SMM June 16 News: Metals Market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic and overseas markets showed mixed performance. LME tin led the gains with a 2.54% increase, while SHFE tin rose 1.52%. SHFE aluminum fell 1.8%, and LME aluminum dropped 4.52%, with the rest of the metals posting % changes within 1%. Alumina main contract fell 1.5%, and cast aluminum main contract declined 1.41%. Overnight, ferrous metals generally fell. Iron ore rose 0.39%, hot-rolled coil edged up 0.18%, and stainless steel gained 1.72%, while declines for the remaining metals were relatively small. For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 0.7% and coke dipped 0.36%. Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold rose 2.18% and COMEX silver jumped 3.07%. Domestically, SHFE gold gained 1.77% and SHFE silver climbed 2.49%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:44 AM on June 16: Macro Front Domestically: [NDRC and other departments: Launch a three-year action plan targeting energy conservation and carbon reduction upgrades in key sectors] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments decided to organize and implement a three-year action plan targeting energy conservation and carbon reduction upgrades in key sectors including steel, aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, methanol, and coal-fired power. It was mentioned that these key industries account for large-scale, high-intensity energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, making them the top priority for improving energy efficiency, reducing coal consumption, and lowering carbon emissions. Starting in 2026, the plan will focus on nine sectors—steel, aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, methanol, and coal-fired power—to fully implement energy conservation and carbon reduction upgrades over three years, driving enterprises to elevate their energy and carbon efficiency levels as much as possible and significantly improve the industry's green, low-carbon development. Starting in 2028, the implementation scope is to be further expanded based on actual conditions, with additional sectors advanced progressively, and various regions can proceed in an orderly manner ahead of schedule in line with work needs. [PBOC's reverse repo delivers a net injection of 206.5 billion yuan today] The People's Bank of China conducted 425 billion yuan in seven-day reverse repo operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. Today, 218.5 billion yuan in reverse repo matured. US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index edged down 0.11% to 99.68. US asset manager PGIM holds a fringe view that the Fed will raise interest rates three times this year to cool an overheating economy, before reversing the hikes in 2027. The firm had forecast rate cuts this year as recently as April. PGIM stated the US economy is "exceptionally strong," and persistently sticky inflation requires a new approach. Given this backdrop, and with the Fed having missed its 2% target for five consecutive years, PGIM expects three rate hikes this year to bolster its credibility and anchor inflation expectations. "The rate hikes would be politically palatable for Warsh if they are characterized as 'preventive' measures to address supply-side inflation and the recent gyrations in long-term Treasuries," PGIM said. However, the firm noted it expects the Fed "to reverse these hikes relatively quickly, with three rate cuts in 2027 and one further cut in 2028, taking the terminal rate to 3.375%—below the current rate and likely close to the neutral rate." (Jin10 Data APP) Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management, said the oil price pullback following the US-Iran agreement announcement saw the Treasury market strengthen, easing pressure on the Fed to hike rates this year. "Even before the ceasefire deal, as oil prices were coming down, the two-year yield was still rising because markets were pricing in a near-100% probability of a December hike," Falconio said. "Now what's happening is oil prices are falling and markets are unwinding those rate-hike expectations. As a result, the two-year yield is starting to decline." New Fed Chairman Warsh will preside over his first interest rate decision this week. After the recent surge in crude oil prices reignited inflationary pressures, voices within the FOMC supporting rate hikes this year have been growing. Falconio said she expects the FOMC to formally drop its easing bias at this week's meeting, making the policy outlook more hawkish. However, she still believes the Fed's next move will be a cut, occurring in 2027. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed holding rates steady in June is 98.5%, with a 1.5% chance of cumulative 25bp of cuts. For July, the probability of holding rates unchanged is 91.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 7.4%, and the probability of cumulative 25bp of cuts is 1.4%. (Jin10 Data APP) Data Front: Data to be released today include China's May total retail sales YoY, China's May value-added of industrial output above designated size YoY, the US weekly change in ADP employment for the week ending May 30, US May annualized housing starts, US May building permits, US May import price index MoM, the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision as of June 16, Germany's June ZEW economic sentiment index, the Eurozone's June ZEW economic sentiment index, and the Bank of Japan's target rate as of June 16. Additionally, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, and the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic performance. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology will convene a seminar to launch the High-Quality Token Service Capability Climbing Plan. The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision, and RBA Governor Bullock will hold a monetary policy press conference. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will hold a monetary policy press conference, and the BOJ will announce its interest rate decision. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil benchmarks fell, with WTI crude down 4.38% and Brent crude down 4.55%. The US and Iran simultaneously announced a ceasefire memorandum of understanding was reached, with Trump authorizing a "free and open" Strait of Hormuz and lifting the naval blockade. The formal signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. As the Trump administration nears completion of its plan to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to ease the surge in fuel prices triggered by the Iran war, the US emergency crude oil supply has fallen to its lowest level since 1983. According to data released by the US Department of Energy (DOE) on June 15, the US SPR, established after the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s, has dropped to a near-historic low of approximately 340 million barrels. (From Wallstreetcn APP) According to local news from Iran on the 16th, three oil tankers and two ships carrying essential Iranian goods have breached the US-imposed naval blockade. Separate reports indicated that multiple Iranian vessels successfully transited the blocked area. According to vessel-tracking data, an Iranian Very Large Crude Carrier was heading from international waters toward an Iranian port and had passed the blockade zone. A ship carrying livestock feed had also crossed the blockade and was en route to Iran. Additionally, another Iranian oil tanker fully loaded with crude has passed through the Gulf of Oman and the blockade line, heading to its export destination. (CCTV News) (Jin10 Data APP)

SMM, June 15: Metal markets: Last Friday’s overnight session saw broad gains across base metals in and outside China, with only LME nickel edging down 0.03%. SHFE tin led the gains, rising 2.19%. LME copper, LME zinc, LME tin and SHFE zinc all gained over 1%: LME copper rose 1.02%, LME zinc rose 1.63%, LME tin rose 1.75% and SHFE zinc rose 1.48%, while the rest of the metals gained less than 1%. In addition, the alumina main contract rose 0.86% and the foundry aluminum main contract rose 0.45%. Last Friday’s overnight session for ferrous metals saw rises across the board except for iron ore, which fell 0.13%. Rebar rose 0.44% and HRC rose 0.59%. On the coking coal and coke front, coking coal rose 0.22% and coke rose 2.73%. Last Friday’s overnight session saw precious metals rebound collectively. COMEX gold rose 3.06% and COMEX silver rose 6.44%. However, due to notable earlier declines, COMEX gold still recorded a weekly loss of 2.87%, marking its second consecutive weekly drop. COMEX silver recorded a weekly loss of 1.42%, marking its fifth consecutive weekly drop. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 2.30% and SHFE silver rose 5.22%. SHFE gold posted a weekly loss of 6.79%, also marking its fifth consecutive weekly drop. SHFE silver plummeted 10.14% for the week, also marking a five-week losing streak. Bank of China issued an announcement, stating that global geopolitics and the US Fed's monetary policy are currently subject to considerable uncertainty. Under the influence of multiple factors, price fluctuations of precious metals in and outside China have further intensified. To protect the interests of clients involved in precious metals-related businesses—such as accumulated gold, accumulated interest gold, account precious metals, two-way account precious metals, and agency services for individual Shanghai Gold Exchange operations—the bank specifically reminds you to guard against market risks, engage in rational investment based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance, reasonably control your precious metals positions, mitigate the impact of short-term price fluctuations through long-term investment, and prevent the risk of capital losses caused by market volatility. As of 8:31 a.m. on June 13, the closing prices from last Friday’s overnight session are as follows: Macro front Domestic front: [PBoC: In the first five months, aggregate social financing rose by 1.748 trillion yuan; new loans stood at 911 billion yuan; May M2 increased 8.6% YoY] PBoC’s preliminary statistics show that the cumulative increase in the aggregate social financing scale for the first five months of 2026 was 17.48 trillion yuan, 1.16 trillion yuan less than the same period last year. Specifically, RMB loans extended to the real economy rose by 9 trillion yuan, a YoY decline of 1.38 trillion yuan; foreign currency loans extended to the real economy, converted into RMB, rose by 115.3 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 211.6 billion yuan; entrusted loans decreased by 103.1 billion yuan, a YoY increase in decline of 91.8 billion yuan; trust loans rose by 5.7 billion yuan, a YoY decline in growth of 57 billion yuan; undiscounted bankers’ acceptances decreased by 17.2 billion yuan, a YoY increase in decline of 151.4 billion yuan; net financing from corporate bonds was 1.67 trillion yuan, a YoY increase of 757.7 billion yuan; net financing from government bonds was 5.67 trillion yuan, a YoY decrease of 634 billion yuan; and domestic stock financing by non-financial enterprises was 230.5 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 79.9 billion yuan. In the first five months, RMB loans increased by 9.11 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans decreased by 631.4 billion yuan, of which short-term loans fell by 694.2 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans rose by 62.8 billion yuan; loans to enterprises and public institutions grew by 9.63 trillion yuan, with short-term loans up 3.77 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans up 4.99 trillion yuan, and bill financing up 699.9 billion yuan; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 279.7 billion yuan. PBOC data showed that at end-May, broad money (M2) stood at 353.67 trillion yuan, up 8.6% YoY. Narrow money (M1) totaled 114.89 trillion yuan, up 5.5% YoY. Currency in circulation (M0) reached 14.69 trillion yuan, up 11.9% YoY. Net cash injection in the first five months was 590.7 billion yuan. According to the PBOC website, to maintain ample banking system liquidity, on June 15, 2026, the People’s Bank of China will conduct a 600 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation through fixed-quantity, rate-based tender and multiple-price bidding, with a tenor of 6 months (183 days), maturing on December 15, 2026. US dollar: As of the overnight close last Friday, the US dollar index edged up 0.1% to 99.79, posting a weekly decline of 0.28%, with markets closely watching US-Iran peace talks. Multiple US media reported on the 12th that a senior US administration official said that day the US side is “80% to 85%” confident of signing a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Iran within the coming days. The official also expressed confidence that Israel would support this US-Iran MoU. According to CNN, CBS and others, the official said on a press conference call, “We are not yet fully at the finish line, but we are very close.” The official noted that the specific venue and date for signing the MoU have not been determined, but US President Trump previously suggested signing it in a European country, which could be an option. (Xinhua) Iranian media reported on the 12th that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that once the final stage of negotiations between Iran and the US is completed, the MoU will be signed and announced immediately. The first stage will be signed electronically remotely, “possibly within the next few days.” (Xinhua) HSBC analysts noted in a report that the US dollar exchange rate is currently below levels implied by market expectations for US interest rates. They said the dollar’s reaction has been relatively limited as market expectations recently shifted from anticipated rate cuts to potential rate hikes. They believe this may reflect loose financial conditions in the US and hopes for a resolution to the Middle East conflict. They stated that the dollar requires clear stimulus from monetary policy. If the US Fed fails to support rate hike expectations at this week's meeting, the dollar "could be in trouble." (Jin10 Data App) Traders expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, but see a more than 50% probability of a hike before year-end. Market pricing dialed back slightly after Thursday’s comments from Trump on a potential deal. In other currencies: ING analyst Chris Turner noted that for the EUR/USD exchange rate, the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting may matter more than the ECB’s Thursday rate hike decision. The ECB has signaled further tightening, with markets speculating about another hike in July. However, he stated that because the market has already priced in an aggressive ECB tightening cycle and is reluctant to push that expectation higher, EUR/USD remains below 1.16. Moreover, markets see a possible Fed hike later this year. He indicated that unless the Fed pushes back against this expectation at its Wednesday meeting, the dollar should stay firm. (Jin10 Data App) On the data front: This week, from China, the data to be released include China’s May total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, May industrial value-added above designated size YoY, May share of Swift RMB in global payments, May total electricity consumption YoY (TBD), and May total electricity consumption (TBD). From the US, releases will include the US Fed interest rate decision (upper bound) as of June 17, June NY Empire State manufacturing index, May industrial production MoM, June NAHB housing market index, weekly change in ADP employment as of May 30, May housing starts annualized, May building permits total, May import price index MoM, May retail sales MoM, April business inventories MoM, May pending home sales index MoM, initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13, June Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and May Conference Board leading index MoM. From the UK, releases will include May CPI MoM, May retail price index MoM, April three-month ILO unemployment rate, May unemployment rate, May claimant count change, Bank of England rate decision as of June 18, June GfK consumer confidence index, and May seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM. From the eurozone, releases will include April seasonally adjusted trade balance, April industrial production MoM, June ZEW economic sentiment index, May final CPI YoY, May final CPI MoM, and April seasonally adjusted current account. From Switzerland, releases will include the May consumer confidence index, May trade balance, and Swiss National Bank policy rate as of June 18. From Japan, releases will include the Bank of Japan target rate as of June 16 and May core CPI YoY. From Canada, releases will include April wholesale sales MoM and April retail sales MoM. Germany’s June ZEW economic sentiment index, Germany’s May PPI MoM, and the Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision as of June 16 will also be published. Additionally, on June 15, China will see the maturity of 218.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 600 billion yuan in six-month outright reverse repos, the National Energy Administration is set to release data on nationwide electricity consumption around the 15th of each month, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will publish the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, and the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on economic performance. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) will convene a seminar to launch the High-Quality Token Service Capability Climbing Plan (tentative), and China's refined oil products will enter a new pricing window. On June 18, the US Fed's FOMC will release its interest rate decision and summary of economic projections, and Fed Chairman Warsh will hold a monetary policy press conference. ECB President Lagarde will deliver a speech. BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida Shinichi will hold a monetary policy press conference, and the BOJ will announce its interest rate decision. RBA Governor Block will hold a monetary policy press conference. The Swiss National Bank will announce its interest rate decision, and the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision and minutes. The G7 Summit will open, running until June 17. In the Crude Oil Market: Last Friday, oil prices fell overnight in both markets, with US crude dropping 3.9% and Brent crude dropping 3.96%. Expectations for a US-Iran peace agreement continued to rise, putting oil prices under pressure and pulling them back. On a weekly basis, oil prices also declined, with US crude down 6.9% and Brent crude down 6.76%. In early trading in the US stock market, according to CCTV, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the Islamabad memorandum of understanding has never been this close to being reached, causing oil prices to plunge and US stock indices to extend intraday gains. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei stated that the two sides have now reached an understanding on most issues, and Iran is in the final stages of consolidating the MOU text. At midday in the US stock market, CCTV reported that Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif Shehbaz said the final agreed peace agreement text has been completed, and the two countries are moving forward to implement the next steps. Oil prices continued to decline. During the session, US stocks briefly fell after Trump criticized Iran for leaking agreement terms, but then Wall Street News mentioned that the UAE has agreed to unlock large-scale funds to Iran, with the first tranche of about $3 billion already transferred, further boosting optimism about reaching an agreement. (Wall Street News) US Energy Secretary Wright stated that currently about 7 million barrels of oil and fuel pass through the Strait of Hormuz each day, a volume that accounts for about half of the stranded cargo when the Iran conflict first erupted. Wright said that no Iranian crude can currently be shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. He added that if an agreement is reached, he expects all products will be able to pass freely through the Persian Gulf. Wright also noted that if no agreement is reached, the US military will resume transportation along the route. Wright stated that the US will not impose an oil export ban to curb oil prices. (Jinshi Data APP) US Energy Secretary Wright stated on Friday local time that US refiners can still absorb more Venezuelan crude oil. Wright said that Venezuela currently sends about half of its total exports of 1.2 million barrels per day to the US, and this proportion could rise in the coming months. Wright also said that Iran is currently not exporting any oil or refined products. During the Middle East conflict, the US has actively filled the gap in oil exports. (Jinshi Data APP) Triggered by the most severe supply disruption on record from the Iran conflict, US emergency stockpile crude exports have surged to an all-time high. Customs data compiled by Kpler Ltd. show that nearly 22 million barrels of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) have been sold to overseas markets so far this year. This volume has already surpassed the previous record set four years ago. Although exports of crude from the US emergency stockpile are not uncommon, the scale of shipments this year shows that, as the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggers supply disruptions, global markets are increasingly relying on US supplies to weather the crisis. For every three barrels of crude released from the emergency stockpile, roughly one barrel is exported. The volume headed overseas could be even higher, as the Trump administration continues to release the full promised 172 million barrels of crude. This is part of a larger effort by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to help buffer the impact of the Iran war on global energy markets. (Wallstreetcn)

SMM June 12 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals nearly all rose. SHFE copper rose 1.51%, SHFE tin rose 2.97%. SHFE nickel rose 0.94%. SHFE aluminum rose 1.06%. SHFE zinc rose 0.43%. SHFE lead fell 0.31%. In addition, casting aluminum linked futures rose 0.45%, alumina most-traded linked futures rose 1.45%. Lithium carbonate most-traded linked futures rose 3.85%. Silicon metal most-traded linked futures rose 0.63%. Polysilicon linked futures rose 5.91%. Ferrous metals all rose, iron ore rose 0.13%, rebar rose 0.66%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.74%, stainless steel rose 2.15%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal most-traded contract rose 3.02%, coke most-traded contract rose 5.63%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:38 AM, LME metals all rose. LME copper rose 1.01%, LME aluminum rose 0.54%, LME lead edged up. LME zinc rose 0.26%, LME tin rose 0.25%, LME nickel rose 0.67%. Precious metals: as of 11:38 AM, COMEX gold rose 2.63%, COMEX silver rose 5.36%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold most-traded linked futures rose 1.89%, SHFE silver most-traded linked futures rose 4.36%. Furthermore, as of the midday close, platinum most-traded linked futures rose 3.99%, palladium most-traded linked futures rose 5.69%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe container shipping futures contract fell 1.16% to 3,929.5 points. As of 11:38 AM on June 12, some futures midday quotes: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper reported at 270 yuan/mt up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, standard-quality copper reported at a premium of 210 yuan/mt up 30 yuan/mt, SX-EW copper reported at a premium of 150 yuan/mt up 30 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 104,715 yuan/mt up 1,090 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,625 yuan/mt up 1,075 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventory has declined for 9 consecutive days and has now hit a new low for the year... Macro front China: [PBOC's open market operations net injected 178 billion yuan on the day, and net injected 885.8 billion yuan this week] PBOC conducted 393 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with 215 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net injection of 178 billion yuan on the day. This week, PBOC conducted 1,112 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations, with 226.2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing, realizing a net injection of 885.8 billion yuan this week. (Jinshi Data APP) [Guangzhou: Fully Advance the Implementation of Major Projects Such as Intelligent Connected Vehicles and NEVs, Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors and Integrated Circuits, and Low-Altitude Economy] The “Guangzhou Commerce Development 15th Five-Year Plan (Draft for Public Comments)” was released for public consultation. It highlighted the need to fully advance the implementation of major projects including intelligent connected vehicles and NEVs, ultra-high-definition video and new-type displays, green petrochemicals and new materials, intelligent equipment and robotics, artificial intelligence, semiconductors and integrated circuits, and low-altitude economy, and cultivate a group of leading intermediate product enterprises that are high-tech, manufacturing single champions, and specialized and sophisticated. Promote the accelerated development of intermediate product trade in foreign trade transformation and upgrading bases, and cultivate a number of well-known brands and “chain leader” enterprises. Support enterprises in using technologies such as the industrial internet, big data, and artificial intelligence for digital transformation, improving production efficiency and product quality, and driving the intermediate product trade to leap toward high-end and digital-intelligent development. (Jinshi Data APP) On the US dollar front: As of 11:38, the US dollar index rose 0.06% to 99.75. According to CME “FedWatch”: The probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through June is 98.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate cut is 1.5%. The probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through July is 91.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 7.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate cut is 1.4%. Market expectations for a US Fed rate hike have been pushed back from December this year to January next year, and the possibility of a rate hike this year is no longer fully priced in. (Jinshi Data APP) Amid sustained inflationary pressure driven by the Iran war, US producer prices in May rose at the fastest pace in more than three years. Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the US PPI rose 6.5% YoY in May, the largest increase since November 2022, and rose 1.1% MoM. The core PPI, excluding food and energy, rose 4.9% YoY. The report highlighted the growing damage to the US economy from the energy price shock caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As the conflict is unlikely to be resolved in the short term, businesses are passing on higher energy and transportation costs, and other goods and services are also becoming more expensive. Combined with data earlier this week showing that consumer prices in May rose at the fastest pace in three years, Thursday's PPI report may further strengthen market expectations for a US Fed rate hike in 2026. As the labour market appears to be regaining growth momentum, the US Fed is shifting its focus to curbing inflation. On the data front: Today will see the release of Germany May CPI MoM Final, UK April Three-Month GDP MoM, UK April Manufacturing Production MoM, UK April Seasonally Adjusted Goods Trade Balance, UK April Industrial Production MoM, France May CPI MoM Final, US June 1-Year Inflation Expectations Prelim, and US June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Prelim. In addition, watch for: the Huawei Developer Conference on June 12-14; Elon Musk’s commercial space company SpaceX plans to list on the Nasdaq on June 12, 2026. Crude oil: As of 11:38, oil prices in both benchmarks fell, with WTI crude down 1.12% and Brent crude down 1.15%. The US and Iran may reach a preliminary agreement on a memorandum of understanding, causing oil prices to pull back slightly. According to CCTV, on June 11 local time, US President Trump posted on the social media platform “Truth Social” that, given that consultations with Iran had been submitted to the highest leadership of Iran and approved, he had canceled the strike and bombing operation originally planned for that night against Iran. According to the latest OPEC data, Iran’s crude oil production fell 19% last month, as the US blocked the country’s ports amid the ongoing conflict. Data from the monthly report released on Thursday showed that Iran’s daily output dropped by 546,000 barrels to 2.33 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, OPEC’s latest monthly report showed that the organization on Thursday lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 970,000 barrels per day, marking its second consecutive downward revision. Since the outbreak of the Iran war, the producer group has believed that the conflict’s impact on consumption has been consistently smaller than that estimated by other forecasters such as the US Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency, both of which expect demand to decline in 2026. In addition, the report noted that the oil producer group raised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2027. (Jinshi