SMM, June 18: The Regulations for the Implementation of the Mineral Resources Law of the People's Republic of China, which took effect on June 15, listed 36 types of minerals, including rare earths, tungsten, lithium, cobalt, gallium, and germanium, as national-level strategic minerals, subjecting them to full-chain, high-intensity control. The prices of Pr-Nd oxide, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide saw their third consecutive daily increase on June 17; Orient Zirconium issued a price adjustment notice, raising the prices of its related zirconium products effective June 18, 2026; and the favor of some market funds all contributed to the opening strength of the minor metal sector. As of around 9:57 on June 18, the minor metal industry sector rose by 3.09%. In terms of individual stocks: Orient Zirconium, Shenghe Resources, and Zhongxi Nonferrous hit the daily limit; China Rare Earth, Jintian Titanium, China Northern Rare Earth, China Tungsten High-Tech, Tin Industry Co., and Yunnan Germanium led the gains. Market News Orient Zirconium raised the prices of its related zirconium products effective June 18, 2026 On June 18, Orient Zirconium issued a product price adjustment notice. The notice indicated that based on current market conditions, Orient Zirconium decided to raise the prices of its related zirconium products starting from June 18, 2026, with the price adjustments as follows: zirconium oxychloride products (including mother liquor materials) increased by 1,500 yuan/mt; zirconium dioxide products increased by 4,500 yuan/mt; fused zirconium products increased by 2,000 yuan/mt; at the same time, the prices of other zirconium series products from Orient Zirconium will be adjusted accordingly. [Aidite: The company has already laid out a powder substitute plan and fully implemented it; the new material can replace the original imported powder] On June 17, Aidite stated on an interactive platform while answering investor questions that the company had received a notice from Japan's Tosoh regarding the suspension of zirconia powder supply. To ensure the stability of its own supply, the company had already laid out a powder substitute plan and fully implemented it; the new material can replace the original imported powder, and the entire new product line has passed rigorous customer verification. Currently, several core major clients have completed the switch and signed long-term orders at the recent dealer conference. The company will actively take a series of measures to avoid any adverse impact from the Japanese powder supply disruption. In the future, the company will seize the window of opportunity for high-quality material breakthroughs and, leveraging its technical and delivery advantages, continue to expand its market share. Spot Market Zirconium According to the SMM price assessment, on June 18, the price of zirconium oxychloride (Zr(Hf)O2≥36%) was quoted at 17,500-18,000 yuan/mt, with an average of 17,750 yuan/mt, up 5.97% from the previous trading day. The zirconium industry chain had long been under pressure, with sluggish traditional demand from ceramics and high industry inventories. Zircon sand and zirconium oxide prices persistently hovered at lows, trading was sluggish, and the market was at the bottom of the cycle. Since entering Q2 this year, driven by export controls on zirconium products to Japan, price hikes by overseas zirconium ore producers, and demand expectations for solid-state batteries, zirconium raw material prices stopped falling and stabilized, inventories destocked, and the industry moved out of the bottom range, embarking on a volatile recovery trend. Upstream zircon sand imports have tightened, overseas miners continue to raise prices, and cost support has been strengthening. Dongfang Zirconium Industry completed a round of price hikes in April and raised zirconium product prices again on June 18. For the zirconium market outlook, supported by tightening raw material supply, zirconium prices will hold up well in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to changes in raw material supply and downstream demand. Rare Earth In the rare earth market: Rare earth oxide prices were relatively stable overall, but downstream purchasing activity has decreased as the holiday approaches. Pr-Nd oxide and dysprosium oxide ended their three-day winning streak and both pulled back slightly on June 18, while terbium oxide prices held steady on June 18 after a previous three-day rise. Expectations for production cuts in the scrap recycling sector and news-driven factors previously drove Pr-Nd prices, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide higher. However, after the afternoon session on June 17, shipments of Pr-Nd oxide from traders increased slightly, and the center of the actual trading range shifted lower. For medium-heavy rare earths, oxide suppliers held firm offer prices, but actual buying from metal enterprises was limited, and downstream magnetic material enterprises showed limited acceptance of high metal prices. Affected by the stalemate in market trading, rare