SMM June 13: Metal market: Overnight, base metals broadly rose in both domestic and overseas markets, with only LME nickel edging down 0.03%. SHFE tin led the gains with a 2.19% increase, while LME copper, LME zinc, LME tin, and SHFE zinc all rose over 1%—LME copper up 1.02%, LME zinc up 1.63%, LME tin up 1.75%, and SHFE zinc up 1.48%. The remaining metals saw gains within 1%. In addition, alumina's main contract rose 0.86%, and cast aluminum's main contract rose 0.45%. Overnight, ferrous metals broadly rose except for iron ore, which fell 0.13%, while rebar rose 0.44% and hot-rolled coil rose 0.59%. In the coking coal and coke segment, coking coal rose 0.22% and coke rose 2.73%. Overnight, precious metals rebounded across the board, with COMEX gold up 3.06% and COMEX silver up 6.44%. However, due to significant earlier declines, COMEX gold still recorded a weekly loss of 2.87%, marking its second consecutive weekly decline; COMEX silver fell 1.42% on a weekly basis, marking its fifth straight weekly decline. On the domestic front, SHFE gold rose 2.3%, and SHFE silver rose 5.22%. Among them, SHFE gold fell 6.79% on a weekly basis, also its fifth consecutive weekly decline; SHFE silver tumbled 10.14% on a weekly basis, also recording a five-week losing streak. Bank of China issued a notice stating that, recently, global geopolitics and the US Fed's monetary policy have faced considerable uncertainties. Under the influence of multiple factors, precious metal price fluctuations in and outside China have further intensified. To protect the interests of clients involved in precious metal-related businesses such as gold accumulation, interest-bearing gold accumulation, precious metal accounts, two-way precious metal accounts, and agency services for personal trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, our bank particularly reminds you to guard against market risks, engage in rational investment based on your financial status and risk tolerance, reasonably control precious metal positions, and mitigate the impact of short-term price fluctuations through long-term investment, to prevent the risk of capital losses from market fluctuations. As of 8:31 am on June 13, the overnight closing prices: Macro front Domestic front: [PBOC: Aggregate social financing rose by 17.48 trillion yuan in the first five months; new loans reached 9.11 trillion yuan; M2 money supply increased 8.6% YoY in May] Preliminary PBOC statistics show that the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing in the first five months of 2026 was 17.48 trillion yuan, which was 1.16 trillion yuan less than the same period last year. Of this, RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 9 trillion yuan, 1.38 trillion yuan less YoY; foreign currency loans to the real economy, in yuan terms, increased by 115.3 billion yuan, 211.6 billion yuan more YoY; entrusted loans decreased by 103.1 billion yuan, 91.8 billion yuan more of a decrease YoY; trust loans increased by 5.7 billion yuan, 57 billion yuan less YoY; undiscounted bankers' acceptances decreased by 17.2 billion yuan, 151.4 billion yuan more of a decrease YoY; net corporate bond financing was 1.67 trillion yuan, 757.7 billion yuan more YoY; net government bond financing was 5.67 trillion yuan, 634 billion yuan less YoY; and equity financing by non-financial enterprises on the domestic market was 230.5 billion yuan, 79.9 billion yuan more YoY. Over the first five months, renminbi loans increased by 9.11 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans decreased by 631.4 billion yuan, of which short-term loans fell by 694.2 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 62.8 billion yuan; corporate (institutional) loans increased by 9.63 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans grew by 3.77 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans grew by 4.99 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 699.9 billion yuan; loans to non-banking financial institutions decreased by 279.7 billion yuan. Central bank data shows that at end-May, the broad money (M2) balance stood at 353.67 trillion yuan, up 8.6% YoY. The narrow money (M1) balance was 114.89 trillion yuan, up 5.5% YoY. Currency in circulation (M0) balance was 14.69 trillion yuan, up 11.9% YoY. Over the first five months, net cash injection reached 590.7 billion yuan. According to the central bank's official website, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on June 15, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct 600 billion yuan outright reverse repo operations via fixed quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple-price auction, with a tenor of six months (183 days), maturing on December 15, 2026. As for the US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index gained 0.1% to 99.79, down 0.28% for the week, with markets closely watching the peace talks between the US and Iran. On the 12th, multiple US media reported that a senior US government official said that day that the US has "80% to 85%" confidence in signing a memorandum of understanding with Iran in the coming days. Meanwhile, the US is "confident" that Israel will support this US-Iran MoU. According to reports from CNN, CBS, and others, the official said at a telephone press briefing, "We haven't quite reached the finish line, but we're very close." The official said the specific location and date for the US-Iran MoU signing have yet to be determined, but US President Trump previously suggested signing it in a European country, which could be an option. (Xinhua News Agency) On the 12th, Iranian media reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said that once Iran and the US complete the final stage of negotiations, the MoU will be signed and announced immediately. The first stage will be signed remotely via electronic means, "which could happen in the coming days." (Xinhua News Agency) In a report, HSBC analysts noted that the US dollar exchange rate is currently below the level implied by market expectations for US interest rates. They noted that as market expectations have recently shifted from anticipated rate cuts to possible rate hikes, the dollar's response has been relatively limited. They believe this likely reflects loose US financial conditions and market hopes for a resolution to the Middle East conflict. They said the dollar needs a clear stimulus from monetary policy. If the US Fed fails to support rate hike expectations at next week's meeting, the dollar “could be in trouble”. (Jinshi Data APP) Traders expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, but see a more than 50% chance of a rate hike before year-end. On Thursday, after Trump’s comments on a potential deal, market pricing edged down slightly. Other currencies: Turner Chris, an analyst at ING, said that for EUR/USD trend, the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting may be more important than the ECB’s rate hike decision on Thursday. The ECB has already signaled further rate hikes, and the market is speculating about another hike in July. But he said that since the market has already priced in the ECB’s aggressive tightening cycle and is reluctant to push those expectations higher, the EUR/USD exchange rate has remained below 1.16. Moreover, the market believes the Fed may raise rates later this year. He said that unless the Fed pushes back against these expectations at its meeting on Wednesday, the dollar should stay firm. (Jinshi Data APP) Data: Next week, China will release China's May total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, China's May industrial value-added of enterprises above designated size YoY, China's May share of yuan in global payments via SWIFT, China's May total electricity consumption YoY (TBC), China's May total electricity consumption (TBC), and other data; the US will release the US Fed interest rate decision (upper bound) for the period to June 17, the US June Empire State manufacturing index, US May industrial production MoM, US June NAHB housing market index, ADP employment change for the week ended May 30, US May housing starts annualized total, US May building permits total, US May import price index MoM, US May retail sales MoM, US April business inventories MoM, US May pending home sales index MoM, US initial jobless claims for the week ended June 13, US June Philly Fed manufacturing index, US May Conference Board Leading Economic Index MoM, and other data; the UK will release UK May CPI MoM, UK May retail price index MoM, UK ILO unemployment rate for the three months to April, UK May unemployment rate, UK May jobless claims change, UK Bank of England interest rate decision for the period to June 18, UK June Gfk consumer confidence index, UK May seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM, and other data; the Eurozone will release Eurozone April seasonally adjusted trade balance, Eurozone April industrial production MoM, Eurozone June ZEW economic sentiment index, Eurozone May final CPI YoY, Eurozone May final CPI MoM, Eurozone April seasonally adjusted current account, and other data; Switzerland will release Switzerland May consumer confidence index, Switzerland May trade balance, Switzerland SNB policy rate for the period to June 18, and other data; Japan will release Japan BoJ target rate for the period to June 16, Japan May core CPI YoY, and other data; Canada will release Canada April wholesale sales MoM, Canada April retail sales MoM, and other data; Germany June ZEW economic sentiment index, Germany May PPI MoM, and Australia RBA interest rate decision for the period to June 16 will also be released. In addition, on June 15, China will see 218.