[SMM Nickel Flash] February 11 - SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI average price was 1,043 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), up 2 yuan/mtu MoM from the previous working day. The high-grade NPI market sentiment factor was 1.95, down 0.03 MoM; the upstream sentiment factor was 2.72, down 0.03 MoM; and the downstream sentiment factor was 1.17, down 0.03 MoM.

As of Thursday this week, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index stood at 31,635 yuan/mt, with the quotation range for battery-grade nickel sulphate between 31,400-32,500 yuan/mt, and the average price WoW remained flat.

SMM Feb. 12: SHFE aluminum 2602 fluctuated upward in the morning session, with the price center rising from the previous trading day. Affected by the approaching Chinese New Year, overall market trading sentiment was weak, with mainstream transaction prices concentrated at the average price to a premium of 10 yuan/mt. Today, the shipment sentiment index in the east China market was 2.21, down 0.08 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.33, up 0.04 WoW. SMM A00 aluminum closed at 23,350 yuan/mt, up 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 160 yuan/mt against the 2602 contract, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; at a discount of 220 yuan/mt against the 2603 contract. Trading in the central China market remained sluggish today. As the Chinese New Year approaches, pre-holiday stockpiling by downstream processing enterprises has basically ended, with only minimal just-in-time procurement. Major suppliers have also gradually entered the Chinese New Year break, leading to limited spot aluminum availability in the market. However, some traders bought the dip and stockpiled, driving transaction prices higher. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged from a premium of 20 yuan/mt to a premium of 60 yuan/mt against the central China price. Today, the shipment sentiment index in the central China market was 2.43, down 0.14 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.09, down 0.05 WoW. SMM central China price closed at 23,260 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 250 yuan/mt against the 2602 contract, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; at a discount of 310 yuan/mt against the 2603 contract. The price spread between Henan and Shanghai was -90 yuan/mt, narrowing 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventories in major consumption areas increased by 28,500 mt WoW, with all three regions showing inventory buildup. In the short term, high aluminum prices may continue to suppress end-use demand, coupled with the impact of the Chinese New Year break on downstream sectors. Aluminum ingots still face inventory buildup risks, and spot premiums/discounts are expected to remain under pressure.

In early February, the rhenium market showed a diverging trend of cooling trading activity alongside rising prices. Affected by a mix of factors, supply-demand dynamics in the market have become increasingly competitive, market participants have grown more cautious, and the overall market has displayed distinct phased characteristics. In terms of trading activity, market liquidity for rhenium weakened notably in early February compared with late January, mainly driven by sentiment spillover from the gold and silver markets. Recent price volatility in gold and silver has fostered a wait-and-see mood across the precious metals sector, which indirectly spread to scattered rare metals such as rhenium and slowed overall trading pace. Most market activity consisted of inquiries, with many investors remaining cautious; actual transactions were limited, supported only by small-volume rigid orders. Meanwhile, mild selling by retail investors emerged, reflecting uncertainty over the short-term outlook and further dampening trading sentiment. On the price front, despite weaker trading, rhenium prices remained firm and trended steadily higher, driven primarily by tight supply at the raw material upstream. Ammonium rhenate, the key feedstock for rhenium production, stayed in short supply with prices rising continuously, sharply pushing up raw material costs for downstream smelters. Supported by cost pass-through, end-product prices such as rhenium pellets also moved higher. However, as ammonium rhenate prices kept climbing, downstream smelters faced intense cost pressure. Some producers reported that price adjustments for finished products could not keep up with raw material inflation, squeezing profit margins, and a number of processors planned to raise the proportion of scrap recycling. Looking ahead, the supply picture for ammonium rhenate may see marginal improvement. Attracted by expanding profit margins, many copper‑molybdenum smelters have begun considering recovering ammonium rhenate via smelting by‑processing, which would help ease tight supply to some extent. That said, rhenium is a scattered rare metal present at very low concentrations in copper‑molybdenum ores, and recovery involves technical barriers. Even with increased recovery efforts, output will remain limited, implying a persistent supply deficit in the ammonium rhenate market. In terms of market expectations, the recent failed bidding for 3 tonnes of ammonium rhenate for Sinopec’s catalyst demand indirectly reflected producers’ optimistic outlook. Suppliers widely expect further upside for ammonium rhenate prices and were unwilling to sell in large quantities at current levels, resulting in the unsuccessful tender. Overall, rhenium prices are expected to stay firm in the short term, supported by tight raw material supply and producer reluctance to sell. Over the longer term, rising recovery from copper‑molybdenum smelters may alleviate supply pressure, but a supply gap will persist. The rhenium market is likely to remain high and volatile, with industry profit distribution continuing to shift alongside changes in supply and demand.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Continues to Trade in a Narrow Range with Low Volume Before the Holiday, AI Sentiment Recovery Drives Prices to Hold Up Slightly Stronger]

