As of April 24, the mainstream price in the south China market — SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was at a discount of 345 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract, while the mainstream price in the east China market — SMM A00 aluminum was at a discount of 130 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract. The price spread between the two regions had exceeded 200 yuan/mt, covering sea freight, short-haul transfer, and logistics costs, officially opening up the transshipment window between Guangdong and Shanghai...

【SMM Copper Cathode Rod Update】The operating rate of copper cathode rod producers fell 8.45 percentage points WoW to 69.37% this week. Copper prices fluctuating at highs suppressed market trading activity, with new orders performing weakly and downstream new orders remaining generally subdued. In addition, with the Labour Day holiday approaching, wait-and-see sentiment among enterprises intensified, and some enterprises arranged maintenance, leading to a notable pullback in operating rates.

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Rare Earth Prices Fluctuated Significantly This Week, Bearish News Severely Undermined Market Confidence] The Pr-Nd oxide market fluctuated significantly recently. Driven by expectations of tightening on the supply side, upstream suppliers raised their quotes one after another. However, as bearish news spread, market confidence was severely undermined. As of today, Pr-Nd oxide prices adjusted to 780,000-800,000 yuan/mt within the week.

[SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Minutes: LME Zinc Ingot Inventory Continued to Decline, Zinc Prices Surged During the Day]: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,414.5/mt. After the opening, LME zinc dipped slightly, touching a low of $3,387.5/mt before quickly rising, reaching an intraday high of $3,454.5/mt. LME zinc then fluctuated at highs before pulling back, ultimately closing higher at $3,437/mt...

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Last Week Tin Prices in and outside China Showed Wild Swings, Dominated by Repeated Shifts in Macro Sentiment]

This week, stainless steel production costs showed a strengthening upward trend, while spot prices rose even more significantly. The cost-price inversion at stainless steel mills was repaired, and profits gradually recovered. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on current raw material prices, the full cost profit margin reached 1.79% this week; calculated using inventory raw material costs, the profit margin was 1.99%. On the nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices showed a strengthening upward trend this week. Affected by the revision of Indonesia's nickel ore HMP, the market expected nickel ore costs to rise. Combined with the continued strengthening of SHFE nickel and SS futures, bullish expectations in the high-grade NPI market were strong. After downstream stainless steel mill profits recovered, their acceptance of high-priced raw materials improved, driving high-grade NPI quotes to stop falling and rebound. As of this Friday, mainstream high-grade NPI with 10-12% grade rose 10 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,090 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market side, stainless steel scrap prices rose sharply this week, driven by nickel ore cost increases and futures market linkage. The revision of nickel ore pricing pushed up cost expectations, and combined with the simultaneous rise in high-grade NPI, raw material linkage drove prices higher. Although the cost advantage of stainless steel scrap narrowed slightly, it remained attractive to steel enterprises, and market trading activity improved. Despite delayed payment issues dragging on trading pace, the market remained generally strong under futures-spot resonance and demand support, and was expected to consolidate at highs in the short term. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts prices in Shanghai rose 200 yuan/mt, with the latest quote at approximately 10,350 yuan/mt. On the chrome-based raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued their downward trend this week. Although stainless steel prices strengthened somewhat, procurement transactions in the high-carbon ferrochrome market remained sluggish recently. Earlier maintenance and production cut plans were insufficiently implemented, and current supply remained at a relatively high level. Meanwhile, recent declines in chrome ore and coke prices further weakened cost support, and rising nickel-based raw material costs also exerted some downward pressure on ferrochrome prices. As of this Friday, mainstream high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia fell 75 yuan/mt (50% metal content) WoW, closing at 8,475 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Both Macro and Fundamental Performances Stabilized, Tin Prices Continued Wild Swings Fluctuating Trend in the Morning]

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,240.5/mt, fluctuated upward to a high of $13,295/mt in early trading, then the copper price center dropped sharply to $13,182.5/mt, followed by wild swings, and finally closed at $13,242/mt, down 0.26%, with trading volume at 17,000 lots and open interest at 287,000 lots, a decrease of 2,451 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 102,350 yuan/mt, rose to 102,510 yuan/mt in early trading, then the copper price center dropped sharply to 101,700 yuan/mt, before fluctuating upward to finally close at 102,290 yuan/mt, down 0.09%, with trading volume at 28,500 lots and open interest at 174,000 lots, an increase of 820 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,965/mt. After briefly touching $1,972.5/mt during the Asian session, it fluctuated downward. Entering the European session, LME lead extended its decline, dipping to $1,946/mt late in the session and closing at $1,947/mt, down 0.99%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,750 yuan/mt. After briefly touching a high of 16,765 yuan/mt early in the session, it fluctuated downward to a low of 16,670 yuan/mt, and closed at 16,675 yuan/mt, down 0.6%. On the macro front: On Thursday, US President Trump said the war among the US, Israel, and Iran was “about to end,” and the White House was optimistic about reaching an agreement, saying more face-to-face talks might be held in Pakistan this weekend. US Fed—Williams: if inflation pulls back to 2%, cutting interest rate is an appropriate move, but it has not reached that stage yet; Milan: inclined to cut interest rate three times this year, possibly four times; as of this morning, interest rate futures priced in cumulative interest rate cuts of about 9 bp for the full year. China’s Q1 GDP grew 5.0% YoY. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a special meeting to advance the industrial development of the low-altitude economy for central state-owned enterprises. National Bureau of Statistics: in March, the MoM change in sales prices of newly built commercial residential housing in first-tier cities shifted from flat in the previous month to an increase of 0.2%; value-added industrial output above designated size grew 5.7% YoY in real terms. : After lead prices rose, lead smelters and traders became more willing to make shipments, though differences in shipments remained. Mainstream producing areas were quoted at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 130 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. For secondary lead, losses eased relatively, smelters’ willingness to ship increased, and secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Meanwhile, the lead-acid battery market was in the off-season, downstream enterprises had limited procurement demand and stayed on the sidelines amid high prices, and spot order transactions were sluggish. Inventory: On April 16, LME lead inventory fell by 350 mt to 275,625 mt; SMM social inventory of lead ingots across five regions edged up. Today’s lead price forecast: The lead-acid battery market is in the traditional consumption off-season, downstream enterprises have limited procurement demand, and spot market trading activity is relatively weak. In addition, due to delivery of the SHFE lead 2604 contract, suppliers transferred inventory to delivery warehouses, and overall social inventory continued to rise. Also, medium-to-large secondary lead enterprises in east China saw concentrated production cuts and suspensions, including factors such as routine maintenance and insufficient raw materials. In addition, the SHFE/LME price ratio for lead narrowed, import lead premium quotes rose, and the inflow of imported refined lead decreased relatively. With bullish and bearish factors intertwined on the fundamentals and geopolitical issues recurring, lead prices maintained wild swings in the short term. Data Source Disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Rare Earth Prices Continued to Rise This Week, Market Trading Activity Increased] Pr-Nd oxide market prices, supported by raw material costs and expectations of reduced upstream supply, saw a notable increase in downstream purchasing activity. Suppliers raised their offers one after another, and low-priced supplies tightened rapidly. As of today, Pr-Nd oxide prices rose to 773,000-778,000 yuan/mt over the week.