SMM, Aug 14: Pr-Nd metal prices fell 1.13% this week but rebounded near the weekend to RMB 875,000/mt. Higher Pr-Nd oxide prices offered support, while volatile raw material costs kept some producers cautious. Net profit rose to RMB 2,574/mt, ending three weeks of losses. Downstream demand remained weak, but orders may improve as motor makers resume operations and the peak season approaches. Restocking could support prices, though gains depend on demand recovery and new oxide capacity.

During the first half of August, the domestic spent battery cell market exhibited a pattern of price divergence and sluggish trading activity.

On August 13, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) came in at -$175.37/dmt, down $1.46/dmt from -$173.91/dmt in the previous period. The payable indicator for 20% grade domestic trade ore was reported at 98.5%-99.5%. Spot market activity this week declined WoW, with some mines launching tenders. Spot transaction side, a trader sold 10,000 mt of Carmen at an index deduction of $25/dmt, for September shipment, QP: M+1/M+5, with the additional term that Ag below 20g is payable at 65%; a trader sold 10,000 mt of South American clean ore at an index deduction of $23/dmt, for October shipment, QP: M+1/M+5; a trader sold 10,000-20,000 mt of Erdenet at an index deduction of $20/dmt; two other traders offered clean ore at index deductions of $24-25/dmt, for shipment from September to October; in addition, market talk indicated that a trader sold copper concentrates to a smelter at a fixed level of -$180/dmt. Mine tender side, for the previously tendered September high-arsenic ore, the transaction price on the trader side was -$260/dmt, QP: M+1/M+4, with 0.6-1g gold not payable; tenders are underway for 10,000 mt of Mantoverde for September shipment and 10,000 mt of Timok for shipment from September to October, and for 10,000 mt each of September and October BVC; tender results remain unknown. At present, against the backdrop of continued declines in the imported copper concentrate index and further widening of spot transaction deductions, some smelters have become less willing to accept pricing at index deductions of $20/dmt or above and have begun to negotiate based on fixed TCs; suppliers, however, still prefer to quote on an index deduction basis. Divergence between buyers and sellers over pricing benchmarks and reasonable deduction levels has widened, and progress on spot transactions has turned more cautious overall. Cochilco recently lowered its 2026 Chilean copper production forecast to 5.27 million mt Cu, down 2.6% YoY, mainly due to lower grades at large mines in H1, maintenance, slower project ramp-ups, and operating constraints. From January to June 2026, China imported 4.2808 million mt of copper concentrates from Chile, down 8.26% YoY, with the import share falling to 29.3%; the supply contribution of Chilean material to the Chinese market weakened on a phased basis. However, most miners are maintaining their full-year production guidance, mainly counting on a recovery in H2 driven by the switch to higher-grade ore sections, completion of maintenance, and project ramp-ups. Expectations for the restart of First Quantum's Cobre Panamá copper mine have increased. Panama’s Minister of Commerce and Industry, Julio Moltó, recently visited Donoso, Omar Torrijos Herrera, and La Pintada, where he met with mine workers, local governments, and suppliers; the relevant recommendations will be submitted to an inter-agency committee for evaluation. The mine is currently authorized to process stockpiled ore and has supported around 3,200 direct jobs and more than 3,000 indirect jobs. As of end-June, First Quantum had processed 2.1 million mt of stockpiled ore and produced about 3,200 mt of contained copper, with the first shipment expected to take place this month. A molten material leak incident occurred at the converter (C-Furnace) of PT Smelting's copper smelter in Gresik, East Java. Currently, there is no clear expectation for when the damaged equipment can return to service, and repairs are expected to take at least several weeks. Due to low in-plant copper anode inventory, the smelting outage has directly affected metal production on the refining side. Copper cathode shipments are expected to be disrupted in the coming weeks, and the plant is negotiating delayed deliveries with clients. In terms of capacity, PT Smelting Gresik has smelting capacity to process approximately 1.3 million dmt of copper concentrates per year, and its refining side has copper cathode capacity of 342,000 mt/year. According to Freeport-McMoRan's annual report, in 2025 the plant produced 230,300 mt of copper anode and 207,200 mt of copper cathode; due to raw material supply disruptions and maintenance, these were significantly lower than the 398,200 mt of copper anode and 335,200 mt of copper cathode in 2024. On August 14, 2026, SMM recorded copper concentrate inventories at 11 ports totaling 770,000 mt in physical content, up 78,000 mt in physical content from August 7. The main increases came from Qingdao Port, Fangchenggang Port, and Yantai Port, with respective WoW increases of 30,000 mt, 20,000 mt, and 23,000 mt; the main decrease came from Nanjing Port, down 10,000 mt WoW.

