SMM, May 29: Spot prices of cobalt products overall fluctuated downward this week. The cobalt intermediate products market continued to receive some support from the slow quota approval process and tight logistics capacity in the DRC. However, the mediocre performance of demand in the overall cobalt market continued to weigh on the market. Can cobalt salt prices find support going forward? Where is the price inflection point? ...SMM compiled the price changes in the cobalt market this week, as follows: : According to SMM spot quotes, spot refined cobalt prices fluctuated downward this week. After three consecutive trading days of decline, on May 29, spot refined cobalt prices fell to 419,000-429,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 424,000 yuan/mt, down 3,000 yuan/mt from May 22, a decline of 0.7%. Supply and demand side, mainstream smelters largely completed their sales targets at the month-end stage, keeping quotes stable. Traders' spot-futures price spread ran at parity to a premium of 8,000-10,000 yuan/mt. Downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises continued purchasing as needed, with no relaxation in raw material inventory control. The metal price spread between refined cobalt and low-priced cobalt salts had largely converged, and the industry's willingness to conduct reverse dissolution production remained subdued. SMM expects the market to continue its fluctuating trend in the short term, and refined cobalt prices still need support from the cobalt salt market to rise. Cobalt Salts ( and ): : According to SMM spot quotes, spot cobalt sulphate prices fluctuated downward this week. As of May 29, spot cobalt sulphate prices temporarily stabilized at 91,000-93,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 92,000 yuan/mt, down 1,500 yuan/mt from 93,500 yuan/mt on May 22, a decline of 1.6%. Supply and demand side, mainstream brands' quotes on the supply side pulled back to 91,000-95,000 yuan/mt. Some smelters and traders cut prices to ship out due to capital turnover pressure, with low-priced cargoes in the market reaching as low as 87,000-88,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, the market was primarily focused on destocking, with a sluggish procurement atmosphere and only sporadic just-in-time procurement. Downstream industry trends diverged: LCO enterprises' production schedules fell short of expectations, compounded by slow order placement, resulting in a strong wait-and-see sentiment; ternary precursor enterprises saw improving production schedules, with purchase willingness gradually rebounding. SMM expects prices to remain in the doldrums in the short term, and a recovery in cobalt sulphate prices still awaits the release of concentrated restocking demand from downstream. : According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt chloride spot prices remained stable after declining on the first trading day of May 25 this week. As of May 29, cobalt chloride spot prices held steady at 111,500-115,200 yuan/mt, with an average price of 113,350 yuan/mt, down 400 yuan/mt from May 22, a decline of 0.35%. Spot market, the cobalt chloride market atmosphere remained mediocre this week. Supply side, top-tier players continued their strategy of holding prices firm, refusing to ship at low prices, providing bottom support for prices. Meanwhile, small and medium-sized producers, under pressure from capital recovery and performance targets, proactively lowered their offers, but transactions remained scarce even after price cuts, driving the market negotiation center to continue shifting downward. Demand side, downstream enterprises were constrained by weak orders and high inventory, with purchase willingness remaining subdued. SMM believes that current prices already have strong support, with limited room for further weakness, and maintains optimistic expectations for the market outlook. Cost side, prices are expected to recover and rebound going forward, but upside room is constrained, with the timing roughly around June . : According to SMM spot quotes, Co3O4 spot prices also fluctuated downward this week. As of May 29, Co3O4 spot prices fell to 345,000-357,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 351,000 yuan/mt, down 7,000 yuan/mt from 358,000 yuan/mt on May 22, a decline of 1.96%. According to SMM, the Co3O4 market continued its sluggish trend this week. Supply side, producers found it difficult to hold high prices and offered concessions to facilitate shipments, yet product inventory continued to accumulate. Demand side, downstream LCO material enterprises still relied mainly on client-supplied materials and long-term contract procurement, with spot order demand continuing to shrink. Meanwhile, affected by weak end-user demand, some clients had begun to slow down the pace of long-term contract cargo pick-up. Looking ahead, the sluggish landscape of the Co3O4 market is unlikely to change in the short term, but SMM still holds a positive view on prices, though support comes more from the cost side, with the boost from supply-demand and procurement remaining relatively limited. Regarding raw material cobalt intermediate products, according to SMM spot quotes, cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) spot prices edged down $0.1/lb on the last trading day this week, quoted at $25.8-26/lb, with an average price of $25.9/lb. Supply-demand side, the supply side maintained a strong bullish sentiment, holding offers near $26/lb. Due to the sluggish cobalt salt market, downstream smelters remained cautious in procurement, making only just-in-time procurement, with some non-standard cargoes transacted at $25/lb. Currently, 2026 Q1 quotas saw slow approval progress due to cumbersome procedures; coupled with tight logistics capacity in the DRC, cobalt raw material transportation was given lower priority, and the arrival of large shipments at ports continued to be delayed. Short-term demand support remained weak, and prices may continue to trade sideways; a subsequent market strengthening will still depend on downstream demand recovery and cobalt salt price repair. News side, recently, cobalt product import and export data were released. Regarding unwrought cobalt, according to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's unwrought cobalt imports in April 2026 were approximately 1,334 mt, up 39% MoM and up 59% YoY. April refined cobalt imports mainly came from Indonesia, Russia, and Madagascar, with imports of 462 mt, 457 mt, and 182 mt respectively. The main reason for the increase this month was that domestic smelters lacked intermediate product raw materials and imported cobalt slabs and cobalt briquettes for re-dissolution to ensure normal production. In terms of average import price, the average import price of China's unwrought