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos mature, along with 600 billion yuan of six-month outright reverse repos. The National Energy Administration releases nationwide electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) publishes the monthly report on residential property prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities. The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on national economic performance. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) will hold a seminar to launch the High-Quality Token Service Capability Climbing Plan (TBD). China will also open a new round of fuel price adjustment windows. On June 18, the Fed’s FOMC will release its interest rate decision and summary of economic projections; Fed Chairman Warsh will hold a monetary policy press conference. ECB President Lagarde will deliver a speech. BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida Shinichi will hold a monetary policy press conference, and the BOJ will release its interest rate decision. RBA Governor Bullock will hold a monetary policy press conference. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will release its interest rate decision, and the Bank of England (BOE) will release its interest rate decision and meeting minutes. The Group of Seven (G7) Summit opens and will run until June 17. Crude oil: Overnight, oil prices on both markets fell, with WTI down 3.9% and Brent down 3.96%. Expectations for a US-Iran peace agreement continued to heat up, putting oil prices under pressure and pulling them back. On a weekly basis, oil prices also fell, with WTI down 6.9% and Brent down 6.76%. In early US stock trading, according to CCTV, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that the Islamabad memorandum of understanding was "closer than ever" to being reached, causing oil prices to tumble and US stock indices to extend their intraday gains. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei stated that the two sides had now reached an understanding on most issues, and that Iran was internally finalizing the text of the memorandum of understanding. During the US midday, CCTV reported that Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said "the final agreed text of the peace agreement has been completed," and that the two countries were moving forward with implementing the next steps. Oil prices continued their decline. During US trading, stocks briefly dipped after Trump criticized Iran for leaking the terms of the deal, before Wall Street Insights noted that the UAE had reportedly agreed to unlock large-scale funds for Iran, with an initial tranche of roughly $3 billion already transferred, further boosting optimism about reaching an agreement. (Wall Street Insights) US Secretary of Energy Wright stated that about 7 million barrels of oil and fuel currently transit the Strait of Hormuz daily, roughly half the amount of cargo stranded at the onset of the Iran conflict. Wright said that currently no Iranian crude oil can be shipped out through the Strait of Hormuz. He added that if an agreement is reached, he expects all products to be able to pass freely through the Persian Gulf. Wright also noted that if no agreement is reached, the US military will resume transport along the route. Wright stated that the US will not impose an oil export ban to curb oil prices. (Jinshi Data APP) US Energy Secretary Wright said on Friday local time that US refiners can still absorb more Venezuelan crude oil. Wright stated that Venezuela currently sends about half of its total exports of 1.2 million barrels per day to the US, and that proportion could rise in the coming months. Wright also said that Iran is not currently exporting any oil or refined products. During the Middle East conflict, the US has actively filled the gap in oil exports. (Jinshi Data APP) Due to the most severe supply disruption on record caused by the Iran conflict, US emergency reserve crude oil exports have surged to an all-time high. Customs data compiled by Kpler Ltd. show that nearly 22 million barrels of crude oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) have been sold to markets outside China so far this year. This volume has already exceeded the previous high set four years ago. Although US emergency reserve crude oil exports are not uncommon, the large scale of this year's shipments shows that with the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz causing supply disruptions, global markets are increasingly relying on US supplies to tide them over. About one in every three barrels of crude oil flowing out of the emergency stockpile is exported. The volume heading overseas could be even higher, as the Trump administration is still releasing the full 172 million barrels of crude oil it committed to. This is part of a broader effort by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to help cushion the impact of the Iran war on global energy markets. (Wall Street CN)

By 2026, China's new energy vehicle market has evolved from an early-stage race over electric motors, batteries, and electronic controls into a systemic contest centered on battery technology roadmaps, supply chain depth, and cost-control capabilities. Leading domestic players — NIO, Li Auto, XPeng, BYD, and Leapmotor — have each charted a distinctly different path in their battery strategies. What lies beneath these divergent choices is not merely a matter of technical preference, but a reflection of fundamentally different business models, brand identities, and competitive philosophies. NIO: Anchored by Battery Swapping, Building a Multi-Supplier, Multi-Chemistry Matrix NIO's battery strategy stands apart within the industry. At its core is not the choice of a single supplier or chemistry, but rather a battery-swapping network serving as infrastructure, upwardly compatible with battery packs of varying capacities, chemistries, and suppliers. Currently, NIO's lineup runs primarily on 75 kWh and 100 kWh packs, while a higher-energy-density 150 kWh semi-solid-state pack, produced by WeLion New Energy, has already entered volume production and deployment. On the chemistry front, certain NIO models employ a hybrid cell arrangement blending ternary lithium and LFP cells — the LFP cells provide foundational range and cost advantages, while the ternary cells serve as a state-of-charge reference, addressing the well-known pain point of inaccurate SOC estimation inherent to LFP's flat voltage curve. On the supplier side, CATL has long held a core position, with CALB and WeLion also playing significant roles in the supply chain. In early 2026, NIO and CATL further signed a five-year comprehensive strategic cooperation agreement covering long-life batteries, swap-station compatibility, and overseas market expansion. For the full year 2025, NIO Group delivered 326,000 vehicles, up 46.9% year-on-year, and achieved its first quarterly operating profit in Q4 — signaling that its battery-swapping business model is beginning to enter a virtuous cycle. The ramp-up of its two sub-brands, ONVO and Firefly, has further amplified the scale effects of the swapping ecosystem, diluting the per-unit cost of infrastructure. Li Auto: EREV-Led, BEV in Pursuit — Deep Supplier Ties and the Shift Toward In-House Development Li Auto's battery strategy presents a sharp contrast to NIO's. Where NIO pursues breadth in its swapping network and flexibility in battery pack compatibility, Li Auto places greater emphasis on deep ties with top-tier suppliers and meticulous cost-side management. Li Auto's EREV models have long relied on ternary lithium batteries as their primary solution and are now progressively introducing LFP to optimize vehicle cost structures. In the pure-electric domain, the flagship MPV MEGA carries a high-performance ternary pack co-developed with CATL; in 2025, the i6 electric SUV