The overseas secondary aluminum market continues to exhibit structural divergence. Elevated scrap prices provide strong cost support, but cautious downstream procurement and weak transaction follow-through are dampening demand-side momentum. As a result, prices remain firm while trading activity stays subdued.【SMM Analysis】

[SMM Nickel Flash] April 21, supply side, upstream suppliers continued to raise their offer prices, with a clear willingness to hold prices firm. Demand side, some steel mills made just-in-time procurement, and a small volume of transactions were concluded at high prices in the market. Overall, divergence between upstream and downstream participants persisted in the market. Supported by rigid supply-demand and cost fundamentals, the price center maintained an upward trend.

[SMM Daily Comment: Market Analysis Re-emerged, High-Grade NPI Prices Held Steady] April 20 — SMM high-grade NPI upstream sentiment factor was 3.03, up 0.03 MoM, and the high-grade NPI downstream sentiment factor was 1.83, up 0.03 MoM.

Entering the second half of March, regional divergence in China’s aluminum market became increasingly pronounced, with the divergence between inventory trends and spot price spreads in east China and south China intensifying. On the one hand, the nationwide post-holiday inventory buildup in aluminum gradually approached its end, inventory overhang pressure in east China continued to ease, circulation efficiency steadily improved, the inventory buildup momentum slowed down significantly, and.....

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Futures Prices Retreated After a Rapid Rise, and Market Divergence Intensified at High Levels] Overnight, the aluminum alloy 2604 contract opened higher and then fluctuated downward, opening at 23,770 yuan/mt, rising to 23,820 yuan/mt during the session, and then pulling back under pressure to a low of 23,525 yuan/mt before closing at 23,645 yuan/mt late in the session, down 80 yuan/mt from the previous settlement price, a decline of 0.34. Open interest edged up by 6 lots to 5,304 lots, with trading volume at 2,417 lots. Wait-and-see sentiment remained strong among market participants, and market divergence intensified at high levels.

[SMM Titanium Spot Update: High Costs Drive a Second Titanium Dioxide Price Increase Within the Month, While Diverging Domestic and External Demand Tests the Sustainability of the Hike] In mid-March, titanium dioxide enterprises in China collectively issued a second round of price increase notices within the month, raising domestic prices by 500 yuan/mt and export prices by $100/mt, mainly because elevated sulphuric acid prices forced cost pass-through. At present, enterprises are operating at full capacity, but mediocre domestic demand and foreign trade constrained by geopolitical factors have intensified market divergence. Expectations of tighter sulphuric acid supply still support confidence to hold prices firm, but the sustainability of the price increase remains to be verified by follow-up demand.

This week，the solid-state battery industry showed a dual-engine momentum driven by "intensive breakthroughs on the technology front and targeted solutions on the policy front." CATL disclosed a sulphide patent, Zhongkeyuanben's 20Ah all-solid-state battery passed third-party detection, and Dreame Technology released a 450Wh/kg product; Guangdong took the lead in incorporating diversified solid-state battery technology routes and eVTOL scenarios into provincial-level action plans.

This week，the solid-state battery industry showed a dual-engine momentum driven by "intensive breakthroughs on the technology front and targeted solutions on the policy front." CATL disclosed a sulphide patent, Zhongkeyuanben's 20Ah all-solid-state battery passed third-party detection, and Dreame Technology released a 450Wh/kg product; Guangdong took the lead in incorporating diversified solid-state battery technology routes and eVTOL scenarios into provincial-level action plans.