cobalt in April 2026 was $52,724/mt, up 4.72% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to April 2026 totaled 5,916 mt, up 153% YoY cumulatively. Export side, China's unwrought cobalt exports in April 2026 were approximately 218 mt, down 47% MoM and down 95% YoY. By country, China's exports to the US dropped significantly, with April exports to the US at 35 mt, down 87.5% MoM. The main reason was that US demand for alloy-grade refined cobalt pulled back in April, and ex-China branded refined cobalt was sufficient to meet regional demand, with some refined cobalt traders redirecting destinations from the US back to China. In terms of average export price, the average export price of China's unwrought cobalt in April 2026 was $54,590/mt, up 5.80% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to April 2026 totaled 1,792 mt, down 76% YoY cumulatively. Cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products side, China's cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products imports in April 2026 were approximately 1,247 mt in physical content, down 26% MoM and down 98% YoY, of which imports from the DRC were approximately 945 mt in physical content, down 43% MoM and down 98% YoY. The average import price of China's cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products in April 2026 was $17,187/mt, up 2.63% MoM. It was learned that most miners had completed 2025 Q4 quota approvals, but 2026 Q1 quota approvals again experienced reduced efficiency due to sampling, detection, and other procedural issues. Coupled with the current tight logistics capacity in the DRC, fleets prioritized transporting production-critical oil products and chemicals for economic reasons, followed by other metals with shorter turnover cycles, and cobalt in non-ferrous metals came last, facing significant transportation capacity challenges. Constrained by the above factors, miners primarily focused on building in-transit inventory and had not yet concentrated on chartering vessels, so the arrival of large volumes of intermediate products at ports may continue to be delayed.

SMM May 28 update: The minor metal sector strengthened on May 28. As of the close on May 28, the minor metal sector rose 3.44%. In terms of individual stocks: Sino-Platinum Metals, Yunnan Germanium Industry, and China Molybdenum hit the daily limit, while China Minmetals Rare Earth, China Tungsten And Hightech, China Northern Rare Earth, and China Rare Earth led the gains. On the news front: According to authoritative local media in Zimbabwe and Xinhua News Agency, the Zimbabwean government recently issued the Mineral Classification and Declaration, explicitly listing lithium and other high-value minerals as "critical minerals" subject to equity and export controls. The critical minerals involved include 14 types: lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, copper, rare earth elements, chromium, platinum group metals (PGMs), manganese, antimony, uranium, ruthenium, tungsten, and niobium. The market is focused on the impact of tightening resource-country policies on global supply chains, with sentiment warming for minor metal varieties such as antimony and tungsten. Spot market Tungsten According to SMM pricing, on May 28, the average price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) was 415,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), up 1.22% from the previous trading day. Notably, after wolframite concentrates previously experienced a 61.88% decline over more than two months, driven by increased purchasing demand in the tungsten market, tungsten prices saw a rebound over two trading days. Currently, transactions in the tungsten concentrates market have improved, suppliers are bullish and hold back from selling, high-grade ore sees an upward shift in transaction center, while medium and low-grade ore circulates more but price increases appear lackluster. Downstream APT industry operating rates have slightly improved, but with limited new orders in the industry, smelters are cautious in restocking, with only small volumes of spot orders and large orders transacted in the market. Regarding the tungsten outlook, in the short term, driven by orderly inventory destocking, the return of downstream rigid demand, and the formation of pricing consensus among industry leaders, the tungsten market has overall entered a consolidation-at-lows and recovery phase. Going forward, key attention should be paid to the execution of long-term contracts and the pace of end-use demand recovery. According to SMM surveys, downstream cemented carbide alloy enterprises have seen inventory drop to low levels, with expectations of rigid restocking demand, but influenced by the market not yet being fully stabilized, enterprises remain cautious in procurement, generally adopting a small-order purchasing model. If upstream raw material inventory continues to be cleared and supply-demand imbalances are alleviated, tungsten prices are expected to enter a stabilization and consolidation phase in June-July. In the medium and long-term, the gap in Q3 mining quota transitions may lead to a contraction in market supply, coupled with expectations of the traditional September-October peak season, the industrial supply-demand structure will continue to optimize, thereby providing bullish support for tungsten prices. Rare Earths After the rally on May 27, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide on May 28 fell 1.79% from the previous trading day, and inquiries in the rare earth oxide market were sluggish on the 28th. Affected by futures price fluctuations combined with periodic restocking by some major producers, Pr-Nd oxide prices fluctuated frequently this week. Upstream and downstream players continued their stalemate, with suppliers maintaining relatively firm offers overall, while downstream metal producers maintained a strong wait-and-see sentiment and showed low purchase willingness at high prices. Absent other news-driven factors, Pr-Nd oxide is expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term before any significant change in the supply-demand relationship. Institutional Views Huafu Securities noted in its research report dated May 24, when commenting on other minor metals: rare earths performed weakly, while tantalum pentoxide surged during the week. In the rare earth market, end-use demand from downstream magnetic material sectors remained weak, with no large-scale concentrated restocking observed — only sporadic rigid-demand small orders were transacted, and the demand side consistently failed to provide effective support for the market. Market sentiment fluctuated significantly, with frequent tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Overall industry confidence was insufficient, with a notable stalemate between