Since the outbreak of the US-Iran war on February 28, 2026, financial and commodity markets have experienced a severe correction and roller-coaster ride.

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has officially declared a one-year state of national energy emergency as the administration warns of an "imminent danger" to the country’s fuel and power supplies. On Tuesday (March 24th), Energy Secretary Sharon Garin revealed that the Philippines has approximately 45 days of fuel supply remaining based on current consumption, with specific reserves of diesel and gasoline estimated to last until mid-May. Under this declaration, a specialized contingency committee will oversee the orderly distribution of fuel and basic goods while cracking down on hoarding and price manipulation. To cushion the blow of soaring prices, the government has begun distributing 5,000-peso ($83) subsidies to transport workers and providing free bus rides in key cities.

The US is expected to launch two new trade investigations into the “surplus industrial capacity” of 16 major trading partners, including China. According to officials from the Office of the United States Trade Representative, the move could trigger new tariff measures. In response, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun pointed out that the so-called “overcapacity” is utterly groundless, and that China firmly opposes using this as a pretext for political manipulation. Meanwhile, the European Commission also made its position clear: if the US takes actions that violate trade agreements, the EU will “respond firmly.”

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: The SHFE/LME Price Ratio Continued to Weaken, and Aluminum Prices Were Expected to Fluctuate at Highs in the Short Term] Against the backdrop of continued tightening LME liquidity, LME aluminum still had upward momentum, with strong support from overseas prices, and the backwardation structure was expected to persist in the short term. China was in a phase of high inventory + weak fundamentals, and its upward momentum was clearly weaker than that outside China. Amid diverging domestic and external drivers, the SHFE/LME price ratio was expected to continue weakening, and aluminum prices were expected to continue fluctuating at highs in the short term.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Weak Non-Farm Payrolls Data; LME Zinc Posted a Bullish Candlestick] Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $3,240.0/mt and dipped to $3,221.0/mt in early trading. It then saw its center fluctuate upward at a slow pace. After entering the night session, it accelerated higher and touched a high above $3,343.0/mt, finally closing up at $3,323.0/mt, up $93/mt, a gain of 2.88%. Trading volume increased to 121,000 lots, while open interest fell by 516 lots to 219,000 lots.

On June 17, 2025, the 2025 SMM (2nd) Southeast Asia Automotive Supply Chain Conference , hosted by SMM, successfully concluded at the Hyatt Regency Bangkok Sukhumvit in Bangkok, Thailand! The conference brought together experts, scholars, corporate representatives, and government officials from the domestic and overseas automotive industries to discuss new trends and models in the development of the automotive industry, share the latest technologies and innovative achievements, promote collaborative development and cooperation within the automotive industry, facilitate the improvement and enhancement of the industry chain, help Chinese automotive industry chain enterprises better understand overseas investment environments, leverage the complementary advantages of various countries and regions in the automotive industry, and jointly support the healthy and sustainable development of the automotive industry! Yossapong Laoonual, Honorary Chairman of the Electric Vehicle Association of Thailand (EVA) and Director of the Mobility and Vehicle Technology Research Center (MOVE) at King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi (KMUTT) , stated that Thailand's electric vehicle vision (the 30@30 Policy) sets an ambitious goal of achieving 30% zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) in the country's total production and 50% in newly registered vehicles by 2030. To achieve this goal, the government provides subsidies to original equipment manufacturers producing cars, pickup trucks, and motorcycles. The planned annual capacity for EVs exceeds 500,000 units, while the actual production in 2024 was 9,688 units, representing a 58-fold increase compared to the entire year of 2023. Although internal combustion engine vehicles still dominate the market, the growth rate of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) is very rapid, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 138% for BEVs from 2020 to 2024. By 2024, the market penetration rate of electric four-wheelers had reached 13%. Asst. Prof. Uthane Supatti, Ph.D., Vice Chairman of the Electric Vehicle Association of Thailand (EVAT) , stated, when referring to the development of charging infrastructure in Thailand, that after 2023, the deployment of charging piles in Thailand has reached a significant turning point. Data shows that the number of charging piles increased