Canada Nickel said on July 31 it received a positive Decision Statement from Canada's Minister of Environment, Climate Change and Nature for its Crawford nickel project in the Timmins district of northeastern Ontario, the first mining approval issued under the amended Impact Assessment Act since 2019. The project was referred to the federal Major Projects Office and selected for Ontario's One Project, One Process framework. CEO Mark Selby said the federal permit took four years and the project moved from its fifth drill hole to this milestone in under seven. The company will now advance detailed engineering, financing and remaining provincial and federal permits ahead of a construction decision targeted for 2027. Crawford would also be North America's only primary chromium source.

Canada Nickel's Crawford nickel project in Ontario has received federal approval following the completion of Canada's impact assessment process, clearing a key regulatory milestone for project development. The Crawford project is expected to become one of the world's largest nickel operations and is the first mining project approved under Canada's 2019 Impact Assessment Act. The company estimates the mine will have a 41-year operating life and play a strategic role in supplying low-carbon nickel for the electric vehicle battery and stainless steel industries.

On July 22, 2026, the first batch of spodumene concentrate produced by Manono Lithium – a company 54.9% owned by Zijin Mining – was shipped from Mutowa Port in Tanganyika Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), bound for international markets via Kigoma, Tanzania. Prior to shipment, the cargo was inspected and certified by the DRC's Centre d'Expertise, d'Évaluation et de Certification des Substances Minérales (CEEC), which stated that this transport marks the country's first-ever export of lithium products. The Governor of Tanganyika Province supervised the loading and noted that the shipment represents a key milestone for the province's integration into the regional mining trade network. He also called on the operating company to prioritize local hiring, so that the development of the mineral supply chain can generate more jobs and broader economic benefits for local residents. However, the commercial significance of the shipment remains difficult to assess, as the export volume, concentrate grade, transaction value, buyer identity, and final destination after arrival in Kigoma have not been disclosed. Future export plans have also not been announced.Manono Lithium operates the northeastern part of the Manono deposit under mining permit PE 15775. Its shareholding structure is: Zijin Mining affiliates hold 54.9%, DRC state-owned mining company Cominière holds 35.1%, and the DRC government holds 10%. The project is designed to process 5 million tonnes of ore annually, with a target output of approximately 1 million tonnes of spodumene concentrate per year. Subsequent crushing, flotation, and lithium compound processing facilities will be built in phases, and the first-stage lithium sulphate raw material production project is expected to be completed by the end of 2026.

July 31, 2026 – The main alumina futures contract closed at 2,621 yuan/ton today, extending its recent weak performance. On the previous trading day (July 30), prices briefly touched an intraday low of 2,617 yuan/ton, plunging 1.37% in a single session and marking a fresh near-term trough. Under the combined bearish pressures of sustained supply expansion, intensifying import competition, and fading speculative sentiment, the alumina market is undergoing a fundamental-driven valuation correction. However, unlike the sharp downturn seen in late 2025, the current significantly higher feedstock costs are building a support floor that may prove difficult to break through decisively. On the supply front, domestic alumina operating capacity remains persistently elevated, with incremental pressure continuing to accumulate. In the Guangxi region, previously idled production lines from maintenance shutdowns are steadily resuming operations, gradually restoring regional supply capacity. Meanwhile, the southern region still faces nearly 3 million tonnes of new capacity slated for release in the coming months, further reinforcing market expectations of a loosening supply landscape. The fading excitement surrounding bauxite supply news has further undermined sentimental support for futures prices. Concerns over Guinean bauxite supply disruptions, which once rattled the market, have gradually receded from the spotlight as time passes. With speculative long positions exiting amid waning media attention, the market has lost its sentiment premium, and prices are reverting to supply-demand fundamentals. Overseas supply continues to weigh heavily on the domestic market. Alumina imports have surged significantly this year, with port inventories climbing to a lofty 940,000 tonnes. The persistent inflow of foreign alumina has not only supplemented domestic availability but also placed sustained downward pressure on spot quotations. Weakening spot prices have formed a negative feedback loop with the futures market, reinforcing the downward price spiral. Nevertheless, despite the layered bearish arguments, current prices are not without defense. Compared with the December 2025 selloff that bottomed at 2,437 yuan/ton, expectations for downside floors differ markedly this time. Back then, Guinean bauxite prices were quoted only around $60/ton, while current prices have climbed to the $70-75/ton range, driving the industry average fully-loaded cost to approximately 2,530 yuan/ton. This materially higher cost base implies that even with deeply bearish fundamentals, a repeat of the free-fall price rout is unlikely to materialize, as cost support effects will strengthen marginally as prices decline. The potential opening of export arbitrage remains one of the few upside catalysts on the horizon. Should overseas alumina prices continue to rise while domestic prices remain subdued, widening the price differential sufficiently to cover export costs, export channels could open periodically, providing a marginal outlet for excess domestic capacity. However, even if such a window materializes, the volumes that can be diverted are unlikely to offset the incremental pressure from new capacity additions in the southern region. Export opportunities are more likely to serve as short-term sentiment-driven rebound catalysts rather than a sufficient condition for a trend reversal. Taken together, alumina prices are expected to trade within a narrow range in the near term, caught between the bearish excess supply narrative and cost support. The core trading range is projected at 2,600-2,650 yuan/ton. Given that market fundamentals are expected to remain loose through August, futures prices could breach the key 2,600 yuan psychological level, though downside potential appears limited by rigid cost support on the mining side.

