[China Iron Ore Brief Review: Iron Ore Concentrate Prices in the Tangshan Region May Hold Up Well] In Shandong, the pre-tax dry-basis price of 64-grade alkaline fines at mines and beneficiation plants fell by 5 yuan to 894 yuan, and steelmakers lowered prices in tandem. Most miners maintained normal production, with no significant inventory buildup and basically no inventory at most operations. Steelmakers continued to purchase under long-term contracts, mainly purchasing as needed while maintaining low inventory operations. On the news front, external market disruptions remained unabated, and imported ore prices stayed at a relatively high level, which may provide some support for domestic iron ore

[China Iron Ore Brief Review: Iron Ore Concentrate Prices in Shandong May Continue to Fluctuate] In Shandong, the pre-tax dry-basis price of 64-grade alkaline iron ore concentrates at mines and beneficiation plants fell by 5 yuan to 894 yuan, while steel mills also lowered prices in tandem. Most miners maintained normal production, inventory accumulation was not obvious, and most basically had no inventory. Steel mills’ purchases under long-term contracts remained unchanged, with most purchasing as needed and maintaining low inventory operations. On the news front, external market disruptions have not eased, and imported ore prices have remained at a relatively high level, which may provide some support for domestic iron ore

Since the beginning of this year, the spot treatment charge market for copper concentrates has shown an unprecedented and severe downward trend. The SMM Copper Concentrate Spot Index has fallen from -45 USD/dmt at the start of the year to near -70 USD/dmt, with the speed and magnitude of the decline being historically rare. A negative treatment charge means that when smelters purchase copper concentrates, they not only fail to receive traditional processing income from miners but instead must pay the sellers. Based on the current TC of -70 USD/dmt, the actual cost smelters pay sellers in the copper smelting process is equivalent to a TC of 70 USD, or further converted to a TC+RC of approximately 112 USD. This extreme price signal has quickly drawn high market attention to smelter profitability and even sparked concerns about the sustainability of domestic copper smelting production. Despite treatment charges falling to historic lows, copper cathode production by Chinese smelters remains at high levels, currently around 1.2 million tons per month. This phenomenon of "producing more while losing more" appears, on the surface, to contradict market logic, but actually reflects smelters' passive choices and structural supporting factors in the current complex environment. Historically, extreme treatment charge scenarios are not unprecedented. In past industry downturns, smelters often relied on one or several factors—exchange rate fluctuations, rising sulfuric acid prices, or treatment charges themselves—to barely maintain cash flow balance. In the current cycle, the sharp rise in sulfuric acid prices has become a key variable supporting smelter survival. Currently, the ex-factory prices of smelter acid sold by domestic copper smelters generally range from 800 to 1,600 yuan per ton. The latest SMM Copper Smelting Acid Index stands at 1,235.5 yuan/ton. As a crucial byproduct of copper smelting, sulfuric acid price fluctuations significantly impact smelters' comprehensive earnings. Typically, smelters produce approximately one ton of sulfuric acid for every dry metric ton of copper concentrate processed. Based on the current sulfuric acid price of 1,235.5 yuan/ton, after deducting value-added tax (at a 13% rate) and converting to US dollars (using an exchange rate of 6.9), each ton of sulfuric acid can contribute about 158 USD in revenue for the smelter, equivalent to an additional 158 USD per dry metric ton of copper concentrate. If further converted to the TC+RC metric, this amounts to about 99 USD. Thus, the rise in sulfuric acid prices has significantly offset the loss pressure from negative copper concentrate treatment charges, with some more efficient smelters even achieving marginal profitability. It is precisely this "stabilizer" role of sulfuric acid that allows smelters to maintain high operating rates under extreme treatment charge conditions. However, the support of sulfuric acid for smelting profits is not unlimited, as its price trend is itself influenced by more complex international geopolitical factors. The recent sharp escalation of the Middle East situation has brought significant uncertainty to the global sulfuric acid and sulfur supply chain. Since the joint US-Israeli military strike against Iran on February 28, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical energy transport route, has rapidly fallen into a severe transit crisis. After taking office, Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, immediately declared that the strait would remain closed as a strategic lever against the US-Israeli alliance and suggested that neighboring countries close US military bases. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps subsequently explicitly announced a ban on any vessels associated with the US or Israel from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, warning of severe consequences for unauthorized passage. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global sulfur transport. Statistics show that before the conflict, over 100 ships passed through the strait daily. However, after the conflict erupted, transit traffic plummeted by over 90%, with extreme cases of no ships passing for an entire day, leaving over 3,000 vessels stranded in nearby waters. This effective blockade has not only directly impacted the crude oil market—with Brent crude futures rising over 50% within a month to exceed 114 USD per barrel—but has also severely disrupted the global supply chain for sulfur and sulfuric acid. War risks have caused shipping insurance costs to soar to over 20% of the cargo value, further increasing logistics costs and plunging global sulfur supply into a logistical crisis. Although Iran claims to allow passage for vessels from "non-hostile" countries, requiring them to obtain prior permission, actual transit volumes remain extremely low, far below global trade demand. Simultaneously, the Houthi armed group in Yemen has announced its involvement, posing new security threats to the Red Sea-Suez route. The compounding pressure on the two major shipping chokepoints of the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea is posing a systemic challenge to the global supply chains for energy and chemical raw materials. As the primary raw material for sulfuric acid production, the disruption in sulfur supply directly drives international and domestic sulfuric acid prices progressively higher. Given the current situation, geopolitical conflicts show no signs of easing in the short term, implying further room for sulfuric acid price increases. The continued rise in sulfuric acid prices will have a dual impact on the domestic copper smelting industry. On the one hand, increased sulfuric acid revenue will continue to provide crucial profit supplementation for smelters, enabling them to maintain production even at lower TC levels and potentially further depressing spot copper concentrate treatment charges. On the other hand, this surge in sulfuric acid prices, driven by geopolitical conflict, also makes smelter profitability highly dependent on external unstable factors, rendering the industry's overall risk resilience increasingly fragile. Notably, the extreme treatment charge environment has begun to have a tangible impact on the global layout of copper smelting capacity. Mitsubishi Materials of Japan recently announced its plan to cease operations at its Onahama copper smelter by the end of March 2027. The smelter has a crude and refined capacity of 230,000 tons, and the main reason for the closure is precisely the intensified competition in the global copper smelting industry, leading to a sharp deterioration in copper concentrate TC/RC and persistent pressure on business prospects. This decision sends a clear signal: against the backdrop of continuously bottoming treatment charges and industry profits highly dependent on byproducts and external environments, some high-cost smelting capacity or those lacking comprehensive recovery capabilities are facing pressure to exit the market. In summary, China's copper smelting industry is currently at a highly unusual cyclical juncture. On one hand, smelters, benefiting from high sulfuric acid prices, have temporarily weathered the impact of negative treatment charges, maintaining high output. On the other hand, sulfuric acid prices themselves are heavily dependent on geopolitical situations, and external variables like the Strait of Hormuz blockade introduce significant uncertainty into the sustainability of smelting profits. If tensions in the Middle East persist, sulfuric acid prices may continue to rise, leaving room for TC to fall further, potentially enhancing smelters' tolerance for extreme treatment charges in phases. However, if geopolitical tensions ease, sulfur supply chains recover, and sulfuric acid prices retreat from their highs, smelters would face the risk of a "double blow" from both low treatment charges and reduced byproduct revenue, potentially heralding a genuine phase of capacity reduction and deep adjustment for the industry. Therefore, the current apparent "resilience" of the copper smelting industry is essentially built upon a fragile balance between geopolitical factors and the byproduct market. For market participants, besides monitoring TC trends, it is crucial to closely track changes in sulfuric acid prices and the underlying geopolitical factors to make more accurate judgments regarding the production sustainability and profitability prospects of the smelting industry.

[Multiple Bearish Factors Stall the Uptrend; China’s Tantalum Market Undergoes Short-Term Adjustment While Medium and Long-Term Support Remains Solid] Recently, the sustained upward momentum in China’s tantalum products market came to a halt, with the overall market entering a phase of temporary consolidation and adjustment. Upward momentum slowed markedly in the short term, mainly due to three core factors: the transmission of macro sentiment, changes in circulating supply, and weakening raw material costs.