by an astonishing 306.2% YoY in 2023. By 2023, the number of charging piles had already surpassed the original target set for 2025. However, there is still significant room for improvement to achieve the 2030 goal, and continued efforts in construction are needed. In addition, Yao Xinying, Director of SMM Steel Product Research , released the SMM Thailand Metal Prices and Thailand Steel Prices to help enterprises identify fair prices and reduce transaction costs. She stated that the Thai manufacturing industry still faces numerous obstacles in price referencing and settlement, such as the lack of authoritative price benchmarks, low price transparency, an imperfect settlement system, and susceptibility to market manipulation. SMM, closely connected with the upstream and downstream of the Thai metal industry chain, has launched the SMM Thailand Metal Prices to facilitate market transactions. Additionally, SMM has specially designed a networking session for automakers, bringing together over a dozen well-known domestic and overseas automakers, including BYD and BMW, to provide dedicated time for supply and demand exchanges between attending guests and automakers, facilitating collaboration discussions! 》Click to view the live video of the conference 》Click to view the live photo gallery of the conference 》Click to view the special coverage of the conference Opening Remarks Speaker: Logan Lu, CEO of SMM 》Click to view details of the on-site speech Guest Speaker Session Speech Topic: Latest Policies in Southeast Asia's Automotive Industry Guest Speaker: Yossapong Laoonual, Honorary Chairman of the Electric Vehicle Association of Thailand (EVA) and Director of the Mobility and Vehicle Technology Research Center (MOVE), King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi (KMUTT) Thailand's EV Vision (30@30 Policy) Thailand's EV Vision (30@30 Policy) sets an ambitious target of achieving 30% zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) in the country's total production and 50% in new vehicle registrations by 2030. To achieve this, the government is providing subsidies to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) producing cars, pickup trucks, and motorcycles. 2024 Capacity and Market Performance The planned annual production capacity for EVs exceeds 500,000 units, with actual production in 2024 reaching 9,688 units, a 58-fold increase compared to the full year of 2023. Despite internal combustion engine vehicles still dominating the market, the growth rates of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) have been very rapid, with BEVs achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 138% from 2020 to 2024. By 2024, the market penetration rate of electric four-wheelers has reached 13%. Infrastructure Development By 2024, the ratio of electric passenger vehicles to charging stations is 28, and the number of DC charging piles has exceeded the 2025 target by 40%. These charging piles are mainly distributed in gas stations, department stores, office buildings, and other locations. Challenges Faced In Thailand's four-wheeled EV market, Chinese OEMs have already taken a dominant position and are benefiting from the 30@30 policy. To enhance the competitiveness of the local automotive industry, local auto parts suppliers should actively integrate into the global supply chain and collaborate with Chinese OEMs to improve price competitiveness and enhance technological capabilities. 》EVA Thailand Shares: Thailand's EV Outlook - Opportunities and Challenges Automotive Brand Building and Differentiation Strategies in the Southeast Asian Market Guan Xin, Deputy General Manager of Changan Automobile's Southeast Asia Division Zhang Cong, General Manager of Geely Radar Thailand Pichayuth Vongpattanasin, Vice President of Omoda&Jaecoo (Thailand) Co., Ltd. Roundtable Discussion: Pathways for Building and Optimizing Localized Supply Chains in Southeast Asia Guests: Martin Knoss, Regional President for Passenger Cars, Commercial Vehicles, and Off-Road Vehicles in the ASEAN Market Segment, Powertrain Solutions Division, Robert Bosch Automotive Technology (Thailand) Co., Ltd. Peter Klöpfer, Senior Manager, Rutronik Yoshinobu Egawa, Head of China Region, SIIX Corporation Ma Ming, General Manager, Joyson Safety Systems (Thailand) Guan Xin, Deputy General Manager of Changan Automobile's Southeast Asia Division Speech Topic: SMM Thailand Metal Price Launch & Thailand Steel Price Release - Discovering Fair Prices and Reducing Transaction Costs Guest Speaker: Yao Xinying, Director of Steel Product Research, SMM Why Launch SMM Thailand Metal Prices? The Thai manufacturing industry still faces numerous obstacles in terms of price reference and settlement. 1. Lack of an authoritative price benchmark Thailand lacks an independent third-party price publishing platform, resulting in a lack of unified and credible price reference standards for metal trading. This makes it difficult for buyers and sellers to reach fair pricing agreements, exacerbating market price confusion. 2. Low price transparency Due to the absence of professional price information disclosure channels, metal trading price data is scattered and not publicly available. Market participants are unable to obtain timely and accurate market information, increasing the difficulty of price discovery and the risk of trading decisions. 