From June 3 to June 5, Indonesia Critical Minerals 2026 was held at the Pullman Jakarta Central Park in Jakarta, Indonesia. The conference was organized by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) and co-organized by the Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI) , the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia , the National Economic Council of Indonesia , and MMR , in a strategic partnership with the Jakarta Futures Exchange . The conference featured six dedicated forums: the main forum, the nickel and cobalt forum, the tin forum, the coal & energy transition forum, the aluminum forum, and dedicated sub-forums, attracting 3,500+ attendees from 45 countries and regions worldwide, featuring more than 120+ speakers sharing insights on market prices, supply-demand patterns, industry policies, low-carbon development, and ESG development, etc. Additionally, SMM has also meticulously arranged two rounds of panel discussions: Senior Executives' Roadmaps to Overcome Resource, Cost, Technology & ESG Challenges The "Green Premium" Myth vs. Reality: Who Will Pay for Decarbonization in the Critical Minerals Supply Chain? Conference Background In recent years, global nickel and cobalt raw material supply has frequently encountered various disruptions: Indonesia significantly lowered its nickel ore mining quota to 260–270 million mt, tightening nickel resource release at the source; the DRC continuously reduced cobalt ore export quotas, leading to a marked contraction in tradable cobalt raw materials worldwide. Multiple supply variables continued to roil nickel and cobalt commodity futures. Meanwhile, Indonesia is not only the core hub of the global nickel industry chain but also a key production area for global new cobalt supply at this stage. Its industrial control policies, commissioning pace of capacity, and industry chain layout changes directly shape the evolution of the global nickel-cobalt supply-demand pattern. Currently, the global nickel and cobalt industry is at a critical development stage featuring supply-demand restructuring, policy innovation, and value reassessment. To accurately forecast the nickel and cobalt market trends in 2026, deeply analyze the latest industrial control details in Indonesia, and help upstream and downstream players across the industry chain break down collaboration barriers, the Nickel and Cobalt Forum was launched. The forum brought together global mines, smelters, trading firms, downstream end-users, and investment and financing institutions to conduct in-depth discussions on key topics such as market supply and demand trends, policies and regulations, production technology iteration, and cross-border industrial cooperation, jointly exploring new growth drivers for high-quality industry development. Click to view the conference photo gallery June 4: Keynote Speeches Keynote Speech: Mining Regulatory Outlook: RKAB Quota Planning and Indonesia's Next-Phase Downstream Mineral Expansion Path Guest Speaker: Totoh Abdul Fatah, Secretary General of the Directorate General of Mineral and Coal, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Totoh Abdul Fatah noted that RKAB is the key policy instrument for Indonesia to regulate mineral output, coordinate the orderly rollout of industries, and align with the nation's downstream industrialization priorities. Indonesia is endowed with exceptional mineral and coal resources, with significant reserves and capacity in several key strategic commodities including nickel, cobalt, copper, tin, bauxite, gold and silver, and iron ore. Leveraging these unique resource advantages, Indonesia holds a critical strategic position in the global mineral supply chain, and its value is especially prominent in the energy transition wave, providing strong support for the development of power batteries, renewable energy equipment, and high-end manufacturing. The next phase of downstream mineral development is not about curbing growth, but about improving development quality, clarifying development direction, strengthening regulatory management, and reinforcing the sustainability of growth. Future smelter layout must match ore supply capability, be aligned with resource conservation, and coordinate multiple factors including energy infrastructure readiness, environmental protection access standards, and domestic industry value addition. In light of these