SMM April 11 News: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight domestic market base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE copper rose 1.04%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.32%, SHFE lead fell 0.54%. SHFE zinc fell 0.59%. SHFE tin fell 0.09%. SHFE nickel fell 0.04%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 0.15%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum continuous contract rose 0.59%. Last Friday's overnight ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 0.27%, stainless steel rose 2.01%, rebar fell 0.03%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.06%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal rose 0.19%, coke fell 0.18%. Last Friday's overnight overseas market metals: LME base metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 1.27%. LME aluminum rose 1.8%, LME lead rose 0.26%. LME zinc rose 0.3%. LME tin rose 0.89%. LME nickel rose 0.44%. Last Friday's overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 0.98%, posting a two-week winning streak on a weekly basis with a 1.95% weekly gain; COMEX silver fell 0.54%, posting a three-week winning streak on a weekly basis with a 4.25% weekly gain. Last Friday's overnight SHFE gold fell 0.12%, posting a two-week winning streak on a weekly basis with a 1.22% weekly gain; SHFE silver rose 1.47%, posting a three-week winning streak on a weekly basis with a 3.65% weekly gain. Institutions including ANZ and Goldman Sachs stated that even as Middle East conflicts disrupted markets, gold is still likely to rebound in the long term. Analysts at these institutions believe that resilient central bank demand, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, expectations of US Fed interest rate cuts, and diversification away from US dollar-denominated assets all provide reasons for long-term bullishness. ANZ analysts Soni Kumari and Daniel Hynes said prices are expected to eventually rebound, as the deteriorating macro combination of economic growth and inflation paves the way for central banks to resume cutting interest rates. ANZ maintained its outlook, forecasting gold prices to reach $5,800 by year-end. Analysts wrote that central bank gold purchases are expected to remain a key support pillar, with official purchases in 2026 estimated at around 850 mt. ANZ's bullish stance echoes similar forecasts from Goldman Sachs and RBC made in early March. Goldman Sachs maintained its $5,400 forecast, citing continued central bank gold purchases and expectations of a 50-basis-point US Fed interest rate cut this year. Goldman Sachs analysts previously stated that if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, gold still faces tactical downside risks in the short term. However, prolonged conflict could accelerate diversification away from traditional Western assets, supporting gold prices in the long term. (Jin10 Data) As of 8:31 AM on April 11, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [Li Qiang Chairs Symposium on Economic Situation with Experts and Entrepreneurs] Li Qiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, chaired a symposium on the economic situation with experts and entrepreneurs on the afternoon of April 10, hearing opinions and suggestions on the current economic situation and the next steps for economic work. Li Qiang emphasized the need to promote high-quality and efficient development of the service industry, catering to people's needs throughout their entire life cycle and enterprises' needs across the entire process of production and operation. He called for thorough implementation of the service industry capacity expansion and quality improvement initiative, coordinating development and regulation, and cultivating more "China Services" brands. At the same time, he stressed the need to deepen and expand "AI+," accelerate the digital and intelligent transformation of manufacturing, and support the overall upgrading of the industrial system through deep integration and mutual empowerment of advanced manufacturing and modern services. Greater efforts should be made to promote employment and income growth for urban and rural residents, tap into employment potential across various channels and sectors, vigorously cultivate new occupations and positions, promote shifts in employment concepts and enhancement of vocational skills, formulate and implement income growth plans for urban and rural residents, and strengthen the virtuous cycle of resident income growth, domestic demand expansion, and economic development. (Xinhua News Agency) [Preview: The State Council Information Office Will Hold a Press Conference on April 14 to Brief on Import and Export Performance in Q1 2026] The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10:00 a.m. on April 14, 2026 (Tuesday), inviting Wang Jun, Deputy Commissioner of the General Administration of Customs, to brief on import and export performance in Q1 2026 and answer questions from reporters. [MIIT: Accelerate Building an Efficient and Unified AI Chip Computing Interconnection Ecosystem and Resolutely Eliminate "Involution-style" Competition in the PV Industry] The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held the 2026 National High-Quality Development Conference for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry on April 10 in Wuhan, Hubei Province. The conference emphasized adhering to a value-oriented approach, promoting high-quality development of the advanced computing industry, accelerating the building of an efficient and unified AI chip computing interconnection ecosystem, and driving the industry chain toward higher-value segments. It also stressed adhering to a problem-oriented approach, carefully analyzing the current challenges facing the industry, proposing targeted development roadmaps, resolutely eliminating "involution-style" competition in the PV industry, and enhancing the resilience and security of key industry chains and supply chains. [CSRC: Launch More ChiNext-related ETFs and Options, and Introduce ChiNext Stock Index Futures in Due Course] A spokesperson of the China Securities Regulatory Commission answered reporters' questions on the Opinions on Deepening ChiNext Reform to Better Serve the Development of New Quality Productive Forces, which mentioned enriching the product and service system. This includes optimizing the compilation of ChiNext-related indices, launching more ChiNext-related ETFs and options, introducing ChiNext stock index futures in due course, supporting fund advisory services in allocating ChiNext ETFs, incorporating ChiNext ETFs into the fund platform for transfer, better meeting the asset allocation and risk management needs of different investors, and enhancing investment convenience and attractiveness. [The Nationwide Mine Safety Risk Monitoring and Early Warning "Single Network" Has Been Basically Established] According to the Q1 regular press conference held by the National Mine Safety Administration, the nationwide mine safety risk monitoring and early warning "single network" has been basically established. Safety sensing data from all coal mines in normal production and construction, open-pit mines with high and steep slopes, tailings ponds, and 84% of non-coal underground mines in normal production and construction have been fully integrated into the national mine safety risk monitoring and early warning system. (Xinhua News Agency) [SSE: The Price Limit Ratio for Risk-Flagged Stocks on the Main Board Adjusted from 5% to 10%] The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) publicly solicited opinions on the revision of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Trading Rules. The revision mainly includes the following: First, the scope of securities eligible for after-hours fixed-price trading was expanded from STAR Market stocks to all A-shares and exchange-traded open-end funds. The adjustment helps meet investors' demand for trading at closing prices, extends trading hours for related products, and facilitates the entry of medium and long-term capital into the market. Second, the trading method during the closing session for funds was changed from continuous auction to closing call auction, with the closing price determined through call auction, consistent with SSE-listed stocks. Third, adaptive revisions were made in line with rule changes and business needs, adjusting the price limit ratio for risk-flagged stocks on the main board from 5% to 10%, refining rule language, and optimizing provisions on disciplinary actions. (Jin10 Data) [New Energy Power and Generation in Five Southern Provinces Hit Record Highs] According to China Southern Power Grid, new energy power and generation across the five provinces of Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Hainan recently hit record highs. The maximum power generation capacity exceeded 100 million kW for the first time, with daily power generation reaching 1.4 billion kWh, accounting for 30% of total daily power generation. (Xinhua News Agency) US Dollar: Last Friday, the US dollar index extended its decline from the previous four trading days, falling another 0.11% to close at 98.69. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index posted a second consecutive weekly decline, down 1.49% for the week. US inflation surged sharply in March, with the war with Iran driving gasoline prices to their largest single-month gain since 1967, significantly intensifying overall price pressures. Data released Friday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% MoM, in line with market expectations, marking the largest single-month increase since June 2022; it rose 3.3% YoY, accelerating significantly from February's 2.4% and hitting the highest level since 2024. Gasoline prices posted their largest single-month gain on record since 1967, almost single-handedly driving the overall monthly increase , contributing nearly three-quarters of the monthly gain. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose only 0.2% MoM, below the market expectation of 0.3%, offering some relief to the market and boosting short-term interest rate cut bets. However, economists warned that the second-round effects of this energy shock had not yet been fully reflected in core inflation, and April data faced the risk of further increases. The US dollar fell after the data release. The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April plunged from 53.3 in March to 47.6, hitting a record low. The current conditions index fell to 50.1, hitting a record low; the expectations index dropped to its weakest level since 1980; and the perception of current financial conditions tied the worst reading since 2009. Consumers expected prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.8% over the next year. This figure surged 1 percentage point from March, marking the largest single-month increase since Trump announced sweeping tariff hikes a year ago. San Francisco Fed President Daly (2027 FOMC voter): Bringing inflation down to 2% is critically important, but doing so at the expense of employment would put households in a difficult position. US economic fundamentals are "solid," and the labour market is more stable. Risks to the US Fed's goals of full employment and inflation are balanced. It is necessary to watch how the conflict evolves and how enterprises pass through price increases. Policy is sufficiently restrictive to exert downward pressure on inflation, while also sufficiently balanced to support a stable labour market. Policy is in a good place, giving us more time to observe how the conflict resolves and how oil prices change. High CPI data would not surprise anyone. The real question is whether the ceasefire can hold — if it does, the high CPI will become "old news." (Wallstreetcn) On the macro front: Data to be released this week include: US March existing home sales annualized total, US March NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, US March PPI YoY, US March PPI MoM, China March trade balance in US dollars, China March trade balance, France March CPI MoM final, Eurozone February industrial output MoM, Canada February wholesale sales MoM, US April NY Fed Manufacturing Index, US March import price index MoM, US April NAHB Housing Market Index, Australia March seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, China March total retail sales of consumer goods, China March industrial value added of enterprises above designated size, UK February three-month GDP MoM, UK February manufacturing output MoM, UK February seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, UK February industrial output MoM, Eurozone March CPI YoY final, Eurozone March CPI MoM final, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11, US April Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US March industrial output MoM, Eurozone February seasonally adjusted current account, and Eurozone February seasonally adjusted trade balance. In addition, other events to watch this week included: the State Council Information Office held a press conference at 10:00 a.m. on Tuesday, April 14, 2026, where Vice Minister of the General Administration of Customs Wang Jun briefed on Q1 2026 import and export performance and answered questions from reporters; the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank held their Spring Meetings, running through April 17; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo visited the US from April 13 to 18 to attend the G20 and International Monetary and Financial Committee meetings; the IMF released its World Economic Outlook report; the US Fed Board of Governors hosted "Strengthening the US Economy Through Rural Investment: A Working Forum"; Bank of England Governor Bailey participated in a panel discussion at Columbia University; 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participated in a panel discussion ahead of the Semafor 2026 World Economy Conference; US Fed Governor Barr delivered opening remarks at the working forum hosted by the US Fed Board of Governors; Philadelphia Fed President Paulsen, Richmond Fed President Barkin, Boston Fed President Collins, and US Fed Governor Barr participated in a fireside chat at the US Fed Board of Governors' working forum; European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech; the National Energy Administration released total electricity consumption data around the 15th of the month; US Fed Governor Bowman delivered a speech at the Institute of International Finance forum; the US Fed released the Beige Book on economic conditions; Bank of England Governor Bailey delivered a speech on global economic imbalances on the sidelines of the IMF meetings; the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the performance of the national economy; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams delivered a speech; the Group of Twenty (G20) Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting was held; 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivered a speech. (Jin10 Data) Crude oil: Last Friday, both oil futures fell overnight, with WTI down 2.29% and Brent down 1.73%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures declined 14.26% for the week, while Brent fell 13.55%. The market focused on progress in US-Iran peace talks. , crude oil futures prices saw relatively small changes as traders were about to head into the weekend, while the US and Iran plan to hold talks that could determine whether a ceasefire in the Middle East can be sustained. Scott Shelton of TP ICAP said: "Traders have basically pulled out of the market. The $7 fluctuations like yesterday seem to have occurred with very few human traders involved. All they were doing was necessary hedging or cleaning up positions to further reduce risk exposure." He also said: "Maybe after this weekend, we'll have a clearer picture of whether the gap between Iran and the US is too wide to reach a deal." (Jinshi Data) Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) said on its social media on the 10th that only 4 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, including one Iranian tanker and one Russian tanker. (Xinhua) Baker Hughes data showed that US drilling companies cut oil and gas rigs for the third time in four weeks. A senior White House official said that skepticism pervaded the White House. The official said that Trump appeared to have acknowledged in recent conversations with advisors that the Strait of Hormuz was unlikely to fully reopen in the short term. However, at the same time, Trump posted on social media on Thursday that oil supply would be restored soon, but he did not elaborate further. The US Department of Energy (DOE) will lend 8.5 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to four companies. Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council: Gasoline prices are very high at present. I hope the surge in gasoline prices will not affect other areas. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC): As of the week ending April 7, speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil futures increased by 5,520 contracts to 109,227 contracts. (Jinshi Data) Recommended Reading:

Silver has seen one of the sharpest pullbacks in recent years within just a few weeks. From the high of US$97.30 on March 2, the price fell to US$61.21 by March 23, losing around 37%. For the market, this was an abrupt break from the previous momentum.

Recently, silver prices have embarked on an upward trend, attracting market attention.

[SMM Commentary on SHFE Tin Futures: SHFE Tin Prices Break Out of Range-bound Trading, Spot Market Sees Brisk Trading]​​Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) fell sharply, closing at 257,000 yuan/mt, with a single-day decline of 3.15%, hitting a new low in nearly two weeks. The price fluctuated sharply during the day, reaching a high of 265,500 yuan/mt and a low of 256,800 yuan/mt. Trading volume was 96,332 lots, while open interest increased by 6,604 lots to 28,221 lots, with a net inflow of funds amounting to 367 million yuan. From the perspective of open interest structure, net long positions increased by 1,743 lots to 1,882 lots compared to the previous trading day, indicating that bulls' willingness to enter the market was stronger than that of bears...