upstream and downstream on offer and bid prices, and significant divergence within the industry regarding the outlook for subsequent market trends. On Friday, the market maintained a wait-and-see attitude, awaiting changes in the magnetic material restocking pace and a recovery in downstream demand. Individual stocks: for antimony, Hunan Gold, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Huayu Mining are recommended; for molybdenum, China Moly, China Gold, and CMOC; for tungsten, Jiaxin International Resources, China Tungsten High-Tech, Xiamen Tungsten, and Zhangyuan Tungsten; for rare earths, China Rare Earth, China Northern Rare Earth, JL MAG Rare-Earth, and Xiamen Tungsten. Kaiyuan Securities' mid-year 2026 investment strategy for the metals sector indicated: Copper: Supply side, most ex-China miners continued to face declining ore grades and recovery rates, with disruption factors persisting (Ivanhoe's Kamoa-Kakula copper mine, Codelco's El Teniente copper mine). Although China's domestic enterprises added incremental capacity, the overall increase was limited. Under optimistic assumptions, global supply growth from 2026 to 2027 may fall below 2%. Demand side, power demand in both China and the U.S. maintained high growth rates in H1, which is expected to contribute marginal incremental copper demand. Kaiyuan Securities believes that the supply-demand structural imbalance for copper will become more pronounced in 2026, supporting a rise in the copper price center. Lithium: Supply side, capital expenditure in the lithium industry contracted and supply discipline gradually took shape. Combined with frequent disruptions, supply elasticity in the lithium industry has declined notably compared to before. Meanwhile, energy storage demand sustained high prosperity, driving gradual improvement in the lithium demand structure and marginal easing of inventory pressure. Lithium prices are expected to see a phased recovery. Lithium enterprises with resource security, low-cost advantages, and integrated layouts are expected to see earnings recovery elasticity outperforming the industry average. Lithium mine and lithium chemicals companies with high resource self-sufficiency rates and strong cost control capabilities are worth watching. Tungsten: As a strategic metal where China holds a dominant position, tungsten ore supply is constrained by resource depletion, environmental protection, and other factors. Combined with the government's total volume control on tungsten ore mining, tungsten ore production release remains limited. Demand side, emerging sectors are boosting tungsten demand, which is expected to provide long-term support for tungsten prices. According to a CITIC Securities research report, the current metals sector valuation remains at a reasonable level, with aluminum, copper, nickel-cobalt-tin-antimony, and gold valuations at relatively low levels, and a valuation rebound is still anticipated. Sector dividends have pulled back slightly, but the projected dividend yields of some individual stocks still exceed 5%. Looking ahead to 2026, liquidity shocks are expected to ease, supply disruptions are expected to occur frequently, and certain downstream sectors are expected to sustain relatively high prosperity. It is recommended to maintain a focus on allocation opportunities in lithium, copper, rare earths, strategic metals, aluminum, and gold sectors. Recommended Reading:

Refined Cobalt: Spot refined cobalt remained generally stable this week, with prices slightly under pressure. At the month-end stage, mainstream smelters largely completed their sales targets, keeping offers steady. Traders' spot-futures price spread ranged from parity to a premium of 8,000-10,000 yuan/mt. Downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises continued purchasing as needed, with no relaxation in raw material inventory controls. The metal price spread between refined cobalt and lower-priced cobalt salts has largely narrowed to parity, dampening industry willingness for reverse dissolution production. The market is expected to remain range-bound in the short term, and upward price movement still depends on a boost from the cobalt salt market. Cobalt Intermediate Products: Cobalt intermediate product prices continued to hold steady this week. The supply side maintained a strong bullish sentiment, with offers firmly around $26/lb. Constrained by the sluggish cobalt salt market, downstream smelters remained cautious in procurement, making only just-in-time procurement, with some non-standard cargoes transacted at $25/lb. Currently, Q1 2026 quotas are still subject to slow approval progress due to cumbersome procedures; coupled with tight logistics capacity in the DRC, cobalt raw material transportation has lower priority, and the arrival of large shipments at ports continues to be delayed. Short-term demand support remains weak, and prices are likely to continue trading sideways; a subsequent strengthening of the market still depends on downstream demand recovery and cobalt salt price repair. Cobalt Sulphate: Spot cobalt sulphate prices continued to weaken this week. On the supply side, mainstream brand offers pulled back to 91,000-95,000 yuan/mt, with some smelters and traders cutting prices for shipments under capital turnover pressure, and low-priced cargoes in the market falling to 87,000-88,000 yuan/mt. On the demand side, destocking remained the dominant theme, with a sluggish purchasing atmosphere and only sporadic just-in-time procurement. Downstream industry trends diverged: LCO enterprises saw production schedules fall short of expectations, compounded by slow order placement, resulting in strong wait-and-see sentiment; ternary precursor enterprises saw improving production schedules, with purchase willingness gradually rebounding. Short-term prices are likely to remain in the doldrums, and market recovery still awaits the release of concentrated restocking demand from downstream. SMM New Energy Research Team Wang Cong 021-51666838 Ma Rui 021-51595780 Feng Disheng 021-51666714 Lv Yanlin 021-20707875 Xiao Wenhao 021-51666872 Zhang Haohan 021-51666752 Wang Zihan 021-51666914 Wang Jie 021-51595902 Xu Yang 021-51666760 Yang Lianting 021-51595835 Wang Zhaoyu 021-51666827

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Rare Earth Prices Fluctuated, Upstream and Downstream Remained in Stalemate] Affected by futures price fluctuations combined with periodic restocking by some major producers, Pr-Nd oxide prices fluctuated relatively frequently. Upstream and downstream continued to remain in a stalemate, with suppliers maintaining relatively firm offers overall, while downstream metal producers maintained a strong wait-and-see sentiment. As of today, Pr-Nd oxide prices fluctuated downward to 682,000-688,000 yuan/mt.

