In May, TiO₂ prices held firm on cost support amid high operating rates and stockpiles, with exports lending support. Titanium sponge prices inched up on higher raw material costs, though demand remained tepid and overcapacity persisted.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Some Module Makers Looking to Hold Prices Firm, Silicon Metal in the Doldrums] Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 34-36.5 yuan/kg. Weekend market prices remained temporarily stable. The market is currently approaching its lows, providing some price support, but the surplus remains significant, and downstream buyers still have a mindset to push for lower prices.

SMM News on June 11: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals generally rose, with only SHFE lead declining, by 0.06%. SHFE aluminum and SHFE zinc both rose by over 1%, with SHFE aluminum up 1.25% and SHFE zinc up 1.23%. SHFE tin rose by 0.69%, while the fluctuations in the gains of other metals were relatively small. The main alumina contract closed flat at 2,895 yuan/mt, and the main aluminum casting contract rose by 0.91%. In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract rose by 1.68%, polysilicon rose by 0.72%, and silicon metal rose by 2.23%. The main European container shipping contract fell by 2.1%. In the ferrous metals series, prices rose collectively, with iron ore up 1%, rebar up 0.67%, and HRC up 0.78%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal rose by 1.1%, and coke rose by 1.31%. In the overseas market, as of 15:06, only LME tin declined, by 0.08%, while other metals rose. LME aluminum and LME zinc both rose by over 1%, with LME aluminum up 1.26% and LME zinc up 1.19%. The fluctuations in the gains of other metals were relatively small. In precious metals, as of 15:06, COMEX gold rose by 0.44%, and COMEX silver rose by 0.14%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 0.56%, and SHFE silver fell by 0.28%. Market conditions as of 15:06 today 》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard Macro Front Domestic Aspect: [Announcement] The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10:00 a.m. on Friday, June 13, 2025. Li Yongxia, Deputy Representative for International Trade Negotiations of the Ministry of Commerce, and Song Junji, Vice Governor of Shandong Province, will introduce the relevant situation of the 2025 Qingdao Summit for Leaders of Multinational Corporations and answer questions from reporters. [Average Annual Growth Rate of 14.2% Over 25 Years, China-Africa Trade Volume Exceeds 2 Trillion Yuan] On the occasion of the upcoming Fourth China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo in Changsha, Hunan Province, data released by the General Administration of Customs on June 11 showed that since the establishment of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in 2000, the total value of China's imports and exports with Africa has increased from less than 100 billion yuan that year to 2.1 trillion yuan in 2024, representing a cumulative growth of over 20 times and an average annual growth rate of 14.2%, fully demonstrating the strong vitality of China-Africa economic and trade cooperation. On the same day, the General Administration of Customs also released the 2024 China-Africa Trade Index, which rapidly climbed from a base value of 100 points in 2000 to a new high of 1,056.53 points in 2024. (Xinhua News Agency) The People's Bank of China conducted 164 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 214.9 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 50.9 billion yuan was achieved. ► On June 11, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was set at 7.1815 yuan per US dollar. US dollar: As of 15:06, the US dollar index rose by 0.12% to 99.17. Most economists believe that the US Federal Reserve will remain on hold for at least a few months, as the tariff policies of US President Trump may pose a lingering risk of reigniting inflation. The market will closely monitor the US inflation data to be released later on Wednesday. This report may reflect the economic impact of tariffs on price pressures and could potentially determine the trajectory of the US Fed's monetary policy for the remainder of the year. Macro: The World Bank's "Global Economic Prospects" report, released on Tuesday (June 10), clearly stated that global economic growth in 2025 will be only 2.3%, significantly lower than the pre-COVID-19 average and the lowest non-recessionary growth since the 2008 financial crisis. More concerningly, the average annual growth rate of global GDP is projected to be just 2.5% by 2027, marking the slowest pace since the 1960s. The report attributes this bleak outlook to rising trade barriers and "record-high uncertainty." Nearly 70% of economies worldwide are facing downward revisions to their growth forecasts, including the US, Europe, and several emerging market regions. Ayhan Kose, the World Bank's Deputy Chief Economist, vividly compared the situation in an interview, saying, "Uncertainty is like fog on the runway, hindering investment and dimming the economic outlook." This uncertainty not only