Chilean miner AMSA and some core copper smelters in China finalised the pricing scheme for mid-year long-term contract copper concentrate TCs on July 1, abandoning the traditional fixed TC model for the first time and switching to a floor-index-linked pricing mechanism. It is reported that, as spot copper concentrate TCs had been consistently hitting historic lows, this brought multiple divergences to the mid-year long-term contract negotiations. China’s smelters have historically used fixed TCs for mid-year long-term contracts, but AMSA insisted on switching to index-based pricing this time, and ultimately the two sides reached an innovative compromise.

[Tungsten Flash] SMM, July 1: The tungsten market mainly saw weak consolidation today. Trading volume at the mine side contracted, downstream smelters had few orders, and with inventories at high levels, enterprises mostly purchased tungsten concentrates and recycled raw materials as needed. Some traders mainly pushed for lower prices. The negotiation center for spot orders of 55% tungsten concentrates was around 440,000-460,000 yuan per standard tonne. SMM 65% tungsten concentrates closed at 491,000 yuan per standard tonne today, down 10,000 yuan per standard tonne from yesterday, but still up 56,500 yuan per standard tonne from early June. Going forward, key focus will be on mine tender transactions and the new round of long-term contract information.

[SMM Tin Midday Commentary: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Pulled Back After Hitting Highs, Consolidating Around 390,000 This Morning]

[Mideast Situation Adds New Uncertainties, Aluminum Prices Continue in the Doldrums] The dispute over control of the Strait of Hormuz persists, and the resumption of navigation through the strait remains uncertain. The hawkish shift by the US Fed has boosted the US dollar index, weighing on nonferrous metal prices. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices in and outside China have fallen. In the short term, bearish factors dominate, and aluminum prices are expected to continue in the doldrums.

[SMM Morning Meeting Note: LME Zinc Sees a Large Bullish Candlestick, Daily Candlestick Center Rises] Last night, LME zinc recorded a large bullish candlestick, with the lower Bollinger Band providing support. The US dollar index first rose then fell, and inventories outside China continued to decline, supporting LME zinc's center to edge up. Last night, SHFE zinc recorded a bullish candlestick, with the lower Bollinger Band providing support from below and the middle band acting as resistance. Currently, domestic TC is low, and China's zinc ingot production in July is expected to continue to decline, supporting SHFE zinc to rise. However, end-use consumption limits the upside of prices.

When asked, "The company extracts the following by-products during copper smelting: rhenium, germanium, indium, gallium, bismuth, selenium, tellurium, platinum, palladium, antimony, and cadmium. Is this true? And what was the annual production of each in tonnes in 2025? Please reply, thank you!" Tongling Nonferrous Metals responded on the investor interaction platform on June 29 that the company fully leverages its comprehensive resource utilization advantages, recovering associated platinum, palladium, rhenium, and other rare and scattered metals during the copper smelting process to enhance by-product profit contribution, and the overall production volume accounts for a relatively small share. The company's overall operating performance of the rare and scattered metals business in 2025 has been reflected in the annual report. Tongling Nonferrous Metals replied to investor questions on the investor interaction platform on June 29: (1) The company's main business includes copper ore mining and beneficiation, smelting, and copper processing, and it has competitive advantages in mineral resource reserves, copper smelting, and deep processing. It is one of the most comprehensive integrated copper producers in China, with horizontal expansion and vertical extension of its industry chain, giving it a competitive edge in industry chain integration. (2) As of now, the specific projects related to the industrial park mentioned above are still in the preliminary survey and proposal evaluation stage; no final decisions have been made, nor have internal reviews or relevant administrative approval procedures been carried out. There is a degree of uncertainty about project implementation. The company will strictly comply with information disclosure laws, regulations, and regulatory requirements, and will perform its information disclosure obligations in a timely manner when the projects achieve substantive progress and meet disclosure thresholds. All material matters of the company are subject to the formal announcements published on the designated information disclosure media. Investors are advised to invest rationally and be mindful of investment risks. (3) Regarding the client situation of Jinxin Copper Branch, please refer to the company's announcements on statutory information disclosure platforms. Tongling Nonferrous Metals stated on the investor interaction