SMM May 22 update: The "Regulations for the Implementation of the Mineral Resources Law of the People's Republic of China" was recently promulgated and will take effect from June 15, 2026. The tight supply situation on the raw material side remained unchanged. Pr-Nd oxide saw a notable increase on May 21, boosted by major manufacturers' procurement, but underwent a slight correction on May 22 under the influence of inquiries pushing for lower prices. Nevertheless, the recovery in market confidence provided some support for Pr-Nd prices. Demand side, the NEV, wind power, and humanoid robot industries continued to develop favorably, and the market expected promising growth in high performance NdFeB demand. Additionally, after the previous period of adjustment, some market funds flowed back into the rare earth permanent magnet sector, driving a notable rise in the rare earth permanent magnet concept on May 22. As of the close on May 22, the rare earth permanent magnet concept rose 3.14%. In terms of individual stocks: Xiangtan Electric Manufacturing hit the daily limit, while Advanced Technology & Materials, Hanghua Co., Huaxin Technology, Innuovo Technology, and Orient Zirconic Industry led the gains. News [Li Qiang Signs State Council Decree Promulgating the "Regulations for the Implementation of the Mineral Resources Law of the People's Republic of China"] Premier Li Qiang recently signed a State Council decree promulgating the "Regulations for the Implementation of the Mineral Resources Law of the People's Republic of China" (hereinafter referred to as the "Regulations"), which will take effect from June 15, 2026. The Regulations aim to ensure the effective implementation of the revised Mineral Resources Law, promote the rational development and utilization of mineral resources, strengthen the protection of mineral resources and the ecological environment, drive high-quality development of the mining industry, and safeguard mineral resource security. The Regulations consist of 8 chapters and 79 articles, mainly covering the following contents. First, further improving the mining rights system, with specific provisions on the establishment, transfer by tender, renewal, and assignment of mining rights. Second, refining systems related to mineral resource exploration and extraction, including establishing and improving technical standards and normative systems for basic geological surveys, clarifying procedures for applying for exploration permits and mining permits, strengthening land use guarantees for mining, promoting comprehensive utilization of mineral resources, and clarifying the legal effect of mineral resource reserve reports. Third, refining systems related to ecological restoration in mining areas, clarifying that mining right holders are responsible for ecological restoration in mining areas, detailing the contents that ecological restoration plans for mining areas should specify, and stipulating the completion deadlines and acceptance procedures for ecological restoration in mining areas. Fourth, further improving mineral resource reserve and emergency response systems, clarifying the principles to be followed in building a strategic mineral resource reserve system, further refining systems related to strategic mineral resource product reserves, capacity reserves, and production site reserves, and improving emergency response measures for mineral resources. Fifth, further improving the supervision and management system, refining the evaluation system for mineral resource development and utilization levels, implementing registration and tiered and classified supervision for entities engaged in mineral resource exploration, and clarifying dispute resolution mechanisms between mining right holders. Legal responsibilities were improved, specifying that violations involving strategic mineral resources shall be subject to heavier penalties within the statutory range. (Xinhua News Agency) Pr-Nd oxide price pulled back slightly on May 22; dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide prices remained stable Spot market: On May 22, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide edged down 0.57% from the previous trading day. Dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide prices remained flat compared to the previous trading day. Currently, rare earth market prices showed a slight correction. Focusing on the Pr-Nd market, mid-week, magnetic material enterprises conducted a round of concentrated procurement, but as the weekend approached, their inquiry activities decreased significantly, with most inquiries pushing for lower prices. Affected by this, the metal market inquiries came under pressure, and some metal enterprises slightly lowered their quotes. The oxide market was also affected; impacted by metal enterprises' price-pushing inquiries, some traders lowered their quotes. However, market confidence recovered somewhat in the short term, and suppliers had low willingness to sell at lower prices, so the overall decline in Pr-Nd products remained limited. Turning to the medium-heavy rare earth market, although market inquiry activities decreased, suppliers showed little willingness to sell at lower prices. Prices of products such as dysprosium and terbium therefore showed no significant fluctuations, maintaining overall stable operation. Overall, as downstream inquiry activities decreased near the weekend with price-pushing inquiries, Pr-Nd product prices saw a slight correction, while medium-heavy rare earth market prices remained relatively firm with stable overall operation. In the short term, as market trading activity picks up, Pr-Nd product prices are expected to move sideways. Institutional Views Guojin Securities research report noted: Rare earth: From the beginning of the year to date, the price center has been continuously rising, which we believe is likely highly correlated with supply-side policy documents issued from 2024 to 2025, as industry supply-side reform continues to advance. Full-year exports in 2025 were -1% YoY, while exports from early 2026 to date increased significantly, indicating that ex-China restocking demand remains substantial. The rare earth sector will continue to see dual appreciation in valuation and earnings, and 2026 is also a critical year for resolving horizontal competition among key targets. Resource side, we recommend attention to China Rare Earth (medium-heavy rare earth leader, biggest beneficiary of supply reform), China Rare Metals and Rare Earth (undervalued, high-growth