Nickel Ore " RKAB Approval Delays and Policy Shifts Expected to Drive Nickel Ore Prices Higher" Indonesian domestic nickel ore prices have risen significantly increase this week. For the first half of March, the Indonesian Nickel Ore Benchmark Price (HPM) was set at $17.329/dmt, an increase of 1.32%. However, according to SMM data, average premiums has increased for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were reported at $36, $40, and $40.5/wmt, respectively, with 1.6% grade reaching a delivered price of $67.6–$74.6/wmt. This strengthening of premiums reflects both the release of restocking demand from smelters and pessimistic expectations regarding RKAB quota reductions. Simultaneously, the delivery price for 1.2% grade limonite has edged up to $25–$27/wmt. Pyrometallurgical Ore: From a supply and demand perspective, Sulawesi is transitioning into the dry season; Konawe has reached optimal production levels, while Morowali is slightly experiencing thunderstorms in this week. However, Halmahera's region is slightly stable. Currently, The market is facing a clear trend of declining ore grades. While some NPI smelters have begun accepting grades of 1.45% or lower, the supply of high-grade saprolite remains tight. As of mid-March, the ESDM has approved approximately 100 million tons of RKAB quotas. The remaining 160 to 170 million tons are expected to be processed by the end of March. However, due to the Eid al-Fitr (Lebaran) holidays (March 18–24), approval progress is expected to lag, exacerbating short-term supply tightness. Faced with resource uncertainty, some smelters have increased trade bonuses to secure raw materials. Transactions for low-grade saprolite are emerging at fixed prices lower than high-grade ores. Conversely, Limonite prices remain low due to a tailings dam landslide at a major MHP project, which has forced production lines to operate at low loads, hindering demand recovery. However, Limonite prices are expected to eventually follow Saprolite upward due to new project stockpiling and external island demand. Hydrometallurgical Ore Hydrometallurgical ore is relatively sufficient, a tailings dam landslide at an MHP project in a certain industrial park has forced related production lines to operate at low loads, leading to a temporary weakness in demand. Because miners currently secure higher profit margins from saprolite, they are less inclined to produce and sell limonite. To counter this reluctance, and to navigate ongoing RKAB approval uncertainties, fulfill the stockpiling needs of newly commissioned projects, and meet rising demand from outer islands, smelters have been compelled to raise limonite bids to incentivize miners to release their lower-grade ore. Consequently, hydrometallurgical ore prices are projected to follow the upward trajectory of pyrometallurgical ore and remain at elevated levels." On the policy front, although rumors regarding the implementation and delayed release of the new tax policy persist, the specific execution details remain under internal review by relevant ministries. While operational details for specific products like NPI and MHP still await final inter-ministerial confirmation, current policy winds suggest that the era of duty-free exports for Indonesian intermediate nickel products may soon be coming to an end. Looking ahead, the continuous tightening of Indonesian policies is expected to open up further upside potential for nickel ore prices and exert a profound impact on the cost structure of the global nickel supply chain. Market Outlook: Due to the overall delay in RKAB approvals, upcoming nickel export tax/windfall tax policy, probable nickel benchmark price changes, as well as miners are unable to produce with their "old quota" in April, nickel ore prices in next month are expected to remain resilient with a strong "easy to rise, hard to fall" trend. Nickel Pig Iron "High-Grade NPI Under Short-Term Pressure Amid Upstream-Downstream Tug-of-War " The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price dropped by RMB 6.7 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1083.5 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index decreased by USD 1.38 USD per nickel unit to an average of USD 136.9 per nickel unit. Overall, the high-grade NPI market operated steadily. After transaction centers stabilized, the market entered a tug-of-war between upstream and downstream participants, leaving prices under short-term pressure. On the supply side, domestic nickel ore news has seen continuous disruptions. Upstream quotes were initially firm due to cost support; however, the market supply of scrap steel has increased significantly. Under the dual suppression of sluggish end-user demand and the economic advantage of scrap steel, upstream quotes for high-grade NPI have gradually weakened. In the stainless steel spot market, absolute social inventory levels remain high. Steel mills are maintaining high production schedules, leading to significant shipping pressure. Although there is some support on the cost side, the mills face considerable cost pressure themselves, and the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap has become prominent. Consequently, their acceptance of high-priced ferronickel is low, and their procurement attitude remains cautious. Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a weak but stable trend. In summary, NPI prices will remain in an upstream-downstream tug-of-war in the short term, with upside price pressure driven by competition from scrap steel and the limited purchasing willingness of stainless steel mills.