Data APP) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM Jun 12 News: Metal markets: Overnight, domestic base metals broadly rose. SHFE copper rose 0.13%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.62%, SHFE lead fell 0.74%, SHFE tin rose 1.91%. SHFE zinc fell 0.19%. SHFE nickel rose 0.25%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 1.18%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract rose 0.04%. Overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore closed flat at 766.5 yuan/mt, hot-rolled coil (HRC) flat at 3,365 yuan/mt, stainless steel rose 1.91%, and rebar fell 0.33%. Coking coal and coke: The most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 0.33%, while the most-traded coke futures contract rose 0.35%. Overnight overseas market: LME base metals nearly all rose. LME copper rose 0.94%. LME aluminum rose 0.87%, LME lead fell 0.25%. LME zinc rose 1.64%. LME tin rose 2.01%. LME nickel rose 0.37%. Overnight precious metals : Overnight COMEX gold rose 2.43%, COMEX silver rose 4.25%. Overnight the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.75%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 2.41%. As of 7:15 on Jun 12, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [SAMR Approves Release of a Batch of Important National Standards] Recently, the State Administration for Market Regulation (Standardization Administration of China) approved the release of 389 important national standards, covering high-tech, traditional industries, environmental protection, agricultural production, and people's livelihoods. After publication, these standards will play a vital role in promoting high-quality industrial development, improving people's quality of life, and safeguarding life and property. In the high-tech sector, 33 national standards were released for artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, blockchain, etc., clarifying technical and safety specifications. Six national standards were released for industrial internet and industrial digital twins, promoting smart manufacturing upgrades. Fifteen national standards were released for spacecraft grounding requirements, manned spacecraft markings and usage requirements, and general requirements for parachute systems of civil light and small rotary-wing drones, laying a solid foundation for the large-scale application of China's aerospace equipment. (SAMR) [SHFE: Adjusting Price Limit and Margin Requirements for Gold and Silver Futures Contracts] SHFE announced that for the gold AU2609 contract, the price limit is 17%, the hedging position margin rate is 18%, and the speculative position margin rate is 19%; for the silver AG2706 contract, the price limit is 17%, the hedging position margin rate is 18%, and the speculative position margin rate is 19%. [GFEX: Matters Regarding Polysilicon Futures PS2706 Contract and Lithium Carbonate Futures LC2706 Contract] GFEX announced that for the polysilicon futures PS2706 contract, the trading fee rate is 0.025% of the transaction value, the intraday closing fee rate is 0.025% of the transaction value; the minimum order size per trade is 5 lots for opening and 1 lot for closing; non-futures company members or clients are limited to a maximum daily opening volume of 200 lots. For the lithium carbonate futures LC2706 contract, the trading fee rate is 0.032% of the transaction value, the intraday closing fee rate is 0.032% of the transaction value; the minimum order size per trade is 5 lots for opening and 1 lot for closing; non-futures company members or clients are limited to a maximum daily opening volume of 400 lots. [DCE: Trading Schedule for 2026 Dragon Boat Festival Holiday] DCE announced that the market will be closed from Jun 19 (Friday) to Jun 21 (Sunday) and resume trading on Jun 22 (Monday). There will be no night session on the evening of Jun 18 (Thursday). On Jun 22 (Monday), the call auction for all contracts will take place from 08:55 to 09:00. Night session trading will resume on the evening of Jun 22 (Monday). US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.35% to 99.69. Market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes were pushed back from December this year to January next year, with markets no longer fully pricing in a rate hike this year. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME "Fed Watch": The probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through June is 98.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate cut is 1.5%. For the meeting through July, the probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged is 91.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 7.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate cut is 1.4%. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the producer price index (PPI) rose 6.5% YoY in May, the largest increase since November 2022 and above the expected 6.4%; it rose 1.1% MoM, also exceeding the market forecast of 0.7%. The data echoed the consumer price index (CPI) released earlier, which also recorded the fastest pace in three years. The combination of these two inflation figures is expected to further cement market expectations that the US Fed will begin raising rates in 2026. With momentum rebuilding in the labor market, taming inflation has become the Fed's top priority for now. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Last week, US initial jobless claims increased slightly, indicating that the labor market retained resilience in early June. The US Department of Labor said on Thursday that in the week ending June 6, initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 229,000, above market expectations. Claims typically rise at the start of summer, as some states allow non-teaching staff to file for unemployment benefits during long school holidays. However, the government's model for stripping out seasonal fluctuations may not fully capture these changes. Last week, the government reported that the economy added jobs for the third straight month in May. The unemployment rate held at 4.3% for the third consecutive month. Some of the strength in job growth may be due to fewer layoffs. (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: [ECB Becomes First Major Central Bank to Raise Rates Since Inflation Reemerged] The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time in nearly three years, making it the first major central bank in the developed world to respond to inflation triggered by the Iran war. The bank lifted its main rate from 2% to 2.25%, a move widely expected but also highlighting the challenges faced by major economies due to rising energy prices resulting from the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Investors widely expect the ECB to raise rates at least once more this year. The decision also made the ECB the first major central bank to tighten monetary policy in response to rising energy prices, which have pushed eurozone inflation above 3%. The US Fed, under Chair Warsh, is expected to hold rates steady next week as Warsh faces a dilemma between Trump's demand for low rates and mounting inflationary pressure; the Bank of England is also expected to keep rates unchanged next week. (Zhitong Finance) Data: Today will see the release of Germany's final May CPI MoM, the UK's April three-month GDP MoM, UK April manufacturing output MoM, UK April seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, UK April industrial output MoM, France's final May CPI MoM, US June one-year ahead inflation expectations preliminary, and US June University of Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary, among others. Also of note: the Huawei Developer Conference will be held from Jun 12-14; Elon Musk's commercial space company SpaceX is scheduled to list on the Nasdaq on Jun 12, 2026. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures fell, with WTI crude down 4.01% and Brent crude down 4.26%. Oil prices tumbled after Trump signaled that the US and Iran are about to reach a peace deal. OPEC's monthly report showed that OPEC lowered its forecast for 2026 global oil demand growth to 970,000 bpd (previously expected at 1.17 million bpd). It raised its 2027 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.73 million bpd (previously 1.54 million bpd). OPEC+ (including former member UAE) crude oil production averaged 33.13 million bpd in May 2026, down 190,000 bpd from April, mainly due to lower Iranian output. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Additionally, CME Group announced that, pending regulatory review, it will offer 24/7 (around the clock) trading for new, smaller crude oil and gold contracts. The new crude oil contract will be one-tenth the size of CME's existing micro WTI crude oil futures contract and will launch on August 30. Around-the-clock trading for the company's existing 1-ounce gold futures contract will begin on July 26. Derek Sammann, Global Head of Commodity Markets at CME Group, said: "In the face of geopolitical uncertainty, offering appropriately sized, regulated products available 24/7 enables traders to manage risk whenever news breaks." (Jin10 Data APP)

