Ferrous metals showed slight divergence this week, with coking coal outperforming while iron ore, coke, and coil and rebar were generally weaker, and iron ore led the decline. During the week, news of the U.S.-Iran conflict fluctuated, but the market...

Platinum prices consolidated on a subdued note today. Last week, US CPI data recorded a MoM decline, but Fed Chairman Warsh revealed a tough stance of zero tolerance towards high inflation during his congressional testimony. The hawkish remarks significantly scaled back the market’s dovish expectations, posing a key headwind to the rise in precious metals. Meanwhile, the renewed escalation of geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran pushed up oil prices, which further slowed the pace of the expected policy pivot retreat, continuing to drag on precious metals prices. In the morning session, the most-traded GFEX platinum contract PT2608 settled at 395.5 yuan/g, down 0.33%. The inverted price spread between the best offer price for SGE platinum 9995 and GFEX PT2608 was maintained at around 5 yuan/g. In the spot market, mainstream quotations for platinum were from parity to a premium of 1 yuan/g against the PT2608 contract, with relatively small changes in premiums/discounts from the previous trading day, or offered at a discount of around 3 yuan/g against the GFEX October contract. The price spread between the GFEX platinum October and August contracts narrowed today, and downstream buyers made small-volume purchases based on orders. Overall, trading in the spot platinum market was subdued today.

[Galvanising Operating Rate Edges Up]: The operating rate of the galvanising industry was 55.07% this week, up 1.56 percentage points WoW. Raw material side, zinc prices continued to consolidate at highs this week, with enterprises purchasing mainly on a need-to basis. Zinc ingot inventories at galvanising enterprises edged down.

[Rainy Season Arrives, Galvanizing Demand Weakens]: This week, the operating rate of the galvanizing industry was 53.51%, down 1.05 percentage points WoW. From the raw material side, zinc prices consolidated and rebounded this week, downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened, wait-and-see sentiment was relatively strong, and they mainly drew down raw material inventories, leading to a decline in zinc ingot inventories at galvanizing enterprises.

[Pr-Nd prices remain stable, while tight terbium-holmium supply supports medium-heavy rare earth strength] Yesterday, the scrap market prices were stable. Affected by the relatively small fluctuations in oxide quotations, recycling enterprises' external purchase offer prices did not show significant fluctuations, with just-in-time procurement dominating, and actual market transactions were moderate.

SMM, July 9: Today, the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract opened at 23,075 yuan/mt, reached a high of 23,095 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 22,850 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 23,060 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt or 0.04% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 165,200 lots and open interest was 227,700 lots, with a daily position drop of 4,248 lots. The price remained above the MA5 (22,960) and MA10 (22,822) but below the MA20 (23,332.75), MA40 (23,895.50), and MA60 (24,234.17). The short-term repair continued, but medium and long-term moving average pressure persisted on the upside. On the MACD indicator, the DIFF (-377.42) was above the DEA (-403.42), and a bar value of 52 was recorded. Short-term bearish momentum continued to narrow. Trading volume rose compared to the previous day, but the daily position drop of 4,248 lots showed continued capital outflow, suggesting insufficient upward momentum in the futures. SMM Commentary: Indirect technical talks between the US and Iran made progress as discussions focused on fund repatriation and strait security, and consultations on the nuclear issue are about to start. The geopolitical risk premium continued to converge, while disputes over the management of the Strait of Hormuz persist, leaving the strait's resumption of navigation still uncertain. A hawkish shift by the US Fed boosted the US dollar index, weighing on base metals prices. Aluminum prices in and outside China fell amid macro headwinds. In the short term, bearish factors dominated and aluminum prices are expected to continue in the doldrums. Today, the alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,704 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,728 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 2,698 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 2,720 yuan/mt, up 11 yuan/mt or 0.41%. Trading volume was 187,400 lots and open interest was 349,400 lots, with a daily position increase of 3,177 lots. The price reclaimed the MA5 (2,715.20) but stayed below the MA10 (2,750.60), MA20 (2,820.55), MA40 (2,808.73), and MA60 (2,813.25). It rebounded slightly in the short term, but the overall weak pattern has not yet reversed. On the MACD indicator, the DIFF (-34.63) was below the DEA (-19.66), and a bar value of -29.94 was recorded. Bearish momentum persisted but narrowed at the margin. Trading volume edged up from the previous day, and the daily position increase of 3,177 lots showed some capital inflows. However, the rebound was limited, and nearby moving average resistance warrants close attention in the short term. SMM Commentary: According to SMM statistics, as of this Thursday, China's total alumina inventory edged up WoW. By inventory structure, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters continued to destock slightly. However, restocking willingness was weak amid sharp recent price swings and market divergence over the outlook, and end-users mostly stayed on the sidelines. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries declined, mainly because some northern enterprises carried out periodic maintenance, prioritizing the drawdown of in-factory inventory under production constraints. This impact is expected to gradually fade after maintenance ends next week. Port inventory continued to build up, as high port arrivals from outside China supplemented spot supply with imported resources and increased market pressure. Overall, the oversupply pattern remained unchanged. Before the implementation of Guinea's bauxite quota policy, the market lacked clear bullish drivers. Next week, inventory is expected to shift from mild destocking to slight inventory buildup, supply-demand conditions will stay loose, and alumina prices will continue to consolidate on a weak note. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research or decision-making. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use it as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to Shanghai Metals Market.]

In H1 2026, the galvanizing industry generally showed characteristics of "slow recovery in Q1 and underperformance in the peak season in Q2," with the overall operating rate weaker than the same period last year.

[2026 Galvanizing Half-Year Review: Weak Peak-Season Performance, H2 Demand Expected to See Marginal Improvement] In H1 2026, the galvanizing industry as a whole exhibited a pattern of “slow recovery in Q1 and Q2 peak-season underperformance,” with the overall operating rate weaker than the same period last year.

[Pr-Nd prices continued to rise, and terbium and holmium supply tightening drove medium-heavy rare earth to strengthen] Yesterday, scrap market prices continued to rise. Affected by the continuous increase in oxide offer prices, recycling enterprises raised their external procurement quotes accordingly. However, suppliers were rather wait-and-see about selling, and recycling enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, resulting in limited actual transactions.

[Pr-Nd prices steady, terbium price strengthens, driving up medium-heavy rare earth activity] Yesterday, scrap market prices edged up slightly. Influenced by a slight recovery in oxide offers, recycling enterprises’ external purchase quotes rose in tandem, while suppliers’ shipment attitude remained wait-and-see, and overall market trading was moderate.