》SMM Thailand Metal Price Launch Event & Thailand Steel Price Release - Discovering Fair Prices and Reducing Trading Costs Roundtable Discussion: Southeast Asia Automotive Supply Chain - Import and Local Matters (Services, Prices, Landing Support Possibilities) Dong Rujun, Senior Overseas Market Manager, SMM Wu Zhengguo, Operations Director, Taichengfa Co., Ltd. Wu Zhongxian, Deputy General Manager, International Trade Company, CITIC Pacific Special Steel Group Co., Ltd. Bai He, General Manager, RTM International Aluminum Division, Mitsubishi Corporation Yingzhang Liang, Head of Sustainability, Metals & Mining, Asia Pacific, Bloomberg Intelligence Shine Peng, Sales General Manager, FedEx Speech Topic: Accelerating the Development of Thailand's EV Ecosystem Guest Speaker: Asst. Prof. Uthane Supatti Ph.D., Vice Chairman, Electric Vehicle Association of Thailand (EVAT) Transformation of Transportation Modes in Thailand Traditional transportation modes include speedboats, traditional buses, and traditional trains. After improvements, electric taxis, electric buses, and electric motorbike taxis have emerged. Following electrification development, subways, trams, and electric boats have also come into people's view. Thailand's EV Vision - The "30@30" Policy Thailand has set EV adoption and production targets for 2025 and 2030. By 2030, the following goals will be achieved: zero-emission vehicles will account for 30% of Thailand's total vehicle production; zero-emission vehicles will account for 50% of the country's vehicle usage. Passenger Vehicle Production: As of 2024, Thailand's total sedan production reached 1,468,997 units, a YoY decrease of 20%. Among them, passenger vehicle production was 558,440 units, a YoY decrease of 13.5%. Pure electric passenger vehicle production was 9,688 units, a YoY surge of 5,807.3%. 》Current Status of Thailand's EV Industry - How to Accelerate the Development of Thailand's EV Ecosystem? Roundtable Discussion: Accelerated Electrification and Localization Progress of Core Components in Thailand Xiaolong Xu, Deputy General Manager, Inovance United Power System (Thailand) Co., Ltd. Zhibiao Fu, Plant Manager, Shanghai Edrive (Thailand) Co., Ltd. Tongkarn Kaewchalermtong, Chair of the Transport and Logistics Working Group, ASEAN Federation of Engineering Organizations (AFEO) Sizhan Chen, Chairman of the Automotive Parts Industry Association, Federation of Thai Industries, and Deputy Secretary General, Thai Auto Parts Manufacturers Association Haofeng, Business Director, Gotion High-tech (Thailand) Co., Ltd. Presentation Topic: Industrialization Breakthrough of Ultra-Thin Soft Magnetic Materials for High-Efficiency Drive Motors Guest Speaker: Lugang Zhan, Executive Deputy General Manager, Hunan Hongwang New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. (At the speaker's request, this presentation will not be publicly available) Roundtable Discussion: Charging Pile Infrastructure: Unlocking the Last Mile of Southeast Asia's New Energy Revolution Liming Zhao, Overseas Sales Director for Southeast Asia, Teld International Soravis Sithicharoen, Charging Pile Business Head, Gentari Green Mobility Thailand Chavarin Chavarangkul, Charging Pile Head and Sales Director, Innopower Company Limited Presentation Topic: Operational Status of Lithium Carbonate Futures Guest Speaker: Bing Leng, Deputy General Manager, GFEX (At the speaker's request, this presentation will not be publicly available) Presentation Topic: Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC): A Hub of Prosperity Opportunities Guest Speaker: Songwut Apirakkhit, Executive Head of Next-Generation Automotive Sector, Eastern Economic Corridor Roundtable Discussion: Investment Models in Southeast Asia: Pros and Cons of Joint Ventures and Wholly Owned Subsidiaries Weien Lin, Director and Deputy General Manager, Thai Long United Automotive Co., Ltd. Kuixian Lin, Founder of Jiahua Group and CEO of NexV, Sdn Bhd Bin Zhao, President, Thai-Chinese Rayong Industrial Zone Development Co., Ltd. June 17 Main Conference Presentation Topic: Rizhao Steel's ESP Automotive Steel Supports Green and Efficient Development in the Automotive Industry Guest Speaker: Xutao Zheng, Deputy Director of Technology and Quality Department, Technical Center Director, Rizhao Steel Holding Group Co., Ltd. (At the speaker's request, this presentation will not be publicly available) Roundtable Discussion: How Southeast Asia's Local Supply Chain Serves European and US Markets Tuan Vi, Vice President of Supply Chain and Logistics for Asia Pacific, Schaeffler Vietnam Sridhar Ramakrishna, Application and Engineering Director, Tenneco Presentation Topic: Smart Logistics Systems and Technologies Facilitating Global Supply Chain Expansion Guest Speaker: Chunlong Jin, Deputy General Manager, Shanghai Boyi International Logistics Co., Ltd. (At the speaker's request, this presentation will not be publicly available) Roundtable Discussion: Potential Synergies in Battery Cell Chemical Materials Across Southeast Asia Logan Lu, CEO, SMM Tony, General Manager, Sunwoda EV Energy (Thailand) Co., Ltd. Rui Liu, Chairman, Innovate (Malaysia) New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. Changxi Jin, Sales Director for Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, Electrolyte Division, Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co., Ltd. Shuzhan Yang, Deputy General Manager, BTR New Materials Group Co., Ltd., and Chairman, BTR Indonesia Automaker Demand Matching Session At the 2025 SMM (2nd) Southeast Asia Automotive Supply Chain Conference , SMM has specially designed a networking session for automakers, bringing together over a dozen renowned domestic and overseas automakers to provide attendees with dedicated time for supply and demand discussions and collaboration opportunities! 