weighs on global trade but also exerts significant pressure on consumption, investment, and financial market stability. (Huitong Finance) Today, data to be released include China's year-on-year growth rate of M2 money supply for May (time uncertain between June 11-17), China's year-to-date social financing scale for May (time uncertain between June 11-17), China's year-to-date new RMB loans for May (time uncertain between June 11-17), the US's year-on-year CPI growth rate for May (not seasonally adjusted), the US's year-on-year core CPI growth rate for May (not seasonally adjusted), the US's year-on-year energy CPI growth rate for May (not seasonally adjusted), the US's June IPSOS Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), and Australia's ANZ consumer confidence index for the week ending June 8. Additionally, He Lifeng visited the UK from June 8 to 13 and held the first meeting of the China-US Economic and Trade Consultation Mechanism. Crude oil: As of 15:06, oil prices in both markets fell simultaneously, with US crude oil down by 0.11% and Brent crude oil down by 0.18%. According to CCTV News, on the 10th local time, Russian President Putin signed a decree extending countermeasures against the price cap imposed on Russian oil and oil products until December 31, 2025. Earlier, on December 27, 2022, Putin signed a presidential decree prohibiting the supply of Russian oil and oil products to foreign legal entities and individuals that directly or indirectly use a price cap mechanism in their contracts. This decree took effect on February 1, 2023, and its validity has been extended multiple times. As a major oil-producing country in the world, if Russia significantly reduces its oil exports in the future due to Western price caps, it could lead to an increase in energy prices in some EU countries. For some European countries, such sanctions only harm both sides equally; while others believe that the current price cap is not low enough and does not meet their expectations. For example, countries like Greece, Cyprus, and Malta, which rely heavily on the shipping industry, hope to raise the price cap to around $70 per barrel to alleviate the pressure on local enterprises. However, this is completely opposite to the views of Poland and the Baltic states, where some officials have even proposed setting the cap at $20 per barrel. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, on the other hand, has called for a price cap of no more than $30 per barrel. The EIA released its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report, significantly raising its forecast for the crude oil market surplus in 2025. Its data shows that global oil inventories increased in the first five months of this year and will continue to grow significantly during the forecast period. The EIA expects global oil inventories to increase by an average of 8,000 barrels per day in 2025, which is 4,000 barrels per day higher than last month's forecast. The reason for the upward revision in the supply surplus forecast is the decline in oil demand from OECD countries in 2025, as well as the increase in supply growth from OPEC countries and non-OPEC countries. Additionally, the EIA emphasized that while no major supply disruptions are expected, oil supply risks still exist. From the inventory perspective, API data released early in the morning showed that US crude oil inventories decreased by 370,000 barrels in the week ending June 6. Although crude oil inventories have declined, the 370,000-barrel drop is far below analysts' expectations of 2 million barrels. More concerning is the continuous increase in refined product inventories, with gasoline inventories rising by 3 million barrels and distillate inventories increasing by 3.7 million barrels in the same week. Analysts had previously forecast that distillate inventories would increase by about 800,000 barrels and gasoline inventories by 900,000 barrels last week. The continued significant inventory buildup of gasoline and diesel in the US, exceeding expectations, has exerted downward pressure on oil prices. (Wenhua Comprehensive) SMM Daily Review ► Rare Earth Prices Decline Slightly, Transactions Remain Stagnant [SMM Rare Earth Daily Review] ► As Delivery Approaches, Spot-Futures Price Spread Narrows, Spot Market Transactions Remain Sluggish [SMM Daily Review]

[Indonesia Conference | SMM: Global tin market may shift to a slight surplus in 2025, but structural contradictions will dominate tin price fluctuations] Chen Peng, Senior Analyst of Tin at SMM, discussed the changes in the global tin industry chain's pattern and future development trends. In 2024, the tin market achieved a tight balance amid supply disruptions and demand differentiation, and is expected to shift to a slight surplus in 2025. However, structural contradictions (uneven recovery of regional supply, growth of emerging demand) will dominate price fluctuations. The market needs to focus on the pace of production resumptions in Myanmar, Indonesia's exports, and the semiconductor industry's recovery, while guarding against unexpected impacts from macro policies and geopolitical risks.