On August 14, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price declined.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Review] Coking Coal Market: Linfen low-sulphur coking coal was quoted at 2,010 yuan/mt. For coking coal, safety inspections at coal mines in Shanxi and Shaanxi were strictly enforced, and the pace of production resumption fell short of market expectations, providing strong support for coking coal prices. The overall sentiment in online auctions improved, and market activity increased noticeably. In the short term, the coking coal market is likely to consolidate on a strong note. Coke Market: The nationwide average price of dry-quenched quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke was 1,925 yuan/mt. Supply side, coking coal prices remain firm, causing significant losses for coke producers and prompting voluntary production restrictions; coke supply has contracted. Demand side, some steel mills have expectations of blast furnace production resumptions, and rigid demand for coke is expected to increase. In addition, coke inventories at some steel mills are at low levels, and buying interest has picked up. However, end-user demand for finished steel has not changed materially, and steel mills are not yet ready to accept higher coke prices. In summary, under the combined effect of cost support and recovering rigid demand, some coke producers have already begun preparing for the first round of price increases. [SMM Steel]

[India] The Indian domestic steel market showed a mildly positive but cautious sentiment on Thursday. Prices edged higher in Mandi Gobindgarh, while Mumbai remained relatively stable, indicating limited improvement in market activity. Buying interest remains cautious with monsoon conditions continuing to weigh on construction demand. In northern Mandi Gobindgarh, HMS 1&2 (80:20) edged up by at 2.10USD/tonne delivered Mandi to (33,900 INR/tonne). Billet prices up 1.05USD/tonne delivered Mandi to (42,400INR/tonne). Meanwhile, Mumbai HMS 1&2 (80:20) unchanged delivered Mumbai (31,000INR/tonne). Rebar prices up 1.05USD/tonne delivered Mumbai to (47,200INR/tonne).

On August 13, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price declined.

The most-traded hot-rolled coil futures contract rose initially then fell back today, closing at 3,239, up 0.19% day-on-day. Supply side, the impact from hot rolling maintenance this week was 216,000 mt, down 39,900 mt WoW. Next week, the impact from hot rolling maintenance is expected to be 116,100 mt, down 99,800 mt WoW, but production remained relatively low. Demand side, the off-season saw end-users mainly trading at low prices, with market activity weaker than the previous trading day. Raw material side, hot metal essentially hit bottom and is expected to rebound slightly afterward. Combined with the approaching delivery of near-month coking coal and coke contracts, the tight spot supply will lead to stronger futures performance, and the cost support from coking coal and coke remains intact. Affected by the typhoon, inventories in some markets were destocking this week, but the sustainability is expected to be limited. Looking ahead, as sheets & plates themselves remain in the off-season, this will limit the rebound height. However, considering that cost support from below is solidified in the short term, sheets & plates are expected to consolidate on a strong note.