platform on June 29: The copper wire rod capacity of Jinxin Copper Branch is in the process of gradual release; subsequently, based on market demand and its existing capacity, it will effectively plan capacity to ensure efficient resource allocation. As of now, Jinxin Copper's orders are normal and all operations are proceeding in an orderly manner. For specific orders and shipment volumes, please refer to the company's announcements on the statutory information disclosure platform. In response to the questions: "1. What was the average selling price of the 6.21 million mt of sulphuric acid produced in 2025? And what were the sales volume and average selling price of sulphuric acid in the first five months of this year? 2. What is the specific reason for the asset impairment loss of 1.627 billion yuan in Q1 2026? With non-ferrous metal prices generally rising, is the company's earlier provision for inventory impairment hiding profits? After the inventory for which impairment has been provided is sold, will profit be restored by an equivalent amount? 3. The company holds 600 million shares of Tongguan Copper Foil. Based on today's closing price of 200 yuan, the equity position has an unrealized gain of 119 billion yuan. Does the company plan to sell at an opportune time to realize the investment gain?" Tongling Nonferrous Metals replied on the investor interaction platform on June 26: 1. Regarding sulphuric acid sales volume and average selling price: Sulphuric acid is a by-product of the company's smelting process, and its selling price is market-oriented, affected by multiple factors including regional supply-demand patterns and demand from downstream fertilizer and chemical industries. The company's overall operating performance of the sulphuric acid business in 2025 has been reflected in the annual report, and 2026 operating data should be referred to in subsequent periodic reports disclosed by the company. The company will continue to monitor the sulphuric acid market and dynamically optimize production and sales pace to maximize the operating profit of by-products. 2. For the reasons for the Q1 2026 asset impairment provision, please refer to the company's Announcement on Asset Impairment Provision (Announcement No.: 2026-024) disclosed on cninfo.com.cn on April 29, 2026. The company strictly follows accounting standards for enterprise accounting treatment, and there is no hiding of profits. According to accounting standards, when inventory for which a price decline provision has been made is subsequently sold, the corresponding inventory price decline provision is simultaneously written off, reducing the current period's operating costs, thereby positively restoring profit for the period. However, it is not an equivalent amount; the write-off amount is capped at the originally provided amount for that inventory and will not generate additional profit beyond the original provision. 3. Tongguan Copper Foil is a controlled subsidiary of the company, and the company holds 72.38% of its equity. Its financial data are fully consolidated into the company's consolidated financial statements. From an accounting perspective, fluctuations in the secondary market share price of a controlled subsidiary represent changes in market valuation only. In cases where equity is not disposed of, or is partially disposed of without losing control, it will not affect the net profit in the company's consolidated statements for the current period. As of now, the company has no plan to sell Tongguan Copper Foil shares opportunistically. If equity disposal is involved in the future, the company will strictly comply with state-owned asset supervision and securities regulatory requirements, fulfilling review procedures and information disclosure obligations. An investor asked on the investor interaction platform: Dear Board Secretary, regarding the Mirador Phase II (Mirador) Mining Contract Amendment (Adenda), its status was updated from "awaiting signature" to "signed/notification process" when a shareholder inquired on April 21, 2026. May I ask whether ECSA, controlled by the company, has now received formal notification of the signing of the mining contract for the Mirador Phase II copper mine project? Tongling Nonferrous Metals stated on the investor interaction platform on May 21 that as of now, China Railway Construction Tongguan Investment Co., Ltd. (of which ECSA is the main operating entity for the Mirador copper mine) has not yet received formal notification of the signing of the mining contract for the Mirador Phase II copper mine project. Please refer to the company's announcements on the statutory information disclosure platform for updates. Tongling Nonferrous Metals released its Q1 report showing: The company achieved operating revenue of 64.67 billion yuan in Q1 2026, up 83.61% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 1.338 billion yuan, up 19.12% YoY; and net cash flow from operating activities was 6.632 billion yuan, up 473.09% YoY. Tongling Nonferrous Metals announced in its Q1 report matters concerning project delays at a controlled subsidiary: In recent years, Ecuador's political situation