》Click to view the list of automakers participating in the exchange meeting Sign-in 》Click to view more highlights from the event With this, the 2025 SMM Southeast Asia (Thailand) Automotive Supply Chain Conference has come to a successful conclusion Thank you for the support of all industry colleagues See you next year! 》Click to view the special report on the 2025 SMM Southeast Asia (Thailand) Automotive Supply Chain Conference

On Friday, Mitsuhiro Furusawa, a former Japanese vice finance minister, stated that amid the narrowing trend of the interest rate gap between the US and Japan, the yen is expected to continue appreciating against the US dollar, potentially reaching around 135-140 yen per US dollar by the end of the year. Furusawa previously served as a deputy managing director at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and as Japan's vice finance minister for international affairs, making him the top official responsible for exchange rate matters in Japan. Currently, he serves as the president of the Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation's Global Financial Affairs Research Institute, maintaining close ties with current central bank policymakers in Japan and overseas. Yen Expected to Continue Appreciating The market widely speculates that Trump, who previously accused Japan of currency manipulation, will pressure the Japanese government to help weaken the US dollar against the yen to give US exports a trade advantage. However, Furusawa stated that it remains unclear whether the Trump administration will explicitly adopt a weak dollar policy. "It is not easy for policymakers to intentionally push down the dollar," Furusawa said. "After clearly stating that tariffs are the main tool (for negotiations), I believe the US government does not need to rely too much on currency to achieve its goals." Nevertheless, Furusawa noted that the US may wish to avoid further appreciation of the dollar to prevent harm to exports. Meanwhile, Japan aims to prevent excessive yen weakness from driving up inflation. "Therefore, their intentions in this regard are aligned. This suggests that the yen may gradually appreciate," he said. Additionally, the divergence in monetary policy directions between Japan and the US will also support the yen. Amid widespread market concerns about a US recession triggered by tariff shocks, there is speculation that the US Fed's next move could be an interest rate cut, while the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is currently considering further rate hikes. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently stated that if Japan's economic conditions improve and inflation continues to meet the 2% target, the central bank will proceed with rate hikes. However, he also hinted that rate hikes would need to wait until the impact of Trump's tariffs becomes clearer. "If Japan successfully reaches a broad trade agreement with the US—possibly at the G7 summit this month—it will reduce uncertainty," Furusawa said. Once real wages in Japan rise, it will support consumption. "If we see these positive developments, the BOJ may raise interest rates again in the second half of the year," Furusawa said, adding that the yen "may appreciate to around 135-140 yen per US dollar by the end of the year." As of press time this Friday, the US dollar-Japanese yen exchange rate was hovering around 144.11. Furusawa said that the Bank of Japan may ultimately want to raise its short-term policy interest rate target, currently at 0.5%, to above 1%, though success is uncertain. Japan may struggle to use US debt as a bargaining tool Japan is continuing trade negotiations with the US, with a focus on making progress on automobile tariffs. According to Japanese media reports, the two sides may seek to reach an agreement before the G7 summit on June 15-16. Last month, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said that Japan might use its holdings of over $1 trillion in US Treasury bonds as leverage in trade negotiations with the US government, a statement that caused a stir. However, Furusawa believes that as a negotiating strategy, it is reasonable for Japan to claim that "all options are on the table." But it is doubtful whether Japan can actually use US debt as a bargaining tool. He explained that part of the reason is that if Japan were to actually sell off US Treasury bonds, it could anger Trump and disrupt trade negotiations, potentially backfiring.