Entering Q3, the battery-grade nickel sulphate spot market appears to be "losing vitality," with reduced transaction frequency and relatively weak price trends. SMM believes this is primarily driven by a combination of three factors: weakening cost support, a gradually loosening supply-demand pattern, and a shift in market structure. This article will discuss these three factors in detail. I. Cost Side: Weakening Nickel Prices and Raw Materials Together In terms of nickel prices, August marks the period for the release of additional quotas in Indonesia, which has tempered market expectations of a significant shortage of Indonesian nickel ore. Coupled with the ongoing "shadow" of macroeconomic interest rate hikes, nickel prices have weakened. On the MHP payables front, following the concentrated arrival of sulphur in Indonesia, the supply of Indonesian intermediate products is expected to continue rising. According to SMM data, Indonesia's MHP supply-demand balance turned positive in July for the first time in a month. Meanwhile, downstream nickel and cobalt salt prices (especially cobalt salts) remain relatively weak, and downstream players are under pressure from losses, showing lower acceptance of high payables. Consequently, MHP payables remain under pressure overall. The market availability of high-grade nickel matte remains tight, and its payables are expected to hold steady. With both nickel prices and raw material payables declining, the spot production cost of nickel sulphate in August is expected to weaken overall from a spot cost perspective. II. Supply Side: High Raw Material Flexibility, Production Schedules Expected to Rise Since Q2, although MHP production schedules fell sharply at one point, nickel sulphate supply levels remained relatively stable, and no prolonged undersupply emerged. In Q3, as intermediate product production schedules gradually recover, this trend is expected to become more pronounced. According to SMM data, while battery-grade nickel sulphate production in July dipped 2% MoM due to production cuts or maintenance at some salt plants, August output is expected to rise over 8% MoM, returning supply to high levels. Total battery-grade nickel sulphate production from January to August 2026 grew 33% YoY. Behind this steady output lies strong supply flexibility in nickel salt raw materials. In addition to the adjustments using refined nickel raw materials and the substitution between high-grade nickel matte and MHP discussed in previous articles, recycled materials have also contributed a significant supply scale for nickel sulphate this year. On the one hand, after China opened up imports of lithium battery black mass last year, recycled raw materials have been able to be imported steadily, providing incremental raw material for recycled nickel sulphate. On the other hand, as the scale of ternary battery decommissioning gradually expands, and with some companies launching new recycling projects this year, the overall supply scale of black mass in the industry has risen. According to SMM data, the output from pulverising scrap ternary batteries in July doubled compared to the same period last year, providing significant flexibility for nickel sulphate supply. III. Demand Side: NMC Demand Supports Overall Consumption Volume but Fails to Directly Drive External Spot Purchases NMC demand exceeded expectations this year, serving as a key reason nickel sulphate maintained a relatively high premium. Consumption of nickel sulphate by downstream enterprises is expected to remain elevated in Q3. On one hand, with the September-October peak season for auto sales approaching, top-tier downstream players hold favorable demand expectations for mid-to-high nickel materials, driving higher production schedules at associated precursor plants. On the other hand, overseas high-nickel orders secured by leading firms have also stayed at high levels, supported by robust demand in Europe and other regions and by installation rush strategies triggered by adjustments to battery cell export tax rebate policies. According to SMM data, demand for battery-grade nickel sulphate in the new energy sector rose 1.55% MoM in July and is expected to grow a further 0.9% in August. However, the top-tier precursor enterprises with relatively strong orders are highly integrated, with several possessing refined nickel production capacity and ample flexibility to adjust in-house nickel sulphate output. As a result, the downstream demand increase provides limited direct stimulus to spot nickel sulphate procurement. According to SMM data, the combined production schedule of the five leading integrated and semi-integrated enterprises rose 11% MoM in August, and in-house output can meet over 80% of their raw material needs, meaning the incremental demand for externally purchased nickel sulphate was not significant. IV. Market Structure: Expanding Long-Term Contract Scale Squeezes Spot Order Space A notable structural shift in the Q3 nickel sulphate market is the expansion in the scale of long-term contracts. SMM estimates show that monthly spot orders for nickel sulphate stood at roughly 3,500-4,500 mt in metal content in 2025 and Q1 this year. Against the backdrop of rising NMC demand, this scale has shrunk to around 2,000 mt in metal content in Q3. At the start of the quarter, spot orders were expected to gradually retreat from monthly just-in-time procurement to a supplementary role for long-term contracts in corporate purchasing strategies, with additional purchases made only when clear downstream demand increments or raw material supply disruptions occur. This has suppressed market activity in August and early September. Moreover, with no significant decline in nickel sulphate supply, downstream acceptance of spot prices remains generally low. The expansion of long-term contracts stems from two factors. First, the high volatility in nickel prices and raw materials this year has intensified decision-making pressure on enterprises for spot orders, prompting a tendency to lock in demand through long-term contracts. Second, after persistent overcapacity, few new entrants have emerged, and industry supply chains have stabilized, with upstream and downstream enterprises gradually forming steady cooperative relationships. In the long term, the overall scale of long-term contracts is still expected to trend upward. V. Market Outlook As mentioned above, the supply and demand of nickel sulphate spot orders has shifted from relative tightness in Q2 to a slight surplus. From August to early September, prices are expected to be generally in the doldrums; after the downstream demand for the 'September-October peak season' becomes clear in September, the spot order market activity may recover to some extent, driving a rebound in nickel sulphate prices.