[SMM Express] South Africa's enforcement drive against illegal chrome mining in Limpopo has escalated through mid-2026, with the Hawks arresting five suspects, aged 43 to 50, at an illegal chrome mining site in the Thabazimbi policing area on 12–13 July. The operation, run by the Limpopo Serious Organized Crime Investigation team alongside local SAPS units, the Criminal Record Centre and the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, resulted in charges of illegal mining and contravening environmental law; the suspects appeared at the Thabazimbi Magistrate's Court on 14 July. The arrests form part of a broader, active pattern rather than an isolated incident. In late May, the Asset Forfeiture Unit secured a R4.5 million forfeiture order covering trucks and trailers linked to illegal chrome mining in the Sekhukhune district, and in early July a separate court ruling allowed authorities to seize seven trucks loaded with chrome ore from another illegal operation. Together, the cases point to sustained, coordinated action across Limpopo's chrome belt targeting the trucks, sites and proceeds tied to unlicensed chrome extraction.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has issued the 15th Five‑Year Plan for Green and Low‑Carbon Industrial Development, which calls for consolidating and upgrading green competitive industries. It accelerates technological iteration and scenario expansion in key sectors such as new energy vehicles (NEVs), new energy equipment, and new‑type energy storage. It promotes innovative applications of next‑generation power batteries, automotive‑grade chips, and automotive operating systems, and expands the deployment of heavy‑duty NEV trucks in scenarios including trunk line transport, short‑and‑medium‑haul logistics, urban construction, and mining and port operations. It substantially increases the share of green electricity used in polysilicon production, breaks through design and manufacturing technologies for highly reliable wind turbines in desert‑Gobi‑wasteland, high‑altitude, and deep‑sea environments, and promotes the integrated application of wind‑solar‑storage equipment tailored to local conditions. It accelerates the development of large‑capacity, high‑safety, all‑climate, long‑life lithium‑battery products, extends high‑performance lithium batteries to applications in low‑altitude equipment, intelligent robots, electric vessels, electric construction machinery, and new‑energy agricultural machinery, and expands new‑type energy storage applications in areas such as coordinated power supply operation and grid stability support.

Since July, demand across the LFP industry chain has continued to rise, but the supply-side response has lagged. The most notable feature of the current market is that supply tightness is rapidly transmitting from downstream to upstream, creating a cascading inversion of "battery cell production schedule > LFP cathode production schedule > iron phosphate production schedule."

