Philippine Nickel Ore Market: Ample Inventories at Chinese and Indonesian Smelters, Tug-of-War between Sellers and Buyers Driving Nickel Ore Prices Under Pressure Philippine nickel ore prices declined this week. Price-wise, Philippine nickel ore CIF China quotes: Ni 1.3% grade at $53-56/wmt, Ni 1.4% grade at $61-64/wmt, Ni 1.5% grade at $68-71/wmt. In addition, the 1.3% grade CIF average price from the Philippines to Indonesia was quoted at $48-50/wmt, and the 1.4% grade CIF average price at $56-58/wmt. Recently, Philippine nickel ore prices have generally faced downward pressure. In terms of supply, as the rainy season ended in major producing areas, shipments of Philippine nickel ore increased significantly. Most mines resumed normal shipping, effectively easing the previously tight supply situation. Meanwhile, demand side, large smelters from China and Indonesia were leveraging ample inventories and favorable supply availability in the market to push for lower prices. As buyers on both sides only accepted lower prices, miners had to compromise. In terms of export flows, nickel ore shipments to Indonesia were relatively low this week, indicating a slow procurement pace in the Indonesian market. Given the still-weak recovery in nickel ore shipments to Indonesia, bearish market sentiment is expected to drag nickel ore prices further down. Inventory side, as of May 8 (Friday), nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports stood at 4.55 million mt, up 150,000 mt WoW, with total port inventory equivalent to approximately 35,700 mt Ni in metal content. Demand side, China's NPI prices continued to rise overall this week, while spot transaction prices edged down to 1,146 yuan/nickel unit. The high-grade NPI market overall hovered at highs this week, with significant divergence between sellers and buyers. The price center shifted slightly lower amid the tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand, and overall market sentiment remained subdued. Smelters' continued push for lower prices on the raw material side caused the nickel ore CIF price center to shift further downward. As a result, Philippine ore FOB price support was extremely lacking. Considering destocking and maintaining trade turnover, miners are expected to make concessions in subsequent quotes. Currently, bearish sentiment dominates the market, and there remains room for further downside in prices in the short term. Prices are expected to maintain a downward trend in May. Indonesian Nickel Ore Market: Indonesian Nickel Benchmark Price Breaks Through $18,000, Extreme Weather and Policy Dynamics Intensify Price Divergence Indonesian nickel ore market prices fluctuated overall this week. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) officially released the nickel mineral benchmark price (HMA) for the second half of May 2026. The HMA for the first half of May was: nickel at $18,849.3/mt (up $1,047.15 from the first period of May 2026 at $17,802.14, a 5.88% increase); cobalt at $55,854/mt; iron ore at $1.58/mt; chrome ore at $6.37/mt. Currently, the CIF price of 1.6%-grade saprolite ore reached $77.8–80.8/wmt, up $3.3 from last week. The price of 1.2%-grade limonite ore was approximately $28.33/wmt, flat from last week. 2. Supply-Demand Fundamentals and Weather Impact Saprolite ore: Production from major mines is expected to edge up in May. Although Indonesia has largely entered the dry season, abnormally heavy rainfall hit the central and southern Sulawesi region mid-week. As a result, land transportation and barge transshipment plans at some small and medium-sized mines were forced to halt. Despite RKAB approval progress reaching 90%, spot supply of high-grade saprolite ore remains tight; nevertheless, market expectations for easing supply have strengthened notably compared to earlier periods. Notably, the average grade of ore accepted by smelters has begun to trend downward. Although the decline is not yet significant, some smelters have started blending low-grade ore into their raw materials to alleviate the pressure from high-grade ore shortages and surging costs. Pricing side, smelters currently primarily adopt fixed pricing or a "HPM + $7–10 premium" model. Additionally, some smelters have begun implementing uniform saprolite ore benchmark specifications (cobalt 0.05%, iron 20%, chromium 1%), regardless of differences in actual ore output from individual mines. Furthermore, composition bonuses in the market have been reduced to minimal levels, as most bonuses are already incorporated into the fixed premium. Overall, as HMA has already breached the $18,000/mt threshold and the nickel ore royalty has risen to 15%, downside room for Indonesian nickel ore prices is limited in the short term. Limonite ore: Limonite ore prices declined and did not follow the increase in the new HPM. Affected by a potential sulphuric acid supply deficit in May that could lead to MHP production cuts, limonite ore demand was under pressure. Against a backdrop of relatively stable inventory, smelters continued to push for lower prices aggressively. 3. SMM Internal Estimates: The new formula led to ore price divergence and amplified fluctuations (particularly affected by the relatively high associated cobalt content in certain ores). SMM estimates showed that the new HPM for 1.2%-grade limonite ore was approximately $49.95, already significantly higher than actual market assessed prices; the new HPM for 1.6%-grade saprolite ore was $70.83, and under the new pricing formula, price fluctuations were notably amplified due to the higher cobalt content in certain ores. Although current actual market transaction prices remain above this benchmark, the gap between the two is steadily narrowing. 4. Regulatory Quota (RKAB) and Market Outlook: Indonesia's ESDM indicated that the 2026 RKAB approval progress has reached approximately 90%. According to SMM statistics, the cumulative approved RKAB quota for Indonesian nickel ore totalled approximately 230–240 million wmt. The market widely expects the final quota to be officially finalised by month-end of April. Affected by the combined impact of expectations of RKAB quota reductions, resource uncertainty, and the shortage of high-grade ore, some smelters have already begun raising trade premiums and surcharges to secure supply sources. The market has recently been closely watching the announcement by Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Bahlil Lahadalia on Monday (May 11, 2026) that the government will postpone its plan to impose export duties (bea keluar) on nickel downstream products in order to formulate a reasonable pricing formula that is a "win-win" for both the country and enterprises. Although this tariff is intended to drive the transformation of the nickel industry, which currently achieves only 40% deep processing, toward higher value-added products (such as moving beyond merely producing NPI), the government decided to temporarily "shelve" the proposal after hearing industry opinions.

SMM May 15: This week (May 11-15), the Pr-Nd alloy market overall fluctuated downward. At the beginning of the week (May 11-12), influenced by news related to Trump's visit to China and China-US economic and trade consultations, Pr-Nd oxide futures recovered somewhat, driving bullish sentiment in the spot market and gradually tightening low-priced supply. However, downstream magnetic material enterprises' inquiry and purchase activities remained insufficiently active, with high-priced transactions difficult to conclude. Pr-Nd alloy prices overall held steady, with quotes maintained around 920,000-930,000 yuan/mt, and wait-and-see sentiment was strong in the market. Entering mid-week (May 13), market sentiment took a sharp turn downward. Affected by the significant decline in Pr-Nd oxide futures prices, some traders lost confidence in the market outlook and proactively lowered their selling quotes. The sharp decline in raw material prices, combined with persistently sluggish downstream inquiries, pushed Pr-Nd alloy spot quotes down to 895,000-910,000 yuan/mt, with the lowest quotes from metal enterprises in north China reaching 895,000 yuan/mt. Downstream magnetic material enterprises, influenced by the mentality to rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn, showed weakened purchase willingness, mostly pushing for lower prices in their inquiries, and market transactions were dismal. Approaching the weekend (May 14-15), the market diverged. On Thursday, Pr-Nd oxide futures prices recovered somewhat, and combined with increased downstream inquiry and purchase activities, some metal enterprises successively concluded transactions, and Pr-Nd alloy prices stopped falling and stabilized. However, on Friday, inquiries and purchases in the metal market turned cold again, Pr-Nd alloy prices were in the doldrums, and afternoon prices fell to 895,000-905,000 yuan/mt. Looking at the full week, Pr-Nd alloy prices overall trended downward, declining from 920,000-930,000 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to 895,000-905,000 yuan/mt. On the supply side, the tight balance in supply and demand fundamentals of spot Pr-Nd oxide did not undergo fundamental changes, and factories had relatively weak willingness to sell at low prices. However, some traders, disturbed by futures prices, proactively lowered their selling prices, causing Pr-Nd alloy to lack raw material cost support. On the demand side, performance was weak, with downstream magnetic material enterprises maintaining strong wait-and-see sentiment and only releasing small restocking demand when prices hit bottom. Looking ahead, although downstream new orders remained poor, with most enterprises focused on digesting existing orders, some small and medium-sized enterprises' raw material inventory was approaching low levels, highlighting rigid restocking demand. If favorable news emerges from China-US economic and trade consultations, Pr-Nd alloy prices are expected to stop falling and recover; otherwise, they may maintain a sideways movement in the short term.

[SMM Nickel Flash] The average price of SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI fell 4.5 yuan/nickel unit WoW to 1,146 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the average Indonesian NPI FOB index price rose 0.97 $/nickel unit WoW to 147.75 $/nickel unit. This week, the high-grade NPI market overall maintained a pattern of fluctuating at highs, with significant divergence between sellers and buyers. Prices edged lower in center amid the tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand, and overall market sentiment remained subdued.

[SMM Nickel Flash] May 15 — The SMM high-grade NPI market sentiment index stood at 2.82, down 0.03 MoM. The high-grade NPI upstream sentiment index was 3.34, down 0.03 MoM. The high-grade NPI downstream sentiment index was 2.3, down 0.03 MoM. The high-grade NPI market sentiment remained largely flat today, continuing a high-level standoff. The price range fluctuated slightly with the center staying stable, and supply-demand price divergence remained relatively pronounced.

SMM has been deeply engaged in the metal industry for decades, consistently upholding the principles of objectivity, neutrality, pragmatism, and rigor. By adhering to actual market transactions as the core pricing benchmark and leveraging its well-established price assessment methodology and comprehensive data system, SMM continues to deliver standardized market benchmarks for participants across the industry chain. This provides solid support for industry pricing standards, transaction settlements, and business decision-making, serving as a long-term partner in the steady development of the metal industry.

SMM May 15 update: Cobalt product prices remained generally stable this week, with only refined cobalt and cobalt chloride prices edging down slightly, though overall fluctuations were relatively small. Among them, cobalt chloride market activity declined further, with scarce inquiries becoming a common feedback... SMM compiled the spot price fluctuations of cobalt products this week, as follows: : According to SMM spot quotes, spot refined cobalt prices edged down 500 yuan/mt this week before stabilizing temporarily. As of May 15, spot refined cobalt was quoted at 421,500-428,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of 425,000 yuan/mt, down 0.12% from 425,500 yuan/mt on May 8. Fundamentals side, supply side, according to SMM, smelter quotes remained stable, while traders lowered the spot-futures price spread of mainstream brands to a premium of 7,000-8,000 yuan/mt to recoup funds. Demand side, downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises continued purchasing as needed, strictly controlling raw material inventory levels. Price spread structure side, the metal price spread between refined cobalt and lower-priced cobalt salts continued to stay at a relatively low level, limiting enterprises' enthusiasm for producing refined cobalt through the re-dissolution process. In the short term, SMM expects refined cobalt prices to continue consolidating, with future upside still dependent on effective price boosts from cobalt salts. Cobalt salts ( and): : According to SMM spot quotes, spot cobalt sulphate prices continued to hold stable this week. As of May 15, spot cobalt sulphate remained steady at 93,200-95,800 yuan/mt, with an average price of 94,500 yuan/mt. According to SMM, on the cobalt sulphate supply side this week, mainstream brand quote centers remained in the 93,000-96,000 yuan/mt range. Boosted by the rebound in refined cobalt prices, some smelters and traders that had previously offered discounts to facilitate shipments raised their quotes slightly, and low-priced cargoes below 90,000 yuan/mt decreased significantly. Demand side, downstream enterprises still focused on digesting earlier inventory, with low enthusiasm for purchasing, and only a few with rigid demand restocked small volumes at lower prices. Notably, some Co3O4 enterprises increased their inquiry frequency recently, with purchasing sentiment showing signs of recovery. Production schedule side, both ternary and LCO enterprises saw restorative MoM growth in May production schedules. It is expected that as downstream restocking demand gradually releases going forward, cobalt sulphate prices are likely to see a phased rebound and recovery. : According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt chloride spot prices edged down by 100 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week and then stabilized. As of May 15, cobalt chloride spot prices stood at 114,000–117,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 115,500 yuan/mt, down 0.09% from May 8. Spot market: According to SMM, cobalt chloride market activity further declined this week, with scarce inquiries being a common feedback. Supply side, some top-tier players notably slowed down their shipment pace recently, with liquidity pressure emerging and quotes slightly softening; meanwhile, small and medium-sized producers had already proactively lowered prices earlier due to capital recovery and shipment pressure, and their current quotes have gradually stabilized with extremely limited room for further reduction. Demand side, downstream Co3O4 enterprises, constrained by their own significant shipment pressure, showed weak willingness to purchase cobalt chloride; in contrast, cathode material and battery cell segments, due to continued inventory depletion, recently began to release some restocking intentions. Overall, the market still lacked directional breakthrough momentum. Although sporadic low-price transactions occurred, they were unlikely to substantially impact overall pricing, constrained by enterprises' performance targets, capital conditions, and shipment volumes. Currently, downward momentum is insufficient, and raw material costs provide relatively strong bottom support. Cobalt chloride market is expected to remain largely stable in the near term, with substantive changes potentially awaiting late May . : According to SMM spot quotes, Co3O4 spot prices continued to hold stable this week. As of May 15, Co3O4 spot prices remained steady at 360,000–367,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 363,500 yuan/mt. Spot market: According to SMM, the Co3O4 market continued its previously sluggish pattern this week. Top-tier players slightly lowered their quotes, but cost support for Co3O4 remained effective, underpinned by periodically tight supply of cobalt intermediate products and firm cobalt chloride prices. Downstream LCO material enterprises continued to purchase as needed, restocking in small quantities mainly based on orders on hand, with market inquiry activity maintained at a moderate level. Looking ahead, end-use demand performance remains the key variable determining cathode material purchasing intensity. Given that market expectations for May are generally optimistic, attention should be paid to whether demand recovery can break the prolonged stable pattern and bring about periodic fluctuations. As for raw material cobalt intermediate products: According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) spot prices held stable at 25.8–26.2 $/lb this week, temporarily unchanged from May 8. According to SMM, on the supply side, most suppliers held an optimistic outlook for the market, with offers continuing to hold firm above $26/lb. The demand side saw little change; as cobalt salt prices lacked upward momentum, the market maintained only small-volume purchasing as needed, with bid prices fluctuating around approximately $25.8/lb. Regarding shipments, DRC-origin cargoes remained stranded at South African ports and in overland transit. Only a few miners completed small-batch vessel bookings in April, with arrivals expected to begin in June; however, due to tight shipping capacity in Africa, the remaining large-volume cargoes may be delayed until July for concentrated arrivals. Looking ahead, as downstream orders gradually become clearer and restocking demand is progressively released, cobalt intermediate product prices still have room for upward recovery. On the news front, on May 13, Hanrui Cobalt released its investor relations activity record. When asked about the company's cobalt powder business, Hanrui Cobalt stated that the company is a major global cobalt powder supplier, ranking among the top three in global market share. It is currently steadily increasing the product share in high-end cemented carbide and battery sectors, with client recognition continuing to strengthen. Cobalt salt gross margins have been continuously improving, and as the market recovers, capacity is released, and the product mix upgrades, profitability is expected to gradually recover. Regarding the outlook for cobalt price trends in 2026, Hanrui Cobalt stated that cobalt price trends are influenced by multiple factors. From a supply and demand perspective, with the implementation of the cobalt export quota system in the DRC, the world's largest cobalt-producing country, cobalt supply has contracted significantly, and overall supply and demand are currently in a tight balance. In addition, on May 12, SMM Vice President Shirley Wang attended the Cobalt Institute annual conference held in Madrid, Spain, and delivered a keynote speech in the opening session on the current status and outlook of China's cobalt market. Regarding cobalt price trends, she stated that although theoretical calculations suggest that in Q2 to Q3 2026, the concentrated arrival of previously backlogged cobalt intermediate products will cause the cobalt raw material supply-demand balance to temporarily reverse into an inventory buildup state, putting downward pressure on cobalt prices, the limited volume of available cobalt intermediate products in the market—constrained by inventory levels and market sales pace—will provide strong support for cobalt prices. Prices are expected to edge up after several months, but with a clear upward ceiling. She also noted that raw material inventory levels, other raw material supply (such as MHP and refined cobalt), and the shipment pace of cobalt intermediate products are the biggest uncertainty factors affecting price trends.

SMM May 15 News: In May 2026, the global molybdenum market remained in a persistently tight supply-demand pattern, with prices extending and accelerating the upward trend seen in April. International molybdenum oxide prices kept surging at high levels, while domestic molybdenum concentrate and ferromolybdenum prices repeatedly hit new stage highs.

SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI average price fell 4.5 yuan/nickel unit WoW to 1,146 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the Indonesian NPI FOB index average price rose 0.97 $/nickel unit WoW to 147.75 $/nickel unit. This week, the high-grade NPI market overall hovered at highs, with significant divergence between sellers and buyers. The price center shifted slightly lower amid the tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand, and overall market sentiment was subdued.

Recently, China’s domestic rhenium market has seen a mild price correction, with prices of raw materials and metal products weakening in tandem. In contrast, overseas rhenium prices have moved higher against the domestic trend, highlighting a clear divergence between domestic and overseas markets. At present, the industrial chain remains in an obvious price game. Upstream sellers hold a cautious shipping attitude and mainly conclude small-volume rigid-demand deals, while downstream buyers stay on the sidelines with a strong willingness to press prices and test the bottom. Overall market trading activity is sluggish, and rhenium prices are expected to move in a range-bound consolidation in the short term. Differing from the downward trend in the domestic market, the overseas rhenium market has maintained a steady upward momentum with continuous gains in overseas quotations. Currently, the overseas price of ammonium rhenate has climbed to around USD 5,300, and the overseas price of rhenium pellets has risen synchronously to USD 375 per troy ounce. Supported by relatively resilient overseas demand and tight supply circulation overseas, rhenium product prices have kept advancing. A stark contrast has formed between domestic and overseas market trends, and the price spread pattern has also changed accordingly. From the perspective of industrial chain fundamentals, the price game atmosphere in the rhenium market remains intense, presenting a two-sided pattern of cautious holding by sellers and price bottom-hunting by buyers. Domestic copper and molybdenum producers are generally prudent in shipments, holding positive expectations for future prices and reluctant to release large volumes of goods at blindly low prices. Most players adopt a strategy of small-batch and demand-based partial shipments, with overall supply release remaining restrained. Downstream metal processors and end-user enterprises hold a low-price procurement mentality. Amid the market correction, their wait-and-see sentiment has intensified, and they are unwilling to build large inventories. Buyers continue to test sellers’ room for price concessions, and purchase-on-demand has become the mainstream market pattern. Overall, the domestic rhenium market lacks major positive catalysts at this stage, leaving raw material and product prices room for weak range-bound volatility in the short term. High overseas market prices offer limited support to domestic prices. The upstream-downstream price game is unlikely to ease in the near term. Without the concentrated release of new rigid demand and price support from the raw material end, domestic rhenium prices are projected to maintain a weak range-bound trend. Market transactions will continue to be dominated by small rigid-demand orders. It is necessary to keep track of the transaction rhythm between upstream and downstream players, changes in raw material inventories, and the transmission impact of overseas price movements on the domestic market. Looking at the domestic raw material market, the price center of rhenium raw materials has moved down recently. Major domestic copper-molybdenum smelters offer rhenium products mainly at CNY 26,000–27,000 per kilogram, with most market transactions settled within this range. Meanwhile, market supply structure has become differentiated. Some small and medium-sized producers adopt low-price shipments to capital 回收，with actual transaction prices falling to CNY 24,000–25,000 per kilogram. The circulation of low-price supplies has dragged down spot market prices and further deepened the correction of raw material prices. The metallic rhenium market adjusted in line with raw material trends. Rhenium pellet prices edged down alongside raw materials, with mainstream current transaction prices standing at around CNY 46,000 per kilogram. On the whole, the metal end shows a strong correlation with raw material price movements. In the absence of major positive drivers, downstream consumption is confined to industrial rigid demand, which is insufficient to drive a steady rebound in product prices. Market quotations adjust flexibly following spot trading sentiment.

SMM, May 15: During the morning session, the SHFE aluminum 2606 contract fluctuated downward, with the overall price center moving significantly lower compared to the previous trading day. Today, market purchasing sentiment remained weak. Affected by the sharp decline in aluminum prices, some sellers showed strong sentiment to hold prices firm. Mainstream spot cargo quotations in the market ranged from SMMA00 minus 10 yuan/mt to minus 20 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 3, unchanged MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.83, up 0.03 MoM. Today, aluminum futures prices pulled back significantly from the previous day's morning session. Combined with the fact that it was Friday, downstream processing enterprises in the central China market saw a recovery in stockpiling sentiment, and the overall trading atmosphere improved. However, suppliers' shipment sentiment edged down compared to the previous day. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged between parity and a discount of 10 yuan to the central China price. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.83, unchanged MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.26, unchanged MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas fell 0.35 MoM today, with destocking originating from Guangdong and Wuxi.