In H1 2026, the refined zinc industry struggled under multiple pressures. Ore supply remained tight, with both domestic and imported zinc concentrate TCs falling to record lows since data records began in 2013, directly squeezing smelter profits, and some enterprises have already fallen into losses. How will the refined zinc market develop in H2?

[June Refined Zinc Production to Decline, Smelter Profitability in Focus] According to SMM data, China's refined zinc production in May 2026 was down 0.41% MoM but up over 5.8% YoY. Cumulative smelter production from January to May was up nearly 5.8% YoY, exceeding expectations.

As of September 29, the most-traded SHFE zinc contract closed at 21,800 yuan/mt, down 340 yuan/mt for the month, a decline of 1.54%. Zinc prices remained stable and consolidated throughout September before starting a downward trend mid-month and hitting a low of 21,665 yuan/mt by the end of the month. How will zinc prices perform in October?