The global aluminum market is currently characterized by a distinct divergence between overseas and domestic markets. Overseas markets have performed strongly amid supply-side disruptions, while the domestic market has also strengthened due to similar supply disturbances but remained relatively weak compared with the LME. Details on supply, demand, trade and market structure are as follows: I. Overseas Aluminum Market: Prominent Supply Tightness and Sustained Pressure on Inventories The core contradiction in overseas aluminum markets lies in supply contraction and low inventory levels, exacerbated by geopolitical conflicts, further intensifying supply tightness. In terms of LME inventory data, current inventories remain on a continuous downward trend, greatly weakening their supportive role in the market. Historically and recently, LME cancelled warrants peaked at 178,000 tonnes earlier, accounting for 39% of total inventory. As a result, the effectively available LME inventory has dropped to its lowest level since May 2025, further highlighting tight overseas supply. Supply contraction has widened the market deficit, with production cuts at two key projects—EGA and Alba—having a particularly significant impact.On March 28, EGA’s Al Taweelah smelter in the UAE and Alba’s plant in Bahrain were attacked, causing equipment damage and sharply raising risks of capacity disruptions. This came on top of earlier disruptions: March 15: Alba reduced output at three production lines due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz; March 12: Qatar’s Qatalum smelter suspended 40% of capacity due to natural gas supply cuts. Overseas primary aluminum supply deficits are expected to continue widening. Meanwhile, high energy costs in Europe have also reduced local semi-fabricated aluminum output, further tightening supply. Supply tightness has directly driven a sharp rise in overseas spot premiums. Amid supply concerns from escalating Middle East geopolitical conflicts, the Q2 MJP premium rose by approximately USD 156.5/t to USD 351.5/t. Specifically, major regional premiums rose markedly at end-March: CIF South Korea: from USD 168/t (early March) to USD 292/t; CIF Thailand: from USD 183/t to USD 317/t; European Duty Unpaid: from USD 345/t to USD 400/t; US Midwest DDP: from 103.75 cents/lb to 105.5 cents/lb. This fully reflects that expectations of tight primary aluminum supply have enabled sellers to push up quotations. Downstream demand and purchasing patterns vary significantly across regions: South Korea: Phase-wise restocking completed; weak downstream restocking sentiment, limited demand support. Southeast Asia: Dominated by term contract execution with limited spot restocking; insufficient incremental buying momentum. Europe: Rising supply shortage concerns amid production cuts in Qatar and Bahrain; downstream restocking underway, relatively strong demand. United States: Low inventories entering a restocking cycle, providing moderate market support. II. Domestic Aluminum Market: High Inventory Pressure, Weak and Constrained Demand In contrast to strong overseas markets, the domestic aluminum market has strengthened amid supply disruptions but underperformed relative to the LME, characterized by high inventories and constrained demand. High domestic aluminum prices have continued to suppress downstream purchasing. Current buying is mainly order-based rigid demand, with low willingness for active restocking, providing limited upward support. Domestic inventory pressure has not eased effectively: primary aluminum inventories remain elevated, and inventory destocking has progressed slower than expected, likely prolonging the digestion period.High inventories and high prices form dual constraints. Although the domestic market has upward momentum, it is weaker than overseas. Domestic spot premiums are expected to remain under pressure and further widen in the short term.

Middle East tensions have sparked a massive steel trade "mismatch." Iran's blocked exports created a 2.3-million-ton billet vacuum in Southeast Asia, while the Red Sea crisis stalled China's flat steel shipments to the Gulf. Consequently, China and India are rapidly absorbing SEA's diverted billet orders. SMM projects that blocked flat steel returning to China's domestic market, combined with surging overseas billet demand, will accelerate the narrowing of the domestic HRC-rebar spread.

UBS has significantly raised its copper price outlook in a recent report, increasing its long-term price forecast by $500 per metric ton. The bank now expects copper prices to reach $15,000 per metric ton by the end of March 2027. It maintains a positive view on the copper market and advises investors to hold long positions. At the same time, UBS has updated its supply and demand forecasts. It has slightly lowered its 2025 copper market deficit projection to 200,000 metric tons but sharply raised its 2026 deficit estimate from 407,000 to 520,000 metric tons. The bank believes this widening supply gap will support elevated copper prices through 2026.

(Washington, D.C. – February 10, 2026) After posting its strongest annual performance since 1979 last year, silver prices continued to set new highs in 2026, fueled by rising investor interest.

【SMM Flash: US May Impose Tariffs on Imported Copper, Glencore's Smelter Suspends Operations, COMEX Copper Hits Record High】Reports suggest that US President Trump may impose tariffs on imported copper within weeks, intensifying market concerns over potential US tariff hikes on copper. This, coupled with Glencore's suspension of operations at its Altonorte smelter in Chile, has heightened market sentiment regarding supply disruptions. After reaching a record high during the March 25 session, COMEX copper once again hit a new peak during the March 26 session. As of approximately 11:06 on March 26, COMEX copper rose 1.19% to $5.2725/lb, with an intraday record high of $5.3740/lb. LME copper fell 0.67% to $10,044/mt, with the price spread between COMEX copper and LME copper reaching as high as $1,580. SHFE copper increased 0.8% to 82,370 yuan/mt.

JPMorgan Remains Bullish on Global Copper Prices Due to Expected Demand Increase. On Monday, March 24, JPMorgan expressed optimism about the global copper market, forecasting that copper demand will continue to grow through 2025. The firm's global metals and mining team noted that LME copper futures have risen 15% year-to-date, reaching approximately $10,000 per mt.