[SMM Weekly Review] This week (March 23–March 27), platinum prices rose first and then fell back. On the GFEX in China, the most-traded platinum futures contract PT2606 opened at 487.1 yuan/gram and closed at 493.05 yuan/gram, down 23.5 yuan/gram from the previous week's settlement price, a decline of 4.53%. The highest price during the week was 518.85 yuan/gram, and the lowest price during the week was 437.25 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium contract PD2606 opened at 355 yuan/gram and closed at 358.2 yuan/gram, down 16.15 yuan/gram from the previous week's settlement price, a decline of 4.31%. The highest price during the week was 380.65 yuan/gram, and the lowest price during the week was 321.15 yuan/gram. In futures trading, the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 posted total weekly trading volume of 46,314 lots, total turnover of 22.397 billion yuan, and open interest of 16,467 lots, with open interest down 2,049 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 posted total weekly trading volume of 24,537 lots, total turnover of 8.71 billion yuan, and open interest of 7,356 lots, with open interest down 492 lots WoW. Recently, as geopolitical conflict in the Middle East persisted, the precious metals market as a whole entered a stagflation panic mode. The specific logic was that the US-Iran conflict exceeded expectations, pushing up oil prices and thereby triggering concerns over imported inflation in the US, which in turn delayed the pace of interest rate cuts. Regarding the US-Iran conflict, on March 26, Trump announced a 10-day extension of the deadline for Iran's energy facilities; according to Iran's Tasnim News Agency, informed sources said Iran had concluded that the US negotiation statement was a "deception" project, with three real objectives under its cover: first, to deceive the international community by fabricating a posture of peace; second, to suppress global oil prices; third, to buy preparation time for an aggressive ground invasion launched from southern Iran. Regarding the independence of the US Fed, the US Department of Justice admitted that its investigation into Powell lacked evidence. On tariffs, after the US reciprocal tariff was overturned by the Supreme Court, policy uncertainty increased, and the Trump administration was seeking a more solid legal basis to reconstruct the tariff system: in the short term, using Section 122 temporary tariffs to fill the tariff-rate vacuum, and in the medium and long term, planning to rely on Sections 232 and 301 to maintain a high-tariff framework. In addition, the ruling that the tariffs were illegal triggered pressure for massive tax refunds, exacerbating the US fiscal burden and reinforcing expectations for a weaker US dollar. Supply side, Eskom will raise electricity prices by 8% for two consecutive years in the future, and recently frequent announcements of breakdowns in negotiations with the mine side have led some miners to shut down their international operations, triggering concerns over supply disruptions in platinum and palladium. In addition, continue to monitor changes in the US dollar index, which involve the relative strength of currencies such as the euro and the yen. Watch for details on the new manager announced by the LME. Monitor the latest changes in the Middle East political situation. The precious metals sector mainly benefited from the interplay between policy and the political environment under the US Fed's midterm election time window. Strategy-wise, a strategic bullish view on precious metals was still maintained, and pullbacks were seen as opportunities to build long positions for the medium and long-term. In the short term, as the risk of escalation in the Middle East conflict has not been eliminated, the strength of any rebound may remain limited, and prices may fluctuate at lows. Under high volatility in platinum and palladium, attention should be paid to position control. Due to the discontinuity between domestic and overseas market trading, the opening prices of platinum and palladium often refer to overseas night session conditions, and investors should pay attention to trading prices in international markets and stay alert to opening gaps.

March 27 News: Northern ports: South African high-grade ore was 36-37.9 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate was 43.5-44 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday; Gabon ore was 47.3-47.9 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday; 46% Australian lumps were 48-48.5 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday. South China ports: South African high-grade ore was 34.5-35 yuan/mtu, flat WoW from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate was 38.8-39.5 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday; Gabon ore was 44-44.5 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday; 46% Australian lumps were 45.2-45.7 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday.

[China Iron Ore Brief Review: Iron Ore in Shandong May Continue to Edge Higher] This week, at mines and beneficiation plants in Shandong, the ex-mine quote for 64 grade alkaline fines on a dry basis, before tax and settled by bank acceptance, was 899, up 17 yuan/mt. Steelmakers raised prices in tandem, most miners maintained normal production, and some mines slightly increased output. Steel mills showed moderate willingness to purchase, mainly under long-term contracts, while shipments from small plants and traders were also relatively good, with overall transactions improving; after a large mine in Zaozhuang resumed production