South China rare earth leader), China Northern Rare Earth (light rare earth leader, significant cost advantages), Bao Gang United Steel (beneficiary of dual supply reform in rare earth and steel); magnetic material segment beneficiary: JL MAG Rare-Earth (magnetic material leader, robotics contributing growth potential). Other related targets include Zhenghai Magnetic Material and Ningbo Yunsheng. According to a Huaxi Securities research report: per the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), rare earths are relatively abundant in the Earth's crust, but mineable reserves are less than most other mineral products. In 2025, global rare earth reserves were estimated at 85 million mt (in rare earth oxide equivalent, same below), of which China's reserves were 44 million mt, accounting for 51.76%. Production side, global rare earth production in 2025 was 380,000 mt, of which China's production was 270,000 mt, accounting for 71.05%. Midstream, 90% of smelting and processing demand in 2025 was handled by China. Downstream, according to Frost & Sullivan's forecast, global rare earth permanent magnet production in 2025 was 310,200 mt, of which sintered NdFeB production was 296,700 mt (95.65%); China's rare earth permanent magnet production was 284,200 mt (91.62% of global production), of which sintered NdFeB production was 271,800 mt (95.64%). Overall, global rare earth resources are highly concentrated, and China ranks first globally in both rare earth production and reserves. On November 7, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs jointly announced that from that date until November 10, 2026, six export control measures involving superhard materials, rare earth-related items, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials would be temporarily suspended, indicating some easing in China-US relations. The US government is actively rebuilding its domestic rare earth industry chain, with US magnet manufacturer eVAC recently shipping its first batch of NdFeB permanent magnets from its Sumter, South Carolina plant. However, in the short term, global rare earth permanent magnet production remains highly concentrated in China. Considering that ex-China capacity release still requires time and given the scale of China's new capacity, China remains the only country in the world with production capabilities across the entire rare earth industry chain for all product categories. The overall scale of the Western rare earth industry chain is far below that of China, with incomplete industry chains and obvious shortcomings. Looking ahead, although downstream new orders remain weak with most enterprises primarily digesting existing orders, some small and medium-sized enterprises' raw material inventory is approaching low levels, highlighting rigid restocking demand. According to a CITIC Securities research report, in 2025 and Q1 2026, earnings growth in the metals sector generally accelerated, with tungsten, lithium, lead-zinc, and rare earth magnetic materials leading the gains, while aluminum, copper, nickel-cobalt-tin-antimony, and gold performed relatively weakly since the beginning of the year. Current metals sector valuations remain at reasonable levels, with aluminum, copper, nickel-cobalt-tin-antimony, and gold valuations at relatively low levels, and valuation rebounds are still expected. Industry dividends pulled back slightly, but forecast dividend yields for some individual stocks still exceed 5%. Looking ahead to 2026, with liquidity shocks easing, supply disruptions occurring frequently, and certain downstream sectors sustaining relatively high prosperity, it is recommended to continue focusing on allocation opportunities in lithium, copper, rare earth, strategic metals, aluminum, and gold sectors. Recommended Reading:

SMM, May 22: Cobalt product prices showed mixed performance this week. Refined cobalt spot prices rose by 2,000 yuan/mt over the week, with downstream buyers still purchasing as needed. Cobalt salt performance was relatively weak, with cobalt sulphate, cobalt chloride, and Co3O4 spot prices all recording varying degrees of decline. The overall market performance was sluggish, still awaiting feedback from subsequent downstream production schedules... SMM compiled the price fluctuations of cobalt products this week, as follows: : According to SMM spot prices, refined cobalt spot prices fluctuated upward this week. As of May 22, refined cobalt spot prices rose to 424,000-430,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 427,000 yuan/mt, up 2,000 yuan/mt from May 15, a gain of 0.47%. Fundamentals: Supply side, mainstream smelters maintained stable quotes this week, with trader spot-futures price spreads stable at parity to a premium of 8,000-10,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises continued purchasing as needed, maintaining control over raw material inventory levels. The metal price spread between refined cobalt and low-priced cobalt salts remained at a low level, and cobalt salts were difficult to sell, making enterprises reluctant to re-dissolve cobalt salts to produce refined cobalt. The market is likely to continue its volatile pattern in the short term, and price rises still depend on effective support from cobalt salt prices. Cobalt salts ( and ): : According to SMM spot prices, cobalt sulphate spot prices continued to edge down this week. As of May 22, cobalt sulphate spot prices fell to 92,000-95,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 93,500 yuan/mt, down 1,000 yuan/mt from 94,500 yuan/mt on May 15, a decline of 1.06%. According to SMM, on the supply side of cobalt sulphate this week, mainstream brand price centers shifted down to 92,000-95,000 yuan/mt; some smelters and traders, under capital turnover pressure, again made concessions on shipments, with low-priced sources dropping to 88,000-89,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream enterprises still primarily consumed earlier inventory, with weak procurement enthusiasm, only making small just-in-time procurement for restocking. Some downstream sources reported that LCO production schedules fell short of expectations, and they maintained a wait-and-see stance before orders were confirmed. Cobalt sulphate prices are likely to continue fluctuating in the short term, with subsequent recovery still dependent on the release of downstream restocking demand. : According to SMM spot prices, cobalt chloride spot prices also declined this week. As of May 22, cobalt chloride spot prices fell to 