Executive Summary Australia is a major supplier of feedstock to the Asia-Pacific zinc smelting system, but its supply structure is shifting from dominance by a small number of mature mines to a mix of mine closures, volatility at existing operations and ramp-ups at new projects. Glencore's Mount Isa zinc-lead business includes George Fisher and the nearby Lady Loretta mine, which reached the end of its mine life in late 2025. Meanwhile, Dugald River, McArthur River, Rosebery, Century, Cannington and Golden Grove remain the core of zinc concentrate supply from Australia, while newly commissioned or restarted projects such as Federation, Woodlawn and Endeavor have begun contributing incremental output. Zinc mine supply in Australia fell sharply in 2024 due to extreme weather, difficult underground mining conditions and changes in ore sequencing. It recovered in 2025 as McArthur River returned to normal and Dugald River delivered record production. In H1 2026, Glencore's operations in Australia produced 218 kt of zinc in concentrate, down 54 kt year on year, with roughly 51 kt of the reduction attributable to Lady Loretta's closure. Dugald River produced 87.2 kt of zinc in concentrate over the same period, indicating that the overall decline was driven primarily by the exit of a specific mature mine rather than by simultaneous cuts across all core operations. Supply from Australia should therefore be assessed on three horizons. In the short term, the focus is on wet-season disruptions to railways, ports and vessel schedules. Over the medium term, the key issues are the permanent loss of Lady Loretta, Century's approaching tailings-resource limit around 2027 and Cannington's lower operating rates, alongside the ramp-up of Federation, Woodlawn, Endeavor and the Gossan Valley mining front at Golden Grove. Changes in supply from Australia will affect arrivals in China and spot TCs, but the final assessment must also account for global net mine-supply growth and feedstock demand from smelters in China and overseas. I. Zinc Mine Supply in Australia: Mine Closures and New Capacity Ramp-Ups Australia's main zinc mines are located in Queensland, the Northern Territory, Tasmania, New South Wales and Western Australia. Major existing operations include Glencore's Mount Isa zinc-lead business and McArthur River, MMG's Dugald River and Rosebery, Sibanye-Stillwater's Century, South32's Cannington, and 29Metals' Golden Grove. Newly commissioned or restarted projects such as Federation, Woodlawn and Endeavor mean that supply from Australia is no longer determined solely by Mount Isa and Dugald River. The chart shows that Australia's zinc concentrate production has remained relatively high in recent years, although year-to-year volatility has been significant. In 2024, extreme weather at McArthur River and increasingly complex underground mining conditions at Cannington caused a marked decline in supply. McArthur River's recovery and higher production at Dugald River drove a rebound in 2025, before Lady Loretta's closure weighed on output again in 2026. Supply from Australia is therefore not static; it reflects the combined effects of recoveries, declines and additions across individual mines. Performance among existing assets has diverged markedly. Dugald River produced 183.5 kt of zinc in concentrate in 2025, up 12% year on year and a record annual result. MMG's Rosebery produced approximately 48.6 kt over the same period. Century's tailings reprocessing operation produced about 101 kt of payable zinc in concentrate in 2025, although the existing tailings project is approaching a mine-life milestone around 2027. Cannington produced approximately 44.5 kt of payable zinc in FY2025, with guidance of about 40 kt for FY2026 and 43 kt for FY2027, indicating a relatively stable but lower production profile. Lady Loretta's closure has created a confirmed supply loss. Glencore data show that zinc concentrate production in Australia fell 20% year on year in H1 2026, with most of the decline attributable to the mine reaching the end of its life in late 2025. Looking ahead to 2027–2030, supply from Australia will be shaped by offsets between losses and additions. Century faces the gradual depletion of its tailings resource, while Cannington is constrained by more complex underground mining conditions. On the upside, Federation continues to ramp up, Woodlawn has returned to stable production, the Gossan Valley mining front at Golden Grove is expected to deliver first ore in H2 2026, and Endeavor's restart will add supply. Australia's medium-term supply outlook is therefore not a one-way contraction, but rather a period in which retiring mines hand over to new sources of production. II. China's Imports from Australia: Monthly Volatility Does Not Necessarily Signal Mine-Supply Cuts The chart shows that China's imports of zinc concentrate from Australia are highly seasonal and sensitive to shipment schedules. A monthly decline may reflect lower mine output, but it may also result from rail disruptions, delayed port loading, ocean transit times, customs-clearance timing or changes in smelter procurement. A subsequent spike may simply represent delayed cargoes arriving in a later month. Import data should therefore be assessed against at least three sets of information: the gap between miners' production and sales, operating conditions on railways and at ports in northern Australia, and arrival patterns at China's major ports. The low readings in 2024 should not automatically be equated with a lasting production decline. Likewise, the 2026 trend should be assessed primarily on the basis of cumulative imports rather than exaggerated moves in individual months. III. Why Does the Wet Season Affect Zinc Concentrate Exports from Australia? The wet season in northern Australia typically runs from October to April, while the tropical cyclone season lasts from November to April. The 2025–2026 northern wet season was the seventh-wettest on record, with average rainfall of about 684 mm, 44% above the long-term average. Eleven tropical cyclones occurred in the region surrounding Australia during the season. Many zinc mines in Australia are located inland, requiring concentrate to be transported over long distances to port. For example, the Mount Isa mining complex relies on rail links to the Port of Townsville; McArthur River ships through the Bing Bong loading facility; and Century is connected by slurry pipeline