The market fluctuated and rebounded throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. Trading volume on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges reached 1.22 trillion yuan, a decrease of 252.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. On the futures market, hot topics rotated rapidly, with more stocks rising than falling. Over 3,500 stocks across the market advanced. In terms of sectors, the IP economy concept remained strong throughout the day, with multiple stocks such as Enlight Media hitting the daily limit. The stablecoin concept strengthened again, with stocks like GCL New Energy Holdings and Hundsun Technologies hitting the daily limit. The chemical sector remained active, with stocks like Jinniu Chemical hitting the daily limit. On the downside, the football concept experienced volatile adjustments, with Gongchuang Lawn approaching the daily limit down. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.35%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.66%. Sector-wise In the sector, stablecoin concept stocks strengthened further in the afternoon, with stocks like Insigma Technology, Tiansun Technology, Hundsun Technologies, Hengbao, China Finance Online, and Oceanpayment hitting the daily limit. Stocks like Lakala and Feitian Technologies rose over 10%. On the news front, Financial Secretary of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government Paul Chan Mo-po recently wrote that after the Stablecoin Ordinance comes into effect, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority will process license applications as soon as possible to allow eligible applicants to commence their businesses. Additionally, Walmart, the largest retailer in the US, and Amazon, the largest e-commerce platform in the US, have recently been exploring the possibility of issuing stablecoins in the US. This, combined with the continuous surge in Circle, a stablecoin concept stock listed on the US stock market, has also catalyzed positive sentiment for A-shares. However, after the overall volume surge in the stablecoin sector, it remains noteworthy whether there will be sufficient capital inflows to support the sector tomorrow. If the sector can maintain its upward momentum or complete a transition from divergence to consensus within the day, its short-term position may be further strengthened. Conversely, if it returns to consolidation after a sentiment peak, it should be viewed from the perspective of topic rotation, with a focus on front-line core stocks at that time. The IP economy concept remained strong throughout the day, with stocks like Enlight Media, GaoLe, Cuihua Jewelry, Yuanlong Yatu, and Dazzle Fashion hitting the daily limit. Stocks like Rastar Group, Jinghua Laser, Kingwin Laser, and Bona Film Group led the gains. On the news front, on the IP side, Labubu has gone viral globally, with the overseas expansion of domestic cultural IPs exceeding expectations. Industry insiders commented that its popularity is another vivid manifestation of Chinese creativity and innovative products gaining global recognition. Huachuang Securities remains bullish on the high-growth development of China's IP industry and the progress of cultural exports in the long term. From a market perspective, the overall position of IP economy concept stocks has already risen significantly after the hype. Therefore, amid intensifying market divergence, fluctuations in related stocks during the trading day may be more pronounced. However, as long as the medium-term trend remains intact, the overall risk is relatively controllable. In addition, the market's recent speculation on the IP economy has gradually extended to sub-sectors such as film and television, gaming, and even 3D printing. Therefore, attention can still be paid to the rebound opportunities of newly strengthened stocks in lower-tier sub-sectors. Regarding individual stocks From the perspective of individual stocks, although short-term sentiment showed some recovery today, the feedback from high-level consecutive limit-up stocks remained relatively average. As of the close, only Yuanlong Yatu remained among the stocks with more than two consecutive limit-ups today. However, stocks like Beikong Technology, Nanhua Futures, Yiming Pharmaceutical, and Hengbao Co., although unable to maintain consecutive limit-ups, still managed to sustain a strong upward structure after breaking the streak. Therefore, in terms of the current speculative style, funds are no longer confined to pure consecutive limit-up strategies but are engaging in trend-based speculation combined with industry logic. On the other hand, the number of stocks with two consecutive limit-ups today increased to 16, mainly focusing on sectors such as oil and gas, IP economy, stablecoins, and chemicals. Therefore, which stocks can stand out in the future will also be a key focus, as the themes behind them may still hold certain rebound opportunities. Market Outlook Analysis The market rebounded with fluctuations today, with all three major indices closing in the green and more stocks rising than falling. This reflects that, after last Friday's high-volume adjustment, the market still possesses considerable momentum. However, it is worth noting that today's trading volume shrank significantly (a single-day decrease of over 250 billion yuan). Combined with the recent week's trend of "volume increases during declines and shrinks during rebounds," the market will need to confirm a renewed strength by breaking above the 5-day moving average with increased volume. From the perspective of the futures market, as repeatedly emphasized recently, the current hot topics continue to rotate rapidly, making it difficult for the market to form sufficient buying momentum. Therefore, to further enhance the profitability of the futures market, a more defined leading theme is needed to elevate the market's potential. Market News Focus 1. Goldman Sachs Turns Bullish Again: Global Funds Returning to China, Favoring China's "Top Ten" Stocks According to a report by CLS on June 16, Goldman Sachs' Chief China Equity Strategist, Kenneth Lau, recently released a research report titled "The Return of Chinese Private Enterprises: The Tide Has Turned." Lau pointed out that driven by various macro, policy, and micro factors, the medium-term investment outlook for Chinese private enterprises is improving. Goldman Sachs also emulated the "Magnificent Seven" of U.S. stocks and listed China's "Top Ten," which are the ten Chinese private publicly listed firms that Goldman Sachs particularly favors. They are Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, BYD, Meituan, NetEase, Midea, Hengrui Medicine, Trip.com, and Anta. The combined market capitalization of the aforementioned ten companies reached US$1.6 trillion, accounting for 42% of the MSCI China Index's weight, with daily trading volume reaching US$11 billion. Goldman Sachs analysts forecast that the earnings of the "Big Ten" will increase by 13% (compound annual growth rate) over the next two years, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 16x. The "Big Ten" will collectively embody the latest economic themes in China, including AI/technology development, "going global," new consumption trends, and enhancing shareholder returns. Additionally, Liu Jinjin specifically noted that investing in private enterprises does not mean excluding state-owned enterprises—Goldman Sachs reiterated its preference for a combination of "high-quality" Chinese state-owned enterprises and shareholder returns. 2. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Industrial Added Value Above Designated Size Grew 5.8% YoY in Real Terms in May Caijing News on June 16: Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in May, the industrial added value above designated size grew 5.8% YoY in real terms. On a MoM basis, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 0.61% in May compared to the previous month. From January to May, the industrial added value above designated size grew 6.3% YoY.

June 3, 2025 News: Today, warrant prices ranged from $80 to $90/mt, with a QP in June. The average price fell by $1/mt compared to the previous trading day. B/L prices ranged from $86 to $114/mt, with a QP in July. The average price remained unchanged compared to the previous trading day. EQ copper (CIF B/L) prices ranged from $46 to $60/mt, with a QP in July. The average price fell by $2/mt compared to the previous trading day. Quotations referenced cargoes expected to arrive in mid-to-late June. There was a significant amount of market activity during the day, with holders showing a strong inclination to liquidate their positions. Premiums for domestic warehouse B/Ls and EQ B/Ls both declined sharply, while only non-domestic registered brands maintained firm premiums in the market. It was heard that among traders, domestic pyrometallurgy B/L offers were around $85 in mid-June, with transactions closing at $75-80/mt, QP in July. General pyrometallurgy transactions closed at $110-120/mt, QP in July. Domestic warrant offers were around $80, QP in June-July, with counteroffers heard at $40, QP in July. EQ B/L offers for cargoes expected to arrive in early June were quoted at $50-60/mt, QP in June. There were significant differences in buyer counteroffers, making it difficult to close deals. Overall, the market was actively selling, and EQ copper premiums declined more than expected. Market differentiation was evident.