SMM June 9 News: In the metals market, as of the midday close, domestic base metals fell near across the board. SHFE lead dropped 1.86%, SHFE tin declined 1.86%, SHFE nickel lost 2.33%, SHFE copper edged down, SHFE aluminum fell 0.52%, and SHFE zinc shed 0.38%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract dipped 0.41%, while the most-traded alumina contract edged down. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 0.32%, the most-traded silicon metal contract slid 2.41%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract tumbled 4.04%. Ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore dipped 0.39%, rebar fell 0.47%, hot-rolled coil declined 0.71%, and stainless steel dropped 1.67%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract plunged 7.48%, hitting the limit-down price of 1,340.5 yuan/mt during the session; the most-traded coke contract slumped 4.31%. In the overseas base metals market, as of 11:46 am, LME metals moved lower across the board. LME copper edged down 0.19%, LME aluminum fell 0.65%, LME lead dropped 0.25%, LME zinc slipped 0.35%, LME tin shed 0.73%, and LME nickel lost 1.01%. In precious metals, as of 11:46 am, COMEX gold edged down 0.1% and COMEX silver fell 1.13%. Domestically, the most-traded SHFE gold contract dipped 0.2%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract dropped 1.93%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 0.99%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract shed 0.33%. At the midday break, the most-traded container freight futures (Europe) contract rose 0.61% to 3,865 points. As of 11:46 am on June 9, selected futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper quoted at 110 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper quoted at a premium of 70 yuan/mt, up 80 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper quoted at a premium of 10 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 104,275 yuan/mt, up 330 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,195 yuan/mt, up 335 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventories continued to decline today, marking six consecutive sessions of draws... Macro Front China: [General Administration of Customs: China's Goods Trade Imports and Exports Grew 15.3% YoY in the First Five Months, with Electromechanical Product Exports Up 18.4%] According to customs statistics, in the first five months of 2026, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 20.68 trillion yuan, up 15.3% YoY (the same hereinafter). Specifically, exports reached 11.91 trillion yuan, up 11.8%; imports were 8.77 trillion yuan, up 20.5%. In May, China's total merchandise trade import and export value reached 4.45 trillion yuan, up 16.9%. Of this, exports were 2.59 trillion yuan, up 13.8%; imports were 1.86 trillion yuan, up 21.5%. In terms of key commodities, on the export side, in the first five months, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products amounted to 7.58 trillion yuan, up 18.4%; labour-intensive products reached 1.61 trillion yuan, down 3.1%; and agricultural products totalled 300.79 billion yuan, up 1.6%. On the import side, in the first five months, China imported 3.54 trillion yuan worth of mechanical and electrical products, up 25.3%; 218 million mt of crude oil, down 4.8%; and 618.16 billion yuan worth of agricultural products, up 7.6%. [Ministry of Commerce Holds Symposium on Solid Waste Recycling for PV, Lithium-ion Battery and NEV] On June 5, the Ministry of Commerce held a symposium on solid waste recycling for PV, lithium-ion battery and NEV. The meeting emphasized the need to align thoughts and actions with the decisions and plans of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adopt multiple measures, and take concrete actions to advance the construction of the solid waste recycling system for PV, lithium-ion battery and NEV. It called for systematic advancement and synergy, accelerating the improvement of top-level institutional design, promoting the issuance of policy documents, and forming a working pattern featuring policy coordination, resource sharing, complementary advantages, and integrated progress. It urged targeted guidance and category-specific policies, adopting differentiated and precise measures based on the development stages and recycling characteristics of power batteries, PV modules, and wind turbine equipment, to effectively resolve dismantling issues in recycling. It stressed technology-led and technology-empowered approaches, actively promoting basic R&D on technologies related to solid waste recycling for PV, lithium-ion battery and NEV, and facilitating the integration and application of AI in the recycling process. It emphasized pilot exploration and encouraging pioneers, continuing pilot work on building a renewable resource recycling system, encouraging industrial clusters and industry leaders to take the lead in trials, improving recycling efficiency, enhancing sorting capacity, and promoting high-quality development of the recycling industry. (From Wall Street CN APP) [Two Departments Jointly Launch 2026 Humanoid Robot and Embodied AI Real-Scenario Training Special Action] The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council jointly launched the 2026 Humanoid Robot and Embodied AI Real-Scenario Training Special Action. Adhering to application-driven approaches, they will target key scenarios in industrial, special, and service fields, and promote key tasks such as the construction of real-scenario training spaces, cultivation of innovative application consortia, tackling of operational skills, and application deployment verification. Through real-scenario training, they will continuously optimize embodied AI model algorithms, accumulate high-quality real-machine data, improve the performance of key robot body components, and explore the establishment of full life-cycle management and assurance mechanisms for humanoid robots and embodied AI products. By the end of 2026, key products such as humanoid robots will have taken the lead in completing application verification and routine deployment across a range of representative scenarios, entering an "operational mode"; over 100 high-value application scenarios will be condensed and formed, further enriching the embodied AI application spectrum and driving the deployment capabilities on a scale of tens of thousands of units. (From Wall Street Insights app) [PBOC open market operations achieved a net injection of 152.8 billion yuan today.] PBOC conducted 153 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, and as 200 million yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 152.8 billion yuan was achieved. (Gold Ten Data APP) On the dollar front: As of 11:46, the US dollar index fell 0.02% to 99.08. The market is waiting for the US inflation data to be released on Wednesday, which will affect expectations for the Fed's June rate decision. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 98.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate cut is 1.9%. For the July meeting, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 84.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 13.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate cut is 1.6%. (Gold Ten Data APP) Morgan Stanley strategists said in a report that if risk appetite rebounds and the Fed avoids raising rates, the US dollar could weaken in the coming months. They noted that in the absence of higher interest rates, positive risk sentiment is negative for the dollar. However, they said that if the US economy outperforms others, leading to larger rate hikes than in other countries, the dollar would fare better. "Given that both the ECB and the BOJ are expected to raise rates this month, narrowing rate differentials should fuel a rise in risk appetite, thereby putting pressure on the dollar." (Gold Ten Data APP) On the data front: Today will see the release of Germany's April seasonally adjusted industrial output m/m, Germany's April seasonally adjusted trade balance, the US May NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, the US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 23, the US April trade balance, the US May existing home sales annualized, and the US April wholesale sales m/m, among other data. In addition, attention should be paid to Apple's WWDC developer conference, which runs through June 13. On the crude oil front: As of 11:46, oil prices in both markets declined, with WTI down 1% and Brent down 0.83%. The phased easing of the Iran-Israel situation has pulled back oil prices, reflecting some relief in market concerns over Middle East supply risks. However, the market remains cautious in its assessment of the situation. Whether energy transit through the Strait of Hormuz can be substantially restored remains a key focus for traders. A small number of commercial vessels returned to the waterway last weekend, but risks persist, with some ships even sailing with their digital transponders turned off. (Wall Street CN) The US Department of Transportation said on Monday that rising jet fuel prices, driven by the Middle East situation, caused US airlines' fuel costs in April to surge 78% compared to the same period last year, reaching nearly $6.5 billion. In its monthly report, the department stated that airlines' fuel costs rose 26% from March, while fuel consumption in April fell 2.6% from March. The department added that the cost per gallon of fuel in April was $4.11, up $1.81 from April 2025, a trend that is already having an impact on the industry. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects airlines' fuel expenditure to jump from about $252 billion in 2025 to approximately $350 billion this year, with fuel costs accounting for nearly one-third of operating costs. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $13,624.5/mt. In the early session, it experienced wild swings and dipped to $13,575.5/mt. Subsequently, the center of copper prices shifted upward, reaching a high of $13,678/mt, before fluctuating downward to finally close at $13,635/mt, up 0.18%. Trading volume reached 16,200 lots, and open interest stood at 269,000 lots, a decrease of 3,435 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 104,870 yuan/mt. In the early session, the center of copper prices fluctuated downward, touching a low of 104,420 yuan/mt. Subsequently, it fluctuated upward, reaching 105,280 yuan/mt, before moving sideways to finally close at 105,090 yuan/mt, up 0.58%. Trading volume reached 33,600 lots, and open interest stood at 172,000 lots, an increase of 627 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls adding positions.