Overnight Stock Market Major global indices generally rose on Tuesday, with all three major US stock indices closing higher. Chip stocks surged across the board, with Nvidia rising nearly 3%, extending gains from Monday, surpassing Microsoft in market capitalization, and once again becoming the world's most valuable company. Commodity Markets WTI crude oil futures closed at $63.41 per barrel, up $0.89, or 1.42%. Brent crude oil futures closed at $65.63 per barrel, up $1, or 1.55%. COMEX gold futures closed down 0.6% at $3,376.9 per ounce. COMEX silver futures closed down 0.05% at $34.675 per ounce. Market News [South Korea's Presidential Election Voting Results Bill Passes, Lee Jae-myung's Presidency Officially Begins] At 6 a.m. local time on June 4, the National Election Commission of South Korea held a plenary session and passed the bill on the presidential election voting results, officially marking the beginning of Lee Jae-myung's presidency. Around 5:03 a.m. local time on June 4, the vote counting for South Korea's 21st presidential election concluded. According to the results, Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party of Korea received 49.42% of the votes, Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party received 41.15%, and Lee Jun-seok of the Reform and Innovation Party received 8.34%. [White House Says Trump Signed Order to Raise Steel and Aluminum Tariffs, Effective from Early Morning of June 4] The US White House issued a statement saying that President Trump had signed an order to raise tariffs on imported steel and aluminum and their derivatives from 25% to 50%, effective from 00:01 a.m. Eastern Time on the 4th. The statement indicated that tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from the UK would remain at 25%. [US Government Proposes First Spending Cut Plan, Requests Recall of $9.4 Billion] The US White House submitted a request to Congress on the same day to recall $9.4 billion in approved spending, most of which was for foreign aid. Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, stated that he had officially received the White House's request to recall $9.4 billion in wasteful foreign aid spending for organizations such as the US Agency for International Development and the Public Broadcasting Service. Mike Johnson said the House would act swiftly. It is understood that after the submission of the plan, Congress will have 45 days to process it. [Details of US-Iran Nuclear Negotiations Revealed: US Proposes Temporary Permission for Iran to Continue Uranium Enrichment] According to anonymous Iranian and European officials, the US proposed temporary measures during the US-Iran nuclear negotiations to allow Iran to continue low-enriched uranium enrichment activities while the US and other countries develop more detailed plans. The New York Times reported on the 3rd that the US and other countries will formulate a more detailed plan aimed at preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons while allowing it to obtain the fuel needed for new nuclear power plants. According to the plan, the US will assist Iran in building nuclear reactors and negotiate the construction of a uranium enrichment facility managed by a coalition of regional countries. Once Iran begins to receive the promised benefits, it must cease all uranium enrichment activities within its borders. Iranian and European officials revealed that the plan has been submitted to Iran. [Zelensky: Opposes Unilateral Restart of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant] Ukrainian President Zelensky held talks with IAEA Director General Grossi on the 3rd. Zelensky stated that the two sides discussed the safety of Ukraine's nuclear facilities, as well as the completion of the Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant, uranium mining, and the restoration of the damaged sarcophagus at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. Zelensky expressed that any Russian idea of restarting the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant without Ukraine's involvement is absurd and dangerous. He emphasized that the IAEA should be stationed at the nuclear power plant for this purpose. [US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Will Correct "Minor Errors" in April Employment Data on Friday] The US Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that it will correct "minor errors" in April's employment data while releasing May's data on Friday, adding that the relevant adjustments will not affect key indicators such as the unemployment rate. In a statement on Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said, "Due to minor errors in weights resulting from the introduction of a redesigned Current Population Survey (CPS) sample, some estimates for April 2025 will be corrected on June 6, 2025." "Major labor force indicators such as the unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and employment-to-population ratio were not affected. Although many estimates will be corrected, the impact will be negligible." [Musk Criticizes Tax Reform Bill as "Absurd"; White House: Does Not Affect Trump's Position] US White House Press Secretary Levitt stated on the 3rd that Elon Musk's criticism "will not change" US President Trump's support for the massive tax and spending bill. It is reported that Musk posted a message on a social media platform on the same day, calling the massive bill "absurd and riddled with political manipulation." Musk claimed that the bill would significantly increase the budget deficit to $2.5 trillion, imposing an unbearable debt burden on