[ICSG: Global Copper Market Saw a Supply Surplus of 17,000 mt in March, with a 289,000 mt Surplus in the First Three Months of the Year] On May 27 (Tuesday), the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) stated in its latest monthly report that the global copper cathode market experienced a supply surplus of 17,000 mt in March, following a surplus of 180,000 mt in February. The ICSG reported that in the first three months of this year, the market saw a supply surplus of 289,000 mt, compared to a surplus of 268,000 mt during the same period last year.

According to a report by Reuters cited in MiningWeekly, a study released by the Cobalt Institute on Wednesday forecasts that cobalt demand will grow faster than supply, easing the cobalt surplus situation in 2024 and shifting to a deficit in the early 2030s. The report was compiled by Benchmark Minerals Intelligence. In the short term, the future of the cobalt market will depend on developments in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the world's largest cobalt producer. At the end of February, the country decided to implement a four-month temporary export ban. Cobalt is a crucial material for the production of lithium batteries used in electric vehicles (EVs).

According to MiningWeekly , citing Reuters, a research report released by the Cobalt Institute on Wednesday predicted that cobalt demand would grow faster than supply, with the surplus in 2024 easing and turning into a shortage in the early 2030s. The report was completed by Benchmark Minerals Intelligence . In the short term, the future of the cobalt market will depend on the actions of the DRC, the world's largest cobalt producer. At the end of February, the country decided to implement a temporary four-month export ban. Cobalt is a key material for lithium battery production in EVs. At the end of February, cobalt prices fell to their lowest level in nine years. To address the market surplus, this central African nation implemented an export ban. Since then, cobalt prices have risen by 60% to $16/lb. Aside from the uncertainty brought about by the DRC's export ban, global cobalt supply is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 5% over the next few years, with the DRC's share of the global market decreasing from 76% last year to 65% before 2030, as Indonesia's cobalt production rapidly increases, with its share rising from 12% to 22%. Meanwhile, driven by the development of the EV market, global cobalt demand (excluding government inventories) is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 7%, reaching 400,000 mt by the early 2030s. In 2024, global cobalt consumption will reach 222,000 mt. Before 2030, the proportion of cobalt used in EVs will increase from 43% in 2024 to 57%, as the growth in demand from smartphones, laptops, superalloys, and other industrial uses slows down. The report stated that in 2024, the cobalt market would have a surplus of 36,000 mt, accounting for 15% of demand, compared to 25,000 mt in 2023.

SMM May 9 News: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals generally declined, with only SHFE aluminum and SHFE lead rising together. SHFE aluminum rose by 0.54%, and SHFE lead rose by 0.12%. SHFE zinc and SHFE tin fell by around 0.4%, with SHFE zinc down 0.4% and SHFE tin down 0.43%. The rest of the metals fluctuated slightly. The main alumina contract rose by 3.06%. In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract fell by 1.35%, the main polysilicon contract rose by 5.7%, and the main silicon metal contract fell by 0.55%. The main European container shipping contract fell by 0.8%. 》Polysilicon Rebounds from Lows, Surging Over 6% Intraday! What's the Reason? What Supports the Market? 【SMM Flash News】 The ferrous metals series collectively declined, with rebar and HRC both falling over 1%. Rebar fell by 1.63%, and HRC fell by 1.34%. For coking coal and coke, coke fell by 2.1%, and coking coal fell by 1.79%. In the overseas market, as of 15:02, only LME lead and LME zinc rose together in the overseas market, with LME lead up 0.93% and LME zinc up 0.04%. LME copper fell by 0.89%. The rest of the metals dropped slightly. In precious metals, as of 15:02, COMEX gold rose by 0.64%, and COMEX silver rose by 0.21%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell by 1.56%, and SHFE silver rose by 0.05%. Market conditions as of 15:02 today 》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard Macro Front Domestic Aspect: 【General Administration of Customs: China's Foreign Trade in Goods Grew 2.4% in the First Four Months, with Increases in Integrated Circuit and Automobile Exports】 According to customs statistics, in the first four months of 2025, the total value of China's foreign trade in goods was 14.14 trillion yuan, up 2.4% YoY (the same hereinafter). Exports were 8.39 trillion yuan, up 7.5%, and imports were 5.75 trillion yuan, down 4.2%. In April, the total value of China's foreign trade in goods was 3.84 trillion yuan, up 5.6%. Exports were 2.27 trillion yuan, up 9.3%, and imports were 1.57 trillion yuan, up 0.8%. In the first four months, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products were 5.04 trillion yuan, up 9.5%, accounting for 60.1% of the