earth prices are expected to move sideways in the short term. Tin Additionally, in the tin market: On June 18, the average price of SMM 1# tin fell 0.93% from the previous trading day. Driven by the US Fed keeping rates unchanged but signaling a hawkish bias, with half of policymakers expecting rate hikes this year, nonferrous metals fell overall and tin prices also pulled back. Currently, on the fundamental side: (1) Supply side: In June, most smelters focused on maintaining stable production. (2) Demand side: Downstream purchases were cautious, buying according to orders. Spot market: Overall trading sentiment in the spot market was light. Although tin prices have pulled back, they remain at relatively high levels and the holiday is approaching. Additionally, as the electronics industry enters its traditional off-season, downstream enterprises such as solder makers are only purchasing on a "buy on dips for essential needs" basis. Institutional Views Guojin Securities’ research report on June 14 showed: Rare Earth: Dysprosium oxide may benefit from the boost by MLCC, with a significant rebound trend from price lows. From the start of the year, the price center has continued to rise. We believe this is likely related to supply-side documents released in 2024-2025, with ongoing supply-side reform in the industry. Exports fell 1% YoY for full-year 2025, while exports from early 2026 to date have increased significantly, indicating strong restocking demand outside China. The rare earth sector will continue to see dual improvements in valuation and performance, and 2026 is also a key year for resolving industry competition among key targets. On the resource side, attention is recommended for China Rare Earth (medium-heavy rare earth leader, biggest beneficiary of supply-side reform), Zhongxi Nonferrous (undervalued, high-growth South China rare earth leader), and China Northern Rare Earth (light rare earth leader, with significant cost advantages); other related targets include Bao Gang United Steel, JL MAG Rare-Earth, etc. Tin: It believes that invisible inventory of tin ingots is gradually drying up, so tin prices are expected to strengthen under the backfill of macro liquidity or spillover from tech markets. The supply-demand pattern for tin will improve in the long term. Tungsten: This period, tungsten prices continued their rebound trend. It believes that against the backdrop of increased strategic stockpiling outside China, tungsten may have higher priority; tungsten's supply-demand fundamentals have seen strong resonance. Molybdenum: The destocking of imported ore has been significant, and domestic molybdenum prices have stabilized and rebounded. Steel procurement volume remains robust, destocking along the industry chain is progressing, and the deadlock of molybdenum prices with "volume but no price" is gradually being broken, with the upward channel becoming clearer. Molybdenum is also a military metal, with persistently low inventory, and increased defense spending outside China may further boost molybdenum prices. Huafu Securities’ research report on June 14 showed: Other Minor Metals: Industry leaders' long-term contract performance was impressive, and market sentiment in tungsten clearly stabilized. The tungsten market overall has walked out of a mild recovery, with the previous consolidation at lows being reversed somewhat. Industry leaders' long-term contract transactions were impressive, serving as a key driver for the upward movement in futures, and overall market sentiment clearly stabilized. However, the spot and scattered cargo atmosphere remained mediocre, with no widespread price-following adjustments upstream or downstream, and the rebound pace was gentle, with the market overall in a stage of steady recovery. Open Source Securities' 2026 mid-year investment strategy for the metals industry showed: Copper: Supply side, most miners outside China still face declining grades and recovery rates, and disruptive factors persist (Ivanhoe’s KK copper mine, Codelco’s El Teniente copper mine). While Chinese enterprises are increasing output, the overall increase is limited. Under an optimistic scenario, global supply growth may be below 2% in 2026-2027. Demand side, H1 electricity demand in China and the US maintained high growth rates, which may contribute marginal increments to copper demand. Open Source Securities believes that the supply-demand structure contradiction for copper will further highlight in 2026, supporting the rise in copper price center. Lithium: On the supply side of the lithium industry, capital spending cuts and the gradual formation of supply discipline, coupled with frequent disruptions, have led to a marked decline in supply elasticity compared with the past. Meanwhile, sustained strong demand from the energy storage sector is improving the structure of lithium demand, while industry inventory pressure is easing marginally. Lithium prices are expected to see a phased recovery. Enterprises with advantages in resource security, low costs and integrated layout are likely to show stronger earnings recovery than the industry average. Lithium mines and lithium chemicals companies with high resource self-sufficiency and strong cost control deserve attention. Tungsten: As an advantaged strategic metal in China, tungsten mine supply is constrained by resource depletion, environmental protection and other factors. Together with the total mining volume control implemented by the state, tungsten mine production release is limited. On the demand side, emerging sectors are boosting tungsten demand, which is expected to support tungsten prices over the long term. Recommended reading:

[SMM Analysis] Sulfur Price Outlook: The Game Between Geopolitical Premium Fade and Supply Recovery Lag

SMM Nickel June 18 News: Macro and Market News: (1) At 02:00 a.m. Beijing Time on Thursday, the US Fed unanimously decided to keep the benchmark interest rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the fourth consecutive hold. (2) Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said that the text of the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the US has been finalized and signed by both sides. Spot Market: On June 18, SMM #1 refined nickel price rose 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel stood at 1,400 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day, while the premium range for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands was -600 to 400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2607 contract fluctuated downward in the morning session, closing the morning session at 135,290 yuan/mt, down 0.38%. The Fed’s June rate decision kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, but the dot plot showed half of the officials expect at least one rate hike this year; the dollar strengthened, weighing on the entire metals complex. The US-Iran agreement officially took effect, the Strait of Hormuz is about to reopen, and sulfur cost support for nickel prices weakened. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to trade in the range of 133,000-140,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Flash News]SMM learned that as of Thursday, June 18, total zinc ingot inventory across SMM's seven regions stood at 268,000 mt, up 3,400 mt from June 11 and up 2,200 mt from June 15. Domestic inventory increased.

(Kitco News) - The gold market continues to regain lost ground, and although the precious metal isn’t out of danger just yet, current prices still represent an attractive entry point for investors looking to build a position, according to Wells Fargo. In the bank’s mid-year outlook webinar, Sameer Samana, Head of Global Equities and Real Assets Strategy, said there is still a risk that gold prices could fall below $4,000 per ounce, but he is maintaining a long-term bullish outlook. On Tuesday, the bank raised its year-end gold target to $5,300-$5,500 an ounce and expects prices to climb further to $5,800-$6,000 by the end of 2027. The bank's strategists argue that the forces driving gold's rally are structural rather than cyclical, suggesting the current bull market still has room to run. Gold remains one of Wells Fargo's highest-conviction investment ideas, as the bank sees persistent inflation pressures, rising government debt, and elevated geopolitical uncertainty continuing to support the precious metal through 2027. "We firmly believe that gold is that additional diversifier," said Samana. "More and more in this highly uncertain world, central banks are looking around for something in addition to U.S. Treasuries and cash with respect to where to park their reserves." The outlook comes as gold continues to recover from a sharp correction after posting strong gains over the past two years, culminating in a record high in January. Spot gold last traded at $4,357.10 an ounce, up 0.61% on the day. However, gold prices are still down more than 20% from their highs at the start of the year. During the webinar, Chief Investment Officer Darrell Cronk described 2026 as being driven by "geopolitics, geography and geology," highlighting ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe alongside intensifying competition for critical resources. He said these trends are helping to reshape global investment flows and support demand for real assets. While Wells Fargo expects inflation to moderate somewhat in the second half of the year, the bank does not see a return to the low-inflation environment that characterized the decade before the pandemic. Inflation has been supported by tariffs, higher energy costs, and growing artificial intelligence-related demand, according to Cronk. That inflation outlook is one reason Wells Fargo remains skeptical that long-term Treasury yields will fall significantly from current levels. During the briefing, Cronk argued that markets continue to underestimate the impact of persistent inflation and rising fiscal deficits on bond yields. "I think the market has gotten interest rates wrong for some time now," he said, noting that Wells Fargo entered the year expecting Treasury yields to remain higher than Wall Street consensus forecasts. He added that inflation premiums, term premiums, and growth expectations all point to long-term yields remaining elevated. Those dynamics could prove particularly supportive for gold . Responding to a question about whether inflation could outpace bond yields and potentially push real yields lower, Cronk said the Federal Reserve remains constrained by its dual mandate and is unlikely to aggressively tighten policy unless inflation accelerates materially. While Wells Fargo expects inflation to cool somewhat as energy markets stabilize, the bank sees continued pressure from fiscal spending and structural investment trends. Samana said that this environment creates a compelling asymmetric opportunity for gold investors. "To me, it's one of the highest-convexity ideas that we have," he said. "For gold to not do well, you would need countries around the world to rein in their deficits and defend price stability. The fact that policymakers will always take the easy way out, to me, is the case for gold ." He added that while gold could experience periodic pullbacks, the long-term risk-reward profile remains attractive. "I think eventually you're seeing something with a six handle out in 2027," Samana said, referring to Wells Fargo's expectation that gold prices could surpass $6,000 an ounce over the next 18 months. Beyond gold , Wells Fargo is also constructive on industrial metals, arguing that artificial intelligence infrastructure spending, data center construction, and global electrification trends should continue to support demand for copper and other key materials. The bank expects both precious and industrial metals to benefit from the global race to secure strategic resources and build next-generation technologies. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-17/golds-bull-market-has-room-run-inflation-risks-fiscal-deficits-support

(Kitco News) – Even when real yields decline and the dollar weakens, gold prices could struggle to catch a bid as strong equity markets will continue to draw investors to risk assets, according to commodity analysts at Société Générale. The French banking giant cautioned that gold investors may be in for an extended period of muted ETF flows combined with a pause in central bank purchases. “The market is finely balanced, and the path of monetary policy remains the key variable for gold through its impact on real rates and the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset,” they wrote. “Our analyst’s central scenario is driven by persistent inflation, oil-driven price shocks and a clear ‘higher for-longer’ rates regime.” SocGen analysts expect the world’s major central banks will remain cautious, with “the Fed on hold, the ECB still leaning hawkish, and the BoJ gradually tightening.” Going forward, the analysts see two potential macroeconomic paths. The first is “an AI-led, inflationary growth cycle keeping policy tight,” while the second involves “an energy-driven stagflation shock, particularly in the event of prolonged supply disruptions.” “Our analysts expect inflation across the US and Europe to stay elevated into early 2027 before moderating, providing only temporary support to gold’s hedge appeal,” they warned. “Crucially, they view policy stability rather than easing as the baseline, limiting upside for gold in the near term.” SocGen said they do expect some support to emerge later “as real yields gradually decline and the USD initially softens,” but they warned that even then, gold’s upside will be limited by “resilient global growth, strong equity markets and a continued investor preference for risk assets.” “On the demand side, subdued ETF inflows and constrained central bank activity limit the strength of financial demand, though a recovery is anticipated into 2027,” they added. “Physical demand, particularly jewellery, shows resilience in value terms and could provide marginal support as prices consolidate.” Source: https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-17/persistent-inflation-oil-driven-price-shocks-and-higher-longer-rates-will

Published: Jun 16, 2026 - 11:32 PM (Kitco News) – Gold’s 26% decline during the Iran conflict came from a boost to the dollar, yields and equities which overwhelmed the yellow metal's safe-haven appeal, but persistent inflation, policy uncertainty and central bank demand remain intact, and gold prices will still reach nearly $4,800 in 2026 and $4,900 in 2027, according to Barclays. In a research note published Monday, the UK banking giant’s cross-asset research team led by Lefteris Farmakis and Themistoklis Fiotakis said gold’s three-month selloff was driven by the stronger U.S. dollar, white-hot equity markets absorbing all the available risk capital, and the unwinding of leveraged gold positions, with Russian and Turkish central bank gold sales also contributing to the weakness. The analysts said gold’s slide from its January peak to its June trough reflected a normalization of real interest rates, markets pricing out Fed rate cuts this year, and the short-term appeal of rising stocks detracting from gold’s investment appeal. The Barclays team calculated that the rise in the dollar index and the 10% S&P 500 rally accounted for 10% of the gold price decline, with the remainder coming from position unwinding in the metals markets. The analysts said these factors are temporary, however, and that gold’s structural drivers — persistent inflation, policy uncertainty and continued reserve diversification — are still intact, and they will reassert themselves as the geopolitical stress related to the Hormuz crisis dissipates. They characterized these drivers as “slow-moving variables whose influence accumulates over time,” which is why they were ill-suited to support gold prices during the short-term shock of the Iranian crisis. Barclays calculated that every percentage-point increase in inflation gives gold a 5% uplift, and they believe the inflationary impulse of the Iran energy shock will be supportive. The bank estimates gold’s fair value price currently sits at $4,150 per ounce, and they expect a rebound now that the Iran conflict appears to be winding down. The Barclays team said they now anticipate a reassertion of the dollar’s downward trend, a return to consistent central bank buying and sustained upward pressure on inflation from higher energy prices. Barclays said they are maintaining their 2026 and 2027 gold price forecasts at $4,791 and $4,900 per ounce, but warned that there may still be some short-term mark-to-market downside. The analysts also recommended exposure to gold mining stocks, including Endeavour, Hochschild, Fresnillo, Newmont and Agnico Eagle. “Recent price gyrations notwithstanding, if there is a period when gold ought to be trading at a premium, it is now,” they said. Source: https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-16/barclays-sees-gold-hitting-4791-2026-4900-2027-iran-correction-fades

Published: Jun 16, 2026 - 2:00 PM (Kitco News) - Central bank demand has been a solid pillar of support for the gold market as prices pushed to all-time highs at the start of the year. According to the latest report from the World Gold Council, official-sector demand is expected to remain robust for the foreseeable future. The WGC 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey, published Tuesday, showed that 89% of reserve managers expect global central bank gold holdings to increase over the next 12 months, while a record 45% expect their own institutions to add to their reserves. The survey comes at a historic moment for the precious metal. The WGC noted that gold recently surpassed U.S. Treasuries to become the world's largest reserve asset, underscoring a dramatic shift in how official institutions are managing their wealth. In an interview with Kitco News, Shaokai Fan, Global Head of Central Banks at the World Gold Council, said the survey demonstrates that official-sector confidence in gold remains exceptionally strong. "Central banks are still very positive on gold. In fact, more positive than ever," Fan said, noting that the percentage of respondents planning to increase their gold reserves rose to a record 45% this year from 43% in 2025, despite ongoing geopolitical turmoil. The survey itself suggests that central bankers increasingly view gold as a strategic monetary asset rather than a passive legacy holding. Eighty-four percent of respondents expect gold to represent a larger share of global reserves within five years, while 74% expect the U.S. dollar's share of reserves to decline over the same period. The findings reinforce a trend that has transformed reserve management over the last decade. Central banks have purchased an average of 1,000 tonnes of gold annually over the last four years, double the pace seen during the previous decade. Fan said one of the most notable developments is that interest in gold is spreading across a broader group of central banks. "We're seeing newer central banks starting to emerge," he said, pointing to countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Guatemala, and El Salvador that have recently entered the market or resumed purchases after years of inactivity. "The base on which central banks are buying is expanding." While emerging-market central banks remain the dominant buyers, Fan noted that interest is no longer confined to developing economies. The survey showed that 18% of advanced-economy central banks also expect to increase their gold holdings over the next year. Fan said central banks are increasingly discussing gold internally as reserve managers evaluate how best to diversify their portfolios amid growing geopolitical and economic uncertainty. "The number of conversations that we've been having over the past one or two years has definitely picked up," he said. "More central banks are approaching us, new central banks are approaching us." The survey found that reserve diversification remains the primary reason for buying gold, followed by the need for a stronger hedge against economic risks and concerns surrounding reserve-currency economies. Thirty-one of the 34 central banks planning to increase gold reserves cited diversification as a key motivation. The survey shows that reserve managers also continue to value gold's traditional monetary characteristics. A record 90% of respondents cited gold's performance during times of crisis as a major reason for holding the metal, while 84% pointed to its role as a long-term store of value and inflation hedge, and 83% highlighted its diversification benefits. Fan said those responses were particularly striking because they came during the latest conflict in the Middle East. "The most relevant factor this year was gold's performance during times of crisis," he said. "If anything, it's even more relevant than before." He added that recent geopolitical tensions have not changed central banks' long-term assessment of the metal. "Central banks are valuing more than ever gold's performance during times of crisis, gold's role as a long-term store of value, gold as a portfolio diversifier, gold being able to be a geopolitical hedge," Fan said. The growing importance of gold is also reflected in participation levels. This year's survey attracted 76 responses, the highest on record and up from 73 last year. Fan said the growing response rate is itself evidence that gold is becoming increasingly important within the official sector. "That fact alone points out that gold is much more relevant, much more front and center as a topic among central banks," he said. Source: https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-16/record-45-central-banks-plan-increase-gold-holdings-wgc-survey-finds

June 16, 2026 The price of gold continues its recovery at the start of the week. The prospect of a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran is pushing the price of oil below $80 per barrel, thereby easing concerns about inflation and interest rates. Despite the strong rebound, however, the technical picture remains weak. Hopes for peace provide relief via falling oil prices The U.S. and Iran plan to sign their peace agreement on Friday. For the price of gold, the resulting price slide in the oil market is currently the decisive driver, even overshadowing the dampening effect of easing geopolitical uncertainty. Falling energy costs reduce inflationary pressure and lessen the risk of further interest rate hikes. Gold has since pulled back significantly from its recent low of around $4,000 per ounce. Analysts, however, urge caution: political risks remain until the agreement is actually signed. A failure of the deal could quickly bring the $4,000 mark back into focus. In addition, the oil supply remains structurally tight. Since many governments drew heavily on their strategic reserves to stabilize prices during the conflict, buffers are now lacking. The oil market is therefore likely to react sensitively to new supply disruptions, which could quickly reignite inflation and interest rate concerns. Technical Analysis: Key Resistance Levels Ahead By successfully defending the $4,000 mark, gold has cleared its first hurdle. However, for a significant stabilization, the price must reclaim the 200-day moving average at around $4,450. Above that, the 50-day line awaits at around $4,581. A breakout above the interim high of May 12 at $4,773 is considered a decisive signal for a sustained upward trend. Focus on the Fed meeting Fundamentally, attention is turning to the Federal Reserve ’s first interest rate meeting under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. While the market continues to anticipate a potential rate hike by early 2027 at the latest, should Warsh signal that the Fed views the peace agreement as price-dampening and overlooks current inflation, this would provide significant relief for interest-rate-sensitive assets such as gold. For now, high real yields are limiting the precious metal’s upside potential. The current recovery of just over 3 percent underscores its high sensitivity to energy prices and interest rate expectations. Whether this leads to a genuine trend reversal now depends on the successful signing of the agreement, stabilization in the oil market, and upcoming signals from the Federal Reserve. Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-continues-to-appreciate-hopes-for-peace-weigh-on-oil-prices-and-interest-rate-concerns

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight LME copper opened at $13,813/mt. At the open, copper prices showed wild swings, dipping to $13,776.5/mt during the session. Then the price center fluctuated upward, touching a high of $13,835.5/mt near the close, and finally closed at $13,835/mt, up 0.13%. Trading volume reached 11,500 lots, and open interest stood at 251,000 lots, down 7,579 lots from the previous trading day, indicating a reduction in bearish positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 105,280 yuan/mt. In early trading, it hit a high of 105,580 yuan/mt, then the price center dipped to 105,210 yuan/mt. Subsequently, the center fluctuated upward, and finally closed at 105,510 yuan/mt, up 0.1%. Trading volume reached 18,000 lots, and open interest reached 122,000 lots, down 2,119 lots from the previous trading day, indicating a reduction in bearish positions.