SMM May 18 Update: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight session saw a broad sell-off across both domestic and overseas metals markets, with most declining over 1%. LME tin led the decline at 4.03%, LME copper fell 3.15%, LME aluminum and SHFE tin dropped over 2% (LME aluminum -2.36%, SHFE tin -2.84%). LME lead, LME zinc, LME nickel, SHFE copper, and SHFE nickel all fell over 1% (LME lead -1.39%, LME zinc -1.35%, LME nickel -1.9%, SHFE copper -1.29%, SHFE nickel -1.3%). SHFE lead and SHFE zinc fell less than 1% (SHFE lead -0.6%, SHFE zinc -0.44%). The alumina front-month contract fell 1.19%, and the foundry aluminum front-month contract fell 0.99%. Last Friday's overnight session saw broad declines in ferrous metals. Stainless steel fell 0.94%, and iron ore fell 0.8%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar dropped over 0.6% (hot-rolled coil -0.63%, rebar -0.62%). For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 0.49% and coke fell 1.32%. Last Friday's overnight session for precious metals: COMEX gold fell 3.02% overnight, down 3.96% on the week; COMEX silver plunged 10.59%, down 5.65% on the week. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.13%, down 3.37% on the week; SHFE silver fell 6.79%, down 3.26% on the week. This was mainly driven by rising US Treasury yields and the strengthening of the US dollar with no resolution in sight, while the US-Iran conflict intensified inflation concerns, further reinforcing market expectations of interest rate hikes. As of 8:24 AM on May 16, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro Front Wang Yi briefed the media on the China-US summit and the consensus reached. Wang Yi stated that the two heads of state interacted for nearly 9 hours and agreed that building a "China-US Constructive Strategic Stability Relationship" was the most important political consensus. At the invitation of President Trump, President Xi Jinping will pay a state visit to the US this autumn. The economic and trade teams of both countries reached overall balanced and positive outcomes, including continuing to implement all consensus from previous negotiations, agreeing to establish a Trade Council and an Investment Council, addressing each other's concerns on agricultural product market access, and promoting the expansion of two-way trade under a reciprocal tariff reduction framework. China: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs provided consolidated responses on China-US economic and trade issues including semiconductors, rare earths, Boeing, and oil purchases. On May 15, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Guo Jiakun hosted a regular press conference and provided consolidated responses on China-US economic and trade issues. Regarding rare earth supply, China is committed to maintaining the stability of global supply chains. Regarding purchases of US oil and Boeing aircraft, China expressed willingness to jointly safeguard energy security and supply chain stability, emphasizing the mutually beneficial nature of China-US economic and trade relations. Qiushi Journal published an important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping titled "Making the Real Economy Stronger, Better, and Bigger." The article pointed out that manufacturing is the foundation of the real economy, and high-quality development of manufacturing should be given a more prominent position, with unwavering commitment to building a manufacturing powerhouse. It called for implementing industrial foundation re-engineering projects and major technical equipment breakthrough projects, supporting the development of specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative enterprises, and promoting high-end, intelligent, and green development of manufacturing. It also called for promoting the integrated cluster development of strategic emerging industries and building a batch of new growth engines in areas such as next-generation information technology, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, and green environmental protection. US dollar: As of last Friday's overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.41% to 99.28, up 1.45% on the week. Rising energy prices and prolonged shipping disruptions intensified inflationary pressures, pushing up market expectations that the US Fed would raise interest rates this year. US interest rate futures prices fell sharply on Friday, reflecting growing conviction among bond market investors that elevated inflation would force the US Fed to raise interest rates later this year or in early 2027. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market priced in approximately a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next January, with a 50% probability of a rate hike in December. US April retail sales grew further, but part of the increase may have stemmed from rising inflation, as the Iran conflict pushed up energy and other commodity prices. Data released Thursday showed April retail sales rose 0.5%, in line with market expectations, while the March increase was revised down to 1.6%. The Iran conflict is driving up inflation; US Energy Information Administration data showed gasoline prices rose 12.3% in April. Despite surging oil prices, consumer spending had not yet noticeably shifted away from other areas due to larger tax refund amounts this year. IRS data showed that as of April 25, the average refund amount increased by $323 compared to the same period in 2025. However, this support is fading. Economists at PNC Financial Services Group stated that based on internal data analysis, "consumers are spending their tax refunds faster than last year, especially among lower-income households," adding that "the amount of refund money being used to pay off credit card and other debts is also declining." (Jin10 Data APP) The Fed Board of Governors said in a statement on Friday that it had appointed Jerome Powell as chair pro tempore until his successor Kevin Warsh is officially sworn in. The US Fed stated: "This interim step of appointing the current chair as chair pro tempore is consistent with the practice followed during previous chair transitions." In response, Fed Governors Bowman and Milan stated that they did not support the interim appointment. On May 15, Powell's term as Fed Chairman expired. (Wallstreetcn) Analysts at BofA Global Research: If strong global economic growth prevents the US Fed from cutting interest rates, emerging markets could perform well. However, under scenarios of asymmetric growth (favoring the US) or a global stagflation shock, emerging markets would be more vulnerable. On the currency front, even though the election trigger point is still months away, commodity outlook and monetary policy should continue to provide support for the Brazilian real. (Wallstreetcn) Data: This week, China will release data including April total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, April industrial value added of enterprises above designated size YoY, the one-year Loan Prime Rate as of May 20, and April Swift RMB share in global payments. The US will release data including initial jobless claims for the week ending May 16, weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 2, April pending home sales index MoM, April annualized housing starts, April building permits, May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, continuing jobless claims for the week ending May 9, May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary, May S&P Global Services PMI preliminary, May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final, May NAHB Housing Market Index, May one-year inflation expectations final, and April Conference Board Leading Index MoM. The UK will release data including March three-month ILO unemployment rate, April unemployment rate, April claimant count, April CPI MoM, April Retail Price Index MoM, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, May Services PMI preliminary, May CBI Industrial Orders balance, May GfK Consumer Confidence Index, April public sector net borrowing, and April seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM. Germany will release data including April PPI MoM, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, June GfK Consumer Confidence Index, Q1 final non-seasonally adjusted GDP YoY, and May IFO Business Climate Index. The eurozone will release data including March seasonally adjusted trade balance, April CPI YoY final, April CPI MoM final, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, March seasonally adjusted current account, and May Consumer Confidence Index preliminary. Canada will release data including April CPI MoM and March retail sales MoM. Japan's April core CPI YoY, France's May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, and Australia's April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate will also be released. In addition, in China, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly report on residential property prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic performance, and a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. At 2:00 AM on May 21, the US Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting. ECB Chief Economist Lane and Fed Governor Waller will speak at an ECB research conference. 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulsen will deliver a speech. Crude oil: As of last Friday's overnight close, the US-Iran standoff over Strait of Hormuz passage remained unresolved, and both benchmarks rose. WTI gained 4.44% and Brent gained 3.55%. On the week, WTI rose 10.73% and Brent rose 8.08%. As the Iran conflict cut off energy supplies from the Persian Gulf, US refiners are ramping up fuel production to fill supply gaps in gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Analysts said this rapid growth trend is expected to keep many refineries operating at effective maximum capacity for at least the remainder of 2026. Reduced spare crude oil supply in Europe and other regions, combined with the difficulty of restoring post-conflict infrastructure in the Middle East in the short term, is pushing up crude oil refining margins. Analysts said this rapid growth trend is expected to keep many refineries operating at effective maximum capacity for at least the remainder of 2026. Data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that the so-called "capacity utilization rate" has climbed for three consecutive weeks and is now approaching 92%. In recent weeks, gasoline production hit a nine-month high, while jet fuel production reached its highest level since the summer of 2024. (Jin10 Data APP) US Energy Secretary Wright said at an event in Sabine Pass, Texas on Friday that the US will replenish every barrel of crude oil released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). He said: "We are releasing oil now, and for every barrel released, we will put back at least 1.2 barrels into the reserve. Ultimately, we will make the reserve larger than when we started." (Jin10 Data APP) According to US media reports, the Trump administration plans to streamline the permitting process for oil projects within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska to boost crude oil production in the US Arctic region. The Interior Department's move aims to establish a new permitting framework for the construction and operation of oil production facilities and related infrastructure. Under the plan, eligible projects could receive analysis and authorization more quickly, potentially within just 30 days. This initiative could benefit companies holding leases in the reserve, such as ConocoPhillips, Santos, and Repsol, and accelerate government review of projects like ConocoPhillips' Willow project, which had drawn strong opposition from climate activists. During the Iran conflict, with approximately 20% of global supply trapped in the Persian Gulf, the Trump administration has stepped up calls for US oil companies to increase production. (Jin10 Data APP) US import and export prices surged in April, posting the largest increases in over four years, driven by oil market pressures related to the Iran conflict, further signaling rising inflation in the world's largest economy. Data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the import price index rose 1.9% MoM, the largest increase since March 2022, with petroleum costs surging 19%. Export prices rose 3.3% MoM, also the largest increase in over four years. (Wallstreetcn)

SMM May 14: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 1.07%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.3%. SHFE lead rose 0.27%, SHFE zinc rose 0.44%. SHFE tin fell 0.87%. SHFE nickel fell 1.06%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures fell 0.3%, the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.29%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 2.01%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.29%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 0.49%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.43%, rebar fell 0.25%, hot-rolled coil edged down, and stainless steel fell 1.52%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.57%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.8%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals nearly all declined. LME copper fell 1.08%. LME aluminum fell 0.9%, LME lead edged up 0.02%. LME zinc edged down. LME tin fell 2.76%. LME nickel fell 1.57%. Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold fell 0.33%, COMEX silver fell 2.2%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.04%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.6%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.28%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.27%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract fell 4.32%, closing at 2,434 points. As of 11:41 on May 14, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Nickel: On May 14, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 1,200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,350 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro front [Xi Jinping: The Essence of China-US Economic and Trade Relations Is Mutual Benefit and Win-Win] On the morning of May 14, President Xi Jinping held talks with US President Trump, who was on a state visit to China, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Xi Jinping pointed out that facts have repeatedly proven that there are no winners in a trade war, the essence of China-US economic and trade relations is mutual benefit and win-win, and equal consultation is the only correct choice when facing differences and frictions. Yesterday, the economic and trade teams of both sides reached overall balanced and positive outcomes, which is good news for the people of both countries and for the world. Both sides should work together to maintain the current hard-won positive momentum. (CCTV News) [Xi Jinping: Making 2026 a Historic and Landmark Year for China-US Relations to Build on the Past and Open Up the Future] On the morning of May 14, President Xi Jinping held talks with US President Trump, who was on a state visit to China, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Xi Jinping emphasized that the common interests between China and the US outweigh their differences, that the success of each country represents an opportunity for the other, and that stability in China-US relations benefits the world. Both sides should be partners rather than rivals, achieving mutual success and shared prosperity, and forging a path of proper engagement between major countries in the new era. He looked forward to exchanging views with President Trump on major issues concerning both countries and the world, jointly steering the great ship of China-US relations on the right course, and making 2026 a historic and landmark year for China-US relations to build on the past and open up the future. (Xinhua News Agency) China: [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Resulted in a Net Withdrawal of 26.5 Billion Yuan for the Day] The PBOC conducted 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 27 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 26.5 billion yuan was achieved for the day. US Dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index fell 0.01% to 98.48. Driven by a sharp climb in energy prices amid Middle East conflicts, the US April Producer Price Index (PPI) significantly exceeded expectations, posting the largest increase in over three years, and market bets on a Fed rate hike warmed notably. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed: US April PPI came in at 6% YoY, the highest level since December 2022. Expectations were 4.8%, with the prior reading at 4%. US April PPI rose 1.4% MoM, the largest single-month increase since March 2022. Expectations were 0.5%, with the prior reading at 0.5%. US April core PPI came in at 5.2% YoY (expectations: 4.3%, prior: 3.8%). US April core PPI rose 1% MoM (expectations: 0.3%, prior: 0.1%). The money market has now priced in approximately 24 basis points of rate hikes ahead of the Fed's June 2027 policy meeting, up from 21 basis points at Tuesday's close. The market priced in roughly a 50% probability of one rate hike within 2026. (Wallstreetcn) According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the market has now priced in a probability of over 30% for a rate hike by December. Following the unexpectedly strong US April PPI data, the market believes it is now even harder for the US Fed to justify any interest rate cuts this year. In April, the PPI rose 1.4%, well above economists’ consensus expectations of 0.5%, indicating inflationary pressures were stronger than expected and reinforcing the market’s trend toward repricing the interest-rate path. (Jin10 Data) On the data front: Today will see the release of the UK Q1 preliminary annual GDP growth rate, the UK March three-month GDP monthly rate, the UK March manufacturing production monthly rate, Canada March wholesale sales monthly rate, the US weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending May 9, the US April retail sales monthly rate, the US April import price index monthly rate, and other data. In addition, attention should be paid to: 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari participating in a discussion hosted by the local chamber of commerce; the Bank of Canada releasing the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan taking part in a dialogue on the energy industry; 2028 FOMC voting member and Kansas City Fed President Schmid delivering remarks on “payments innovation and community banks”; and US President Trump paying a state visit to China. On crude oil: As of 11:41, oil prices in both markets edged up, with WTI up 0.42% and Brent up 0.4%. The market continued to focus on developments in the US-Iran situation. US Vice President Vance said on Wednesday local time: “On the negotiations with Iran, I think progress is being made. Right now we’re focused on the diplomatic track, and I spoke this morning with Special Envoy Witkoff and Kushner. The fundamental issue in the talks is whether we can make enough progress to meet the red lines set by Trump. That red line is very simple. He needs to be confident that we have put in place sufficient safeguards to ensure Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon.” Commenting on the previously released CPI data, Vance said: “Last month’s inflation data wasn’t ideal. The President, I, and the entire team care about the financial situation of the American people.” (Jin10 Data) OPEC’s monthly report showed that Saudi Arabia’s daily crude oil production in April fell to 6.316 million barrels, the lowest since 1990. Saudi Arabia also reported to OPEC that “actual market supply,” excluding the portion injected into storage, was slightly higher than production, reaching a daily average of 6.879 million barrels. (Wallstreetcn) Hunter Hunt, grandson of Texas oil tycoon H.L. Hunt, worried that damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East could lead to a decline in oil production over the next few years. Hunt discussed many Iran-war-related issues, including production shutdowns, refinery damage, and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world’s crude oil had once been transported. “This is literally the nightmare that no one wants to see in their plans," Hunt said on Wednesday. Hunt rarely speaks publicly. He runs the 91-year-old Hunt Oil Company, which operates globally, including in Yemen and the Kurdistan region of Iraq. (Jin Shi Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM News, May 14: Metals market: Overnight, domestic market base metals all rose. SHFE copper was up 0.38%. SHFE aluminum was up 1.25%, SHFE lead was up 0.42%. SHFE zinc was up 0.71%. SHFE tin was up 2.12%. SHFE nickel was up 0.88%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract was up 0.43%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract was up 1.01%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose, while iron ore and rebar both edged down, with declines within 0.1%. Stainless steel was up 0.3%, and hot-rolled coil edged up. Coking coal and coke: coking coal was up 0.69%, coke was up 0.78%. Overnight, overseas market metals saw LME base metals rise across the board. LME copper edged up 0.02%. LME aluminum was up 2.14%, LME lead was up 0.33%. LME zinc was up 0.55%. LME tin was up 2.89%. LME nickel was up 1.27%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold was up 0.22%, COMEX silver was up 3%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract was up 0.11%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract was up 3.38%. As of 7:08 AM on May 14, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [SAMR: Launching Special Campaign to Remove Obstacles Hindering Unified Market and Fair Competition] It was learned today from a press conference held by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) that SAMR has deployed a special campaign to remove obstacles hindering the unified market and fair competition, running from May through December. The campaign focuses on four types of obstacles: hindering fair market entry and independent business operations, restricting free flow of goods and factors, applying different standards for domestic and foreign qualification certification, and improperly implementing credit evaluations to set hidden barriers in tender and bid processes. The campaign will further intensify enforcement, review, and inspection efforts to strictly rectify improper interference with market competition in accordance with the law. By year-end, a number of major cases will be investigated and handled, a batch of policies and measures hindering the national unified market and fair competition will be abolished or amended, a number of typical cases will be publicly exposed, and a batch of institutional mechanisms will be expedited, to make market foundational systems such as fair competition and quality standards more scientific and comprehensive, local government economic promotion activities more standardized and orderly, market regulatory enforcement more fair and impartial, and the market environment more transparent and predictable. (CCTV News) [Hunan Introduces Policies to Support Acquisition of Existing Commercial Housing and Housing Trade-in Programs] The Hunan Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, together with nine departments including the Provincial Development and Reform Commission and the Provincial Department of Finance, issued the "Several Measures of Hunan Province to Further Promote Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market." This "New Xiang Ten Measures" is an optimization and upgrade based on the 2025 "Several Measures of Hunan Province to Promote Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market," focusing on the acquisition of existing commercial housing, housing trade-in programs, "quality housing" construction, the "Three Ones" housing project, and optimization of housing provident fund policies, with relevant support measures formulated. The "New Xiang Ten Measures" specify that for those purchasing newly built commercial housing within the province and applying for loans (including housing provident fund loans and commercial loans), housing unit counts shall be determined at the county/city/district (park) level; for those who already own housing in the county/city/district (park) where the intended purchase is located, one housing unit shall be deducted from the count; and the policy of a minimum 30% down payment ratio for commercial property loans shall be implemented. (Hunan Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development) US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index was up 0.19%, closing at 98.48. Data released on Wednesday showed that US April PPI surged 1.4% MoM, while the March figure was also revised up to a 0.7% increase. This was the largest increase since March 2022, with both goods and services prices rising, versus market expectations of just 0.5%, in line with the initially reported 0.5% for March. Since the beginning of this year, producer prices have continued to strengthen, partly due to rising energy costs, as Middle East conflicts disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global supply chains and causing shortages of fertilizers, aluminum, and various consumer goods. PPI rose 6.0% YoY, the largest increase since December 2022, significantly higher than March's 4.0%, partly because the low base effect from last year has gradually exited the statistical window, thereby pushing up the current YoY reading. (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market has now priced in a probability of over 30% for an interest rate hike by December. Following the unexpectedly strong US April PPI data, the market believes it is now even harder for the US Fed to justify any interest rate cuts this year. The April PPI increase of 1.4% was significantly above economists' consensus expectation of 0.5%, indicating stronger-than-expected inflationary pressures and reinforcing the market's trend of repricing the interest rate path. (Jin10 Data) US Fed's Collins said on Wednesday that she expected interest rates to remain stable for an extended period and believed that in certain scenarios, further tightening may be needed to ensure inflation returns to the 2% target. She noted that conventional monetary policy typically "looks through" sudden supply shocks, such as oil price increases. However, given that inflation has been above target for more than five consecutive years, she believed patience for tolerating price increases is declining. Collins said the current tight monetary policy "may need to be maintained for some time." She noted: "Shocks have slightly increased downside risks to economic activity, while upside risks to inflation have further increased." She also said that if inflation pulls back, the US Fed could still continue to cut interest rates later this year. Collins added, however, that if conflicts persist and drive prices further upward, "I can envision a scenario in which tightening policy is needed to ensure inflation returns to 2% sustainably and within a reasonable timeframe." (Jin10 Data) Macro: Data to be released today include: UK Q1 GDP annual rate preliminary reading, UK March three-month GDP monthly rate, UK March manufacturing output monthly rate, Canada March wholesale sales monthly rate, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 9, US April retail sales monthly rate, US April import price index monthly rate, among others. In addition, attention should also be paid to: 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari participating in a discussion hosted by a local chamber of commerce; Bank of Canada releasing monetary policy meeting minutes; 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan participating in a dialogue on the energy sector; 2028 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid delivering a speech on "Payment Innovation and Community Banking"; US President Trump making a state visit to China. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures declined, with WTI down 1.15% and Brent down 1.9%. The US-Iran situation remained stagnant, and concerns over the possibility of a US Fed rate hike put oil prices under pressure. EIA report: US petroleum products four-week average supply was 20.051 million barrels/day, up 1.08% YoY; commercial crude oil inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by 4.306 million barrels to 453 million barrels, a decline of 0.94%. In addition, Bank of Canada meeting minutes indicated that if oil prices remain elevated, interest rate hikes would be needed. OPEC monthly report: OPEC+ April crude oil production averaged 33.19 million barrels/day, down 1.74 million barrels from March, as the Iran war prompted Middle Eastern member states to cut production. The 2026 global crude oil demand growth forecast was lowered from 1.38 million barrels/day to 1.17 million barrels/day, while the 2027 global crude oil demand growth forecast was raised from 1.34 million barrels/day to 1.54 million barrels/day. (Jin10 Data)

Published: May 11, 2026 - 11:43 PM Updated: May 11, 2026 - 11:46 PM (Kitco News) - Gold prices remain stuck in neutral, with prices starting the new trading week below $4,700 an ounce; however, analysts remain optimistic that prices will recover through the second half of the year as investment demand remains healthy, with global gold-backed exchange-traded funds seeing inflows in April. Last month, 45 tonnes of gold valued at $6.575 billion flowed into global ETFs, according to the World Gold Council’s latest monthly report, published last Thursday. April’s increase was a welcome rebound from March’s outflows of 84.3 tonnes. The WGC said that global holdings increased to 4,137 tonnes, the third-highest level ever and just below the record high of 4,176 tonnes set in February. Looking at the regional breakdown of gold demand, the report said that European-listed gold ETFs saw the biggest inflows last month. European investors bought nearly 27 tonnes of gold in April, valued at US$3.7 billion. “The UK led the surge, while Switzerland and Germany also contributed meaningfully. Positive flows in the region appeared linked to heightened geopolitical and geoeconomic risks, as investors assessed the inflationary implications of a more protracted Iran conflict and the associated pressure on energy prices,” the analysts said in the report. North American investors remained a consistent presence in the gold market, with regional funds seeing inflows of 6.1 tonnes, valued at $1 billion. Although investment demand among Western investors improved last month, analysts at the WGC said the market remains vulnerable due to the ongoing war in Iran. The chaos in the Middle East has created a historic global energy supply shock, which is driving oil prices higher and igniting inflationary fears. Higher inflation could force central banks to take a more hawkish stance on monetary policy, raising rates and increasing the opportunity costs of holding gold . Despite near-term downside risks, analysts at the WGC said that gold’s long-term uptrend remains intact, just waiting for a new spark to ignite another bullish rally. “The near-term setup is not especially friendly. Gold is technically vulnerable, rate-cut expectations have moved out, and markets are treating the shock as temporary. Absent a fresh catalyst, this could remain a weak period for gold,” the analysts said. While Western demand is expected to remain vulnerable, Asian investors continue to pile into precious metals. The WGC said that Asian-listed gold ETFs saw inflows of more than 11 tonnes, valued at $1.8 billion. This is the eighth consecutive month the region has seen positive inflows. “The region remains important to watch, with year-to-date flows currently on pace to challenge last year’s record total. China led the region: funds in Hong Kong SAR added US$732 million, a record month, supported by new product listings; and gold ETFs in Mainland China continued to draw inflows amid elevated geopolitical tensions, falling yields, and continued official-sector gold-buying announcements,” the analysts said. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-05-11/global-gold-etfs-see-fresh-inflows-despite-rising-inflation-risks