has been volatile with frequent personnel changes, and leadership changes at the competent ministry have led to personnel changes at the working level, greatly affecting policy continuity and administrative efficiency, thereby impacting the progress of signing the Mining Contract for the Mirador Phase II copper mine project. Since 2025, the company and ECSA have strengthened engagement with the relevant authorities of Ecuador's new government through multiple channels and at various levels. The latest round of preliminary negotiations for the Mining Contract for the Mirador Phase II copper mine project has been completed and submitted to the competent ministry for review. Given the significant differences in investment and operating environments between Ecuador and China, the volatile political situation, and the lack of stability in the legal environment, the specific timing for signing the Mining Contract for the Mirador Phase II project is still uncertain. As a result of the aforementioned factors, the formal commissioning of the Mirador Phase II project, once completed, can only commence after its Mining Contract is signed. For details, please refer to the company's Announcement on Subsidiary Project Delay disclosed on cninfo.com.cn on January 5, 2026. Tongling Nonferrous Metals disclosed in its 2025 annual report: In 2025, the company achieved total operating revenue of 172.825 billion yuan, up 18.68% YoY; net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.415 billion yuan, down 14.02% YoY. Tongling Nonferrous Metals announced: In 2025, the company overcame unfavourable factors such as tight copper concentrate supply and low TCs, and carried out in-depth activities to increase production and efficiency, and reduce costs and tap potential. In 2025, the company produced 197,700 mt of copper in self-produced copper concentrates, 1.9548 million mt of copper cathode, 400,700 mt of semi-finished copper products, 6.2185 million mt of sulphuric acid, 20.51 mt of gold, 579.55 mt of silver, 376,200 mt of iron ore concentrates, and 382,100 mt of sulphur concentrates, successfully achieving the annual production tasks. Regarding its main business activities, Tongling Nonferrous Metals stated in its 2025 annual report: The company is a large-scale integrated copper producer covering copper mining and beneficiation, smelting, processing, and trading, with main products including copper cathode, sulphuric acid, gold, silver, copper foil, and copper plate/sheet and strip. The company has deep technical accumulation, a leading industry position, and significant competitive advantages in copper mining and beneficiation, copper smelting, and copper foil processing. The 2026 operating plan disclosed by Tongling Nonferrous Metals in its 2025 annual report shows: 1. Core operating indicators In 2026, the company will strive to achieve various core product production targets, specifically: 227,600 mt of copper in self-produced copper concentrates, 2.108 million mt of copper cathode, 455,000 mt of semi-finished copper products, 22,000 kg of gold, 650 mt of silver, 7.07 million mt of sulphuric acid, 344,000 mt of iron ore concentrates (60%), and 308,000 mt of sulphur concentrates (35%), anchoring production and operational objectives with quantified indicators. A research report from Guosen Securities published on April 22 indicated that the company's copper smelting segment's profitability is industry-leading. In 2025, Jinlong Copper achieved a net profit of 800 million yuan; if simply converted by capacity, Jinguan Copper Branch's net profit was approximately 1.22 billion yuan. Excluding the newly commissioned Jinxin Branch, the three existing smelters had a combined annual net profit of 2.64 billion yuan. The decent profit of copper smelters including the company in 2025 can be attributed to factors such as raw material inventory cycles, high sulphuric acid prices, high copper smelting recovery rates, and high prices for by-product gold and silver. Compared with several other large copper smelters, whose main smelters had net profit margins mostly around 0.5%, Tongling Nonferrous Metals' main smelters all had net profit margins around 2%, significantly above the industry average. Mirador Phase II may come online in August. The company expects to produce 228,000 mt of copper concentrates in 2026. Based on past trends, domestic copper ore production is 50,000 mt per year, and Mirador Phase I production is 130,000 mt per year, so Mirador Phase II is scheduled to produce 50,000 mt in 2026, implying production start-up around August 2026. In 2025, China Railway Construction Tongguan Investment achieved a net profit of 1.93 billion yuan, and the Mirador project company reached a net profit of 3.79 billion yuan, demonstrating strong profitability. Mirador Phase II mining and beneficiation costs are only about 70% of Phase I. If Phase I costs are 28,000 yuan/mt, a rough calculation puts Phase II costs at 19,600 yuan/mt. If by-product gold and silver partially offset copper costs, Mirador Phase II costs could be negative. Risk warnings: risk of wild swings in copper prices, risk of copper concentrate TC declines.