formally adopted a dual-supplier model, sourcing from both CATL and Sunwoda for complementary supply. More significantly, in September 2025, Li Auto and Sunwoda jointly established a battery company, marking a definitive shift from a procurement relationship to one of equity-linked co-development. In May 2026, Li Auto delivered 33,350 vehicles, with the i6 surpassing 20,000 monthly deliveries for the third consecutive month and ranking among the top three electric SUVs by volume, while the EREV L-series remained its sales backbone. With "family comfort" as its core brand proposition, Li Auto's battery strategy has always served a single through-line: eliminating range anxiety while optimizing total cost of ownership — pragmatic and focused. XPeng: LFP as the Mainstay, a Three-Supplier Landscape Taking Shape, and the Dual-Powertrain Strategy Accelerating XPeng's battery strategy is centered on LFP, with a stable landscape of three core suppliers: CALB, EVE Energy, and FinDreams Battery (BYD). CALB has been one of XPeng's first-tier battery suppliers since 2021 and has long held the dominant share. In September 2025, EVE Energy formally entered XPeng's MONA series supply chain, providing prismatic cell solutions for base MONA variants, while longer-range versions continue to use BYD FinDreams cells. XPeng's technology identity has always revolved around full-stack self-developed AI — spanning advanced intelligent driving, proprietary chips, and large-model integration — which gives its battery strategy a notably pragmatic character: choose a mature, safe, and cost-controllable LFP route so that more resources can be concentrated on its core competence in intelligence. Since 2025, XPeng has fully embraced a dual-powertrain strategy of BEV plus EREV, with the addition of range-extender models introducing new variables to its battery demand structure. In May 2026, XPeng Group delivered 32,158 vehicles, with the flagship SUV GX becoming a core incremental contributor right from its debut, while the MONA series and P7+ continued to scale, validating the market appeal of its "technology for all" positioning. BYD: Full Vertical Integration as the Ultimate Moat If NIO, Li Auto, and XPeng respectively embody the brand paths of "service-driven battery swapping," "family comfort," and "technology intelligence," then BYD's defining label points squarely at vertical integration. From FinDreams battery cells and FinDreams Powertrain motors and electronic controls, to in-house IGBT and SiC power semiconductors, BYD has mastered the manufacturing of virtually every core component in a new energy vehicle — a level of supply chain depth unmatched both domestically and globally. The Blade Battery, BYD's signature technology, builds on an LFP foundation and achieves a balance of safety and energy density through structural innovation; it has now achieved scaled deployment across the entire lineup. On the cost side, the scale effects of selling 4.6 million units in 2025 have endowed BYD with extreme supply chain bargaining power. On the technology side, the "Eye of the Gods" advanced driver-assistance system has been deployed in over 2.5 million vehicles, generating more than 160 million kilometers of real-world driving data daily — a data flywheel that competitors will find difficult to replicate. In 2025, BYD's battery-electric vehicle sales reached 2.26 million units, surpassing Tesla (approximately 1.63 million) for the first time to claim the global BEV sales crown. From the Seagull at RMB 70,000 to the Yangwang at over RMB 1 million, from city commuters to hardcore off-roaders, BYD has built the world's most complete new energy product matrix, with its multi-brand strategy covering every mainstream price band and use case. Leapmotor: Full-Stack Self-Development Driving Extreme Value, Multi-Supplier Strategy Fueling the Volume Leap Leapmotor has emerged as a dark horse that can no longer be ignored among China's new-energy startups. Its battery strategy is defined by a clear formula: all-LFP plus parallel multi-sourcing, with core cell suppliers including Gotion High-Tech and CALB, among others — different batches of the same model may mix cells from different brands, but core parameters remain consistent. In November 2025, Leapmotor and CALB jointly established a battery factory, signaling Leapmotor's progression from multi-source procurement toward equity-linked core-supplier relationships. Leapmotor's true moat lies in its full-stack self-development approach — over 65% of core components are developed in-house, spanning electric drives, battery BMS, intelligent cockpits, and autonomous-driving chips. This is what enables Leapmotor to deliver extreme value in the RMB 100,000–200,000 mainstream price band. In May 2026, Leapmotor delivered 81,569 vehicles, up 81% year-on-year, holding the new-energy startup sales crown for multiple consecutive months, with the one-million-unit annual target now within reach. Leapmotor's product matrix has expanded into four series — A, B, C, and D — covering sedans, SUVs, and MPVs, while overseas exports have rapidly climbed to over 37% of total volume, becoming a second engine for growth. The Industrial Logic Behind Divergent Strategies When the battery strategies of these five automakers are examined side by side, several clear industrial patterns emerge. First, LFP's dominance in the mainstream market continues to strengthen. Whether it is BYD's Blade Battery, XPeng's all-LFP lineup, Leapmotor's extreme value proposition, or Li Auto's progressive LFP adoption in its EREV models, all point to the same trend: in the RMB 100,000–250,000 core consumption band, LFP's combined advantages in cost, safety, and cycle life have made it an unshakable baseline. Second, supply chain relationships are upgrading from simple buyer-seller transactions to capital-linked co-development. The joint ventures between Li Auto and Sunwoda, between Leapmotor and CALB, and the five-year agreement between NIO and CATL are all reflections of this trend. Third, battery strategy choices are increasingly dictated by each automaker's business model: NIO's battery-swapping system demands pack standardization and compatibility; BYD's vertical integration demands in-house production; Li Auto's EREV approach imposes unique requirements on battery capacity and cost. For participants in the upstream lithium resource and battery materials industries, understanding the battery strategies of leading automakers — and the direction in which they are evolving — is a critical entry point for gauging mid- and downstream demand structures, the cadence of technology-route shifts, and the changing landscape of supply chain dynamics. In this industrial contest that remains very much at halftime, the divergence in battery strategies not only determines each automaker's cost structure and product competitiveness, but will also profoundly reshape the value distribution across the entire lithium battery supply chain.

1. Thailand & South Korea Markets: Prices climb steadily, bolstered by upbeat expectations for long-term contract premiums CIF quotations and transaction prices of aluminum ingots in Thailand and South Korea moved higher overall this week. The backwardation of LME spot aluminum against the three-month contract narrowed notably. Market optimism over higher Q3 QMJP long-term contract prices continued to build. Sellers lifted spot quotes amid rising costs, pushing transaction prices up accordingly during the week. End-product manufacturers in Southeast Asia and South Korea have extensively adopted Chinese exported aluminum products as raw material substitutes, curbing import demand for primary aluminum ingots. Most downstream players only conduct sporadic restocking based on immediate needs, with little willingness for large-scale inventory buildup. The market has therefore seen a trend of strong prices amid sluggish trading activity . 2. Japan Market: Tight spot supply drives sharp premium hikes; buyers become more price-tolerant Japan’s MJP spot premiums kept climbing this week, mainly driven by acute domestic spot shortages. The Middle East, Japan’s major source of imported aluminum ingots, has delivered lower shipments year-on-year due to geopolitical tensions, shipping disruptions and constrained delivery schedules. No other producing regions can make up the supply gap on a meaningful scale, keeping domestic tradable spot inventories at persistently low levels. Faced with tight supply, Japanese end-users have softened their price stance and grown more receptive to spot cargoes with steep premiums. Meanwhile, bullish expectations for Q3 long-term contract premiums have spilled over to the spot market. The combined factors have pushed Japan’s spot premiums to sharply elevated levels.