US citizens. [White House Confirms Authenticity of Letter "Urging" Trade Negotiation Partners to "Submit Proposals"] The US White House Press Secretary stated on the 3rd that she could confirm the authenticity of the content of the letter regarding the deadline for trade negotiations. She said that the Office of the US Trade Representative sent the letter to trading partners merely to remind them of the approaching deadline, and that US President Trump was looking forward to reaching a good agreement. [Meta Reportedly Focused on Developing "Ultra-thin Open-type Headset"] Meta was reported to be adjusting its development plans: it intends to scrap the upgrade projects for its current VR products and accelerate the launch of an "ultra-thin open-type headset" before the end of next year. According to overseas tech media citing multiple sources familiar with the matter, the two alternative upgrade plans for the VR glasses Quest 4, "Pismo Low" and "Pismo High," have been canceled. Therefore, Meta's next Quest headset with a traditional design will not be launched until at least 2027. At the end of last year, Meta also confirmed that an alternative project for its high-end VR headset Quest Pro 2 had been scrapped. Meanwhile, Meta is accelerating the R&D project for its ultra-thin open-type headset, code-named "Puffin," with the goal of launching it before the end of 2026. In terms of form factor, the device will connect an independent computing module and a battery via cables. Sources familiar with the matter said that Meta is exploring display system solutions at different price points for this product, and the final mass-produced version has not yet been determined. [US eVTOL Company and Saudi Enterprise Explore Cooperation Opportunities, with Potential Delivery of 200 Electric Aircraft in the Future] On Tuesday (June 3) local time, Abdul Latif Jameel, a well-known Saudi enterprise, announced on its official website that it had signed a memorandum of understanding with Joby Aviation, a US company, to explore opportunities for establishing a distribution agreement for Joby's eVTOLs in Saudi Arabia. The press release stated that the two parties are expected to deliver up to 200 Joby Aviation aircraft and related services in the coming years, with the total transaction value potentially approaching $1 billion. "In the long run, both Abdul Latif Jameel and Joby see potential revenue opportunities in the Middle East region," it said. [Broadcom Announces Delivery of Switch Chips, Setting an Industry Record for Capacity] On June 3, Broadcom announced the official delivery of its Tomahawk® 6-series switch chips, setting an industry record with a switching capacity of 102.4 Tbps per single chip, which doubles the bandwidth of existing Ethernet switch products. [Meta and Constellation Sign 20-Year Power Supply Agreement] On Tuesday local time, tech giant Meta reached a 20-year agreement with Constellation Energy, the largest owner of nuclear power plants in the US, to meet the power demand driven by the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. According to the released statement, starting from June 2027, Meta will purchase approximately 1.1 gigawatts of electricity from Constellation's Clinton Clean Energy Center in Illinois, which represents the full power generation capacity of one of the center's nuclear reactors.

Last Friday, US President Trump publicly lashed out at the EU for unfair trade practices and threatened to impose a 50% tariff on it next month. However, just two days later, Trump changed his tune again. On Sunday local time, Trump stated that he had agreed to extend the deadline for imposing a 50% tariff on the EU to July 9 . "I received a call today from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, requesting an extension of the June 1 deadline for the 50% tariff related to EU trade," Trump wrote on Truth Social. "I agreed to extend it to July 9, 2025, and I am honored to do so," he added. Before Trump posted the above message, von der Leyen said she had a "good call" with Trump, but that "reaching a good agreement" would require extending the negotiation period to July 9. "The EU and the US have the most important and closest trading relationship in the world," she wrote on X. "Europe is ready to move forward with negotiations quickly and decisively." Last Friday, Trump proposed imposing a direct 50% tariff on the EU, claiming that negotiations between the US and the EU had "made no progress." He also lashed out, saying that the EU's main purpose was to take advantage of the US in trade and that they had been very difficult to deal with. Trump also stated that the EU's strong trade barriers, VAT, absurd corporate fines, non-monetary trade barriers, currency manipulation, and unfair, unfounded lawsuits against US companies had all contributed to the huge trade deficit between the US and the EU. Later last Friday, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on a show that Trump's 50% tariff threat was intended to prompt the EU to speed up its actions. "I believe the President thinks the EU's proposal is not as high-quality as what we've seen from other important trading partners." Since the US announced "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, trade negotiations between the US and the EU had been relatively slow, only picking up pace recently. The EU and the US officially began tariff negotiations, with both sides exchanging negotiation documents for the first time. Dissatisfied with the US's "list-based" demands, the EU prepared a new trade proposal last week to advance the negotiations.

Caixin previously warned that a rapid decline in the US dollar would not be a good thing for the world. Now, the traditional European "safe haven," Switzerland, is perhaps the first to feel this deeply. The Swiss franc surged to its highest level in a decade against the US dollar last week, as investors sought refuge from the turmoil of the trade war initiated by Trump. This has sparked market speculation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be forced to cut interest rates back to zero or even negative to curb the appreciation of the franc. Notably, after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates last year, the benchmark rates of all major economies are now above zero. If Switzerland returns to zero or negative rates, it would undoubtedly mean that Trump's trade war and the subsequent wave of dollar depreciation will completely shatter the global interest rate "floor." Market data shows that the USD/CHF exchange rate approached the 0.8 level last week for the first time since the 2015 Swiss franc shock. This has put Swiss policymakers in a dilemma: they need to suppress the currency to support the country's export-driven economy while avoiding drawing attention from the US, which has threatened Switzerland with high tariffs. Note: USD/CHF performance over the past two months Kit Juckes, head of FX strategy at Société Générale, pointed out that this situation has put the SNB in a "shockingly difficult position." He added that the Swiss government does not want to face significant deflationary pressures again, leaving them feeling particularly frustrated. As traders bet on the SNB cutting rates, Swiss short-term government bond yields have recently fallen back into negative territory for the first time in over two and a half years. The two-year Swiss government bond yield, which reflects interest rate expectations, closed slightly below zero last Friday... Many analysts warn that the rapid appreciation of the franc could lead to deflationary pressures in Switzerland, and the impact of Trump's trade war on economic growth will exacerbate this risk. Before the White House announced a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs earlier this month, the reciprocal tariff rate on Swiss goods had reached as high as 31%, exceeding the level imposed on the EU. Over 10% of Swiss exports rely on US consumers. Intervention Difficult, Only Rate Cuts Left? In fact, Switzerland, with its rich experience in curbing currency appreciation, is no stranger to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. The current trouble is that if Swiss authorities directly intervene in the foreign exchange market, it could draw the attention of the Trump administration. Some analysts suggest that Swiss authorities are concerned that large-scale intervention to suppress the franc's rise could once again lead to the US labeling Switzerland as a "currency manipulator." Switzerland was included in the US "currency manipulator" list towards the end of Trump's first term (partly due to its foreign exchange interventions to buffer the pandemic impact) and was only removed during the Biden administration. Gregor Kapferer, head of bonds at Swiss private bank Vontobel, stated that the SNB "will certainly be concerned" and believes that increasing intervention would be a "last resort." He noted that while Switzerland was accused of currency manipulation during the previous Trump administration, it faced no substantial sanctions. However, with Trump potentially taking concrete actions now, the SNB will undoubtedly be more cautious. Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING, believes that "if the SNB is unhappy with the strong franc and constrained by foreign exchange intervention limits, then rate cuts may be the only option." From the perspective of the foreign exchange market, the recent rise in the franc against the euro has made this export-dependent country's relationship with its largest trading partner even more challenging. In Q1 this year, the SNB was the first among major global central banks to cut its benchmark rate to 0.25%, and many market participants believe further rate cuts are a safer policy option to curb the franc's appreciation. The SNB previously maintained negative rates for eight years to suppress excessive franc appreciation, only returning to positive territory in 2022 to address post-pandemic inflation spikes. Swap market data shows that while expectations for the SNB cutting rates into negative territory by year-end remain low, current market pricing reflects an approximately 80% probability of a rate cut to zero at the June meeting. Switzerland's current annual inflation rate of 0.3% is already near the lower limit of the central bank's 0-2% target range. Stefan Gerlach, chief economist at Swiss private bank EFG, stated that negative rates are "very likely to happen," and currency intervention may ultimately be necessary. However, Gerlach downplayed the likelihood of Switzerland being labeled a currency manipulator again. He believes that "rational decision-makers" in the US Treasury should agree that such interventions do not constitute a problem, as "deliberately devaluing a currency for competitive advantage would be controversial, but moderate regulation of a surging currency would not."