112,000-115,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of 113,750 yuan/mt, down 1,750 yuan/mt from 115,500 yuan/mt on May 15, a decline of 1.52%. From the spot market perspective, according to SMM, cobalt chloride market transactions were mediocre this week. Supply side, top-tier players continued to hold prices firm, refusing to sell at low prices, providing strong support for cobalt chloride prices; while small and medium-sized producers, constrained by capital recovery and performance pressure, proactively lowered quotes, but even with price cuts, transactions were difficult to conclude, leading to continued price declines. Demand side, downstream enterprises, affected by weak demand and inventory accumulation, maintained persistently low purchase willingness. SMM believes that current cobalt chloride prices already have strong support, with limited possibility of further decline, and holds an optimistic view on the market outlook. From a cost perspective, prices are expected to rebound subsequently, but upside room is limited, with the estimated period around June. : According to SMM spot prices, Co3O4 spot prices showed a volatile downward trend this week. As of May 22, Co3O4 spot prices fell to 353,000-363,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 358,000 yuan/mt, down 5,500 yuan/mt from 363,500 yuan/mt on May 15, a decline of 1.51%. According to SMM, the Co3O4 spot market continued its sluggish pattern this week. Supply side, enterprises found it difficult to maintain high prices and lowered prices to ship, but even so, product inventory continued to accumulate. Demand side, downstream LCO material enterprises still primarily relied on client-supplied materials plus long-term contracts, with spot order procurement volumes continuing to decline; meanwhile, affected by weak demand, some enterprises proactively slowed down their long-term contract cargo pick-up pace. Looking ahead, the subdued Co3O4 market is expected to persist for an extended period, but the price outlook remains positive, though support comes more from the cost side, with supply-demand and procurement factors having relatively limited impact. Regarding raw material cobalt intermediate products: According to SMM spot prices, cobalt intermediate product spot prices remained stable this week. As of May 22, cobalt intermediate product (CIF China) spot prices held steady at $25.8-26.2/lb, with an average price of $26/lb. According to SMM, on the supply side of cobalt intermediate products this week, suppliers maintained firm bullish expectations, with quotes consistently held above $26/lb. Demand side performance was stable; affected by weak cobalt salt prices, downstream smelters only made just-in-time procurement, with some non-standard products transacting near $25/lb. On the quota front, 2025 Q4 miner quota approvals were largely completed, while Q1 quota approvals were slower due to procedural constraints; coupled with tight logistics capacity in the DRC, where cobalt cargo had lower transportation priority, the arrival of large-volume shipments to China may be further delayed . In the short term, dragged by weak demand, prices are likely to remain stable, but after downstream orders materialize and restocking demand is released, intermediate product prices still have upside room for recovery. News: According to Webstock Inc., on May 18, Ilya Epikhin, Global Head of Natural Resources at consulting firm Arthur D. Little, stated that 2027 could see the first deep-sea mineral extraction, with copper, cobalt, and nickel being "mined" from the ocean for the first time. It is reported that polymetallic nodules on the seabed (containing 28%-30% manganese, 1% copper, 1% nickel, 0.2%-0.7% cobalt) are found at depths of 4,000-6,000 meters, with concentrations ranging from 5-15 kg per m², with the Clarion-Clipperton Zone in the North Pacific being the world's most resource-rich area for nodules. Corporate developments: On May 12, XTC New Energy Materials (Xiamen) was asked about the impact of cobalt raw material price increases on the company. XTC New Energy Materials (Xiamen) responded that the company is one of the world's largest cobalt consumers, maintaining long-term close cooperation with upstream enterprises, with stable cobalt raw material supply. In the 3C consumer electronics sector, clients focus more on LCO performance, so the negative impact of cobalt raw material price increases on the company's operations is relatively small. In terms of inventory management, the company adheres to a "short lead time, fast turnover" business strategy, building a robust raw material supply chain. Public information shows that XTC New Energy Materials (Xiamen)'s main products include LCO, ternary cathode material (including high-nickel ternary), and LFP, with its ternary cathode material firmly positioned in the industry's first tier. In 2025, the company actively seized demand growth opportunities from national device trade-in subsidy policies and increased battery capacity in 3C consumer devices driven by AI functions, closely addressing core client needs, fully leveraging its leading high-voltage LCO technology advantages, supplying first-tier smartphone and laptop brands, achieving full-year LCO sales of 65,300 mt (of which 4.5V and above high-voltage products accounted for 58%), with sales up 41.31% YoY. Tengyuan Cobalt mentioned its existing capacity in a previously released investor activity record. It stated that as of the end of Q1 2026, the company had capacity of 31,500 mt in metal content for cobalt products (including 8,000 mt in metal content for refined cobalt), 10,000 mt in metal content for nickel products, 10,000 mt in metal content for manganese products, 60,000 mt for copper products, 20,000 mt for ternary cathode precursor, 10,000 mt for Co3O4, and 5,000 mt for lithium carbonate. Additionally, when investors asked about the company's outlook on cobalt market trends this year, Tengyuan Cobalt stated that the strategic value and demand potential of cobalt are being redefined, with its resource attributes being continuously strengthened. Furthermore, as AI drives the emergence of new sectors such as humanoid robots, low-altitude economy, and robotic dogs, the accelerated industrialisation of ternary solid-state batteries will become the core new engine for cobalt demand growth, opening up medium and long-term, certain, and substantial incremental cobalt demand. Combined with cobalt's essential demand attributes, its growth potential will continue to shift upward.