On June 9, a fire broke out at Chemical Grade Plant 3, or CGP3, at the Greenbushes lithium operation. The fire was quickly extinguished, no injuries were reported, and CGP1 and CGP2 continued to operate as normal. The following day, IGO confirmed that its FY2026 spodumene concentrate production guidance of 1.375–1.425 million tonnes remained unchanged. Chemical Grade Plant 4, or CGP4, is scheduled to commence construction in 2027. Viewed in isolation, this was a well-contained operational incident. However, the location of the fire deserves closer attention. CGP3 is not part of Greenbushes’ existing production base. It represents incremental supply currently ramping up at the far-left end of the global lithium cost curve. The project involved approximately A$880 million of investment and is designed to add around 500,000 tonnes per year of spodumene concentrate capacity. First ore was fed into the plant in December 2025, and the facility had originally been expected to reach nameplate capacity around mid-2026. The damage assessment is still under way. Neither the repair cost nor the recovery timeline has been quantified. The fact that production guidance remains unchanged should therefore be understood as an initial assessment rather than a definitive conclusion. The key question is not whether IGO has immediately revised its annual guidance. It is whether the CGP3 ramp-up schedule will be delayed. Should the market be concerned when an incremental production line at the world’s lowest-cost lithium mine experiences an operational disruption? To answer this question, it is useful to examine the role of Australian lithium mines in the broader lithium pricing mechanism. Note on the CGP3 ramp-up timeline: At IGO’s FY2026 second-quarter results briefing in late January 2026, management stated that CGP3 had received first ore in December 2025 and would require approximately five months to ramp up to nameplate capacity. Some English-language transcripts recorded management as referring to completion “by the end of the calendar year.” However, based on the timing of first ore feed, a five-month ramp-up period would imply completion around mid-2026, before the end of Australia’s FY2026 financial year. This is also consistent with the company’s previous guidance. The transcript may therefore have intended to say “by the end of the financial year.” This article adopts the mid-2026 ramp-up assumption. The timing is relevant because the June 9 fire occurred only weeks before the originally expected completion of the ramp-up. The actual impact should become clearer in IGO’s fourth-quarter report, which is expected in late July. Greenbushes: A Reference Point at the Bottom of the Cost Curve Greenbushes’ most important advantage begins with ore grade. It is one of the world’s largest and highest-grade hard-rock lithium mines currently in production. Its ore grade is approximately twice the industry average. For a spodumene operation, grade directly affects processing efficiency. To produce one tonne of SC6 concentrate, Greenbushes needs to process materially less ore than a typical mine. This provides a structural advantage across mining, beneficiation, energy consumption and tailings management. Greenbushes also benefits from scale. The operation currently has several processing facilities, with combined nominal ore-processing capacity of around 6.5 million tonnes per year and spodumene concentrate capacity of up to approximately 1.5 million tonnes per year. Once CGP3 completes its ramp-up, the mine will add a further 500,000 tonnes per year of concentrate capacity. With the mine life extended to 2045, Greenbushes combines low costs with long-term supply capacity. This explains the mine’s resilience during the lithium price downturn. During 2024 and 2025, lithium prices declined sharply. A number of higher-cost Australian mines and Chinese lepidolite projects faced production cuts or temporary shutdowns. Greenbushes, however, continued to maintain relatively strong profitability and moved ahead with the CGP3 expansion. Greenbushes does not represent the industry’s average cost. It represents the most competitive end of the global hard-rock lithium cost curve. For that reason, Greenbushes is better understood as a reference point for the bottom of the cycle. As lithium prices fall, higher-cost supply exits first, while low-cost assets remain in operation. The closer prices move toward the cost range of Greenbushes, the fewer marginal producers remain capable of operating normally, and the more advanced the supply-side clearing process becomes. This does not mean that lithium prices can never fall below the cost level of Greenbushes. In the short term, inventory pressure, liquidity conditions and market sentiment can push prices below the cost levels implied by the marginal supply curve. Greenbushes is not an absolute price floor. Its significance is that it provides a structural reference point for assessing how far supply-side clearing has progressed. Greenbushes: The Largest Producer, but with Limited Freely Traded Supply Although Greenbushes produces large volumes of spodumene concentrate, relatively little of that material enters the open spot market directly. The mine is operated by Talison Lithium. Talison is owned by Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia, or TLEA, and Albemarle. TLEA is in turn jointly owned by Tianqi Lithium and IGO. Greenbushes concentrate is primarily distributed through shareholder offtake arrangements and supplied into the downstream conversion systems of Tianqi, Albemarle and their respective partners. Under normal conditions, the material is not sold directly into the open market. Greenbushes therefore provides a useful example of why lithium supply should be analysed through several different layers: Resources → Design capacity → Actual production → Saleable volume → Freely traded spot volume Greenbushes ranks among the world’s largest producers by actual output. However, because most of its concentrate is locked into shareholder offtake arrangements, the amount available for open-market trading remains relatively limited. This means Greenbushes affects lithium pricing mainly through indirect channels. First, it determines the size of the lowest-cost portion of global lithium supply and therefore plays an important role in shaping the lithium chemical cost curve. Second, its operating costs, offtake pricing mechanism and expansion schedule provide reference points for long-term contract negotiations and price assessments in the spodumene market. By contrast, short-term spot prices are often more directly influenced by marginal resources that are not fully locked into shareholder arrangements and must actively seek buyers in the market. These include certain Australian mines, African lithium resources and trader-held cargoes. This explains an apparent paradox. An additional 500,000 tonnes of Greenbushes concentrate capacity can materially change the medium-term supply-demand balance, yet its immediate impact on the spot market may be limited. Meanwhile, the shutdown or restart of a marginal mine producing only 100,000–200,000 tonnes per year can quickly influence spot quotations and market sentiment if its output is sold on a market basis. Short-term pricing is not determined solely by total production. It is also shaped by the volume of material that is freely available for negotiation and immediate transaction. The same logic applies to lithium carbonate. Price elasticity depends not only on total inventory but also on how much inventory is genuinely available for circulation. The largest producer does not necessarily exert the most direct influence over the spot market. Short-term marginal pricing is usually driven by the resources that are tradeable, negotiable and available for immediate delivery. However, shareholder offtake does not mean that Greenbushes material is completely isolated from the market. If lithium conversion plants within the Tianqi or Albemarle systems reduce operating rates, or if downstream conversion assets experience operational issues, part of the concentrate originally intended for internal consumption may re-enter the market indirectly through tolling, resale or inventory adjustments. These volumes are rarely captured in public statistics, but they can affect the actual liquidity of the spodumene market. Tracking this material requires a broader set of indicators, including shareholder conversion-plant operating rates, concentrate inventories, tolling arrangements and import flows. This type of “shadow spot supply” is harder to observe than nominal mine production, yet it can become relevant at specific points in the cycle. SC6 and Lithium