considerations, the Indonesian government is promoting an industrial logic shift from pure capacity expansion to strategic optimization of resource allocation, ensuring that mineral resources are precisely directed to industry segments that can maximize national economic benefits. Indonesia's downstream mineral industrialization has made concrete progress. Currently, 14 smelters are in operation, primarily producing products such as nickel oxide, pig iron, and copper cathode. Covering both existing operating plants and new projects under construction, the entire industry chain has attracted a total realized investment of $7.849 billion. Breakdown: nickel sector investment of $2.535 billion, aluminum sector $2.181 billion, iron ore projects $47 million, and copper sector $3.084 billion. This is continuously improving the supporting system of the domestic mineral industry chain. This progress demonstrates that Indonesia's downstream mineral policy has achieved tangible results. However, challenges remain for the industry: not only must new smelting projects be completed and commissioned on schedule, but they also require stable supporting supply to achieve efficient operations, green and low-carbon production, and deep integration into the domestic industry chain value system. Indonesia's development direction is very clear: the downstream transformation of minerals will continue to advance, and during the implementation process, policy enforcement constraints and top-level strategic guidance will be further strengthened. The RKAB management system and ore source allocation control rules are key to building a robust and more resilient industrial ecosystem. Future smelting project planning needs to coordinate four key dimensions: sustainable resource development, supply-demand market equilibrium, ESG compliance implementation, and enhancement of national value added. Indonesia has always been open to quality investment, especially high-quality investment, relying on foreign capital to achieve technology transfer and localization, expand local employment, and support long-term economic growth. In other words, Indonesia's industrial development not only pursues growth, but is committed to achieving high-quality growth that is compliant, sustainable, and globally competitive. Keynote Speech: Nickel at a Crossroads：A Five-Year Outlook on Global Nickel — Navigating Policy, Supply, and Demand Shifts Speaker: Thomas Feng, Head of Industry Research, Shanghai Metals Market Feng projects that the global primary nickel market will show a supply deficit in 2026, continue the oversupply trend in 2027, and shift to a tight balance in 2029. Regarding refined nickel prices, on the cost side, global sulfur supply and demand will face a persistent deficit in the next 2–3 years. In the case of short-term strait blockades, sulfur prices remain high, strengthening the cost support for the sulfur-MHP-refined nickel chain. From a macro perspective, the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has triggered wild swings in energy prices, pushing up inflation expectations. In the short term, global commodity prices will face considerable fluctuations. In the long term, global geopolitical uncertainty may become the new normal in the future, increasing the volatility of refined nickel prices. Nickel Ore Upstream Repricing: Indonesia's Benchmark Price Raise, Quota Tightening, and Increased Dependence on the Philippines Indonesia Nickel Ore RKAB Quotas: Tight Balance Emerges as the 2026 Main Theme According to SMM analysis, following the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources' (ESDM) official denial of market rumors that RKAB production quotas would be raised across the board by 25%–30%, the government will handle supplementary quotas under strict case-by-case reviews starting from H2 2026, evaluating each miner's compliance, capacity, and resource reserves. At its core, this constitutes a routine and orderly optimisation of the existing 260–270 million wmt quota cap, paving the way for a more stable and sustainable market environment. Supply RKAB Approval Progress: As of April, Indonesia's cumulative approved RKAB quotas stand at 240 million wmt. SMM expects that, under expectations of continued nickel ore supply tightening, supplementary quotas around mid-year 2026 will be approximately 15%. Philippine Import Driver: SMM expects that this year, Indonesia's