total export value. Among them, automatic data processing equipment and its parts were 458.71 billion yuan, up 5.6%; integrated circuits were 405.15 billion yuan, up 14.7%; and automobiles were 264.98 billion yuan, up 4%. According to CCTV News, Lv Daliang, Director of the Department of Statistics and Analysis at the General Administration of Customs, stated: Since the beginning of this year, various regions and departments have worked together to effectively respond to external shocks, promoting a sustained rebound and improvement in China's economy, with foreign trade maintaining a steady growth trend.The growth rate of imports and exports in April accelerated by 4.3 percentage points compared to Q1, with export growth expanding and imports turning from decline to increase, demonstrating strong resilience. 》Click to view details 【China's E-commerce Logistics Index Continued to Rise in April, Showing Good Momentum】 The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) released China's E-commerce Logistics Index for April today (May 9). Driven by various policies aimed at stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, and promoting consumption, China's E-commerce Logistics Index continued to rise in April, with all major sub-indices rebounding MoM, indicating a good momentum of growth in online consumption. China's E-commerce Logistics Index for April stood at 111.1 points, up 1.1 points MoM. All major sub-indices increased compared to the previous month. ► The central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market on May 9 was 7.2095 RMB per US dollar. US dollar: As of 15:02, the US dollar index fell by 0.11%. Data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 3 were 228,000, lower than the market expectation of 230,000 and the previous week's 241,000. The number of initial jobless claims in the US declined last week, following a short-term spike during the spring holiday and the Easter holiday at the end of April. As Fed Chairman Powell recently stated, despite the potential for tariffs to lead to higher unemployment and inflation, the labour market remains robust. The market is paying attention to speeches by several Fed officials later in the day to gain further insights into the economy and the Fed's policy path. Earlier, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and warned of rising risks of inflation and unemployment. Data: Data to be released today include Switzerland's Q2 Consumer Confidence Index (seasonally adjusted), China's M2 money supply YoY for April, China's Total Social Financing (YTD) for April, China's New RMB Loans (YTD) for April, Canada's Change in Employment for April, and Canada's Unemployment Rate for April. Also worth noting: Vice Premier He Lifeng of the State Council will visit Switzerland from May 9 to 12 for talks with Swiss leaders and relevant parties. During his visit, as the Chinese head of the China-US economic and trade negotiations, Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold talks with the US head, US Treasury Secretary Bessent. In addition, speeches by Bank of England Governor Bailey, a keynote speech by FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams, a speech by Fed Governor Cugler, a speech by 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, a speech by Fed Governor Barr, and speeches by FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams and Fed Governor Waller are also worth paying attention to. Crude oil: As of 15:02, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose by 0.62%. Last week, OPEC+ announced that it would increase its production target for June by 411,000 barrels per day. Following similar moves in April, the organization appears willing to hold its ground amid concerns about low oil prices and weakening demand. Earlier, foreign media reported that global crude oil inventories remained low, giving OPEC+ the opportunity to scale back its voluntary production cuts before a market surplus eventually arrives. Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered reported that OPEC+'s latest survey of secondary sources showed that Kazakhstan's crude oil production in March was 1.852 million barrels per day, 384,000 barrels per day higher than its OPEC+ quota. Additionally, the country failed to fulfill its commitment to cut production by 38,000 barrels per day in March to compensate for overproduction, bringing its total overproduction to 422,000 barrels per day. Similar situations are expected to occur in the coming months. Kazakhstan's production in March increased by 240,000 barrels per day YoY, in stark contrast to the combined production decrease of 6.12 million barrels per day in the other eight OPEC+ member countries. (Wenhua Comprehensive) SMM Daily Review ► May 9: SHFE aluminum fluctuated rangebound, with no significant changes in processing fees and mediocre transaction performance. [Daily Review of Spot Aluminum Billet] ► [SMM Daily Review of Nickel Sulphate] On May 9, nickel sulphate prices remained stable. ► Market inquiry prices continued to decline, and high-grade NPI prices remained under pressure in the short term. [Daily Review of NPI] ► [SMM Daily Review of MHP] On May 9, Indonesian MHP prices slightly declined.