SMM News on August 12: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market rose almost across the board. SHFE copper rose 0.27%, and SHFE aluminum rose 0.93%. SHFE lead rose 0.25%. SHFE zinc rose 0.7%. SHFE tin rose 1.44%. SHFE nickel fell 0.16%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.74%, and the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.93%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 2.97%. The most-traded silicon metal contract edged up. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 3.69%. Ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore rose 0.28%, rebar rose 0.37%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.34%. Stainless steel rose 0.24%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 2.17%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.75%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:46, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 0.27%, and LME tin rose 1.14%. LME zinc rose 0.5%. Gains in LME aluminum, LME lead, and LME nickel were all within 0.3%. Precious metals: as of 11:46, COMEX gold rose 0.54%, and COMEX silver rose 1.12%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.69%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.22%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 0.18%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 1.09%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping contract rose 1.44% to 1,585.5 points. As of 11:46 on August 12, midday moves in some futures: Spot and Fundamentals Aluminum: Today, futures continued to surge, while the spot market in South China faced pressure from the “three mountains.” First, high absolute prices combined with high premiums in reality prompted suppliers to rush to sell more to cash out... Macro front China: [PBOC reverse repo operations recorded a net withdrawal of 5 billion yuan on the day] The PBOC conducted no reverse repo operations today. As 5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, it recorded a net withdrawal of 5 billion yuan on the day. [Guangdong power load hit a new high for the fourth time this year] At 13:47 on August 11, power load on the Guangdong power grid hit a new high for the fourth time this year, reaching 175.7 million kW, up 6.53% YoY. At present, Guangdong’s power supply is stable and orderly. On the same day, loads in cities including Yangjiang, Shantou, Jieyang, and Chaozhou within Guangdong Province hit record highs. ​​​(Guangdong Fabu) [C919 domestically produced large aircraft officially began operating international commercial routes] Starting today (the 12th), Air China’s Beijing–Ulaanbaatar route to the capital of Mongolia will be operated by the domestically produced C919 large aircraft, marking the official launch of international scheduled commercial route operations for the domestically produced large aircraft. (CCTV News) US dollar: As of 11:46, the US dollar index rose 0.05% to 99.87. The market awaits the upcoming US July CPI data, hoping to find clues on the Fed's rate path. According to CME "Fed Watch": the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in September is 52.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 48.0%. The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in October is 38.7%, a cumulative 25bp hike is 49.0%, and a cumulative 50bp hike is 12.2%. (Jinshi Data APP) The Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos said that the market will focus on the MoM change in the July inflation data to be released on Wednesday, as an increasing number of FOMC members indicate that inflation readings in the coming months will determine whether they believe the forecast of "inflation pulling back to 2% over the next two years" remains achievable without further rate hikes. Meanwhile, the Fed's new chair Warsh recently dismissed this framework of linking policy-sensitive forecast revisions to high-frequency data. He previously stated that he does not believe the Fed's current "data-dependent" policy has much practical value. Furthermore, Nick added that the working group established by Warsh seems in part to help construct a framework to replace the old one. However, until the new framework is clear, the old framework appears to remain in operation. Glenmede strategists said regarding the US July CPI that investors are anticipating another relatively mild inflation report, with headline CPI expected to rise 3.4% YoY, while core price pressures remain manageable. As US-Iran tensions escalate, oil prices rose further in July, and the energy sector could once again bring pressure. However, the market reaction this time has been more stable, thanks to proactive measures and strategic reserve releases that maintained oil supply stability. The Fed has ample time before its next meeting to assess two inflation reports, giving it more time to evaluate whether energy pressures remain contained or begin to broaden, a distinction that could well influence future policy direction. Other currencies: According to foreign