According to customs data, the total import volume of lithium spodumene in China from January to February 2026 was approximately 1.39 million physical tonnes: January imports reached 832,000 physical tonnes, up nearly 6% month-on-month and 41% year-on-year, equivalent to about 84,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE); February imports stood at 558,000 physical tonnes, down 33% month-on-month and approximately 2% year-on-year, equivalent to about 50,000 tonnes of LCE. Overall, the arrival volume in January reached an exceptionally high level, mainly due to the tight supply of lithium salts in the fourth quarter of 2025, which drove strong production enthusiasm among domestic lithium spodumene smelters and consequently led to a high demand for lithium ore. In February, arrivals declined due to the Chinese New Year holiday and potential vessel delays. By country of origin, Australia saw a 17% month-on-month recovery in January arrivals, significantly rebounding, supported by improved shipments from November to December 2025. However, after entering January, at the beginning of the quarter, Australian miners adopted a wait-and-see attitude toward lithium prices for the new year, leading to lower shipments. Combined with the Chinese New Year factor in February, arrivals in February decreased by 23% month-on-month. Zimbabwe entered the rainy season after October last year, resulting in a slight decline in concentrate output. Coupled with adjustments to export tax rates and the accounting period at the beginning of the year, arrivals fell by 35% and 18% month-on-month in January and February, respectively. Nigeria has seen a continuous rise in arrivals since June 2025, maintaining high levels. South Africa performed notably well, with arrivals remaining above 100,000 physical tonnes for three consecutive months from December 2025 to February 2026. In contrast, Brazil saw persistently low arrivals in January and February this year, as certain mines had not yet resumed production from October to December last year. Additionally, according to screening and analysis using the SMM model, lithium spodumene imports in January corresponded to approximately 84,000 tonnes of LCE, with lithium concentrate amounting to 636,000 physical tonnes, accounting for 76%. In February, lithium spodumene imports corresponded to 50,000 tonnes of LCE, with lithium concentrate amounting to 438,000 physical tonnes, accounting for 79%.

Refined Cobalt: This week, spot refined cobalt prices generally fluctuated around 430,000 yuan/mt. During the week, prices briefly surged on news of procurement by overseas traders and export controls in the DRC, but later pulled back into the fluctuation range as macro sentiment weakened and downstream procurement follow-through proved insufficient. In terms of supply, ex-factory prices at mainstream smelters remained stable, traders' spot-futures price spread quotations were steady, and there were no significant changes in the structure of cargoes circulating in the market. In terms of demand, affected by weak cost pass-through, downstream enterprises still showed low acceptance of high-priced raw materials and only maintained a pace of just-in-time stockpiling, with no significant increase seen in actual transactions. Fundamentally, the DRC's export control policy further increased uncertainty over cobalt intermediate products exports, while the pattern of structural tightness in China's raw material supply remained unchanged, continuing to provide bottom support for cobalt prices. Cobalt Intermediate Products: This week, cobalt intermediate product prices continued to hold steady, and the market remained in a pattern of "prices quoted but no trading." In terms of supply, the impact of the DRC's export control policy continued to unfold, market concerns over whether miners could ship smoothly intensified, suppliers' bullish expectations heated up, and they continued to withhold quotations, leaving extremely scarce spot cargoes available in the market. In terms of demand, although smelters still had willingness to procure raw materials, constrained by cobalt salt prices that struggled to catch up, and with downstream orders yet to become clear, enterprises maintained a cautious wait-and-see stance, and actual transactions remained sluggish. Overall, ongoing disruptions in the DRC's export process continued to cast doubt on the timing of bulk arrivals at port, and the structurally tight raw material situation in China may further intensify. Once downstream orders are gradually finalized and procurement demand restarts, intermediate product prices are still expected to have upward momentum. Close attention should be paid to the progress of DRC exports and the pace of downstream demand recovery. Cobalt Sulphate: This week, spot cobalt sulphate prices continued to remain stable. In terms of supply, supported by tight raw materials, most smelters held firm on quotations in the range of 95,000-98,000 yuan/mt. During the week, the DRC's export control document strengthened traders' expectations for a rise in future cobalt salt prices, and low-priced shipments in the market decreased significantly. In terms of demand, most enterprises remained concerned about future orders, and with their own raw material inventory relatively sufficient, they prioritized inventory consumption and only maintained sporadic just-in-time procurement, mainly at low prices. Overall, the market remained in the inventory digestion stage in the short term, with continued bargaining between sellers and buyers, and prices were mainly driven by rangebound adjustments. However, the DRC raw material supply issue has yet to be resolved, and cost support still exists. Once downstream inventories are depleted and procurement restarts, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to regain upward momentum.