to the Port of Karumba. Zinc concentrate from Australia is shipped not only to China but also to South Korea and other overseas smelters. Weather disruptions therefore first affect individual transport corridors before feeding through to the Asia-Pacific spot market. Heavy rainfall and flooding generally affect the market through the following chain: Flooding or cyclones → rail and road disruptions → delayed port loading and vessel schedules → inventory accumulation at mines → delayed and lower arrivals in China In Q1 2026, Dugald River still produced 41.1 kt of zinc concentrate despite flooding and rail disruptions. However, logistics constraints caused concentrate sales to fall short of production, leaving some inventory temporarily stockpiled at the mine. This shows that extreme weather often affects transportation and shipment timing rather than directly impairing mine capacity. Once rail and port operations resume, accumulated concentrate may be shipped in a concentrated wave, allowing China's imports to rebound. Flood impacts are therefore usually temporary and should not automatically be treated as a permanent loss of mine supply from Australia. IV. Why Do Changes in Supply from Australia Affect TCs? Zinc concentrate treatment charges (TCs) are fees paid by miners or concentrate sellers to smelters for processing. They essentially reflect the balance between concentrate supply and smelter demand over a given period. Changes in mine supply and logistics in Australia can alter regional spot-market tightness, but the direction of TCs is not determined by any single country. In general: Ample zinc concentrate supply gives smelters more feedstock options and generally pushes TCs higher; Tight zinc concentrate supply intensifies competition for feedstock and generally pushes TCs lower. Australia is an important source of zinc concentrate for the Asia-Pacific region and the global market. When shipments from Australia are delayed and arrivals in China decline while domestic smelters maintain strong feedstock demand, competition for spot concentrate may intensify and spot TCs may come under short-term pressure. If delayed cargoes subsequently arrive in a concentrated wave, or incremental supply from other regions becomes available in time, the impact may dissipate relatively quickly. At the global mine-supply level, the outlook for 2026 is not a one-way contraction. Kipushi in the Democratic Republic of the Congo produced 70.2 kt of contained zinc in concentrate in Q2, marking a seventh consecutive quarter-on-quarter increase. In Australia, Woodlawn returned to stable production, Federation continued to ramp up and Endeavor's restart added new supply. These gains are being offset by the closure of Lady Loretta, Antamina's shift to a copper-rich, zinc-poor ore sequence, feedstock-blending constraints at Kazzinc and the potential depletion of Century's tailings resource around 2027. Global mine supply is therefore increasingly characterised by simultaneous growth at new mines and declines at mature assets. TC assessments should therefore focus on whether annual net additions are sufficient to offset losses, as well as changes in smelter operating rates in China and overseas. In the short term, the key variables are rail and port conditions in Australia and arrivals in China. Over the medium term, additions from Kipushi, Woodlawn and Federation should be weighed against reductions at Lady Loretta, Antamina and Century. Only by assessing the global mine balance alongside smelter demand can the market determine whether pressure on TCs is temporary or structural. Conclusion Australia's zinc mine supply is moving through a handover between mature and emerging assets. Lady Loretta's closure represents a confirmed loss, while established operations such as Mount Isa's zinc-lead business and McArthur River are expected to focus on stable production. Dugald River remains resilient, and Rosebery, Century, Cannington and Golden Grove continue to underpin existing supply. Meanwhile, newly commissioned and restarted projects are beginning to add incremental tonnes. In the short term, the wet season and flooding mainly affect the timing of China's imports through disruptions to railways, ports and vessel schedules, rather than causing permanent capacity losses. Over the medium term, supply from Australia in 2027–2030 will depend on the balance between potential declines—such as the depletion of Century's resource and Cannington's lower operating rates—and growth from the ramp-up of Federation, Woodlawn, Endeavor and the Gossan Valley mining front at Golden Grove. For TCs, fluctuations in supply from Australia can affect the Asia-Pacific spot market but cannot by themselves determine the long-term global zinc concentrate balance. The market should track mine production and sales in Australia, logistics in northern Australia, China's cumulative imports, developments at overseas mines such as Kipushi, Antamina and Kazzinc, and smelter operating rates in China and overseas. Only if global net mine-supply growth remains insufficient while smelter demand stays high will supply losses in Australia translate into sustained downward pressure on TCs.

July 31 report: North China ports: 46% Australian lumps 40.5-41 yuan/mtu, down WoW; South African semi-carbonate 33.5-34 yuan/mtu, down WoW; Gabonese 38.3-38.7 yuan/mtu, down WoW; South African high-iron 28.8-29.3 yuan/mtu, down WoW; South African medium-iron 36-36.5 yuan/mtu, flat WoW. South China ports: 46% Australian lumps 42.9-43.4 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; South African semi-carbonate 36.5-37 yuan/mtu, down WoW; Gabonese 41.1-41.6 yuan/mtu, up WoW; South African high-iron 31.2-31.7 yuan/mtu, down WoW; South African medium-iron 38-38.5 yuan/mtu, flat WoW. Manganese ore prices continue to grind lower, end-use demand remains weak, and it is common for traders to sell at lower prices.

[SMM Analysis] The demand along the LFP industry chain continues to rise, but the response from the supply side is significantly lagging. The most notable feature of the current market is that supply tightness is rapidly transmitting from the bottom up, forming a cascading inversion of "battery cell production schedule > LFP cathode production schedule > iron phosphate production schedule," with the slow release of LFP capacity and the iron phosphate industry segment having become the most prominent bottleneck in the entire chain.