As of March 16, tungsten prices in China saw a slight correction, with APT quoted at 1.505 million yuan/mt. The market's fear of high prices was released, entering a phase of rational wait-and-see. Outside China, supply remained persistently tight, with the average APT Rotterdam price at $2,200/mtu, while weekly gains in tungsten scrap prices in India and Europe exceeded 25%.

[SMM Titanium Weekly Review: Titanium Dioxide Showed Signs of Recovery; Diverging Strength Across the Titanium Industry Chain Market This Week] This week, the titanium industry chain in China showed pronounced structural divergence, with the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers across upstream and downstream segments intensifying and cost pass-through facing obstacles. Overall, the sector was characterized by a combination of weak recovery and localized strong support. Trading in upstream titanium ore and titanium slag was sluggish. Downstream processing enterprises tightly controlled costs, with procurement consistently maintained at a pace driven by rigid demand. Coupled with inventory at high levels across the industry, the raw material end remained under pressure, enterprises’ willingness to operate stayed weak, capacity release was constrained, and the supply-demand imbalance continued to stand out. In the midstream titanium dioxide segment, pressure from elevated costs of raw materials and energy sharply increased production-side strain. Enterprises held prices firm and showed a strong willingness to sell, and while domestic trade demand did not see a noticeable increase in volume—relying only on rigid-demand support—overseas markets still demonstrated a certain degree of resilience, leaving the overall market running relatively strong. The downstream sponge titanium and titanium products segments performed impressively: sponge titanium inventories remained low, and, together with robust downstream restocking demand, top-tier enterprises proactively adjusted prices, with enterprises showing strong confidence in holding prices firm. The titanium products market saw stable supply and demand: the supply-side operating rate was steady, while demand-side differentiation was evident. Civilian applications were mainly driven by rigid-demand restocking, while orders in high-end fields such as aerospace and military industries were steady. The market recovered steadily, and differences in the pace across segments of the industry chain also set the tone for subsequent market dynamics.

Next week, the US Fed will announce its interest rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections, and the market widely expects rates to remain unchanged. On the macro data front, key releases will include China's total retail sales YoY from January to February, China's industrial value-added of enterprises above designated size YoY from January to February, and the US February PPI YoY. In addition, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to France from March 14 to 17 for economic and trade consultations with the US side. LME lead, markets outside China continue to be affected by developments in the Middle East, including rising natural gas prices and hindered battery transportation, constraining both the supply and demand sides of lead. Meanwhile, China's lead ingot import window opened further, attracting overseas lead ingots into the Chinese market. In Southeast Asia, for example, spot lead circulation declined and premiums rose, which may provide some support for lead prices. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,900-1,960/mt next week. SHFE lead, as the SHFE lead 2603 contract nears delivery, suppliers have been shifting inventory and shipping to delivery warehouse, leading to a continued increase in visible lead ingot inventory. Together with growing arrivals of imported lead, this dragged the overall price center lower. At the same time, losses in secondary lead widened, and many smelters cut production or postponed the resumption of operations, while smelters' in-factory inventory declined. In the short term, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined. After the bearish impact of inventory buildup from delivery warehouse shipments is fully absorbed, attention should be paid to the possibility of lead prices stabilizing. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,400-16,850 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,350-16,650 yuan/mt. On the consumption side, downstream enterprises maintained stable production, and as lead prices fell, producers will gradually buy the dip. Supply side, production at primary lead and secondary lead enterprises is gradually recovering, while inventory pressure from enterprises' in-factory inventory eased. In addition, given the prominent losses in secondary lead, even with supplementary imported crude lead, spot discounts for primary lead and secondary lead are unlikely to widen further and may instead narrow as lead prices weaken.