Raw material side, spot lithium carbonate prices started to rise continuously this week, while cobalt sulphate and nickel sulphate prices remained stable.

Today in North China, spot #1 copper cathode prices against the front-month contract were at a discount of 380-160 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 270 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. Transaction prices ranged from 101,560 to 102,100 yuan/mt, with an average of 101,830 yuan/mt, up 735 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Spot premiums/discounts are still expected to face downward pressure. As the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, market participation continues to decline, with most suppliers and downstream enterprises gradually entering the holiday period, resulting in sluggish overall trading activity during the day. On the supply side, price-ratio cargoes locked in during the previous period of open import arbitrage windows are continuously arriving at ports, leading to significant inventory buildup in the Shanghai area during the day. On the demand side, downstream enterprises have generally begun their holidays due to the approaching festival, causing procurement demand to weaken further. Overall, the market is expected to remain sluggish, and spot discounts are projected to widen further tomorrow.

[Gearing Up for 2026! Magnesium Market Wraps Up a Stable January, Nearly 300,000 mt of Additional Demand to Boost Industry's New Prosperity] The magnesium market's performance for the year has now concluded. Price fluctuations in the magnesium market during 2025 may not have stood out among nonferrous metals, but it is precisely this past stability that is expected to foster the potential for nearly 300,000 mt of additional magnesium alloy demand growth in 2026. The magnesium metal market in 2026 is set to embark on a year of prosperity, marking a crucial step toward a thriving future. The industry is poised to write a new chapter of growth, which is highly anticipated across the sector. As we bid farewell to the old and welcome the new, on behalf of the SMM Magnesium Team, I would like to extend our sincerest gratitude to colleagues in the industry, magnesium enterprise partners, experts, and scholars who have long cared for and supported SMM. Wishing everyone a prosperous New Year, immediate success, abundant wealth, and lasting good fortune!

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Pull Back Again, Stainless Steel Spot Market Trading Halts Pre-Holiday SMM, February 12: SS futures ended their previous strengthening trend and fluctuated downward during the day, closing at 13,970 yuan/mt. In the spot market, despite intra-week fluctuations in futures and rising high-grade NPI prices, most spot traders were already on holiday, logistics were suspended, and prices saw little significant change, with daily quotations remaining stable. The most-traded SS futures contract fell. At 10:30 a.m., the SS2604 contract was quoted at 14,080 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, the spot premium/discount for 304/2B was in the range of 90–290 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was 8,500 yuan/mt; the average price of cold-rolled edged 304/2B coil was 14,100 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 14,050 yuan/mt in Foshan; the price of cold-rolled 316L/2B coil was 26,600 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 26,600 yuan/mt in Foshan; the price of hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil was 25,750 yuan/mt in Wuxi; the price of cold-rolled 430/2B coil was 7,800 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan. On the futures side, driven by weakening macro influences and narrowing fluctuations in nonferrous metal futures, the market showed a relatively stable fluctuation trend at the beginning of the week, with trading activity pulling back. As the Chinese New Year holiday approached, market participants adopted a wait-and-see attitude due to risk aversion and the fact that previous bullish factors had largely been realized. Mid-week, stimulated by news of Indonesian nickel mine approvals being finalized, SHFE nickel futures…