[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, coke producers maintained relatively good operating rates, and coke supply increased steadily. Downstream rigid demand for coke still existed, coke producers' shipments were relatively smooth, and there was no obvious inventory pressure for the time being. Demand side, steel mills' daily average hot metal output increased, driving up rigid demand for coke. However, futures declined recently, and end-use demand remained weak, weakening market sentiment and reducing steel mills' purchase willingness. In summary, after the coke price hike, market sentiment weakened, and the coke market may remain temporarily stable in the short term.

This week, ferrous metals retreated after a rapid rise. At the beginning of the week, the market said that Asia had shifted to coal-fired power generation due to a natural gas supply deficit, while Indonesia would increase coal production and impose export taxes. The rise in international coal prices was transmitted to China, and coking coal and coke led the gains in ferrous metals; mid-week, the Middle East situation remained volatile, and the U.S. and Iran held differing attitudes toward war, with ferrous metals consolidating at high levels; the pullback in the second half of the week was also mainly due to the weakening of the cost-side logic, as market rumors said long-term iron ore contract negotiations had been completed, expectations for tightening iron ore supply declined, and raw materials turned into the main driver of the pullback. In the spot market, speculative trading and end-user purchase sentiment improved in the first half of the week, while rigid demand remained dominant in the second half, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......

This week, ferrous metals rebounded from the bottom. At the start of the week, coking coal and coke led the futures higher, mainly driven by rising crude oil prices in the overseas market, which pushed the energy and chemicals sector stronger accordingly; mid-week, both the U.S. and Iran signaled a more relaxed stance toward war, easing geopolitical tensions, while coal prices fell in tandem, weakening the cost-side logic, and ferrous metals fluctuated at highs; in the latter half of the week, worsening short-term liquidity issues in BHP's iron ore port inventory triggered stronger iron ore prices in the overseas market, while the Middle East situation remained volatile, reinforcing cost support and pushing ferrous metals higher again. In the spot market, supported by futures, end-user and arbitrage purchase sentiment both improved WoW this week......

[SMM Daily Brief Commentary on Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, most coke producers were in a loss-making position, and some coke producers saw inventory buildup, which continued to suppress their production incentives, with coke oven operating rates edging down. Demand side, steel mills’ coke inventory was at a reasonable level, and they were still mainly purchasing as needed; steel mills showed signs of controlling arrivals. In addition, the impact of steel mills’ voluntary production cuts during the Two Sessions led to a decline in the daily average hot metal output, weakening rigid demand for coke. Overall, coke fundamentals remained unoptimistic, and cost support was expected to weaken; in the short term, the coke market may remain in the doldrums.

[SMM Daily Brief Commentary on Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, during the major meetings, apart from some coke enterprises in regions such as Tangshan, Hebei being passively subject to 20%–30% production restrictions, most enterprises in other regions maintained normal production, and supply was relatively ample. Demand side, due to the Two Sessions, some steel mills proactively implemented production cuts; this week, hot metal continued to decline, and rigid demand for coke continued to weaken. Overall, coke fundamentals were weak, but supported by gains in coke futures, bearish sentiment temporarily dissipated, and the coke market may run steadily in the short term.

This week, ferrous metals held up well within a narrow range. Over the weekend, turmoil in the Middle East and the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict triggered wild swings in the international energy market, sending energy and precious metals sharply higher, while ferrous metals—except coking coal and coke—mostly retreated after rapid rise following the open; mid-week, although there were bullish expectations around the Two Sessions, no new news emerged, the steel market remained relatively stable, and the pattern of raw materials outperforming finished steel products continued; in the latter half of the week, the Two Sessions’ macro conclusions met expectations, but had already been priced in by futures earlier, and high-level fluctuations in international oil prices continued to support raw materials, in turn pushing ferrous metals to edge higher on a steady footing. In the spot market, in the second week after the holiday, the market gradually resumed work and resumed production, but with insufficient momentum from futures, overall willingness to purchase was not high, and transactions were mainly concluded at low prices......

[SMM Daily Brief Commentary on Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, the first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, losses at coke producers have widened, dampening their production incentives. Coke supply is expected to tighten slightly, but coke producers are seeing inventory buildup, and supply remains loose for now. Demand side, the Two Sessions have already convened, and some steel mills have already carried out blast furnace maintenance; the daily average hot metal output has declined, weakening rigid demand for coke. Meanwhile, after the first round of coke price cuts, steel mill profits remain poor, and they still intend to push for lower prices. Overall, the coke market may be generally stable with slight fall and in the doldrums; after the first round of proposed cuts, expectations remain for a second round of price cuts.

On the production side, China's 1# silver output in February 2025 increased 0.81% MoM and 8.17% YoY.

This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. On the first day after the holiday resumption, due to the impact of overseas risk events during the long holiday—primarily the US's plan to impose new tariffs on approximately six industries (including large batteries, cast iron and iron fittings, plastic pipes, industrial chemicals, as well as power grid and telecommunications equipment) and the escalation of US-Iran tensions—overall sentiment fluctuated significantly, and ferrous futures also touched recent lows. Mid-week, with some steel mills in the Tangshan area receiving notifications for voluntary emission reductions during the Two Sessions, coupled with Shanghai's adjustment of housing purchase restrictions and rumors of favorable real estate policies during the Two Sessions, futures rebounded from lows, showing significant sector resonance effects. However, as the weekend approached, no new favorable policies emerged, and futures retreated once again.

Today, iron ore futures first fell then rose, with the most-traded contract I2605 closing at 750.5 yuan/mt, up 0.27% from the previous trading session. Spot prices increased by 2-3 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm in offering prices, while steel mills' purchases were mainly for restocking needs, resulting in an overall moderate spot trading atmosphere. This week, SMM statistics showed that the total iron ore inventory at 35 main ports nationwide reached 155.39 million mt, an increase of 2.46 million mt compared to pre-Chinese New Year levels. Meanwhile, the daily average port pick-up volume was recorded at 2.405 million mt, down 180,000 mt from pre-holiday levels. This indicates that supply-side pressure has not eased and is expected to continue weighing on iron ore prices. Demand side, although steel mills gradually resumed production after the holiday, some regional mills have received voluntary emission reduction notices due to the upcoming macro window period of the "Two Sessions." The strengthening of expectations for environmental protection-driven production restrictions will substantially curb marginal increases in hot metal output. In summary, constrained by unresolved inventory pressure and policy-induced production restrictions, the iron ore market lacks effective upward momentum in the short term, and prices are expected to continue fluctuating rangebound or in the doldrums.