nickel ore imports from the Philippines will rise from approximately 15 million in 2025 to 22 million. Tightness in the domestic trade nickel ore supply will accelerate supplementation through imports from the Philippines. Demand Affected by the tight sulfur supply, MHP output has fallen short of earlier expectations. As a result, Indonesia's nickel ore demand for full-year 2026 is expected to be reduced to 303 million wmt. In 2026, actual nickel ore production will remain constrained by factors such as the rainy season and the pace of RKAB quota approvals, leaving overall output below theoretical supply levels. Panel Discussion: Upstream Opportunities & Challenges for Nickel Mine Owners Moderator: Enzo Brooklyn, Senior Nickel Analyst, SMM Panelists: Luca Maiotti, Policy Analyst, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Aldo Namora, President Director, PT Ceria Metalindo Prima Jerome Baudelet, CEO, Eramet Indonesia Patrick Lim, Country Head, HyperStrong Indonesia Keynote Speech: Achieving Energy Efficiency and Operational Success: The MMD Approach at Mah Moe Speaker: Fuad Budidarma Pratama, General Manager, MMD Mining Machinery Indonesia Keynote Speech: Global Nickel Market Outlook Speaker: Ricardo Ferreira, Director of Market Research and Statistics, International Nickel Study Group (INSG) Ricardo Ferreira noted that global primary nickel production is estimated to have declined by approximately 4% YoY, measured across the full chain from raw ore mining to finished primary nickel products. Most of this decrease originated from Indonesia, while expectations also pointed to a pullback in Chinese nickel output. According to the monthly bulletin released earlier, global primary nickel already edged down by about 1% in Q1, with Indonesia down roughly 3% and China down about 1%. Keynote Speech: New Refining Technologies for Laterite Nickel and Spent Batteries Speaker: Dr. Chunwei Liu, Managing Director of Resource Extraction, Botree Recycling Technologies Distribution of Laterite Nickel Ore Resources Laterite nickel ore accounts for 55% of global nickel resources and is the main source of nickel for industrial production worldwide. With the continuous development and promotion of high-nickel batteries, market demand for nickel—and consequently for laterite nickel ore processing—has grown significantly. Geographic concentration: Mainly distributed in tropical countries within 30° north and south of the equator. Three core regions: Southeast Asia: Indonesia, the Philippines (major laterite nickel ore producing areas). Americas: Cuba, Brazil. Oceania: Australia, New Caledonia. Panel Discussion: Nickel Price Volatility, Product Spreads, and Policy Shifts: What Will Define the Market in the next 5 years? Moderator: Slupek Kamila, Secretary-General, INSG Panelists: Jim Lennon, Analyst, Macquarie Septian Hario Seto, Member, National Economic Council Republic of Indonesia Denis Sharypin, Strategic Marketing Director, Norilsk Nickel Edric Koh, Head of Corporate Sales, Asia, London Metal Exchange Mark Selby, CEO & Director, Canada Nickel Company Keynote Speech: Korean Battery Supply Chain Strategy and Indonesia's Role Speaker: James (IKHWAN) Choi, Country Manager, Korea Office, SMM Korea Office Keynote Speech: Retreat or Evolve? The Counter-Attack of High-Nickel Batteries under the LFP Siege: Solid State, 4680, and the "Range Anxiety" Premium Speaker: Jared Zhu, Head of Consulting, Renewable Energy & Non-ferrous Metals, Shanghai Metals Market Jared noted that LFP batteries have steadily increased their market share in power battery and energy storage markets in recent years. With the rapid development of emerging sectors such as humanoid robots, industrial robots, and electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles (eVTOL), ternary batteries, leveraging their performance advantages, are more competitive than LFP batteries. Solid-state batteries are regarded by the industry as a must-win field for future competition, but it is worth noting that this new technology, capable of rewriting industry rules, still has a long development cycle before full commercialization. Positioning in the LFP Era LFP Accelerates Replacement of Ni-Co-Mn in Energy Storage and EVs, Leading in Scale and Growth SMM forecasts the global share of EV power battery types from 2026 to 2027, expecting LFP batteries to account for around 68% in 2026, with that ratio