◼ At the beginning of 2026, Musk’s SpaceX plan for 100 GW of annual space PV capacity ignited the A-share market, with multiple concept stocks rising by more than 30 in a single month. At the same time, however, earnings previews from leading PV companies generally showed losses for 2025, and industry fundamentals remained in a deep winter. Behind the stark divergence between the speculative frenzy around the Musk-SpaceX concept and the earnings trough, is the market overly expecting a “second growth curve,” or is this a genuine signal of industrial transformation? ◼ As the global PV industry moves from rapid expansion into a new stage of rational development, its value has gone beyond that of clean energy alone: Against the backdrop of explosive growth in AI computing power driving massive electricity demand, compounded by energy security anxiety triggered by geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, developing PV may become a core strategic choice for countries to achieve their “dual-carbon” goals, build autonomous and controllable energy systems, and reduce electricity costs for end-users. ◼ Since the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict at the end of February, the world’s four major benchmark crude oil prices have entered a rapid upward trajectory. Before the outbreak of the conflict, oil prices had remained broadly stable; however, starting on March 2, as the fighting expanded and spread to the Persian Gulf, oil prices immediately entered a sharp uptrend. Note: Shanghai crude oil prices are converted based on the settlement-date exchange rate of 1:0.15. Source: Public information, SMM. ◼ Although the impact borne by different regions varies due to differences in energy mix, geopolitical location, and policy response, the surge in imported crude oil costs driving a broad rise in energy prices has become a common challenge facing all countries. Europe is a case in point. Although Europe’s direct dependence on Middle Eastern crude oil was not high, at only about 5 according to data from energy market intelligence firm Kpler, it remained highly dependent on the region for refined products such as diesel and aviation kerosene, as well as liquefied natural gas. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz caused by the conflict directly pushed up Europe’s terminal energy prices—fuel prices at gas stations across the region surged, and natural gas prices broke above EUR 60 per megawatt hour on the 9th, reaching a new high since 2022. The continued rise in energy prices is bound to transmit into broader areas of the economy, increasing overall inflationary pressure and once again underscoring the importance of building secure and controllable energy systems. Accelerating the Clean Transition of the Global Energy Mix, the PV Industry Advances Toward High-Quality Development ◼ The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that, despite economic pressure, global electricity demand momentum remains strong in 2025, with growth rates in 2025 and 2026 expected to be 3.3% and 3.7%, respectively. Data from 2020 to 2025 showed that the global power market followed a trajectory of continued overall growth alongside structural transition toward cleaner energy , with the share of renewable energy sources such as solar rising significantly, although fossil fuels still accounted for the dominant share. ◼ According to the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions Scenario, solar power’s share in the energy mix is expected to rise from less than 2% at present to 12% in 2035 and 28% in 2050. This means PV installations are still far from reaching their ceiling, with substantial room for future growth. ◼ The past five years marked a critical period in which the global PV market shifted from rapid expansion toward rational development. The IEA forecasts that total global new PV installations over the next five years will reach about 3.68 TW, accounting for nearly 80% of new renewable energy additions over the same period, and are expected to become the world’s largest renewable energy source by the end of 2030. This is mainly due to its widening economic advantages—by 2024, the cost of solar PV power generation had already fallen 41% below the cheapest fossil fuel alternative, and these cost advantages are driving rapid growth in both PV installations and power generation share. Source: IEA, public information, SMM. ◼ As a key carrier of PV installations, especially the backbone of utility-scale power plants, solar panel mounting bracket installations are expected to maintain annual average growth of 5%-6% alongside installation growth. Specifically, to achieve annual average new PV installations of 500-600 GW, corresponding module demand is estimated at about 550-700 GW based on the capacity ratio. Assuming a conventional 1:1 module-to-bracket configuration, the annual average installation scale of brackets required for utility-scale PV plants alone would reach at least 250-300 GW. Source: public information, SMM. Escalating Challenges Reshape the Development Logic of the Global PV Market ◼ The PV industry is undergoing resonating internal and external pressures. Internally, the global economic slowdown has become intertwined with social issues, while the industry itself has entered a rational development stage after rapid expansion, making slower installation growth a certain trend. Externally, global trade frictions continue to intensify, with the US, Europe, and other regions erecting nearly insurmountable cost gaps through barriers such as anti-dumping and countervailing duties as well as local content requirements. Challenge 1: Global Trade Frictions and Escalating Trade Barriers ◼ In recent years, countries have introduced a series of policies to build PV trade barriers and reshape the global competitive landscape of the industry. The US imposed “double anti-” duties of as much as 3,403.96% on PV products from four Southeast Asian countries, South Africa raised module tariffs to 10%, and Brazil increased out-of-quota tariffs sharply from 9.6% to 25% through a quota system. Market access requirements for PV in India and Türkiye have also become increasingly stringent. Meanwhile, new supply chain control rules represented by the EU’s Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA) have extended trade barriers deeper into the industry chain. By setting red lines on “third-country dependence,” they have established quantitative standards for supply chain restructuring. This series of changes has reshaped the competitive dimensions of the international PV industry and significantly raised the threshold for PV product imports and exports. Source: public information, SMM. Challenge 2: New Dynamics in the PV Market, with Incentive and Restrictive Policies Coexisting Source: public information, SMM. Outside China Enterprises Pursue Multi-Dimensional Breakthroughs Through Internal and External Efforts ◼ The practices of solar panel mounting bracket enterprises in the US, India, and other countries show that the key to coping with policy shifts overseas lies in combining “service-oriented” and “high-value” strategies. First, vertically extending from single-equipment sales to a service ecosystem covering the entire life cycle. Second, deepening horizontally by continuously optimizing business structure and extracting value from higher value-added segments. Solution 1: Launch Dedicated Plans Closely Aligned with Government Policies and Local Demand ◼ The global PV industry has now entered a new stage deeply reshaped by both market forces and policy. The growth logic of enterprises is shifting from the past single dimension of relying on technology iteration and cost declines to multi-dimensional competition closely integrating complex policy environments with localized demand. Against this backdrop, the key to corporate success lies in accurately interpreting policy intentions and launching development plans aligned with both market and policy. Tata Power Renewable Energy Limited (TPREL) precisely aligned with India’s “PM Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana” and launched the dedicated “solar for every home” plan while continuing to provide customized PV solutions. In Q1 FY2026, it added 220 MW of new rooftop PV installations, surging 416% YoY. TPREL also actively responded to local manufacturing policies by establishing 4.3 GW of solar cell and module capacity, ensuring supply while avoiding import tariffs. Through the synergy of “policy response + local capacity + customized services,” TPREL has effectively translated policy dividends into market competitiveness and steadily consolidated its leading position in India’s PV market. Solution 2: Use Acquisitions as a Link to Integrate Resources and Extend from Single Products to the Entire Industry Chain ◼ Competition in the global PV industry has fully escalated into a contest of entire industry chain system integration capabilities, and enterprises’ growth engines are shifting from past reliance on advantages in a single segment to a new model of providing integrated solutions through resource integration. In 2025, Nextracker used acquisitions as the core to integrate resources across the full chain, successively acquiring foundation engineering firms such as Solar Pile International and Ojjo, module supporting firms such as Origami Solar, and electrical system firms such as Bentek, thereby building a full-chain product matrix spanning structural, electrical, and digital solutions. Its performance continued to surge, with revenue rising from $1.9 billion in FY2023 to $3.4 billion in the trailing twelve months ended September 2025. It ultimately announced its transformation into a comprehensive energy solutions provider by renaming itself Nextpower, targeting revenue of more than $5.6 billion in FY2030. This strategy enabled its successful transformation from a single-product supplier into an entire industry chain service provider, solidifying its leading position in the global market. Solution 3: Optimize Business Structure ◼ Trade protectionism in the current PV market continues to intensify, with various trade barriers being layered on one after another. In response to this challenge, PV enterprises can achieve the dual objectives of “compliant operations” and “market retention” through business structure optimization. To avoid the equity constraints on FEOC under the US OBBB Act, Canadian Solar Inc. initiated a US business restructuring with its controlling shareholder CSIQ: it established two new joint ventures to separately manage PV and energy storage businesses, with its own stake set at 24.9% to precisely meet compliance requirements. At the same time, it transferred out 75.1% equity in three overseas plants supplying the US market, receiving a one-off consideration of 352 million yuan. This move enabled Canadian Solar Inc. to retain earnings from the US market through dividends and rental income. In the first three quarters of 2025, it achieved net profit of 990 million yuan, while large-scale energy storage shipments rose 32% YoY. After the adjustment, it focused on strengthening its advantages in non-US markets and successfully stabilized its global business layout with a compliant structure, providing a typical model for the industry in addressing trade barriers. ◼ For Chinese enterprises, in the face of trade frictions and overseas capacity gaps, they need to break through via three paths—“building plants near core markets, reducing costs and improving efficiency through technological innovation, and coordinating both within and outside the industry chain”— by pursuing localized deployment in Southeast Asia, Mexico, and other regions to avoid frequent trade frictions; promoting standardized production and high-end product R&D to enhance competitiveness; and building a “China + overseas” dual-circulation supply chain to stabilize costs. However, overseas expansion still faces challenges such as land and environmental protection costs, talent shortages, and supply chain fluctuations, requiring enterprises to conduct sound risk assessments, leverage policy support, and improve overseas investment service systems. Only by deeply integrating scientific capacity deployment, technological innovation, and industry chain coordination can the mounting bracket industry upgrade from “Made in China” to “Globally Intelligent Manufacturing” and achieve long-term development under the “dual carbon” goals. New Requirements Under the 15th Five-Year Plan, New Topics for PV Enterprises ◼ In a global market full of uncertainties, the consistency and strength of domestic policy have provided fertile ground for the growth of China’s solar panel mounting bracket enterprises. The newly released 15th Five-Year Plan further clarified China’s path for energy and industrial development. On the one hand, the construction of a new-type power system centered on consumption capacity has been listed as a priority task, and green manufacturing and full life cycle management have been formally incorporated into the assessment system. On the other hand, technological self-reliance and self-strengthening together with new quality productive forces have replaced scale competition as the main line of the new development stage. This series of changes signals that the country is driving a profound shift from “competing on capacity” to “competing on system value,” with the core goal of achieving autonomous and controllable energy structure. It is estimated that after the Two Sessions, various departments will successively roll out detailed plans to promote the full implementation of the blueprint. ◼ Key implementation measures include: 1) establishing a “dual controls” system for total carbon emissions and carbon intensity, while improving incentive and restraint mechanisms; 2) vigorously developing non-fossil energy and promoting the efficient use of fossil energy, while strengthening the construction of a new-type power system to ensure stable supply of green electricity; 3) applying both “addition and subtraction” by fostering green and low-carbon industries and promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industry; 4) in addition, accelerating the green transformation of production and lifestyles to consolidate the foundation for green development. ◼ From the perspective of regional development layout, during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China’s PV industry will show characteristics of regional coordination: north-west China will become the strategic focus by virtue of its natural endowments, exporting electricity through cross-provincial green electricity trading and other means to achieve two-way matching between energy resources and power load; eastern regions, by contrast, will focus on local consumption by high-energy-consuming industries and zero-carbon industrial parks. Source: public information, SMM. ◼ SMM forecasts that China’s new PV installations are expected to reach 208 GW in 2025 and continue growing at an annual average rate of 9% over the next five years, exceeding 292 GW by the end of the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Utility-scale PV will remain dominant, with its installation share staying above 50%. Based on the same logic, we estimate that China’s PV installation market will maintain annual incremental growth of at least 100-120 GW. Source: public information, SMM. ◼ Focusing on China’s steel consumption market for solar panel mounting brackets, SMM estimates that annual steel consumption in China’s PV mounting bracket sector will average about 4-4.5 million mt from 2026 to 2030, accounting for about 30% of total steel consumption in the PV industry over the same period (based on 2026 data). Note: only installation demand for utility-scale PV mounting brackets is included, excluding distributed steel structures, replacement from existing asset depreciation, and exports. Source: public information, SMM. SMM Ferrous Consulting Based on its understanding of the global steel industry chain and regional markets, as well as its strong industry database and network resources, SMM is committed to providing clients with consulting services across the upstream, midstream, and downstream industry chain. Services include market supply and demand research and forecasts, market entry strategies, competitor cost research, and more, covering end-use industry from iron ore, coal, coke, and steel. SMM Ferrous has successfully served more than 300 Fortune Global 500 companies, China Top 500 companies, central state-owned enterprises, state-owned enterprises, publicly listed firms, and start-ups. 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[Zinc Fundamental Trading Logic Amid the Middle East Conflict: Risk Identification and Opportunity Capture] Global geopolitical conflicts have continued unabated, and news of the recent Middle East conflict has emerged frequently. What impact will this have on the zinc industry? This article provides an analysis from both fundamental and market perspectives:

Next week, key macroeconomic data releases include the US February ISM Manufacturing PMI, US February ADP employment figures, and China's official February Manufacturing PMI; additionally, the US Fed will release the Beige Book. Meanwhile, overseas geopolitical tensions remain prominent, with uncertainties in US-Iran conflicts fueling strong market risk-off sentiment. On the LME lead front, overseas lead inventory surged by over 50,000 mt during the Chinese New Year holiday. Although stocks declined post-holiday, the high inventory base continued to significantly suppress lead prices, preventing them from breaking above $2,000/mt. Recently, widespread power outages in the US due to winter storms boosted heating demand, driving natural gas prices higher. This, to some extent, increased smelting costs for lead ore and lead ingots, providing short-term support for lead prices. LME lead is expected to trade between $1,950-2,000/mt next week. For SHFE lead, post-holiday inventory buildup in the lead market was severe, with stocks rising simultaneously at smelters and social warehouses, becoming a major drag on prices. Notably, scrap battery prices rose steadily after the holiday, widening losses for secondary lead producers and prompting some smelters to delay resumption plans, which will ease future lead ingot inventory pressure. Meanwhile, as downstream enterprises resume operations, focus will be on lead consumption recovery digesting lead inventories. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is forecast to fluctuate between 16,650-17,000 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,500-17,500 yuan/mt. Next week, lead-acid battery enterprises are expected to largely resume production, and with pre-holiday lead ingot inventories gradually being consumed, rigid demand restocking is anticipated. On the supply side, secondary lead smelters delayed resumption and face significant losses, limiting spot discounts for secondary refined lead. For primary lead, supplies will re-enter the market after delivery next week, and with high smelter inventories, spot discounts may widen.

[Zinc Price "Year-End Hurdle": Pre-Holiday Hedging and Post-Holiday Pace Management Suggestions]With the 2026 Chinese New Year approaching and the last trading week before the holiday, SMM has summarized several key points to focus on in the zinc market before and after the holiday:

After facing opposition from Hungary and Slovakia, the European Commission is preparing to proceed with its plan to "fully halt imports of Russian natural gas by the end of 2027" on Tuesday, and will take legal measures to ensure the smooth implementation of the plan. The European Commission had previously formulated an energy roadmap, hoping to end dependence on Russian natural gas through legal means. This is a response to the international situation following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as an effort to enhance its own energy security and promote energy transition. According to CCTV reports, on Monday local time, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó stated that Hungary and Slovakia jointly vetoed a proposal at the EU Council of Energy Ministers meeting held that day, which called for the European Commission to make progress on the "plan to terminate imports of Russian energy" by June. Szijjártó pointed out that the veto aimed to demonstrate to the EU that the government cannot allow Hungary to bear energy security risks. He added that the EU's plan to require member states to eliminate their dependence on Russian energy would cause a significant surge in domestic natural gas prices in Hungary if implemented. It is reported that the European Commission next plans to stipulate through legal means that the import of Russian pipeline natural gas and liquefied natural gas will be banned from January 1, 2026, although the expiration dates of certain contracts will be later. The European Commission's proposal also mentions that short-term Russian natural gas contracts signed before June 17, 2025, will have a one-year transition period ending on June 17, 2026. Longer-term natural gas import contracts will also be banned, with a deadline of January 1, 2028, which is also the date when the EU will completely cease using Russian natural gas. Dan Jørgensen, the EU's Energy Commissioner, stated on Monday that the EU's ban measures will have sufficient legal force to allow companies to invoke the "force majeure" clause to legally terminate their natural gas contracts with Russia without facing legal risks. Jørgensen claimed: "Since this is an energy ban, companies will not face legal issues as a result. This is force majeure, just like sanctions." Bypassing the Veto Power Slovakia and Hungary have consistently sought to maintain close political and economic ties with Russia, and are still importing Russian natural gas through pipelines. They have stated that switching to alternative energy sources would increase energy costs and economic burdens. They have vowed to block sanctions on Russian energy, which typically require the unanimous consent of all EU member states. EU officials have stated that in order to bypass this issue, the European Commission plans to adopt a new legal procedure that does not require the unanimous consent of all countries, but rather the support of a "qualified majority" of member states and the European Parliament to pass. Although most EU member states have expressed support for the natural gas ban, officials claim that some natural gas importing countries have expressed concerns about the risk of economic penalties or arbitration faced by companies due to breach of contract. "We fully support this plan in principle, with the aim of ensuring that we find the right solution and provide the maximum level of security for companies," French Industry Minister Marc Ferracci said on Monday.

[SMM Analysis: May draws to a close! Glass prices fall by nearly 1 yuan/m²] Current glass quotations for May are as follows: 2.0mm single-layer coating (12.8-13.4 yuan/m²); 2.0mm double-layer coating (13.8-14.4 yuan/m²); 3.2mm single-layer coating (21-22 yuan/m²); 3.2mm double-layer coating (22-23 yuan/m²); 2.0mm back glass (11.5-12.5 yuan/m²). As of now, glass prices in the market have been adjusted downward multiple times in May. The mainstream quotation for 2.0mm glass was 13.8 yuan/m² at the beginning of the month, and had fallen to 13.2 yuan/m² by month-end, representing a significant decrease. This month, module enterprises have shown low purchase willingness, and overall price negotiations have mainly focused on driving down prices. Given the continued downward trend in module scheduled production, it is expected that new order glass prices will continue to decline in June.

After the conclusion of the CLNB 2025 (10th) New Energy Industry Chain Expo hosted by SMM, SMM has meticulously organized a field trip, composed of representatives from companies worldwide, including Atlantic Lithium, German Mineral Resources Agency (DERA), ING Wholesale Banking, and LG Energy Solution, etc. to visit multiple enterprises in the new energy industry chain.