The ex-China rare earth market this week exhibited a trend of "falling prices amid tight supply," with Pr-Nd oxide and metal prices generally marked down by approximately $5-10/kg. However, due to export controls and tightening supply, the premium on Chinese products outside China remained significant. Meanwhile, geopolitical rivalry and supply chain restructuring accelerated, with G7 finance ministers calling for urgent reduction of dependence on China and the establishment of recycling quota systems. On the capital front, Greenland Resources spent $35 million to acquire the high-grade Sarfartoq project to strengthen its magnetic material rare earth portfolio. Australia's Arafura officially finalised the final investment decision for the Nolans project. Combined with Brazil's launch of an antitrust investigation and Germany's Heraeus divesting its recycling business, these developments underscored the urgency of global decoupling and localization efforts.

Refined Cobalt: Spot refined cobalt prices continued to move sideways this week. Supply side, mainstream smelters held their offers steady, and traders maintained a stable spot-futures price spread ranging from parity to a premium of 8,000-10,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises continued purchasing as needed, maintaining tight control over raw material inventory levels. The current metal price spread between refined cobalt and lower-priced cobalt salt remained at a low level, and with cobalt salt being difficult to sell, enterprises showed weak willingness to re-dissolve for refined cobalt production. The market is likely to remain range-bound in the short term, and price rises still depend on effective upward momentum from the cobalt salt side. Cobalt Intermediate Products: Cobalt intermediate product prices remained generally stable this week. Supply side, suppliers held firm bullish expectations, with offers consistently held above $26/lb. Demand side performance was flat; affected by weak cobalt salt prices, downstream smelters only made just-in-time procurement, with some non-standard products transacting near $25/lb. On the quota front, 2025 Q4 miner quota approvals were largely completed, while Q1 quota approvals were slower due to procedural constraints. Combined with tight logistics capacity in the DRC and low transport priority for cobalt cargo, the arrival of large-volume shipments at Chinese ports may be further delayed. In the short term, weighed down by weak demand, prices are likely to remain stable, but once downstream orders materialize and restocking demand is released, intermediate product prices still have room for upward recovery. Cobalt Sulphate: Spot cobalt sulphate prices continued their gradual decline this week. Supply side, mainstream brand offer centers shifted down to 92,000-95,000 yuan/mt; some smelters and traders, under cash flow pressure, again made concessions on shipments, with low-priced cargoes probing down to 88,000-89,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream enterprises still primarily drew down existing inventory, with weak purchasing enthusiasm and only minimal just-in-time restocking. Some downstream players reported that LCO production schedules fell short of expectations, and they remained on the sidelines until orders were confirmed. Short-term prices are likely to continue moving sideways, with subsequent recovery still dependent on the release of downstream restocking demand.

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Rare Earth Prices Continued to Decline, Stopping Falling Near Weekend] The Pr-Nd oxide market remained in the doldrums overall this week. Affected by the continuous decline in futures prices, downstream metal plants were relatively cautious in procurement, and market trading remained sluggish. However, mid-week, driven by concentrated procurement from major downstream plants, market procurement volume recovered slightly, and suppliers raised their quotes again. As of today, Pr-Nd oxide prices fluctuated downward to 700,000-705,000 yuan/mt.