rising to about 70% in 2027. For ESS battery types, from 2022 to 2025, the share of LFP batteries in global ESS batteries continued to rise, and in 2026, it is expected to increase to around 99%. Keynote Speech: QMAG - Market Leader of Calcined Magnesia for Nickel/Cobalt MHP Production Speaker: Christoph Beyer, Managing Director of Queensland Magnesia (QMAG) Dr. Keynote Speech: Cobalt in Focus: Powering the Next Chapter of Critical Minerals Speaker: Dinah McLeod, Director General, Cobalt Institute June 5: Nickel and Cobalt Forum Keynote Speeches Keynote Speech: Balancing Risk and Reward: Investing in Indonesia's Nickel and Cobalt Value Chain Speaker: Izzie Huo, Senior Research Fellow, Shanghai Metals Market Panel Discussion: Too Much Nickel? Balancing Oversupply Risks with Long-Term Investment in Indonesia Moderator: Jean Tang, Commercial Director, Shanghai Metals Market Panelists: Ali Safdar, Managing Director & Partner, BCG (Boston Consulting Group) Arif Perdana Kusumah, Chairman, Forum Industri Nikel Indonesia (FINI) Ditya Maharhani Harninda, Senior Vice President Corporate Banking 2, PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (Persero) Keynote Speech: Valve Solutions for Severe Service in HPAL Speaker: Changsong Deng, President of International Business Division, ANTIWEAR Keynote Speech: Breaking the Import Dependency: Economics and Feasibility of Pyrite-based Acid Production for Indonesia's HPAL Supply Chain Speaker: Bede Beresford Evans, President Director, PT Sumbawa Timur Mining Keynote Speech: Key Technology and Economic Analysis of AI Power Microgrid Solutions in Mining Speaker: Frank Qi, CEO, Ai Power (Suzhou) Technology Co., Ltd. Keynote Speech: Value of Analytical Solutions in Mining Processes Speaker: Toh Tiong Yen, Sales Manager, Malvern Panalytical Keynote Speech: New Caledonia's Nickel Landscape Speaker: Gabriel Bensimon, Special Advisor to the President of the Government on Nickel and Mining-Related Matters, The Government of New Caledonia Keynote Speech: Global Flow of Nickel from Mining to End-Use Speaker: Dr. Steukers Veronique, President, Nickel Institute Primary nickel production is now dominated by Indonesia. In 2025, Indonesia produced around 50% of the world's primary nickel, compared to just 6% a decade earlier. Primary nickel production in the rest of the world declined. In 2025, primary nickel production in the rest of the world, excluding Indonesia and China, accounted for just over 20% of the global total, down from 65% a decade earlier. Indonesia and China are the core driving forces shaping the global nickel supply chain landscape. From the perspective of nickel product circulation structure, NPI, backed by Indonesia's capacity advantage, firmly dominates the circulation mainstream; in terms of global nickel raw material supply by grade, Class 2 nickel accounts for approximately 58%, Class 1 nickel for just under 30%, and nickel chemical products for the remaining around 13%. Panel Discussion: Meet the Future of ESG: Standard, Challenges and Opportunities in Mining and Processing Moderator: Katz Benjamin, Policy Analyst, OECD Panelists: Dr. Chris Schlekat, Executive Director of NIPERA, Nickel Institute Ning Wang, Manager, Sustainable Development Department, China Chamber of Commerce of Metals, Minerals & Chemicals Importers & Exporters Yumo Li, Head of ESG Office in Tsingshan Board, Tsingshan Holding Group Vinícius Mendes Ferreira, Executive Advisor for Nickel Downstreaming, PT Vale Indonesia Fan Li, Sustainability and ESG Services Manager, dss+ Tom Fairlie, Senior Sustainability Manager, Cobalt Institute

[Bullish Sentiment Prevailed in the Market This Week, with Solid Support for the Silicon Metal Bottom]: On the supply side, operating rates at northern silicon enterprises were basically stable, while those in Sichuan and Yunnan slowly improved. However, the pace of overall supply release was limited, with insufficient incremental elasticity. Combined with demand side keeping pace, supply and demand in the industry were broadly balanced recently. Recently, bullish sentiment dominated the market, providing strong support for the silicon metal bottom. Silicon metal prices were constrained in both upside and downside room and may continue to move sideways within a narrow range. Watch for fluctuations in macro expectations and changes in the PV industry, which may cause marginal disturbance to silicon metal.

People's Daily published an article titled "PV Industry Moving Toward a More Rational, Stable, and Sustainable New Stage," and the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) held an expert symposium, once again stressing the need to thoroughly rectify "involution-style" competition. It is rumored that the new round of exit standards for energy consumption and efficiency are about to be released, which could drive a 20-30% capacity rationalization in the PV sector, thereby leading the industry to quickly cross the inflection point of a new cycle. From an industry pattern perspective, as a typical asset-heavy sector, supply-side rationalization is the fastest way for the PV industry to enter a new cycle and also the most crucial anchor for the "reversal" logic traded in capital markets. The pace and intensity of policy implementation will serve as a key catalyst for the subsequent market trend.

DCE iron ore prices strengthened slightly in early trading and rallied at the close today. The most-traded contract I2609 eventually settled at 771.5 yuan/mt, up 1.51% from the previous trading day. Port spot prices rose 5–10 yuan/mt from the day before. Most traders followed market trends, with activity generally moderate; steel mills maintained a strong wait-and-see stance with few inquiries. As of now, spot transaction volumes have been light. Demand side, iron ore demand grew significantly this week. According to SMM’s latest data, the operating rate of surveyed mills rose 0.59% WoW this week to 90.47%, while daily average hot metal output was 2.4597 million mt, up 29,500 mt WoW. Sentiment side, as China’s coal mines gradually resume production, the marginal disruptions from coal and coke are gradually easing, reducing the downward pressure on iron ore prices. Furthermore, market rumors continue to ferment, and expectations of supply contraction are beginning to intensify, providing a floor for iron ore prices. In the near term, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate after a brief recovery.

Today, iron ore futures on the DCE trended weaker, with the most-traded I2609 contract closing at 760 yuan/mt, down 0.20% from the previous trading day. Port spot prices were little changed from the prior day. Most traders followed market trends, with moderate activity; steel mills remained cautious, with fewer inquiries; as of now, spot trading volumes were relatively low. Looking ahead, iron ore demand is expected to edge up in the short term. According to an SMM survey, the impact of blast furnace maintenance on hot metal production this week was 1.1058 million mt, down 240,100 mt WoW, and next week is expected to be down 6,800 mt WoW from this week. The short-term increase in pig iron production may strengthen support for iron ore prices and prompt price recovery. Nevertheless, against the backdrop of the steel off-season, iron ore inventories have also begun to rise, and the overall upside room for iron ore remains under strong suppression. Therefore, ore prices may stage a brief recovery before continuing to hover at lows in the short term.

DCE iron ore futures trended weaker today, with the most-traded contract I2609 closing at 759 yuan/mt, down 0.78% from the previous trading day. Port spot prices fell 5 yuan/mt from the day before. Traders followed the market trend with moderate offering interest; steel mills mainly engaged in need-based restocking, with limited inquiry. Trading volume of spot cargoes was modest as of now. Shipping data shows China's iron ore supply has entered a loose phase, with ore prices gradually coming under pressure. SMM data indicates that last week, global iron ore shipment volume dropped 3.88% WoW to 33.83 million mt, while iron ore arrivals at Chinese ports rose 2% WoW to 27.54 million mt. Meanwhile, the decline in port pick-up volume also reflects that demand from steel mills has begun to slow. With expectations of rising coking coal and coke prices still in place, even if hot metal prices remain elevated, steel mills' receptiveness to iron ore prices is quite constrained, making ore prices overall more likely to fall than rise. In the near term, iron ore prices will likely remain under pressure, exhibiting a generally weak trend.

SMM June 8 News: On the metals market front: Overnight last Friday, base metals across domestic and overseas markets fell broadly. In the domestic market, SHFE tin led the decline with a drop of 5.27%, while LME tin fell 4.92%. LME copper dropped 2.78%. LME aluminum, LME zinc, and SHFE copper all fell over 1%, with LME aluminum down 1.84%, LME zinc down 1.52%, and SHFE copper down 1.84%. Declines for the remaining metals were all within 1%. The alumina main contract rose 0.65%, while the cast aluminum main contract fell 0.61%. Overnight last Friday, ferrous metals generally rose. Only stainless steel fell, with a decline of 0.14%, while the remaining metals all increased. HRC and rebar saw gains of around 0.4%, with HRC up 0.47% and rebar up 0.44%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 1.73%, and coke rose 0.15%. In the precious metals market, overnight last Friday, COMEX gold fell 3.35%, recording a weekly decline of 5.21%. COMEX silver plunged 8.08%, with a weekly decline of 10.39%, marking its fourth consecutive weekly drop. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 2.93%, with a weekly decline of 0.66%. SHFE silver fell 7.43%, with a weekly decline of 3.72%. The US achieved another strong month of job growth in May, raising concerns about a potential interest rate hike later this year. As of 8:27 on June 6, the closing market data from overnight last Friday: Macro Front [Foreign Ministry Introduces Arrangements for General Secretary Xi Jinping’s Visit to North Korea] At the invitation of Kim Jong Un, State Affairs Commission Chairman of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and President of the People’s Republic of China, will pay a state visit to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea from June 8 to 9. Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning stated during a regular press conference on the 5th that this visit marks General Secretary Xi Jinping’s first state visit to North Korea in seven years. During the visit, the top leaders of the two Parties and two countries will exchange views on bilateral relations and issues of common concern. In recent years, under the strategic guidance of General Secretary Xi Jinping and General Secretary Kim Jong Un, the traditional friendly and cooperative relationship between China and the DPRK has maintained sustained, healthy, and stable development, bringing tangible benefits to both countries and their peoples. This year marks the 65th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance Between the People’s Republic of China and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. The two sides will take this visit as an opportunity to push for greater progress in China-DPRK relations that keeps pace with the times, enhance the well-being of both peoples, and make greater contributions to peace, stability, development, and prosperity in the region and the world. (Xinhua News Agency) Domestic front: On June 5, Premier Li Qiang presided over a State Council executive meeting. The meeting pointed out the need to further strengthen forward-looking layout and increase promotion efforts based on the characteristics of future industries, to firmly grasp the initiative in development. It is necessary to solidify the technological foundation, continuously increase investment in basic research, and systematically deploy breakthroughs in original and disruptive technologies. Ecological construction must be emphasized, promoting the deep integration of industry, academia, research, and application, encouraging close cooperation between upstream and downstream segments of the industry chain, and fostering more startups and unicorn enterprises in key tracks. [Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Seeks Public Comments on the Regulations on the Administration of Housing Provident Fund (Revised Draft for Comments)] The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a notice to solicit public comments on the Regulations on the Administration of Housing Provident Fund (Revised Draft for Comments). Under any of the following circumstances, an employee may withdraw the balance stored in their housing provident fund account: (1) Paying rent; (2) Purchasing, constructing, renovating, or overhauling a self-occupied dwelling; (3) Repaying the principal and interest of a housing purchase loan; (4) Decorating a self-occupied dwelling, up to a certain limit; (5) Paying property management fees for a self-occupied dwelling; (6) Retiring or leaving their post; (7) Completely losing the ability to work and terminating the labor (personnel) relationship with their employer; (8) Emigrating and settling abroad; (9) Other housing consumption circumstances approved by the State Council. (Wall Street CN) The Ministry of Transport and ten other departments issued the Three-Year Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Small and Mini Passenger Vehicle Rental (2026–2028). The plan proposes accelerating the construction of electric vehicle charging facilities in expressway service areas, with 30,000 EV charging facilities (charging guns) of 60 kW power or above to be newly built or renovated in expressway service areas (including parking areas) by year-end 2028. The plan proposes accelerating the construction of electric vehicle charging facilities in expressway service areas, with 30,000 EV charging facilities (charging guns) of 60 kW power or above to be newly built or renovated in expressway service areas (including parking areas) by year-end 2028. US Dollar front: As of overnight closing last Friday, the US dollar index rose 0.62% to 100.07. Previously released data showed strong US employment data for May. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics disclosed that non-farm payrolls added 172,000 jobs in May. Employment data for the previous two months were revised upwards, and job gains over the last three months marked the best performance in more than two years. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, with labour market resilience significantly exceeding overall market forecasts. Nick Timiraos, the Fed mouthpiece, noted that the re-acceleration of spring hiring this year will provide more ammunition for Fed officials who worry about inflation and believe current interest rates are too low to contain a new round of price pressures. Some officials recently hinted that the Fed should be ready to raise interest rates later this year, at least clawing back some of the three 25-basis-point cuts implemented in H2 last year. Those cuts were implemented to stabilize the labour market, which now looks much healthier. This jobs report will not entirely settle the debate over how much the Fed should consider raising rates later this year, but it does further suggest the case for near-term cuts has largely evaporated. The stronger argument for raising rates now comes from the inflation outlook. Multiple overlapping shocks—from AI infrastructure build-out, tariffs, and energy—could keep inflation persistently above the Fed’s 2% target, even if progress is made in restoring commercial shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. If the Fed holds steady as inflation rises, inflation-adjusted real rates would fall. Even if the labour market is not the primary driver, this mechanism could become a key factor driving rate hike discussions. (Jin10 Data APP) Fed official Hammack stated that with the labour market appearing to be roughly balanced, a rate hike may be appropriate soon. Hammack said that while she never over-emphasizes any single data point, today’s employment report confirms again that the labour market appears to be mostly in balance. She noted the unemployment rate remains at 4.3%, which is basically consistent with what I define as maximum employment. “Given the uncertainty in the economic outlook, holding rates steady is appropriate for now. But if recent trends continue, action may soon be needed.” This essentially repeats remarks she made on June 2. (Jin10 Data APP) According to foreign media reports, May non-farm payrolls data far exceeded market expectations, and the US interest rate futures market significantly increased bets on a Fed rate hike at the December meeting. Based on data from LSEG, the rate futures market now prices in a 65% probability of a Fed rate hike in December, up from 48% before the jobs report. For the June meeting, the market still broadly expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged in the 3.50% to 3.75% range. The stronger-than-expected jobs data indicates the US labour market remains resilient, further weakening market expectations for near-term rate cuts while strengthening investor assessment that the Fed may need to resume rate hikes later to counter inflationary pressures. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in June is 96.6% (compared to 96.4% before the non-farm payrolls release), with a 3.4% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through July is 90.6%, with a 6.2% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike and a 3.2% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro front: This week, in China, data releases include the China May CPI year-over-year rate, China May PPI year-over-year rate, China May trade balance (TBD), and China May M2 money supply year-over-year rate (TBD), among others. In the US, data releases include the US May New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, US May NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, US weekly change in ADP employment for the week ending May 23, US April trade balance, US May existing home sales annualized rate, US April wholesale sales month-over-month rate, US May unadjusted CPI year-over-year rate, US May seasonally adjusted CPI month-over-month rate, US May seasonally adjusted core CPI month-over-month rate, US May unadjusted core CPI year-over-year rate, US 10-year note auction yield for June 10, US 10-year note auction bid-to-cover ratio for June 10, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 6, US May PPI year-over-year rate, US May PPI month-over-month rate, US June preliminary one-year inflation expectations, and US June preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, among others. In Germany, data releases include the German April seasonally adjusted industrial output month-over-month rate, German April seasonally adjusted trade balance, and German May final CPI month-over-month rate, among others. In the Eurozone, data releases include the Eurozone June Sentix Investor Confidence Index, Eurozone ECB deposit facility rate for June 11, and Eurozone ECB main refinancing rate for June 11, among others. In the UK, data releases include the UK April three-month GDP month-over-month rate, UK April manufacturing output month-over-month rate, UK April seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, and UK April industrial output month-over-month rate, among others. Data including the Bank of Canada interest rate decision for June 10, French May final CPI month-over-month rate, Japan April trade balance, and Switzerland May Consumer Confidence Index will also be released. Furthermore, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision, and BoC Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers will hold a monetary policy press conference. The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision, and ECB President Lagarde will hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude Oil front: As of overnight closing last Friday, oil prices in both markets fell together, with WTI oil down 3% and Brent oil down 2.37%. However, both recorded weekly gains, with WTI oil up 3.31% weekly and Brent oil up 1.82% weekly. The decline in crude oil prices overnight last Friday was primarily due to reduced market perceptions of a renewed US-Iran conflict. US President Trump stated at a campaign event in Wisconsin on the 5th that the war with Iran would be ended quickly, thus removing a significant factor contributing to high prices. With the midterm elections approaching, US public opinion widely believes the US-Iran war has driven up oil prices and the cost of living, putting pressure on Republican election prospects. (CCTV) Fitch stated in a new report that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz created a logistical supply shock but did not alter the market trend. The agency expects a rapid recovery in regional production, strong supply growth from non-OPEC countries, and potentially more aggressive OPEC policies to re-trigger an oversupply situation in Q4 2026, pushing oil prices downward once the Strait reopens. Based on an assumption that the Strait of Hormuz reopens around month-end July (implying an effective closure period of five months), our baseline expectation is that Brent crude will average $87 per barrel in 2026. Significant uncertainty remains regarding the exact timing of the Strait's reopening, and the risks facing oil prices are binary. The current price increase reflects a transitory logistical supply shock rather than a permanent loss of production capacity. We expect the Strait to reopen around end-July and anticipate a significant decline in Brent prices from the highs seen between March and July. (Jin10 Data APP) According to a Bloomberg survey, OPEC crude oil production fell to its lowest level in decades in May, as the US blockade on Iran and turmoil in the Persian Gulf region continued to suppress output. OPEC oil production dropped by 1.22 million barrels per day in May (half of which came from Iran), falling to 16.33 million barrels per day, its lowest level in at least 37 years. This figure excludes the UAE, which withdrew from OPEC last month. The survey indicated Iran’s oil production plunged last month by 710,000 barrels per day to 2.34 million barrels per day, a five-year low. US Central Command continues to enforce a blockade on all maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports. (Jin10 Data APP) Notably, however, the UK government has raised its domestic crude oil price forecast, believing that even if the US and Iran reach a peace deal, crude oil prices could remain around $100 per barrel through 2028, as it now anticipates energy supply recovery in the Gulf region will take longer. A new analysis warns that pressure on energy prices is higher than previously expected, amid a deteriorating global economic outlook. The UK government previously estimated Persian Gulf supply could recover about six months after the end of the war, but it now believes recovery could take as long as 14 months. (Jin10 Data APP)

[Sufficient Cost and Sentiment Support: GO Silicon Steel Prices May Hold Up Well Next Week] This week, cold-rolled grain-oriented silicon steel spot prices fluctuated upward, with overall market trading activity recovering steadily. Market feedback indicated that orders from downstream transformer and power equipment enterprises were being released steadily in recent periods, end-user restocking demand picked up, and purchasing enthusiasm improved notably compared with the previous period, no longer limited to rigid-demand purchases, with small and medium-sized restocking orders increasing. Raw material cost support remained solid, and combined with mainstream steel mills raising their June ex-factory base prices, this provided strong underpinning for the spot market, with bullish sentiment continuing to heat up.

[SMM Daily Comment: Significant Premium Stratification, Structural NPI Market Trend Continues] June 3 — The SMM upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 3.04, up 0.02 MoM, and the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.94, up 0.01 MoM.

To better track rare earth price swings and support long‑term contract settlements, SMM launched “Evening Prices” (since April 27, 2026) for Pr‑Nd and gadolinium, available via data terminal and Renrenkan. As afternoon transaction peaks have shifted due to volatility (e.g., Pr‑Nd alloy: 1.09M to 830k yuan/mt in H1 2026), evening prices reflect actual afternoon trades, benefiting metal‑magnet contracts. For magnet‑end‑user annual contracts, morning prices are recommended.