In June, copper cathode production stood at 1.145 million mt, down 2.09% MoM;

Zimbabwe's Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube revealed during the World Economic Forum in Dalian that the country is actively considering using its abundant mineral resources as collateral through "resource‑linked debt instruments" to finance road and railway construction projects in cooperation with China. This model aims to leverage future revenue from natural resources as loan guarantees to address the huge funding gap for infrastructure development. Ncube said Zimbabwe has held preliminary discussions with China Railway Group regarding such financing arrangements. He told reporters: "We have discussed resource‑linked debt instruments and hope to use them in the future to support infrastructure development, particularly in the road and railway sectors." Under the envisaged plan, Zimbabwe would assess project costs, toll revenue potential, and the return cycle of required resource investments to determine the scale of resource collateral and the repayment path. As Africa's largest lithium producer, Zimbabwe possesses rich mineral resources, but years of economic mismanagement and political instability have left its infrastructure severely lagging. The African Development Bank estimates that the country needs approximately US$34 billion to modernise its transport and logistics network. The proposed resource‑for‑infrastructure plan resembles the model of the US$7 billion Sicomines copper‑cobalt joint venture in the Democratic Republic of Congo with Chinese companies. As early as September 2025, Zimbabwe's President, during a meeting in Beijing with senior executives of China Railway Group, promoted a railway rehabilitation cooperation plan totalling US$533 million. The project is to be implemented by Chuantie International, a subsidiary of China Railway Group with extensive experience in African projects. The scope of work includes repair and reinforcement of existing lines and bridges, modernisation of signal systems, procurement of 17 locomotives and 209 freight wagons, construction of five new stations, and the key trunk line connecting Beitbridge and Harare – a strategic corridor leading directly to South Africa, which is vital to Zimbabwe's foreign trade. Currently, the project's financing method and formal signing date are still under final negotiation. Zimbabwe's railway network was built during the colonial era and carried up to 12 million tonnes of freight annually in the 1990s. However, decades of underinvestment, equipment obsolescence, and foreign exchange shortages have caused the railway infrastructure to deteriorate continuously. Current annual freight volume has fallen to less than 3 million tonnes – only 15% of its historical peak. Many lines are overgrown with weeds, and a large number of locomotives and rolling stock have been taken out of service, directly weakening the capacity to transport bulk commodities such as lithium, chrome ore, and coal to the ports of Mozambique and South Africa. Consequently, Chinese mining enterprises operating in Zimbabwe – including Tsingshan Holding Group, Sinosteel Corporation, and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt – all face export bottlenecks for their products. The decline of the railway system has forced a large volume of freight onto roads, leading to a surge in heavy trucks, which in turn exacerbates road congestion, traffic accidents, and pavement damage, forming a vicious cycle. In response, the National Railways of Zimbabwe has incorporated this railway rehabilitation into a broader modernisation framework and has engaged in cooperation with 11 private enterprises. Among them, South Africa's Grindrod, through its subsidiary Beitbridge‑Bulawayo Railway Company, has already deployed three locomotives and 150 freight wagons to alleviate current transport pressures. At the same time, Zimbabwe is exploring collaboration with the University of Zimbabwe to leverage the university's innovation centre for localised railway technology R&D and talent training, building capacity for long‑term operations. Analysts point out that if this railway rehabilitation is successfully implemented, it will not only fully restore Zimbabwe's deteriorated railway network, but also provide critical logistics support for the country's US$12 billion mining target, while further deepening the strategic presence of Chinese enterprises in Zimbabwe's mining and infrastructure sectors. According to market dynamics, in recent years – and especially since the beginning of this year – lithium ore shipments from Zimbabwe have been persistently delayed at ports, with insufficient inland transport capacity being one of the main bottlenecks hindering smooth cargo arrivals. As the relevant logistics system upgrades are put into effect, this situation is expected to be significantly alleviated, and the transport efficiency of lithium materials will be notably improved, thereby injecting solid momentum into the stabilisation of global lithium supply. Sources: Mining.com , Azure Track Rail, and SMM

The iron ore market is currently locked in a supply-heavy, demand-weak stalemate. While fundamental pressure is pushing for lower prices, strong resistance from high-cost producers is creating a floor, suggesting a range-bound, sideways treading market for the week ahead. Here’s a breakdown of the key factors: Supply: Global Market Remains Loose Arrivals Surge: This week, iron ore arrivals on China port reached 29.33 million tons, a notable 6% increase both week-on-week and year-on-year. Global shipments to China are arriving steadily and in significant volumes. Persistent Inventory: Port inventories continue to be a significant drag. SMM data places 35-port stocks at ~148 million tons, while more source reports up to 170 million tons. Despite high volumes, there is little to no progress on destocking. Demand: Downstream Weakening, Mills Squeezed External Competition: Downstream steel demand continues to soften. The China domestic market is facing further pressure from low-priced steel billet imports from Indonesia, which are grabbing market share. Profit Squeeze: Steel mills are caught in a vise. Upstream, coal and coke prices remain strong and resilient, while downstream demand is absent, continuously eroding steelmaking profits. Production Cuts Expected: Market sentiment is overwhelmingly pessimistic regarding near-term demand. We anticipate both steel mill purchase intent and molten iron production to move lower in tandem. Spot traders report extreme difficulty in securing profitable transactions. News & Negotiations: Stalled Talks & Tangled Factors The coal and coke sectors continue to trended upward sentiment from breaking news, supporting strong price expectations. Meanwhile, the outcomes of the recent closed-door meeting between major steel mills and traders are split between two major market narratives. Price Floor: Resistance from High-Cost Producers Crucially, the current iron ore price has corrected to a very sensitive level—effectively the cost line for many high-cost mines and a significant psychological support point for traders. Both groups are now actively resisting any further price declines.