SMM May 21 News: Spot prices of tin, tantalum, and Pr-Nd oxide rose, and high molybdenum prices helped drive the minor metal sector higher. As of 10:22 on May 21, the minor metal sector was up 2.41%. In terms of individual stocks: Eastern Tantalum and China Tungsten High-Tech gained over 6%, while Haotong Technology, Tin Industry Co., Eastern Zirconium, Jinduicheng Molybdenum, and Huaxi Nonferrous led the gains. This rally was directly driven by improving spot market fundamentals, compounded by a weakening US dollar, strengthening strategic resource attributes, and emerging demand (AI, semiconductors, PV), which continued to fuel market expectations of a tight supply-demand balance in minor metals. Some market capital showed increased willingness to flow in, driving a rebound in the minor metal sector. Spot Market Tantalum The quoted price of tantalum ingot (Ta≥99.95%) on May 20 was 6,600-6,700 yuan/kg, with an average price of 6,650 yuan/kg, up 1.53% from the previous trading day. Recently, the tantalum market reached a turning point, with tantalum prices successfully hitting bottom, stabilizing, and initiating a rebound, with the industry's upward trend gradually becoming clearer. Currently, low-priced supplies within the industry chain are being circulated and cleared at an accelerated pace, quoted prices across all product categories are rising in tandem, and the overall market is steadily improving. Driven by expectations of positive news, some smelters proactively tightened their shipment pace and suspended external quotations. Available low-priced supplies in the market were essentially exhausted, and bullish sentiment among traders and suppliers continued to intensify. Combined with steadily rising upstream tantalum ore raw material costs providing strong support, tantalum oxide and tantalum ingot prices are expected to continue their steady rise going forward. Tin On May 21, the average price of SMM 1# tin rose 3.82% from the previous trading day. As tin prices rose, wait-and-see sentiment in the market intensified, and market transactions were sluggish. Currently, from a fundamental perspective: Supply side, most smelters maintained stable production as their main focus in May; Demand side, downstream purchasing remained cautious, with most purchases made according to order requirements. Rare Earth Spot market, on May 21, supported by demand from major manufacturers' procurement, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide rose 1.81% from the previous trading day. Yesterday afternoon, inquiry and procurement activities from magnetic material enterprises increased significantly, which directly boosted market trading activity. Affected by this, Pr-Nd oxide futures prices stopped falling and recovered today, and some Pr-Nd oxide traders chose to hold back from selling, which in turn pushed up Pr-Nd oxide spot prices as well. However, as downstream inquiry prices were relatively low, actual transaction performance was mediocre. In the short term, driven by the continued increase in downstream inquiry and procurement activities, Pr-Nd product prices are expected to move sideways and hold up well. Institutional Views Guojin Securities pointed out in a research report on May 18: Rare earths: From the beginning of the year to date, the price center has been continuously raised, which we believe is likely highly correlated with supply-side policy documents released from 2024 to 2025, as industry supply-side reform continues to advance. Full-year exports in 2025 were down 1% YoY, while exports since the beginning of 2026 have increased significantly, indicating that ex-China restocking demand remains substantial. The rare earth sector will continue to see dual upgrades in valuation and earnings, and 2026 is also a critical year for key targets to resolve horizontal competition issues. Tin: Guojin Securities believes that tin ingot invisible inventory is gradually drying up, and therefore tin prices are expected to strengthen amid macro liquidity replenishment or technology sector spillover effects. The tin supply-demand pattern is expected to improve over the long term. Molybdenum: Molybdenum concentrates were priced at 5,210 yuan/mtu this period, up 10.50% MoM; ferromolybdenum was priced at 324,000 yuan/mt this period, up 9.46% MoM. Imported ore has been drawn down to a significant extent, and domestic molybdenum prices have stabilized and rebounded. Steel bidding volumes remained robust, with destocking across the industry chain, gradually breaking the deadlock of "volume without price" in molybdenum, and the upward channel has become further confirmed. Molybdenum is also a defense metal, with inventory persistently low, and increased ex-China national defense spending may further boost molybdenum prices. Tantalum: The tantalum industry is expected to benefit from the upward cycle driven by high-end demand boost. Related targets: Eastern Tantalum, Xinjinlu, Jiangwu Equipment. CITIC Securities issued a research report on May 13, stating that in Q1 2025 and Q1 2026, earnings growth in the metals sector generally accelerated, with tungsten, lithium, lead-zinc, and rare earth magnetic materials leading the gains, while aluminum, copper (copper: BK1615 3,885.79, 0.58%), nickel-cobalt-tin-antimony, and gold have performed relatively weakly since the beginning of the year. Current metals sector valuations remain at reasonable levels, with aluminum, copper, nickel-cobalt-tin-antimony, and gold valuations at relatively low levels, and valuation rebounds remain promising. Industry dividends pulled back slightly, but projected dividend yields for some individual stocks still exceed 5%. Looking ahead to 2026, with liquidity shocks easing, supply disruptions occurring frequently, and select downstream sectors sustaining relatively high prosperity, it is recommended to continue focusing on allocation opportunities in lithium, copper, rare earths, strategic metals, aluminum, and gold sectors. Guotai Haitong Securities believes that rare earth prices have been gradually consolidating at lows since 2024, with the slowdown in domestic quota allocation continuing, and while expectations for ex-China rare earth development have been fermenting, actual progress may fall short of expectations. On the demand side, NEVs, home appliances, wind power, and other sectors have maintained the fundamental demand base, while humanoid robots represent a long-term upside option, and the curtain on a supply-demand reversal has already been gradually rising. As a strategic commodity in China, rare earth is expected to see a double boost in both earnings and valuation. Recommended reading: