during the reporting period, its energy metal business achieved revenue of 14.543 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 27.03%, basically consistent with the previous year. In H1 2026, copper production was 133,200 mt in metal content, cobalt production 3,700 mt in metal content, and nickel production 21,200 mt in metal content. Copper-cobalt segment: ① During the reporting period, the company's DRC copper-cobalt segment achieved stable output, with copper production reaching 132,200 mt in metal content, of which Xiongdi Mining achieved 74,400 mt in metal content. The company addressed the power shortage issue through a multi-type energy combination, building a modern energy system integrating specialization, intensification, and integration, boosting both operational efficiency and scale. ② Dali Sanxin actively advanced mine construction, aiming for trial production in Q4. Currently, land and other related procedures have been completed, well engineering is basically finished, and surface civil engineering construction is being actively promoted. ③ In April 2026, the company disclosed the planned acquisition of a 50% stake in Nkoyi Leopard Mining and Investment Limited, to indirectly obtain a 30% interest in a large specific copper-cobalt mining right. The deal was completed in July 2026, and cooperation on the mine is proceeding normally. During the reporting period, the company actively sought sustainable resource guarantees through exploration in potential areas and pursuing extensive copper resource M&A and cooperation. Furthermore, CNGR also released its H1 2026 performance forecast, expecting net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm in H1 2026 to be in the range of 1.25-1.35 billion yuan, up 70.58%-84.23% YoY. Regarding the reasons for the performance change, CNGR stated that during the reporting period, the company seized the high-development opportunities in the global new energy industry and, leveraging its leading position in the battery materials field, achieved total sales of core products such as nickel-based, cobalt-based, phosphorus-based, and sodium-based materials exceeding 250,000 mt. By segment, ternary cathode precursor sales grew over 50% YoY in H1, with stable overall gross margin, further solidifying its industry-leading position; phosphorus-based material sales grew over 25% YoY, with profitability elasticity significantly released, successfully turning losses into profits; and sodium-ion battery precursor material sales maintained a high growth trend, continuing its industry leadership. Additionally, the company's upstream resource layout yielded notable results, with investment income from laterite nickel ore steadily increasing; the Indonesian pyrometallurgy nickel smelting project, with its cost advantages, effectively hedged local policy changes and maintained excellent profitability. Overall, the company's "resource + smelting + materials" entire industry chain integration advantage continued to deepen, with all business segments working synergistically to build a safety margin and anti-cyclical resilience for its operations.

[SMM Analysis] Off-season Stainless Steel Prices and Costs Fluctuate Limitedly, Steel Mill Profits Basically Stable This week, stainless steel finished product prices remained stable, while production costs edged up slightly but with limited gains, resulting in basically stable overall smelting profits at steel mills. Based on 304 cold-rolling calculations, this week’s profit margins stood at 2.01% when using current raw materials and 2.15% when using inventory raw materials, indicating that stainless steel mills still retained certain smelting profits. On the nickel raw material side, high-grade NPI prices rose and strengthened this week. Shipment disruptions of Indonesian high-grade NPI, combined with month-end restocking purchases by some stainless steel mills and relatively optimistic market expectations for forward NPI prices, drove the price increase. Although mainstream stainless steel mills currently hold sufficient nickel pig iron raw material inventories and spot purchases remained weak, forward order transactions recovered significantly, pushing prices higher. As of this Friday, the delivered duty-paid price of Indonesia-origin high-grade NPI with 10-12% nickel content in China rose by 4 yuan/nickel unit to 1,136.5 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap prices remained stable this week, with limited impact from futures consolidation and a slight recovery in NPI. Compared to nickel pig iron, the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap became more apparent, providing solid bottom support for prices; expectations of steel mill production resumptions in August also lent positive support. However, narrow profit margins at steel mills and weak end-use demand made cost pass-through difficult, significantly capping the upside room for prices. Overall, in the short term, stainless steel scrap will maintain a consolidating pattern supported by cost advantages and production resumption expectations, with limited overall upside room. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts in the Shanghai area rose by 200 yuan/mt to 10,450 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw materials…

This week, nickel prices drifted higher overall. On the macro front, the US Fed's July FOMC meeting voted 9:3 to hold rates steady, in line with market expectations, but internal dissent intensified—three voting members backed a rate hike. The US June PCE price index fell 0.1% MoM, the first monthly negative print since 2020. Industry-wise, the window for Indonesia's RKAB quota revision filings officially closed on July 31, US-Iran tensions fluctuated, and the marginal pressure from tight sulfur supply eased after initial tightness. LME nickel inventory dropped by a cumulative total of over 8,000 mt in July, offering additional support for nickel prices. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 132,250 yuan/mt this week, up 250 yuan/mt WoW. Jinchuan refined nickel premiums weakened continuously this week, falling to 1,200 yuan/mt, while mainstream electrodeposited nickel discounts ranged from -300 to -500 yuan/mt. Spot market trading remained sluggish this week, with weak downstream inquiry interest. Macro front, the central event this week was the US Fed's July FOMC meeting. On July 30, the US Fed announced it would maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, matching market expectations. This marked the fifth consecutive meeting since September 2025 that the Fed held rates unchanged. The main takeaway from this meeting was a notable escalation in internal division—the vote was 9:3, with three voting members favoring a 25bp rate hike. The US June PCE price index fell 0.1% MoM, the first monthly negative print since 2020; the YoY increase narrowed to 3.7% from 4.1% the prior month. Core PCE YoY growth edged down to 3.3% from 3.4%, rising only 0.1% MoM, below the 0.2% market expectation. Cooling inflation was driven by retreating oil prices in June, but with US-Iran tensions escalating in July, inflation expectations are likely to prove stubborn. Inventory side, this week, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory stood at roughly 1,700 mt, flat WoW. China's social inventory was approximately 131,000 mt, with a WoW buildup of about 1,600 mt. Nickel prices are currently in a bullish resonance window, marked by improving macro sentiment, confirmed supply tightening, and marginal inventory destocking. In the short term, the core trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract next week is expected to be 130,000-137,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Consolidate on a Strong Note, Stainless Steel Month-End Spot High Prices See Sluggish Transactions According to SMM on July 31, SS futures consolidated on a strong note overall. Driven by successive pullbacks in the US dollar index, nonferrous metals futures strengthened across the board, and SS rose in tandem. At the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,635 yuan/mt. On the spot market, SS futures shot up at the morning open and then gradually pulled back in consolidation. Although the morning strength in futures drove spot prices higher, high-priced transactions were not smooth. Some traders offered concessions under month-end shipment pressure, and market transactions were dominated by just-in-time procurement. The most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2609 was quoted at 14,710 yuan/mt, up 110 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 310-710 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi rose 100 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi rose 50 yuan/mt and in Foshan rose 25 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, Wuxi quote flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan was flat. This week, macro sentiment turned bearish and dominated metal price trends. Stainless steel futures were under pressure and consolidated on a subdued note. This week, the US Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected at its meeting, but its overall tone was hawkish. Commodity valuations came under broad pressure, and the nonferrous metals sector weakened across the board. Dragged by the spillover of macro headwinds, SS futures...

On July 30, 2026, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) issued an announcement abolishing the second-life application clauses in the Industry Standard Conditions for Comprehensive Utilization of Used NEV Power Batteries (2024 Edition). It will no longer carry out announcement management for second-life battery producers, and all such producers previously included in the announcement list were removed.