On Monday, April 14, LME copper futures rose to their highest level in over a week, driven by a weaker US dollar and improved market sentiment. At 17:00 London time (00:00 Beijing time on April 15), LME three-month copper closed up $32.5, or 0.36%, at $9,187 per mt, after hitting a high of $9,271.5, the highest level since April 4. Copper prices have risen 13.5% since hitting a multi-month low of $8,105 per mt a week ago, when tariff disputes heightened concerns about global economic growth. The US dollar fell on Monday, as investors flocked to the euro following a crisis of confidence in the dollar. A weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for overseas buyers. A metal trader said, "The market seems to have found support, and it appears to have bottomed out. The recent decline in copper prices has attracted some buying interest." According to a report by Securities Times, late on April 11 local time, the US Customs and Border Protection announced that smartphones, routers, and some computers and laptops would no longer be subject to the so-called 125% "reciprocal tariff" previously imposed on Chinese imports. Technically, LME copper futures face resistance at the 100-day moving average of $9,279. Meanwhile, the price spread between LME spot copper and three-month copper contracts fluctuated significantly ahead of this week's LME contract settlement. The latest was a discount of $23.5 per mt, compared to a premium of $37 at the close last Friday and a discount of $38 a week ago. Data released by the General Administration of Customs of China showed that China's imports of copper ore and its concentrates in March were 2.394 million mt, with cumulative imports from January to March reaching 7.108 million mt, up 1.8% year-on-year from 6.98 million mt. Imports of unwrought copper and copper semis in March were 467,000 mt, with cumulative imports from January to March at 1.303 million mt, down 5.2% year-on-year from 1.375 million mt. In other metals, three-month aluminum fell $22.5, or 0.94%, to close at $2,374 per mt. Goldman Sachs stated in a report that aluminum prices are expected to reach $2,300 per mt by December. The bank also forecasted a global aluminum market surplus of 580,000 mt this year, compared to its previous prediction of a shortage of 76,000 mt.

The US Exempts Certain Goods from "Reciprocal Tariffs" According to Xinhua News Agency, the US Customs and Border Protection announced on the evening of April 11 that the federal government has agreed to exempt electronic products such as smartphones, computers, and chips from so-called "reciprocal tariffs." Documents released by the Customs and Border Protection show that these products are excluded from the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the government on trading partners. The documents indicate that the exemptions apply to electronic products entering the US after April 5, and "reciprocal tariffs" already paid can be refunded. Bloomberg reported that the measure may alleviate the price pressure faced by US consumers to some extent, while benefiting electronics giants including Apple and Samsung Electronics. Financial analyst Hussein Kubesi pointed out that this marks a "180-degree turn" in the US government's tariff policy. Recently, the US government has implemented extensive and erratic tariff policies, causing turmoil in financial markets and drawing criticism from Republican heavyweights, including former Vice President Mike Pence. The First Round of Indirect Negotiations Between the US and Iran Concludes, Both Sides Agree to Continue Talks Next Week According to CCTV News, the first round of indirect negotiations between Iran and the US on lifting sanctions and nuclear issues concluded in Oman on the afternoon of April 12. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that the talks were conducted in a constructive atmosphere of mutual respect, and both sides conveyed their respective government positions on lifting illegal sanctions against Iran and Iran's peaceful nuclear program through the Omani Foreign Minister. Both sides agreed to continue the talks next week. Additionally, after the indirect negotiations, the heads of the Iranian and US delegations had a brief face-to-face exchange witnessed by the Omani Foreign Minister as they left the meeting venue. According to Global Times citing AFP and other media reports, before the US and Iran held talks in Oman on April 12 on issues including Iran's nuclear program, US President Trump stated on April 11 that he "hopes Iran becomes a great country, but without nuclear weapons." What Lies Ahead for Crude Oil Prices? This week, Trump announced comprehensive tariff measures, intensifying expectations of a global economic recession and dampening crude oil consumption expectations. WTI crude oil fell to a four-year low of $55.12 per barrel. Regarding this week's performance of crude oil futures, Chen Dong, a senior energy and chemical researcher at Baocheng Futures, explained that while the US "reciprocal tariff" policy