media reports, yen traders are ramping up options market activity ahead of key US inflation data, and amid a lack of consensus on the yen's future direction, they are using derivatives to enhance trading flexibility. The one-week implied volatility for USD/JPY rose for a second straight session on Wednesday, after the gauge had declined for five consecutive sessions. The reason was that traders were positioning ahead of the release of the US inflation report. The data was expected to influence the US Fed's monetary policy outlook and the US dollar's trajectory. Additionally, volatility in longer-dated options also edged up. The rise in volatility reflected a divergence in market views. For short tenors, the market remained concerned about the possibility of joint US-Japan intervention in the foreign exchange market, so USD/JPY put options continued to trade at a premium over call options, showing that investors were seeking protection against a sudden drop in the exchange rate. However, over longer tenors, investors continued to buy call options to bet on a renewed rally in USD/JPY. (Jin10 Data APP) Data-wise: Figures to be released today include the US July unadjusted CPI YoY, US July seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, US July seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, US July unadjusted core CPI YoY, and Germany's July CPI MoM final reading. In addition, Tencent will hold its Q2 earnings call, MSCI will announce its August index review, the EIA will release its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, the IEA will publish its monthly Oil Market Report, and OPEC will release its monthly Oil Market Report (the specific release times for the monthly reports are to be determined, typically published around 18-21 Beijing Time). Crude oil: As of 11:46, both benchmarks rose, with WTI up 1% and Brent up 0.92%. Uncertainty over the US-Iran deal outlook supported prices. Iran’s state television (IRIB), citing an advisor to the Supreme Leader, reported: The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until relevant conditions are met. (Jin10 Data APP) Iran's Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad stated on the 11th that Iran was repairing natural gas production facilities damaged by the war, with daily capacity planned to rebound to 95 million m³ by the end of September. Paknejad said that reconstruction work on four damaged gas processing facilities was progressing rapidly, contractors had commenced work, and completion was anticipated ahead of schedule, restoring pre-war capacity. Earlier reports indicated that Iran's daily natural gas production had decreased by about 230 million m³ since the US and Israel launched military operations against Iran. (Jin10 Data APP) The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated that, due to persistently severe restrictions on crude oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz, the degree of global oil supply disruption was greater than previously expected, prompting the EIA to raise its future oil price forecasts. The EIA projects that the 2026 Brent spot price will average $87/bbl, up from the prior forecast of $82/bbl ; and that the Q3 2026 Brent average will be about $85/bbl, with prices in the coming months largely sustaining levels seen in the first week of August. EIA says its latest forecast assumes that recent threats to vessels carrying Saudi crude through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have not caused additional production halts, and severe shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz will persist into August . EIA expects that most Middle Eastern crude oil production will return close to pre-conflict average levels by early 2027. However, some supply disruptions are expected to persist until the end of 2027, at a scale of around 600,000 barrels per day. The average price for 2027 is forecast at $69/barrel, up from $65/barrel previously. (Wallstreetcn) Additionally, Russia has started importing gasoline from the distant Indian market, after Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries caused a severe domestic fuel supply shortage. According to shipping data provider Kpler, this marks the first time Russia has imported motor gasoline from a South Asian country. Kpler said the first gasoline cargo arrived on August 5, and more shipments may arrive in Russia in the future. These fuel volumes were shipped via a series of tankers linked to Russia, and were transshipped near Egyptian waters before heading to Russia. Kpler's chief analyst Sumit Ritolia said, "The emergence of Indian gasoline supply is particularly noteworthy." He said these cargoes from India, along with continued gasoline imports from Belarus and other neighboring markets, highlight the severity of the current domestic gasoline supply-demand imbalance in Russia, and also reflect how declining refinery operating rates are reshaping traditional Russian oil product trade flows. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►