Chemicals: The Direction of Price Transmission Reversed Within a Year The relationship between Australian spodumene concentrate prices and Chinese lithium chemical prices has completed a full cycle over the past year. During the first half of 2025, spodumene prices followed lithium chemical prices downward. Australian miners reduced costs materially in the first quarter but largely avoided production cuts. Mining companies remained willing to ship material, and the price of SC6 concentrate fell to around US$620 per tonne. Falling concentrate prices then placed additional pressure on lithium chemical prices, reinforcing the downward cycle. At the time, the key market question was straightforward: When would the mining sector finally reduce supply? The direction of transmission reversed in the end of third quarter. The announcement that 27 mining licences in Yichun could be cancelled, together with the suspension of the Jianxiawo mine, tightened expectations around domestic Chinese lithium supply. Lithium chemical prices moved first. SC6 prices then followed, with greater elasticity. By December, the monthly average price had recovered to around US$1,300 per tonne. Formula-based pricing mechanisms linked to lithium chemical prices allowed mining companies to capture a large share of the upside, while Chinese converters saw their processing margins squeezed. At the same time, the impairment and expansion adjustments at the Kwinana lithium hydroxide project highlighted the challenges facing Australian downstream conversion. The project has faced difficulties in cost control, production ramp-up and operational stability. TLEA’s Kwinana lithium hydroxide refinery was fully impaired in mid-2025, the second train was suspended, and IGO made clear that it would prioritize mining. These developments reinforce Australia’s role as a supplier of spodumene concentrate rather than a major lithium chemical conversion hub. As a result, the relationship between SC6 prices and Chinese lithium chemical prices is likely to remain strong. However, the speed and magnitude of transmission will continue to depend on inventories, contract formulas, shipping cycles and converter operating rates. One of the most useful indicators is the implied conversion margin between SC6 concentrate and lithium chemical spot prices. When the implied conversion margin turns negative, Chinese converters purchasing third-party concentrate are effectively losing cash on incremental production. The market then needs to rebalance through at least one of three channels: Spodumene concentrate prices decline; Lithium chemical prices rise; Converters reduce operating rates. This indicator provides a useful way to judge whether bargaining power currently sits with the mining segment or the conversion segment. Australian Mine Restarts: Lithium Prices Develop an Upper Constraint The key theme for Australian lithium mines during 2024 and 2025 was supply-side clearing. In 2026, the theme has shifted toward reactivation. As lithium prices recovered during the first half of the year and futures briefly exceeded RMB 200,000 per tonne, a series of restart decisions emerged across May and June. Project Action Timing Key Point Bald Hill, Mineral Resources Restart after approximately 18 months of suspension Restart announced in May; first concentrate expected in July Restart cost of around A$20 million Ngungaju, PLS Processing plant restart Planned for July Approximately 200,000 tonnes per year of restored output Finniss, Core Lithium Final investment decision approved; financing secured Targeting first ore in the third quarter Financing package of approximately US$205 million Kathleen Valley, Liontown Expansion under assessment Ongoing Further details pending Mt Cattlin, Rio Tinto Remains suspended Suspended since March 2025 Restart conditions remain unclear Taken together, these cases show that the true threshold for mine restart is more complex than a simple comparison between lithium prices and cash costs. Bald Hill moved from restart announcement to expected first concentrate production in around two months. The mine had remained in a production-ready care-and-maintenance state, and Mineral Resources has its own mining-services platform, allowing it to mobilize mining, crushing and haulage internally without relying heavily on external contractors. This type of asset represents the fastest-reacting segment of supply when prices recover. Finniss is a different case. The project first monetized inventories through Glencore to improve liquidity, then assembled a financing package involving convertible debt, additional borrowings and equity issuance before reaching a final investment decision. For miners with weaker balance sheets, a restart is not simply an operational decision. It is a financing event. A low-price cycle does not eliminate the resource base. It eliminates the ability to finance production. The market impact of the restart wave is already visible. Lithium carbonate futures reached a two-year high of RMB 200,500 per tonne on May 13 before retreating to around RMB 160,000–170,000 per tonne in June. One reason for the pullback is that the market has begun to price in the return of idle supply. The mechanism is straightforward: Prices rise → Idle capacity restarts → Expected supply increases → Prices come under pressure The list of suspended Australian mines, once ranked by restart economics and response time, effectively becomes an upside supply curve for lithium prices. The CGP3 fire and the restart wave represent two sides of the same market. At the low-cost end of the curve, incremental Greenbushes supply has experienced an operational disruption, creating a bullish signal. At the higher-cost end, idle assets are returning to production, creating a bearish signal. From a resource perspective, lithium prices in 2026 are searching for equilibrium between these two forces. Lithium Prices in 2026 May Become More Volatile, but One-Way Trends Could Be Shorter Once prices rise, the factor that ultimately limits the upside is the speed at which idle capacity returns to the market. Bald Hill, Finniss and Ngungaju represent a broader pool of suspended or standby assets that can respond when lithium prices move sufficiently above their cash-cost thresholds and remain there for long enough. However, restart supply is not instantaneous. From the moment a restart is announced, companies need to remobilize personnel, inspect equipment, resume mining and processing, build concentrate inventories and arrange shipments. Depending on the asset, concentrate may enter the market within two months or only after several quarters. This delay creates a window during which supply disruptions can push prices higher. The suspension of the Jianxiawo mine and the CGP3 fire at Greenbushes matter not because global lithium resources have suddenly become scarce, but because short-term freely available supply has tightened while idle capacity has not yet fully returned. Compared with the previous cycle, this risk-premium window appears to be shortening. An increasing number of mines are being placed on care and maintenance rather than permanently closed. Mining-services companies, traders and downstream customers are also becoming more involved in restart financing and offtake arrangements. Once prices move back above the relevant breakeven levels, some idle assets can return more quickly. This does not necessarily mean lithium prices will become more stable. Supply disruptions can still trigger rapid price increases. However, the duration and magnitude of one-way rallies are likely to face stronger constraints from restart expectations. Prices may become more volatile in the short term, but sustained unilateral trends could become shorter. Conclusion Australian lithium mines influence lithium prices through several distinct channels. Greenbushes provides a structural reference point at the bottom of the hard-rock lithium cost curve. However, because most of its output is absorbed through shareholder offtake arrangements, it does not directly determine short-term spot pricing. Spot-market tightness is more directly influenced by marginal saleable supply: Australian mines, African resources and trader-held inventories that are available for negotiation and immediate transaction. Once lithium prices rise, the speed at which suspended assets restart becomes the key constraint on the duration of the rally. The framework can therefore be summarized in three lines: Low-cost mines provide a structural reference point for the bottom of the cycle. Freely traded supply determines short-term spot-market tightness. The speed of mine restarts determines how long an upside cycle can last. The CGP3 fire and the restart wave sit at opposite ends of this framework. One represents a disruption to low-cost incremental supply. The other represents the return of higher-cost idle capacity. Lithium prices in 2026 will continue to seek equilibrium between these two forces. Lesley Yang Senior New Energy Analyst, SMM yangle@smm.cn

On June 9, a fire broke out at Greenbushes Chemical-Grade Beneficiation Plant 3 (CGP3). The fire was quickly extinguished with no casualties, CGP1 and CGP2 continued normal operations, and IGO confirmed the next day that its FY2026 concentrate guidance of 1.375 million to 1.425 million mt remained unchanged. CGP4 is planned to commence in 2027. Judging solely by the announcement, this was a well-handled operational incident. However, the location of the fire warrants closer attention: CGP3 is not existing capacity but incremental capacity being ramped up at the far left of the global cost curve – with a total investment of about AUD 880 million, designed to add approximately 500,000 mt/year of concentrate capacity, and which only achieved first feed in December 2025 and was originally expected to reach full production by mid-this year. The damage assessment is still ongoing, repair costs and timetable are yet to be quantified, and the so-called "guidance maintained" is based only on information from the initial stage of the incident. What merits tracking going forward is not the guidance itself, but whether the timing of reaching full production will be delayed. At the world's lowest-cost mine, a new production line has had a minor incident – should the market be concerned? Today, I aim to break down and clarify this mechanism by analyzing the role of Australian ore in the lithium price formation. Note: Clarification on the timeline for CGP3 reaching full production. At its FY26 Q2 results briefing in late January 2026, IGO stated that CGP3 achieved first feed in December 2025 and that ramp-up to nominal capacity would take approximately five months. Some English transcripts recorded management's remarks as "completing ramp-up before the end of the calendar year" (end of the calendar year). However, based on the timing of first feed, five months corresponds to mid-2026, i.e., before the end of the Australian financial year (FY26), which is consistent with the company's previously disclosed guidance of "reaching full production in mid-2026." The transcript likely mistook "end of the financial year" for "end of the calendar year." This article adopts the "mid-2026 full production" timeline. This timing implies that the June 9 CGP3 fire occurred a few weeks before the originally scheduled full production, and the actual impact will be confirmed in IGO's Q4 report (expected in late July). Greenbushes: A Benchmark at the Bottom of the Cost Curve Greenbushes' most fundamental advantage lies first in its ore grade. It is one of the world's largest and highest-grade hard-rock lithium mines in production, with raw ore grade roughly double the industry average. For spodumene mines, grade directly determines mining and processing efficiency. To produce one tonne of SC6 concentrates, Greenbushes needs to process significantly less raw ore than typical mines, giving it natural cost advantages in mining, beneficiation, energy consumption, and tailings management. Building on its high-grade ore, Greenbushes also benefits from economies of scale. The mine site now hosts multiple beneficiation plants with a combined nominal processing capacity of approximately 6.5 million mt/year, supporting a maximum lithium concentrate capacity of up to 1.5 million mt; once CGP3 has fully ramped up, it will add roughly 500,000 mt of additional concentrate capacity. With the mine life further extended to 2045, Greenbushes not only possesses low-cost advantages but also strong long-term supply capability. This is why Greenbushes has demonstrated significant resilience during the lithium price downturn. From 2024 to 2025, as lithium prices continued to pull back, many high-cost Australian mines and Chinese lepidolite projects faced pressure to suspend or cut production, yet Greenbushes maintained relatively sound profitability and continued to advance the CGP3 expansion. It represents not the industry's average cost, but the most competitive end of the global hard-rock lithium ore cost curve. Therefore, Greenbushes serves as a useful benchmark for observing the industry bottom. When lithium prices fall, high-cost capacity exits first, while low-cost capacity continues to produce. The closer prices move to Greenbushes' cost range, the fewer marginal units of capacity can sustain normal operations in the market, and the nearer supply exits are to completion. Greenbushes Has the Largest Production, but Limited Free-Float Volume Although Greenbushes has a very large production scale, relatively little of its concentrates can enter the spot market directly. Greenbushes is operated by Talison Lithium, whose shareholders include TLEA and Albemarle, with TLEA jointly held by Tianqi Lithium and IGO. The spodumene concentrates produced at the mine are primarily allocated under shareholder offtake arrangements, flowing to lithium chemical production lines within the shareholder systems of Tianqi, Albemarle, and others, and are not normally offered for direct sale to the market. Viewed through the framework of [Resources – Designed Capacity – Actual Production – Saleable Volume – Available Spot Volume], Greenbushes is a very typical case. Its actual production ranks among the world's largest, but since most of its concentrates are locked up within its shareholder system, the volume truly available for market-based transactions is relatively limited. This also means Greenbushes' influence on market prices is mostly indirect. On one hand, it defines the scale of global low-cost lithium resource supply, which has an important impact on the lithium chemical cost curve; on the other, its operating costs, offtake pricing, and expansion pace also serve as key references for long-term lithium ore contract negotiations and price assessments. By contrast, what really influences spot lithium ore prices in the short term are typically the marginal resources not fully locked up by shareholder offtake agreements and needing to find buyers on the market. These include some Australian mines, African lithium ore, and saleable cargo held by traders. Therefore, while the addition of approximately 500,000 mt of concentrate capacity at Greenbushes will alter medium and long-term supply-demand expectations, its short-term impact on the spot market may not be particularly pronounced. In contrast, the suspension or resumption of a marginal mine with an annual output of over 100,000 mt that primarily sells on the open market could rapidly influence spot quotes and market sentiment. It is well known that short-term prices are not entirely determined by total output; rather, they depend more on the volume of material freely available for trading in the market. For example, lithium carbonate's price elasticity hinges more on the current available volume in the market. The mine with the largest output does not necessarily hold the most direct pricing power in the spot market; what truly dictates short-term marginal prices are typically resources that are available, negotiable, and require immediate transaction. However, shareholder offtake does not mean such concentrates are completely isolated from the market. When smelters within the frameworks of shareholders like Tianqi and Albemarle reduce their operating rates, or when some smelting lines operate erratically, concentrates originally intended for internal consumption may indirectly enter the market through toll processing, resales, or inventory adjustments. These cargoes are usually not publicly tallied but affect the actual circulating volume in the lithium ore market. Their tracking requires assessment by combining shareholder smelter operating rates, concentrate inventory, toll processing arrangements, and import flows. In analyzing Australian ore supply, such shadow spot cargoes are often harder to observe than a mine's nominal production, yet can significantly influence the market during specific phases. SC6 and Lithium Chemicals: Transmission Direction Reversed Once Within a Year The price transmission relationship between Australian ore concentrates (SC6, CIF China) and China's lithium chemicals has completed a full round trip over the past year. In H1 2025, ore prices followed the downtrend. In Q1, Australian mines aggressively cut costs but did not reduce production, showing a strong willingness to sell. SC6 fell all the way to around $620/mt, and the lower concentrate prices, in turn, pressured lithium chemicals downward, forming a spiral. The market's concern at the time was: When would mines finally be willing to cut? The situation reversed starting at the end of Q3. The announcement of Yichun's plan to cancel 27 mining rights, along with the suspension at Jianxiawo, tightened expectations for domestic resource supply. Lithium chemical prices moved first, and SC6 followed with an uptrend that proved even more elastic—by December, the average price had already returned to around $1,300/mt. Formula pricing, linked to lithium chemical prices, allowed the mining side to capture the bulk of the upside gains, while the tolling margins of Chinese smelters were instead compressed. Meanwhile, the impairment and expansion adjustments at the Kwinana project reflect that lithium chemical conversion in Australia continues to face high hurdles in terms of cost control, production ramp-up, and operational stability. TLEA's Kwinana lithium hydroxide plant was fully impaired in mid-2025, with the second-phase construction halted, and IGO has clearly shifted its priority to mining. The role of Australian ore in the industry chain has been refixed as a supplier of concentrates, and the linkage between SC6 and Chinese lithium chemical prices will only tighten going forward, not decouple. The implied smelting margin—calculated by multiplying SC6 by the processing coefficient and comparing it to spot lithium chemical prices—has turned negative, meaning Chinese smelters using externally purchased ore are losing cash. Either ore prices must pull back or lithium chemical prices must rise; one of the two is inevitable. This indicator is the most powerful gauge of whether mines or lithium chemicals hold more pricing power. Australian Mine Production Resumptions: Price Breaks Through the Ceiling The key words for Australian ore in 2024-2025 were market exits, while in 2026 they have become revivals. Lithium prices have been climbing steadily since the beginning of the year, with futures prices once surpassing 200,000 yuan/mt, triggering a series of production resumptions in May and June: Project Action Timing Notes Bald Hill (MinRes) Resumed production after an 18-month shutdown Announced in May, first concentrates expected in Jul Restart cost approximately A$20 million Ngungaju Plant (PLS) Restart Planned for Jul Resuming roughly 200,000 mt/year Finniss (Core Lithium) FID approved, financing secured Targeting first ore in Q3 Financing approximately $205 million Kathleen Valley (Liontown) Evaluating expansion In progress — Mt Cattlin (Rio Tinto) Remains shut down From Mar 2025 to present Restart conditions not yet clarified Looking at these cases together, the real threshold for resuming production is more complex than simply having prices exceed cash costs. Bald Hill took only about two months from announcement to first ore because it had maintained a production-ready state throughout the shutdown, and MinRes's own mining services division could internally mobilize all operations—mining, crushing, and transport—without needing to wait for external contractors. Assets of this type are the quickest-responding supply when prices rise. Finniss, by contrast, was an entirely different situation: it first sold inventory to Glencore in exchange for liquidity, then cobbled together three financing instruments—convertible bonds, debt, and a share placement—before reaching FID. For mines with fragile balance sheets, resuming production is not an operational decision but a financing event; what low-price cycles destroy is not resources, but financing capacity. The market consequences of the resumption wave are already visible. Lithium carbonate hit a two-year high of 200,500 yuan/mt on May 13, then pulled back to the 160,000–170,000 yuan range in June, partly because the market saw resumption supply coming back. The logic is straightforward: when prices rise, idle capacity resumes production, supply expectations increase, and prices pull back. That list of idle capacity in Australia, when sorted, essentially forms the supply curve above lithium prices. The CGP3 fire and this wave of production resumptions are actually two sides of the same market: disruption to the incremental supply at the far left of the cost curve is bullish, while idle capacity at the right end accelerating its return is bearish. Looking at lithium prices this year from the resource perspective, equilibrium is being sought between these two forces. Lithium prices in 2026 are expected to fluctuate more frequently, but one-sided market moves will be shorter. After prices rise, what truly caps the height of the rally is the speed at which idle capacity re-enters the market. Projects under care and maintenance or on standby, such as Bald Hill, Finniss, and Ngungaju, essentially constitute elastic supply above lithium prices. When lithium prices return above the cash costs of these projects and stay there long enough, mines have the incentive to resume production. But production resumptions do not happen instantly. From the announcement of a restart to the rehiring of personnel, equipment maintenance, resumption of mining and processing, inventory buildup, and finally, the entry of concentrates into the market, it typically takes from two months to several quarters. This time lag is the window during which supply disruptions can drive prices higher. The suspension at Jianxiawo and the CGP3 fire at Greenbushes were able to affect market sentiment not because of a sudden global shortage of lithium resources, but because of a reduction in short-term available supply while idle capacity had yet to return. Compared to the previous cycle, it is worth noting that the window for risk premiums arising from resource-side disruptions is shortening. A growing number of mines are opting for care and maintenance rather than permanent closure; mining service companies, traders, and downstream enterprises are also participating in restart financing and offtake arrangements. As long as prices return above the break-even line, some idle capacity can resume more quickly. This means that in the future, lithium prices may still rise rapidly following supply disruptions, but the duration and height of one-sided market moves will be more easily constrained by production resumption expectations. Prices may not necessarily become more stable, but supply feedback could be faster. SMM New Energy Analyst Yang Le

SMM June 12 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals nearly all rose. SHFE copper rose 1.51%, SHFE tin rose 2.97%. SHFE nickel rose 0.94%. SHFE aluminum rose 1.06%. SHFE zinc rose 0.43%. SHFE lead fell 0.31%. In addition, casting aluminum linked futures rose 0.45%, alumina most-traded linked futures rose 1.45%. Lithium carbonate most-traded linked futures rose 3.85%. Silicon metal most-traded linked futures rose 0.63%. Polysilicon linked futures rose 5.91%. Ferrous metals all rose, iron ore rose 0.13%, rebar rose 0.66%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.74%, stainless steel rose 2.15%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal most-traded contract rose 3.02%, coke most-traded contract rose 5.63%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:38 AM, LME metals all rose. LME copper rose 1.01%, LME aluminum rose 0.54%, LME lead edged up. LME zinc rose 0.26%, LME tin rose 0.25%, LME nickel rose 0.67%. Precious metals: as of 11:38 AM, COMEX gold rose 2.63%, COMEX silver rose 5.36%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold most-traded linked futures rose 1.89%, SHFE silver most-traded linked futures rose 4.36%. Furthermore, as of the midday close, platinum most-traded linked futures rose 3.99%, palladium most-traded linked futures rose 5.69%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe container shipping futures contract fell 1.16% to 3,929.5 points. As of 11:38 AM on June 12, some futures midday quotes: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper reported at 270 yuan/mt up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, standard-quality copper reported at a premium of 210 yuan/mt up 30 yuan/mt, SX-EW copper reported at a premium of 150 yuan/mt up 30 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 104,715 yuan/mt up 1,090 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,625 yuan/mt up 1,075 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventory has declined for 9 consecutive days and has now hit a new low for the year... Macro front China: [PBOC's open market operations net injected 178 billion yuan on the day, and net injected 885.8 billion yuan this week] PBOC conducted 393 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with 215 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net injection of 178 billion yuan on the day. This week, PBOC conducted 1,112 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations, with 226.2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing, realizing a net injection of 885.8 billion yuan this week. (Jinshi Data APP) [Guangzhou: Fully Advance the Implementation of Major Projects Such as Intelligent Connected Vehicles and NEVs, Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors and Integrated Circuits, and Low-Altitude Economy] The “Guangzhou Commerce Development 15th Five-Year Plan (Draft for Public Comments)” was released for public consultation. It highlighted the need to fully advance the implementation of major projects including intelligent connected vehicles and NEVs, ultra-high-definition video and new-type displays, green petrochemicals and new materials, intelligent equipment and robotics, artificial intelligence, semiconductors and integrated circuits, and low-altitude economy, and cultivate a group of leading intermediate product enterprises that are high-tech, manufacturing single champions, and specialized and sophisticated. Promote the accelerated development of intermediate product trade in foreign trade transformation and upgrading bases, and cultivate a number of well-known brands and “chain leader” enterprises. Support enterprises in using technologies such as the industrial internet, big data, and artificial intelligence for digital transformation, improving production efficiency and product quality, and driving the intermediate product trade to leap toward high-end and digital-intelligent development. (Jinshi Data APP) On the US dollar front: As of 11:38, the US dollar index rose 0.06% to 99.75. According to CME “FedWatch”: The probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through June is 98.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate cut is 1.5%. The probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through July is 91.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 7.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate cut is 1.4%. Market expectations for a US Fed rate hike have been pushed back from December this year to January next year, and the possibility of a rate hike this year is no longer fully priced in. (Jinshi Data APP) Amid sustained inflationary pressure driven by the Iran war, US producer prices in May rose at the fastest pace in more than three years. Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the US PPI rose 6.5% YoY in May, the largest increase since November 2022, and rose 1.1% MoM. The core PPI, excluding food and energy, rose 4.9% YoY. The report highlighted the growing damage to the US economy from the energy price shock caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As the conflict is unlikely to be resolved in the short term, businesses are passing on higher energy and transportation costs, and other goods and services are also becoming more expensive. Combined with data earlier this week showing that consumer prices in May rose at the fastest pace in three years, Thursday's PPI report may further strengthen market expectations for a US Fed rate hike in 2026. As the labour market appears to be regaining growth momentum, the US Fed is shifting its focus to curbing inflation. On the data front: Today will see the release of Germany May CPI MoM Final, UK April Three-Month GDP MoM, UK April Manufacturing Production MoM, UK April Seasonally Adjusted Goods Trade Balance, UK April Industrial Production MoM, France May CPI MoM Final, US June 1-Year Inflation Expectations Prelim, and US June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Prelim. In addition, watch for: the Huawei Developer Conference on June 12-14; Elon Musk’s commercial space company SpaceX plans to list on the Nasdaq on June 12, 2026. Crude oil: As of 11:38, oil prices in both benchmarks fell, with WTI crude down 1.12% and Brent crude down 1.15%. The US and Iran may reach a preliminary agreement on a memorandum of understanding, causing oil prices to pull back slightly. According to CCTV, on June 11 local time, US President Trump posted on the social media platform “Truth Social” that, given that consultations with Iran had been submitted to the highest leadership of Iran and approved, he had canceled the strike and bombing operation originally planned for that night against Iran. According to the latest OPEC data, Iran’s crude oil production fell 19% last month, as the US blocked the country’s ports amid the ongoing conflict. Data from the monthly report released on Thursday showed that Iran’s daily output dropped by 546,000 barrels to 2.33 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, OPEC’s latest monthly report showed that the organization on Thursday lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 970,000 barrels per day, marking its second consecutive downward revision. Since the outbreak of the Iran war, the producer group has believed that the conflict’s impact on consumption has been consistently smaller than that estimated by other forecasters such as the US Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency, both of which expect demand to decline in 2026. In addition, the report noted that the oil producer group raised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2027. (Jinshi Data APP) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Semiconductor Counter-Trend Rebound and Overseas Geopolitical Reversal Drag Down SHFE Tin Contract Center]

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,424/mt, swung wildly in early trading and touched a low of $13,398/mt, then the price center fluctuated upward, and near the close it rose to a high of $13,612.5/mt before finally closing at $13,575/mt, up 0.94%. Trading volume reached 21,100 lots, and open interest stood at 265,000 lots, a decrease of 2,125 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reduced positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 103,280 yuan/mt, dipped to 103,010 yuan/mt right at the open, then fluctuated upward and touched a high of 103,850 yuan/mt near the close, finally settling at 103,540 yuan/mt, up 0.13%. Trading volume reached 30,100 lots, and open interest amounted to 152,400 lots, a decrease of 8 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reduced positions.

According to overseas media reports, London-listed Pensana announced that construction of the Longonjo rare earth mine in Angola is progressing as planned, with a total investment of $250 million, targeting first commissioning and production of mixed rare earth carbonate (MREC) in 2027. The mine has a life of 20 years, with initial annual production of 20,000 mt of mixed rare earth carbonate, expanding to 40,000 mt in the fourth year. $36 million has been invested in the development of the mine and beneficiation plant, and main construction works are 22% complete. Manufacturing of long-lead equipment is progressing well, with committed procurement capital expenditure of approximately $135 million. The company is optimizing the heavy rare earth recovery circuit, targeting over 122 mt per year of dysprosium and terbium, positioning Longonjo as one of the largest heavy rare earth producers in the Western world. The modular separation facility can be expanded with mine expansion and includes a metallization circuit. Pensana has signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with Toyota Tsusho for the offtake of up to 20,000 mt per year of mixed rare earth carbonate from Longonjo for a five-year term. The company has established a multi-partner offtake framework covering Japan's Toyota Tsusho, US-based ReElement Technologies, and US/Germany-based VAC/eVAC Magnetics. The project has received a $165 million strategic investment from Cascade Natural Resources and debt financing from ABSA, with political and commercial risk insurance provided by the US Export-Import Bank.

The Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) released its latest Global Semiconductor Equipment Market Statistics Report on June 11. Data showed that in Q1 2026, global semiconductor equipment sales reached $36.55 billion, up 1% QoQ and 14% YoY, hitting a record high for a single quarter. Region-wise, South Korea surpassed Taiwan, China, to rank second globally. SEMI stated that the semiconductor equipment market in Q1 of this year continued to benefit from the investment wave in artificial intelligence, with global semiconductor enterprises increasing their capacity expansion and technological upgrades. These investments were mainly directed at advanced logic processes, dynamic random-access memory (DRAM), and advanced packaging, continuously boosting the equipment market size higher.