SMM May 26 News: Metal Market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals generally rose, with SHFE tin down 0.31%, SHFE zinc down 0.58%, SHFE aluminum up 0.15%, and SHFE nickel slightly up. SHFE lead rose 0.36%, and SHFE copper rose 0.53%. In addition, alumina fell 4.18%, lithium carbonate fell 2.05%, silicon metal fell 2.53%, and polysilicon rose 0.52%. Most ferrous metals series fell, with iron ore down 2.28% and HRC down 1.94%. Stainless steel rose slightly, while rebar fell 1.57%. In the coking coal and coke sector: coking coal fell 1.47%, and coke fell 1.61%. In the overseas metal market, the LME metal market was closed for the day due to the Spring Bank Holiday. In the precious metals sector, as of 11:47 a.m., COMEX gold fell 0.6%, and COMEX silver rose slightly. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 0.55%, and SHFE silver rose 0.38%. As of the midday close, the most-traded contract for the European container shipping index fell 4.26%, closing at 2,119.3 points. As of 11:47 a.m. on May 26, the midday futures market movements for some contracts were as follows: 》SMM Metal Spot Prices on May 26 Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, the spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was quoted at a premium of 180-260 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average premium of 220 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 120-140 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 130 yuan/mt, also unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 78,585 yuan/mt, up 525 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 78,495 yuan/mt, up 525 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot Market: After the weekend, Guangdong's inventory only rose slightly. The market expects inventory to continue to decline in the future, so suppliers did not respond to the rise in copper prices... 》Click for details Macro Front Domestic: [Eight Departments: Cultivate Around 100 National Leading Enterprises in Digital and Intelligent Supply Chains by 2030] Eight departments, including the Ministry of Commerce, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the State Taxation Administration, and the National Data Administration, recently jointly issued the "Special Action Plan for Accelerating the Development of Digital and Intelligent Supply Chains." The "Action Plan" makes forward-looking, comprehensive, and systematic arrangements for the development of digital and intelligent supply chains. It proposes the use of new technologies such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, and blockchain to promote the digital, intelligent, and visual transformation of supply chains on a "chain-by-chain" basis. By 2030, a replicable and promotable model for the construction and development of digital and intelligent supply chains will be formed. A deeply embedded, smart, efficient, and independently controllable digital and intelligent supply chain system will be basically established in important industries and key areas. Around 100 national leading enterprises in digital and intelligent supply chains will be cultivated, further enhancing the resilience and security level of China's industrial and supply chains. [The central bank's net injection via open market operations was 247 billion yuan] The central bank conducted 382 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 135 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 247 billion yuan was achieved. ► On May 26, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1833 yuan per US dollar. US dollar: The US dollar index fell to a nearly one-month low. As of 11:47, the US dollar index was down 0.31%, at 98.79. According to CCTV News, on the 25th (local time), US President Trump stated that the EU had requested an extension of the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9, and he had agreed to this request. Trump described the talks with the EU on tariffs as "very pleasant." He said that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had stated during the call that day, "We will engage quickly to see if an agreement can be reached." In response, Trump said, "I agreed to her request for an extension." On the 23rd, Trump posted on social media that he proposed imposing a 50% tariff on goods from the EU starting from June 1. He stated that the main purpose of the EU's establishment was to "take advantage of the US in trade," and that negotiations between the US and the EU had "made no progress." Therefore, he proposed imposing a 50% tariff on goods from the EU starting from June 1, 2025. If the goods are manufactured or produced in the US, no tariff will be imposed. Macro: Today, the revised reading for the change in Japan's leading indicators for March and Spain's year-on-year PPI for April will be released. In addition, it is worth noting that Fed Chairman Powell will deliver a commencement address at Princeton University's graduation ceremony, and ECB President Lagarde will speak at the Hertie School in Berlin. On May 26 (Monday), due to Memorial Day holiday in the US and the Spring Bank Holiday in the UK, trading hours in financial markets will be adjusted. The holiday schedule for overseas exchanges is as follows (all times are Beijing time): 》Public holidays in the US and UK today, holiday schedule for overseas exchanges Crude oil: As of 11:47, crude oil futures dropped slightly, with US crude up 0.31% and Brent crude up 0.26%. Earlier, US President Trump extended the deadline for trade negotiations with the EU, alleviating market concerns that US tariffs on the EU could harm the global economy and fuel demand. OPEC is expected to decide at its meeting next week to increase production by another 411,000 barrels per day in July, a forecast that has limited the rise in oil prices. In its closely watched report released last Friday, US energy services company Baker Hughes stated that the number of oil and natural gas rigs operated by US energy firms fell for the fourth consecutive week this week, reaching the lowest level since November 2021. Data showed that, for the week ending May 23, the total number of US oil and natural gas rigs, a leading indicator of future production, decreased by 10 to 566, marking the largest weekly decline since September 2023. It was also the first time since September 2024 that the number of active US oil and natural gas rigs had declined for four consecutive weeks. Data released by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) last Friday showed that, for the week ending May 20, fund managers reduced their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options by 12,816 contracts to 81,336 contracts. (Webstock Inc.) Spot Market Overview: ► Inventory changes were relatively small over the weekend, and spot premiums remained flat compared to last Friday. [SMM South China Spot Copper] ► Copper prices rose, but demand remained weak, with low market trading activity. [SMM North China Spot Copper] ► Shanghai Zinc: Spot transactions were poor, and premiums remained stable. [SMM Midday Review] ► Ningbo Zinc: Premiums remained high, with attention on subsequent zinc ingot arrivals. [SMM Midday Review] Midday reviews of other metal spot markets will be updated later. Please refresh to view.

On May 16, the 2025 SMM (6th) Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), co-organized by Ningbo Haoshun Precious Metals Co., Ltd. and Quanda New Materials (Ningbo) Co., Ltd., and supported by sponsors including Fujian Zijin Precious Metals Materials Co., Ltd., Huizhou Yian Precious Metals Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Jiangshan Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Zhengzhou Jinquan Mining and Metallurgical Equipment Co., Ltd., Hunan Shengyin New Materials Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Weida Precious Metals Powder Materials Co., Ltd., Guangxi Zhongma Zhonglianjin Cross-border E-commerce Co., Ltd., Suzhou Xinghan New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., Yongxing Zhongsheng Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd., IKOI S.p.A, Hunan Zhengming Environmental Protection Co., Ltd., Kunshan Hongfutai Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd., and Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd., featured a presentation by Liang Yonghui, Deputy General Manager of Shandong Zhaojin Gold and Silver Refining Co., Ltd., on the topic "Analysis of Gold and Silver Price Trends: A Trader's Perspective." Logic of Gold and Silver Price Analysis The logical hierarchy of gold price drivers differs from that of commodities due to gold's financial attributes. Silver prices are increasingly influenced by copper prices. Long-term: The macro trend of gold prices opposes paper currency credit. Medium-term: Guided by expectations of real interest rates, with capital flows dominated by technical factors, speculation, and risk aversion. Short-term: Market sentiment Gold price = Real interest rate + Risk aversion + Market sentiment, etc. Logic from 1997 to present: From 1997-2015, real interest rates and inflation; from 2016-2018, technical factors; from 2019 to present, real interest rates, risk aversion, and market sentiment. Gold and Silver Price Analysis Framework (Mind Map) Macro fundamentals: From the perspective of military cycles, the current period is a high-incidence era of revolutions over the past century, indicating a more severe situation than in the 1930s and 1970s. From the Kondratieff wave (long-wave cycle) perspective, the current situation in the US resembles that of the 1970s, both experiencing high inflation during the Kondratieff depression phase. Sunspots: A century-long solar storm tide provides long-term support for gold and silver prices. The rise in global average temperatures will significantly increase the number of hungry people, raising uncertainty risks. Abnormal weather patterns, economic turmoil, and population growth will provide long-term bullish factors for gold and silver (carbon neutrality). From the perspective of the US dollar index, it has fallen below 100 but is expected to remain volatile, with a bullish impact on gold and silver prices. The purchasing power of major currencies and commodities has significantly declined relative to gold. Historically, major currencies were pegged to gold. Following the final collapse of the US Bretton Woods system in 1971, gold was delinked from the US dollar. Since then, with a few exceptions, gold has significantly outperformed all major currencies and commodities as a medium of exchange. A key factor behind this robust performance is the slow growth in gold supply, with gold mine production increasing gradually over time—by approximately 1.7% annually over the past two decades. In contrast, fiat currencies can be printed in unlimited quantities to support monetary policies, such as the quantitative easing (QE) policies implemented after the 2008 global financial crisis and during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. These crises have prompted investors to turn to gold as a hedge against currency depreciation risks and to protect the purchasing power of their assets. Currently, the US Fed's interest rate cut cycle has entered a pause phase. A series of uncertainties are affecting the outlook for US Fed interest rate cuts. The minutes of the US Fed's monetary policy meetings indicate that policies such as the Trump administration's tariffs have led to increased economic uncertainty and upside risks to inflation. Therefore, the US Fed will continue to pause interest rate cuts and wait for clearer inflation and economic outlooks before taking further action. According to statistics, the term "tariffs" was mentioned 107 times in the US Fed's Beige Book report, while terms related to "uncertainty" appeared 89 times, reflecting the US Fed's concerns about the uncertain consequences arising from tariff policies. Currently, market expectations are for an interest rate cut as early as June, with up to four cuts possible throughout the year. According to the US Fed's interest rate forecast dot plot, a report based on individual members' predictions of future target interest rates released by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): Looking ahead to the US Fed's future interest rate cut path, the prerequisites for future US Fed interest rate cuts are sustained declines in inflation or significant weakness in the labour market. Trump has repeatedly pressured Powell to cut interest rates, but Fed Chairman Powell has clearly stated that the current stance is to remain on the sidelines. Currently, influenced by the continued weakening of the labour market, market expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts this year have risen to 100 basis points, with a total of four cuts expected. The ongoing global de-dollarization is causing cracks in the US dollar system, reshaping the world order. With no alternative to gold emerging yet, this supports gold prices. The macroeconomic cycle influences medium and long-term fluctuations in gold prices. US economic recession cycles often correspond with rising gold prices and falling silver prices. The risk of economic recession has significantly increased, which is bullish for gold and bearish for silver. From the perspective of real interest rates, the current static gold price is $1,850. ►Silver Supply and Demand The latest report released by the Silver Institute predicts that the global silver deficit will narrow to 117.6 million ounces in 2025, a decrease of 21%. This change stems from the combined effects of a 1% decline in demand and a 2% increase in total supply. Silver, as a crucial material for jewelry, electronics, EVs, and solar panels, and with investment value, has experienced a structural market shortage for five consecutive years. It is expected to remain stable in 2025, while demand for jewelry and silverware is anticipated to decline. The report specifically mentions that adjustments to the US tariff policy pose a major risk factor for silver demand this year, and changes in this policy may profoundly impact the supply-demand balance in the global silver market. Both the total global silver supply and silver mine production have slowed down. Total demand has weakened somewhat, while industrial silver demand continues to grow, and PV demand growth is limited. It also elaborates on the narrowing of the silver supply-demand gap; the low level of domestic and overseas silver inventories; the historically high levels of silver CFTC open interest, bulls, and net long positions; the rise in silver investment demand; and the increase in silver ETF holdings. ►Gold-silver price ratio: The ratio of silver to gold is an important indicator for measuring their relative value. Due to the impact of safe-haven and investment demand, gold surged significantly in April, while silver, lacking safe-haven attributes, saw limited gains, leading to a rapid widening of the gold-silver ratio to 107. After the release of the overheated sentiment in the gold market, gold bulls reduced their positions in stages and exited the market. Meanwhile, silver remained unusually resilient, and the gold-silver ratio once fell below 100. The long-term upward logic for gold remains unchanged, while silver currently lacks the conditions for a long-term rally. Despite the already high gold-silver ratio, as the correction in gold concludes, bullish capital is expected to return to the market, and the gold-silver ratio may continue to rise in the future. From the perspective of the Kondratieff depression phase, considering excess premium or a macro bull market, gold has risen, and the excess premium has been realized. Will there be a macro bull market? Bearish in the medium term. From the perspective of the gold-to-metal and gold-to-agricultural product ratios during the depression, gold is at a high level with excess premium, which is bearish. From the perspective of central banks' gold buying and selling, central banks' purchases have been on an upward trend in recent years, which is bearish in peaceful times and bullish during war cycles. From the perspective of capital flow—open interest, a unilateral trend can be maintained. Exchange rates will reduce volatility: From the perspective of the silver bull-bear cycle, with eight operational phases, it is bearish. However, silver's application in PV at 3,000 mt per year is bullish in the long term (due to major industrial technological breakthroughs). ►Key factors Some thoughts: 1. Gold's correction is similar to that in December 2009. Most non-ferrous metals have seen their prices halved, while gold has continuously hit new highs, and silver's performance resembles that of copper in the 1980s. 3. Prices tend to rise during interest rate hike cycles, and there is a high probability of rising during interest rate cut cycles as well. 4. The global macro cycle suggests a chaotic world in the future. Under this macro cycle, gold prices may exceed expectations. Could silver reach $49? 5. Opportunities arise from the scarcity of gold, silver, platinum, tin, gallium, germanium, and major industrial technological breakthroughs. 6. Digital currencies represent the greatest uncertainty in weakening the financial attributes of gold and silver. Gold has the foundation for a major bull market, and silver's long-term target is close to its previous high. ►Forecast: Its long-term attributes resemble those of copper, with a new cycle trend emerging after March 2024. In the near term, prices are expected to range from $27 to $38, with an overall fluctuating upward trend based on weekly adjustments. Gold: Is there a foundation for a long-term bull market at $5,000? Risk warnings: (In the VUCA era) 1. Uncertainty of war and conflicts. 2. Uncertainty of technological revolutions. 3. Uncertainty between the East and the West. 4. Uncertainty of exchange rates. 》Click to view the special report on the 2025 SMM (6th) Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference

Since the beginning of this month, a rather unusual phenomenon has emerged in the US interest rate market: nearly every "big day" for economic data releases (including US Fed decision days) has dealt a blow to expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts... On Tuesday, Biancore Search strategist Jim Bianco stated on social media that the next FOMC meeting with a probability of over 50% for an interest rate cut is now not expected until the September policy meeting—with the latest probability for a cut at the September meeting exceeding 60%. However, less than two weeks ago, this probability was actually over 100%, implying that the market was betting on an earlier rate cut. Bianco thus lamented that if this trend continues, the window for the next rate cut could soon be pushed back to December. It is worth noting that a chart attached to Bianco's post indeed shows that since the beginning of this month, from the ISM Manufacturing PMI, non-farm payrolls, ISM Services PMI, and US Fed decisions, to the latest US April CPI data released last night, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts have weakened on nearly every "big day"... This is not to say that every set of data has been unfavorable for the rate cut outlook. For instance, the US April CPI data released yesterday, which came in below expectations, should theoretically have favored an earlier US Fed rate cut. However, rather unusually, even as Trump used the data to "press" Fed Chairman Powell, expectations for a rate cut still continued to weaken: Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed that the US CPI rose 0.2% MoM and 2.3% YoY in April, both below market expectations of 0.3% and 2.4%, respectively. The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% MoM and 2.8% YoY, in line with expectations. The 2.3% YoY increase in CPI and the 2.8% YoY increase in core CPI are both the lowest since early 2021. After the CPI data release, Trump once again pressured Fed Chairman Powell to take action to cut interest rates. Trump wrote on the social platform Truth Social, "There is no more inflation! Prices for gasoline, energy, groceries, and almost everything else are all falling!!!" The Fed must lower interest rates, just as Europe and China have already done. What's going on with 'Mr. Delay' Powell? Isn't this unfair to a US that is about to take off? Let the rate cut happen—it would be wonderful!" However, data from the interest rate futures market on Tuesday still showed that expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts continued to weaken—moving further towards only two rate cuts this year. Will the pullback in CPI still fail to guarantee an interest rate cut? Well, if it was understandable that several sets of hot US data released earlier this month did not support the US Fed's interest rate cut, why did yesterday's CPI data still fail to ignite market expectations for an interest rate cut? In response, a data commentary by Nick Timiraos, known as the "New Fed Wire," may reflect the current market sentiment: that is, from the perspective of the future evolution trend of CPI, the US Fed still has little reason to change its wait-and-see stance. Timiraos believes that these data are basically in line with the expectations of forecasters who closely track how the Labor Department measures inflation. If there is any good news, it is that the CPI data did not reach the upper limit of expectations—or worse. Nevertheless, for the US Fed, the April inflation data is like a (final) piece of good weather news before a highly anticipated storm—the intensity of which remains uncertain. This CPI report may only make officials feel more at ease with their decision to cut interest rates by 100 basis points last year. He believes that if it were not for the widespread tariff increases in April, this inflation data might have given the US Fed hope of resuming interest rate cuts soon. However, potential cost increases in the coming months are likely to keep the Fed on the sidelines until it can better determine whether the price increases are merely a one-off phenomenon. Interest Rate Expectations "Change Daily" Currently, an increasing number of market traders are abandoning their bets on a US Fed interest rate cut. Open interest data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) on Tuesday confirmed that several previously large bets on an interest rate cut have been closed out—one of which had a target price of up to four 25-basis-point interest rate cuts this year, and this closure may have resulted in losses of up to $10 million. Swap contracts linked to the US Fed's policy meetings currently reflect an interest rate cut of just over 50 basis points this year, compared to expectations of more than 100 basis points last month. "The current news flow on tariffs, trade agreements, geopolitical tensions, and domestic fiscal policy is changing so rapidly that it is enough to make people adjust their expectations for the target meeting time of a US Fed interest rate cut (or hike) every day," Jefferies strategist Thomas Simons wrote in a research report. As traders exit their bets on a dovish stance by the US Fed, major Wall Street banks are also rapidly reshaping their expectations for the Fed's policy. Goldman Sachs and Barclays now both expect the first interest rate cut of the year to occur in December rather than the previously expected July, while Citi has adjusted its expected timing of the interest rate cut from June to July, and JPMorgan Chase has also postponed its interest rate cut expectations from September to December. "The potential impact of tariffs, along with persistent inflationary pressures in interest rate-sensitive sectors such as housing and automobiles, suggests limited room for interest rate cuts. Therefore, patience remains the US Fed's best course of action," Simons said. Judging from the options activity at the far end of the Treasury curve, the demand for protection against rising yields has been increasing. In Tuesday's trading, multiple bets were placed on the 10-year yield rising to nearly 5% in the coming weeks, about 50 basis points above the current level. In the spot market, bearish sentiment toward bonds is also heating up. JPMorgan's US Treasury client survey released on Tuesday showed that outright short positions rose to their highest level in seven weeks, while net long positions shrank to their lowest level since February 10.

Since April, the most-traded SHFE copper contract prices have shown a trend of initial decline followed by a rebound, with copper prices gradually recovering after hitting a low of 71,000 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, arbitrage trading in the LME copper and COMEX copper markets has weakened, while domestic copper smelters have increased maintenance activities, leading to a rapid drawdown in social copper inventory and providing support for copper prices. Supply side remains tight. In December 2024, China's copper concentrate production reached 151,800 mt, up 6.89% YoY and 9.51% MoM. In March 2025, China imported 2.3939 million mt of copper concentrates and ore, up 9.69% MoM and 2.73% YoY. This year, China's copper concentrate production has been at a relatively low level, while imports have remained relatively stable, resulting in an overall decline in copper concentrate supply. In late April, Peru's Antamina mine halted operations entirely due to a sudden accident. The mine produced 426,900 mt of copper ore in 2024, accounting for 1.86% of global copper ore production, which will have a certain impact on global copper ore supply. In terms of inventory, as of April 18, the copper concentrate inventory at major domestic ports stood at 706,900 mt, at a moderate level, while the processing fee for imported ore continued to decline, falling to -$34.71/mt, a record low. According to data from relevant institutions, from 2021 to 2025, the global copper concentrate capacity additions have accelerated, but in the next three years, the growth rate of global copper concentrate capacity additions will decline rapidly, potentially exacerbating the global copper concentrate supply tightness in the later period. As of February this year, China's copper scrap production reached 115,800 mt in metal content, up 4.99% MoM and 60.83% YoY. According to March data, China's imports of copper scrap and shredded copper scrap reached 189,700 mt, down 3,631 mt MoM and 13.07% YoY. Among them, imports from the US were 22,500 mt, down 8,900 mt MoM. With the intensifying impact of the "trade war," China's copper scrap imports may decline in the later period, leading to a tight supply-demand structure for copper scrap. In February, China's blister copper production was 911,500 mt, down 2.96% MoM and up 10.74% YoY. Among them, mine-produced blister copper decreased by 26,500 mt from January to 738,700 mt, while scrap-produced blister copper decreased by 1,300 mt to 172,800 mt. In March, China imported 50,200 mt of copper anode, down 11.05% MoM and 47.8% YoY. In March, China's copper cathode production was 1.1221 million mt, up 6.04% MoM and 12.27% YoY. Entering April, due to the tight supply of copper concentrates, some smelters began to reduce the feedstock of copper concentrates, but by increasing the feedstock of copper scrap and anode plates, they maintained stable copper cathode production.Additionally, new smelters have commenced operations in east China, while the capacity utilization rate of smelters in south-west China has increased, leading to a slight decline in the total production of copper cathode. Due to significant losses in the industry, the operating rate of domestic smelters remains relatively low, and import losses have also suppressed the supply of imported copper. Overall, despite an increase in copper cathode production, the overall supply pressure remains relatively small. In terms of subsequent capacity increments, it is projected that China will add 1.17 million mt of new copper refining capacity in 2025, with overseas capacity additions reaching approximately 870,000 mt. Among these, the Kamoa mining area, jointly held by Ivanhoe and Zijin Mining, will contribute the largest overseas capacity increment. Operating rates in downstream sectors rebound In 2025, China's fiscal policy will become more proactive. Specifically, the scale of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds is expected to increase from 1 trillion yuan to 2 trillion yuan, while the scale of new special local government bonds is anticipated to rise from 3.9 trillion yuan to 4.5 trillion to 5 trillion yuan. With the continuous strengthening of fiscal policy, it is expected that infrastructure investment in 2025 will continue to fluctuate at highs in recent years, with investment growth rates projected to stabilize at 5% to 10%. Infrastructure investment will remain one of the main driving forces for industrial product demand in 2025. In December 2024, China's copper semis production reached 2.27 million mt, up 6.2% MoM and 16.53% YoY. The operating rate of enterprises in the copper semis industry stood at 69.02%. Affected by the Chinese New Year holiday, the operating rate of the copper semis industry was low in January and February but gradually rebounded to 67% in March. With the recovery of downstream consumption, the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises in the copper industry continued to rebound. Entering April, copper prices fell sharply, stimulating an increase in downstream orders. It is expected that the operating rate of enterprises in the copper semis industry will continue to rise, but attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff policies on China's copper consumption. Additionally, the YoY data for overall power grid and NEV production both showed slight increases, providing further bullish support for copper cathode demand. Bulls take the initiative in forward contracts In April, the growth rate of COMEX copper inventories accelerated, approaching 130,000 short tons as of April 23. Domestically, as of April 24, social copper inventories stood at 181,700 mt, achieving eight consecutive weeks of weekly destocking, down 195,300 mt from the year's high and 223,000 mt lower than the 404,700 mt recorded in the same period last year. In April, the decline in LME copper inventories slowed down, hovering around 210,000 mt, with the ratio of cancelled warrants dropping from a high of 50% to 37%. As of April 18, both non-commercial long and short positions in COMEX Grade 1 copper decreased from the previous week, with net long positions falling by 4,764 lots to 19,477 lots. Meanwhile, both long and short positions in LME copper investment funds increased, with net long positions rising by 1,479 lots to 29,842 lots.The domestic futures market exhibits a contango structure, with bulls taking the initiative in the deferred contracts, indicating that major funds are optimistic about future prices. From the perspective of the supply-demand balance table, with the arrival of the peak consumption season, downstream demand is rebounding while upstream supply is pulling back. The supply-demand structure is gradually improving, and the probability of a supply-demand gap emerging in Q2 is rising. Against this backdrop, market optimism is heating up, providing certain bullish support for prices. From a macro perspective, based on the economic data released by the US in March, indicators such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, CPI, and PPI have shown robust performance. The impact of US tariff policies is expected to be reflected in April's data, and subsequent attention should be paid to the progress of negotiations between the US and other countries. On the supply side, the tight supply situation of copper raw materials has intensified, with processing fees for imported copper concentrates continuing to decline, and tariff policies affecting the imports of copper scrap. Currently, the extent of production cuts in copper smelting is relatively small, with April mainly focusing on maintenance. By-products such as sulphuric acid and gold can offset some of the losses incurred by smelters. On the consumption side, as downstream consumption gradually recovers, the operating rates of downstream copper processing enterprises have significantly increased. The shortage of secondary copper raw materials has also stimulated market consumption of copper cathode. However, the impact of US tariff policies is gradually becoming apparent, making it difficult to be optimistic about the subsequent consumption of copper. Overall, the fundamental support for copper is moderate, but US tariff policies still plague the market, which will limit the subsequent rebound height of copper prices. It is expected that SHFE copper prices in May may struggle to break new highs, and caution should be exercised against the risk of prices jumping initially and then pulling back. (Author's affiliation: Huawen Futures)

SMM May 12 News: Metal Market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals rose across the board, with SHFE aluminum up 1.02%. SHFE lead rose 1.19%, SHFE copper rose 0.52%, and SHFE tin and SHFE zinc both rose less than 0.5%. SHFE nickel rose 1.84%. In addition, alumina fell 0.99%. Lithium carbonate fell 0.13%, silicon metal was flat at 8,300 yuan/mt, and polysilicon rose 0.95%. The ferrous metals series mostly rose, with iron ore up 2.15% and stainless steel up 1.26%. Rebar and HRC rose nearly 1%. In the coking coal and coke sector: coking coal fell 0.51%, and coke rose 0.17%. In the overseas metal market, as of 11:47 a.m., LME base metals rose nearly across the board. LME tin rose 0.33%, LME zinc rose 0.38%, LME lead rose 0.73%, LME copper rose 0.42%, and LME aluminum rose 0.56. LME nickel fell slightly. In the precious metals sector, as of 11:47 a.m., COMEX gold fell 1.7%, and COMEX silver rose 0.17%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 1.73%, and SHFE silver rose 0.28%. As of the midday close, the most-traded contract for the European Containerized Freight Index rose 6.16% to 1,341.9 points. As of 11:47 a.m. on May 12, midday futures market movements for some contracts: 》SMM Metal Spot Prices on May 12 Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was quoted at a premium of 20 yuan/mt to a premium of 150 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average premium of 85 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 40 yuan/mt to a discount of 20 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 30 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 78,340 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 78,225 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot Market: Guangdong inventory ended a three-day decline and rose again, mainly due to weaker downstream consumption... 》Click for details Macro Front Domestic: [PBOC Net Injection of 43 Billion Yuan via Open Market Operations] The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted 43 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. As there were no reverse repos maturing today, a net injection of 43 billion yuan was achieved. [Multiple Regions Release Housing Development Plans Focusing on "High-Quality Housing" Construction] Recently, the "2025 Annual Plan for Housing Development in Beijing" released by the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development mentioned that 240 to 300 hectares of land for commercial housing will be supplied in 2025, 50,000 sets of affordable rental housing will be constructed and collected, and 80,000 sets of various types of affordable housing will be completed, accelerating the pace of "high-quality housing" construction.Prior to this, cities such as Guangzhou and Chengdu had also released their 2025 housing development plans. Many localities have expressed their intention to accelerate the construction of "high-quality housing." Industry insiders have stated that it is expected that detailed indicators for the construction of "high-quality housing" across various regions will be expedited in their release and implementation. ► On May 12, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was set at 7.2066 yuan per US dollar. US dollar: As of 11:47 a.m., the US dollar index rose by 0.17%, closing at 100.58. Substantial progress was made in the high-level economic and trade talks between China and the US, which has alleviated market anxiety. Beth Hammack, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, stated on Friday that the US Fed needs more time to observe how the economy responds to President Trump's tariffs and other policies before it can identify the correct response measures. According to the CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is 82.7%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut is 17.3%. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 40.8%, the cumulative probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut is 50.7%, and the cumulative probability of a 50-basis-point interest rate cut is 8.7%. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, to be released on Tuesday, will provide new clues regarding the path of the Fed's monetary policy, a matter of great concern to traders. Macro side: [He Lifeng: China firmly supports multilateralism and free trade, and supports the World Trade Organization in playing a greater role in global economic governance] Vice Premier of the State Council He Lifeng met with World Trade Organization (WTO) Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala in Geneva on the evening of the 11th. He Lifeng stated that the multilateral trading system centered around the WTO is the cornerstone of international trade and plays a vital role in global economic governance. All parties should resolve differences and disputes through equal dialogue within the framework of the WTO, jointly uphold multilateralism and free trade, and promote the stability and smooth operation of global industrial and supply chains. China will continue to participate comprehensively and deeply in the reform of the WTO, support the WTO in playing the role of a "stabilizer" for global trade, safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of developing members, and make greater contributions to addressing global common challenges. He Lifeng also provided information on the high-level economic and trade talks between China and the US in response to inquiries. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stated that the current global economic and trade growth is facing severe challenges, and WTO members should jointly defend an open and rules-based multilateral trading system, strengthen dialogue and cooperation on international trade issues, and promote the WTO in playing a greater role in facilitating trade liberalization and achieving global sustainable development. ► He Lifeng: China and the US Reach Important Consensus, Talks Make Substantial Progress Today, data including China's M2 money supply YoY for April, China's total social financing (TSF) for the year to date (YTD) in April, China's new RMB loans for the YTD in April, changes in Canada's employment for April, and Canada's unemployment rate for April will be released. Additionally, attention should be paid to the following: Vice Premier of the State Council He Lifeng visited Switzerland from May 12 to 12 (Note: This appears to be a typo, likely intended to be a different date range) and held talks with Swiss leaders and relevant parties. During his visit, as the Chinese lead negotiator for China-US economic and trade issues, Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold talks with the US lead negotiator, US Treasury Secretary Bessent. Furthermore, Federal Reserve Governor Cooker delivered a speech; the National Energy Administration's monthly release of total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month is also worth noting. Crude Oil: As of 11:47, crude oil futures rose, with US crude up 0.59% and Brent crude up 0.52%. The easing of global trade tensions boosted market sentiment and supported oil prices. However, a potential nuclear deal between the US and Iran could alleviate concerns about a reduction in global oil supply, which would also put pressure on oil prices and limit their gains. In other news, US energy services company Baker Hughes stated in its closely watched report that the number of oil and natural gas rigs operated by US energy companies fell to its lowest level since January this week. Data showed that as of the week ending May 9, the total number of US oil and natural gas rigs, a leading indicator of future production, declined by 6 to 578. This brought the total number of active rigs down by 25, or 4%, YoY. During the week, the number of active US oil rigs fell by 5 to 474, while the number of natural gas rigs remained steady at 101. Data released by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that as of the week ending May 6, fund managers reduced their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The data indicated that speculators cut their net long positions in WTI crude oil futures and options in both New York and London by 23,002 lots to 93,596 lots. (Webstock Inc.) Spot Market Overview: ► Large Monthly Spread, Lower Contango, Overall Trading Activity Average [SMM South China Copper Spot] ► Weak Downstream Demand, Poor Purchase Willingness, Sluggish Spot Trading Activity [SMM North China Copper Spot] ► [SMM Iron Ore Shipping Data] Global Shipments Continue to Decline Slightly, Port Arrivals Increase Slightly ► [SMM Steel Shipping] China's Total Steel Exports Fell 18% WoW Last Week ► [SMM Coking Coal Shipping] SMM Total Coal Port Arrivals Reached 7.101 Million mt Updates on other metal spot noon reviews will be available later. Please refresh to view~

Impact of US Tariff Policies Gradually Emerges As downstream consumption gradually recovers, the operating rates of copper downstream processing enterprises have significantly increased. However, the impact of US tariff policies is gradually emerging, making it difficult to be optimistic about the subsequent copper consumption. Since April, the most-traded SHFE copper contract has formed a trend of first declining and then rising, with prices gradually rebounding after hitting a low of 71,000 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, arbitrage trading in the LME and COMEX copper markets has weakened, while domestic copper smelter maintenance has increased, and social inventory of copper has rapidly decreased, providing support for copper prices. How much room is there for copper prices to rebound subsequently? Supply Side Remains Tight In December 2024, China's copper concentrate production was 151,800 mt, up 6.89% YoY and 9.51% MoM. In March 2025, China imported 2.3939 million mt of copper concentrates and ore in physical terms, up 9.69% MoM and 2.73% YoY. This year, China's copper concentrate production has been at a relatively low level, while imports have remained relatively stable, resulting in a decrease in the overall supply of copper concentrates. In late April, Peru's Antamina mine fully suspended operations due to a sudden accident. In 2024, the mine's copper production was 426,900 mt, accounting for 1.86% of the global total copper mine production, which will have a certain impact on the global copper ore supply. In terms of inventory, as of April 18, the copper concentrate inventory at domestic mainstream ports was 706,900 mt, at a medium level. Meanwhile, the processing fee for imported ore continued to decline, falling to -$34.71/mt, hitting a record low. In addition, according to data from relevant institutions, the global new copper concentrate capacity additions accelerated from 2021 to 2025. However, in the three years after 2026, the growth rate of global new copper concentrate capacity will rapidly decline, potentially exacerbating the tight supply of global copper concentrates in the later period. As of February this year, China's copper scrap production was 115,800 mt in metal content, up 4.99% MoM and 60.83% YoY. According to March data, China's imports of copper scrap and shredded copper scrap were 189,700 mt in physical terms, down 3,631 mt (-1.88%) MoM and 13.07% YoY. Among them, imports from the US were 22,500 mt in physical terms, down 8,900 mt MoM. With the intensifying impact of Sino-US trade frictions, the volume of imported copper scrap may decline in the later period, leading to a tight supply-demand structure for copper scrap. In February, China's blister copper production was 911,500 mt, down 2.96% MoM and up 10.74% YoY. Among them, mineral-derived blister copper decreased by 26,500 mt from January to 738,700 mt, while scrap-derived blister copper decreased by 1,300 mt to 172,800 mt. In March, China imported 50,200 mt of copper anode, down 11.05% MoM and 47.8% YoY. In March, China's copper cathode production reached 1.1221 million mt, up 6.04% MoM and 12.27% YoY. Entering April, the supply of copper concentrates tightened, prompting some smelters to reduce their feedstock intake of copper concentrates. However, by increasing the intake of copper scrap and anode plates, they managed to maintain stable copper cathode production. Additionally, a new smelter in east China commenced operations, and the capacity utilization rate of smelters in southwest China increased, leading to a slight decline in the total copper cathode production. Due to significant losses in the industry, the operating rate of domestic smelters remained relatively low, while import losses also suppressed the supply of imported copper. Overall, despite the increase in copper cathode production, the overall supply pressure remained relatively small. Looking ahead at capacity increments, it is expected that China will add 1.17 million mt of new copper refining capacity in 2025, with overseas capacity additions reaching around 870,000 mt. Among these, the Kamoa mining area, jointly held by Ivanhoe and Zijin Mining, will contribute the largest increase in overseas capacity. Rebound in downstream operating rates In 2025, China's fiscal policy will become more proactive. Specifically, the scale of ultra-long special treasury bonds is expected to increase from 1 trillion yuan to 2 trillion yuan, while the scale of new special local government bonds is expected to rise from 3.9 trillion yuan to 4.5 trillion-5 trillion yuan. With the continuous strengthening of fiscal policy, it is anticipated that infrastructure investment in 2025 will continue to fluctuate at highs in recent years, with investment growth expected to stabilize at 5%-10%. Infrastructure investment will remain one of the main driving forces for industrial product demand in 2025. In December 2024, China's copper semis production reached 2.27 million mt, up 6.2% MoM and 16.53% YoY. The operating rate of China's copper semis industry in December 2024 was 69.02%. Affected by the Chinese New Year holiday, the operating rate of the copper semis industry was relatively low in January-February 2025 but gradually recovered to 67% in March. With the recovery of downstream consumption, the operating rates of downstream copper processing enterprises continued to rebound. Entering April, copper prices fell sharply, stimulating an increase in downstream orders. It is expected that the operating rate of the copper semis industry may continue to rise, but attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff policies on China's copper consumption. Additionally, the YoY data for overall power grid and NEV production both showed slight increases, providing further bullish support for copper cathode demand. Bulls take the initiative in forward contracts In April, the growth rate of COMEX copper inventories accelerated, approaching 130,000 short tons as of April 23. Domestically, as of April 24, China's social copper inventory stood at 181,700 mt, achieving eight consecutive weeks of weekly destocking. It fell by 195,300 mt from the year's high and was 223,000 mt lower than the 404,700 mt recorded in the same period last year. In April, the decline in LME copper inventories slowed, hovering around 210,000 mt, while the ratio of cancelled warrants dropped from a high of 50% to 37%. As of April 18, both non-commercial long and short positions of COMEX No. 1 copper decreased compared to the previous week, with net long positions dropping by 4,764 lots to 19,477 lots. Meanwhile, LME copper investment fund long and short positions both increased, with net long positions rising by 1,479 lots to 29,842 lots. The domestic futures market exhibited a contango structure, with long positions in far-month contracts dominating, indicating bullish sentiment among major funds regarding future prices. From the supply-demand balance table, as the peak consumption season approaches, downstream demand is rebounding while upstream supply is pulling back, leading to a gradual improvement in the supply-demand structure. The probability of a supply-demand gap in Q2 is increasing. Against this backdrop, market optimism is rising, providing some bullish support for prices. From a macro perspective, the US economic data for March, including ISM Manufacturing PMI, CPI, and PPI, showed steady performance. The impact of US tariff policies is expected to be reflected in April's data, and subsequent attention should be paid to the progress of negotiations between the US and other countries. On the supply side, the tight supply of copper raw materials has intensified, with import concentrate TC continuing to decline, and tariff policies affecting copper scrap imports. However, the current production cuts in copper smelting are relatively small, with April mainly focused on maintenance. By-products such as sulphuric acid and gold can partially offset smelter losses. On the consumption side, as downstream consumption gradually recovers, the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises has significantly increased. The shortage of secondary copper raw materials has also stimulated market consumption of copper cathode. However, the impact of US tariff policies is gradually becoming apparent, making it difficult to be optimistic about future copper consumption. Overall, the fundamentals of copper provide moderate support, but US tariff policies continue to trouble the market, limiting the rebound potential of copper prices. It is expected that SHFE copper prices may struggle to break new highs in May, with caution advised against the risk of jumping initially and then pulling back. (Source: Futures Daily)