suppressed global economic growth expectations, OPEC+'s accelerated production increase decision significantly exceeded market expectations. Against the backdrop of weakening macro and industry factors, both domestic and overseas crude oil futures prices plummeted. Chen Dong believes that the recent sharp decline in crude oil futures prices is due to two factors: first, the US "reciprocal tariff" policy has sparked concerns of a global economic recession, turning macro sentiment pessimistic and causing a sharp decline in risk asset prices; second, eight OPEC+ oil-producing countries recently decided to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in May, significantly exceeding market expectations and further weakening already fragile oil prices. He noted that OPEC+'s unexpected production increase is a response to long-term overproduction by Kazakhstan and Iraq. Meanwhile, OPEC+ faces the dilemma of choosing between market share and price stability. Non-OPEC+ supply led by the US is eroding OPEC+'s market share. The EIA expects non-OPEC crude oil supply to increase by 1.44 million barrels per day YoY in 2025. The IEA believes non-OPEC crude oil supply will grow by 1.5 million barrels per day YoY in 2025. Additionally, OPEC expects non-OPEC crude oil supply to increase by 1.01 million barrels per day YoY in 2025. With supply expectations continuing to rebound, the price center of both domestic and overseas crude oil futures is steadily declining. Sui Xiaoying, chief petrochemical researcher at the trading consulting department of Founder Midterm Futures, stated that US tariff measures have escalated global trade friction, increased the risk of a global economic recession, exacerbated financial market turmoil, and caused a sharp decline in international oil prices. "Affected by US tariff policies, crude oil consumption faces a blow," Sui Xiaoying said. Against the backdrop of OPEC+'s further production increases, global crude oil supply will rebound in 2025. Meanwhile, under the expectation of a global economic recession, crude oil consumption growth will decline. With increased US sanctions, there is a risk of reduced crude oil supply from Iran and Venezuela, potentially alleviating expectations of a crude oil market surplus. The EIA expects the crude oil market to face a supply surplus in H2 2025, with the surplus reaching 640,000 barrels per day in Q4. The IEA expects the surplus to reach 1.1 million barrels per day in Q4 this year, with an annual surplus of 600,000 barrels per day. Additionally, Sui Xiaoying noted that future escalation of the trade war will negatively impact the global economy, further dampening crude oil consumption. After the US announced the "reciprocal tariff" policy, Goldman Sachs lowered its 2025 and 2026 crude oil demand growth forecasts to 300,000 and 400,000 barrels per day, respectively, while Morgan Stanley reduced its H2 2025 crude oil demand growth forecast to 500,000 barrels per day. Yan Lili, a crude oil and asphalt analyst at the New Era Futures Research Institute, stated that this week's EIA monthly report significantly lowered crude oil demand and price forecasts. The EIA expects global crude oil consumption to increase by 900,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 1 million barrels per day in 2026, down by 400,000 and 100,000 barrels per day, respectively, from last month. Overall, affected by tariff policies, short-term oil price trends are weak but may experience significant fluctuations. US-Iran negotiations are crucial, with the US Treasury pressuring Iran again, and Iran considering a temporary nuclear agreement with the US to buy more negotiation time. If negotiations break down, geopolitical risks may escalate. Chen Dong believes that short-term crude oil futures may continue to decline. Although US President Trump announced a 90-day suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" on some countries, this 90-day period is a negotiation phase, and high tariffs may still be implemented after the period ends. Additionally, OPEC+ is entering a production increase cycle. As the summer oil consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere approaches, it may bring phased support to crude oil futures prices. Looking ahead, Sui Xiaoying stated that US tariff policies will further depress oil prices in the long term. Recent consecutive sharp declines in crude oil have released negative sentiment, and short-term tariff policy trends will continue to dominate market sentiment and oil prices. In the absence of further negative news, oil prices may experience an oversold rebound, but overall upward momentum is limited. In the long term, as Trump's tariff policies and various countries' countermeasures gradually take effect, deteriorating trade conditions will increase the risk of a global economic downturn, potentially leading to a global economic recession, negatively impacting crude oil consumption and further depressing oil prices. Therefore, the overall trend for crude oil remains bearish.