SMM News, June 30: In the metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market generally fell. SHFE copper edged down, SHFE aluminum fell 2.13%, SHFE lead fell 1.02%, SHFE zinc fell 0.16%, SHFE tin edged up, and SHFE nickel fell 1.8%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 1.41%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 1.56%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 4.82%, the most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.24%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.8%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore rose 0.2%, HRC edged up, rebar fell 0.13%, and stainless steel fell 0.34%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.55%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.18%. In the overseas base metals market, as of 11:36, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.24%, LME aluminum edged up, LME lead fell 0.18%, LME zinc fell 0.19%, LME tin rose 0.44%, and LME nickel rose 0.34%. In precious metals, as of 11:36, COMEX gold fell 1.48%, COMEX silver fell 1.19%. In domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 2.67%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 2.16%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 3.29%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract was flat at 290.65 yuan/g. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping (European route) futures contract fell 1.7% to 3,662.5 points. As of 11:36 on June 30, some futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Zinc: In the Tianjin market, #0 zinc ingot mainstream traded at 24,030-24,250 yuan/mt, Zijin traded at 24,220-24,530 yuan/mt, #1 zinc ingot traded around 24,100-24,240 yuan/mt, Zijin against the 2608 contract reported a discount of around 30-40 yuan/mt, Huxin quoted at 25,090 yuan/mt, #0 zinc ingot against the 2608 contract reported a discount of around 50-100 yuan/mt, Tianjin market versus Shanghai market reported a discount of around 40 yuan/mt. Today contract rollover quotations... Macro Front Domestic side: [National Bureau of Statistics: June manufacturing PMI at 50.3%, China's economic prosperity level rebounded somewhat] According to NBS data, in June, the manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, returning to expansion territory. By enterprise size, large enterprises' PMI was 50.7%, down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, still above the threshold; medium-sized enterprises' PMI was 50.5%, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous month, above the threshold; small enterprises' PMI was 48.2%, down 0.3 percentage points month-on-month, below the threshold. From the sub-indexes perspective, among the five sub-indexes that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index and new orders index were above the threshold, while the raw material inventory index, employment index, and supplier delivery time index were all below the threshold. Huo Lihui, chief statistician of the Service Survey Center at the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), commented on China's PMI for June 2026: In June, the non-manufacturing business activity index stood at 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a rebound in non-manufacturing activity. The expansion in the services sector accelerated. The services business activity index was 50.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, showing an improvement in activity. By industry, business activity indexes for sectors such as telecommunication, radio and television, and satellite transmission services; internet, software, and information technology services; monetary and financial services; and insurance were all in the higher expansion zone above 55.0%, with relatively rapid growth in business volume. The indexes for air transport and real estate remained below the threshold. The services business activity expectations index was 56.0%, up 0.6 percentage point from the previous month, indicating improving expectations among enterprises regarding market development. The construction sector saw some improvement. The construction business activity index was 49.0%, up 0.2 percentage point from the previous month, a marginal rebound. The construction business activity expectations index was 51.1%, continuing to indicate expansion. [PBOC conducts 669.5 billion yuan reverse repo in open market, net withdrawal of 155 billion yuan for the day] The PBOC conducted a 69.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation today, with an operation rate of 1.4%, unchanged from before. Today, 524.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repos mature. At the same time, the PBOC conducted a 600 billion yuan overnight reverse repo operation, and today 300 billion yuan overnight reverse repos mature. On the US dollar front: As of 11:36, the US dollar index rose 0.19% to 101.31. The US Supreme Court blocked Trump's attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Cook; the move was a forceful rebuke to the president's attack on the world's most important central bank. The 5-4 ruling is the latest major check on the Trump administration by the Supreme Court. Earlier this year, the court also ruled that the president does not have the authority to impose tariffs using emergency powers, a decision that shook a key pillar of the Trump administration's economic policy. The ruling released on Monday rejected the first-ever attempt by a US president to remove a Fed governor; critics have warned that such a move would undermine the central bank's independence. However, on Monday the US Supreme Court also cleared the way for Trump to fire Federal Trade Commission (FTC) members without cause; a move that grants the White House greater power and tightens control over independent regulatory agencies. According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 70.1%, and that of a cumulative 25bp hike is 29.9%. For September, the probability of unchanged rates is 37.2%, that of a 25bp cumulative hike is 48.8%, and that of a 50bp hike is 14.1%. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today’s releases include the US FHFA House Price Index MoM for April, the US S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index NSA YoY for April, the US Chicago PMI for June, the US JOLTS Job Openings for May, the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for June, the UK Q1 GDP YoY Final, the UK Q1 Current Account, Germany’s June seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany’s June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany’s June CPI MoM Preliminary, France’s June CPI MoM Preliminary, Switzerland’s June KOF Economic Barometer, Canada’s April GDP MoM, Japan’s May unemployment rate, and other data. Also, watch for: ECB President Lagarde delivers opening remarks at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, the Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting, and the US and Iran hold technical negotiations. It is also worth noting that on July 1, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will be closed for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, with northbound and southbound trading shut. The Toronto Stock Exchange will be closed for Canada Day. Other currencies: The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s June meeting showed the bank believed monetary policy needed to remain tight to eliminate surplus demand in the economy. As the minutes were compiled before Brent crude prices fell more than 10% last week, the hawkish tone reflected in them has become notably disconnected from current market moves. Currently, the market is pricing in only 10bp of further tightening by year-end, while the probability of easing by 2027 stands at 17bp. The tension for the Australian dollar lies in that, on one hand, the RBA clearly stated it is prepared to hike again if needed; on the other, the market believes rates have likely peaked. If upcoming data confirms that weaker oil prices are gradually feeding through to inflation expectations, the Australian dollar could face a repricing. Meanwhile, falling house prices in Sydney and Melbourne are adding to domestic growth risks and could reinforce the market’s dovish repricing, even as the RBA board’s rhetoric remains distinctly hawkish.((Jinshi Data APP) Crude oil: As of 11:36, oil prices in both markets edged down, with WTI falling 0.27% and Brent down 0.15%. The market was focused on possible talks between the US and Iran. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that Iran’s top priority at that time was to ensure the implementation of all provisions of the memorandum of understanding. With regard to Article 10 of the memorandum concerning the US commitment to allow Iranian oil exports, the US side had already issued the necessary permits, and Iran was following up on the implementation progress. As for Article 11 regarding the unfreezing of Iranian assets, the relevant implementation procedures were also progressing. This week, Iran would send a technical delegation to Qatar for consultations on the implementation of the memorandum of understanding, including Article 11. The spokesperson said that Iran had not yet initiated negotiations on a final agreement. According to Article 13 of the memorandum, the precondition for initiating final agreement negotiations was the commencement and continued implementation of Articles 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11. Furthermore, the spokesperson stressed that there would be no negotiations at any level between Iran and the US in the coming days. The trip by US representatives to Qatar was unrelated to the Iranian technical delegation’s visit; the Iranian delegation’s purpose in going to Qatar was to follow up on the implementation of the memorandum of understanding, including Article 11. (CCTV) According to trade sources and a document, Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) had sharply reduced its official selling prices to attract long-term buyers to lift Basrah crude from its terminals in the Middle East Gulf in July. The discount for Basrah Medium was $14 to $16 per barrel, and for Basrah Heavy, it was $16.8 to $18.8 per barrel, depending on the loading date. Discounts were larger for loadings from July 1 to 5, and smaller for loadings from July 6 to 10, and from July 11 to 31. SOMO said that buyers needed to submit their order quantities within one day of receiving the notification letter. Trade sources said that the steep discounts might attract buyers, but it remained to be seen whether passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be possible. (Jinshi Data APP) According to data from the US Department of Energy (DOE), crude oil inventories in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell by 5.5 million barrels to 325.7 million barrels, the lowest level since May 1983. The inventory decline was part of a US agreement to release 172 million barrels of crude from the reserve to fill a gap in global inventories following the Iran conflict and help push down fuel prices. US crude inventories fell rapidly in recent weeks due to strong crude exports and refining demand. From the outbreak of the conflict in late February to June 19, total US inventories, including commercial stocks and the SPR, had fallen by 111.4 million barrels to 743.3 million barrels, the lowest level since 1984. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►