The market quotation for praseodymium-neodymium oxide is in the range of 880,000 - 890,000 yuan/tonne, representing an increase of approximately 35,000 yuan/tonne compared to pre-holiday levels, a rise exceeding 4.12%. This marks a staggering 98% increase year-on-year. The quotation for praseodymium-neodymium metal stands at 1.07 - 1.08 million yuan/tonne, up by 50,000 yuan/tonne (4.88%) from pre-holiday prices, also reflecting a 95% year-on-year increase.

Looking ahead to March, production is expected to rebound as operations resume and the traditional demand recovery period begins. However, due to sluggish auto sales, weak overseas demand for ternary materials, and persistently high raw material prices, the pace of recovery may fall short of pre-holiday expectations.

Following the Spring Festival holiday, SMM research indicates that some raw material manufacturers have quoted prices in the range of 27,000-28,000, with a reluctance to sell. Meanwhile, metal-side manufacturers intend to adjust prices but have shown low willingness to purchase raw materials at high prices, due to the impact of downstream market sentiment. The downstream metal market has seen active inquiries but sluggish actual transactions. Major metal manufacturers have refrained from adjusting prices temporarily after the holiday, partly because some manufacturers have not yet resumed operations. Additionally, amid relatively high raw material prices, some manufacturers have increased their proportion of scrap procurement. Although downstream buyers are willing to enter the market, they remain on the sidelines waiting for price declines and have not yet made actual purchases. In terms of market sentiment, a strong wait-and-see attitude prevails, and some metal manufacturers are caught in a dilemma. On one hand, these manufacturers are reluctant to sell and have no intention of large-volume shipments, leading to their willingness to raise prices. However, they face multiple concerns: excessive price hikes would trigger a corresponding increase in ammonium rhenate raw material prices, pushing up their subsequent procurement costs; maintaining current prices, on the other hand, would squeeze profit margins due to rising raw material costs. On the other hand, the current rhenium price environment has already resulted in a downstream market characterized by active inquiries but weak transactions, and excessive price increases would likely further dampen downstream procurement willingness. This dilemma in price adjustment decisions has further underpinned the overall stability of the current rhenium market.

During the Chinese New Year holiday, overseas tungsten prices surged past China. By Feb 20, Rotterdam APT averaged $1,800/mtu, up 13.56% WoW, while European scrap drill bits jumped 12.5% to €90/kg. Indian scrap followed, with alloy blade FOB hitting $110-115/kg. Post-holiday, domestic APT opened at ¥1.05 million/mt, with a major producer hiking long-term prices by ¥100,000/mt. Global supply tightness continues to drive synchronized upside across markets.

February 24, 2026 News: Under the framework of the "investment order" mechanism, in response to the demand put forward by the local government of Aktobe Region, the national investment promotion company "KAZAKH INVEST" is actively advancing a major investment project for deep processing of chromium resources. The project aims to develop a chemical-metallurgical industrial cluster, cultivate high value-added manufacturing, and promote the upgrading of the regional industrial structure.

SMM, February 24: During the holiday period, trading in the domestic molybdenum market was scarce, and the market entered a closed state. The international molybdenum oxide price surged and then retreated. Before the holiday, stimulated by the sudden accident at a U.S. molybdenum enterprise and the earlier production cut news from Chilean copper-molybdenum mines, the international molybdenum oxide price briefly hit a high of 36 USD/lb Mo.

On the eve of the Spring Festival holiday, the lithium hydroxide market showed signs of a moderate price rebound. According to SMM data, on February 13, lithium hydroxide was quoted in a range of 130,000 to 145,000 RMB/ton, with an average price of 137,500 RMB/ton, an increase of 5,000 RMB/ton from February 6 (the previous Friday). As of February 13, the average price for February was provisionally reported at 139,575 RMB/ton. From the supply side, the overall lithium hydroxide supply remained tight in February. Although upstream smelters' willingness to release inventory slightly increased due to fluctuations in lithium carbonate futures prices, the overall sentiment to hold firm on prices remained strong, with quotes generally maintained at or above 140,000 RMB/ton. Pre-holiday macroeconomic policy expectations boosted sentiment in the lithium market. Coupled with the fact that few trading days remain in February, the pattern for the monthly average price has been largely set. Consequently, on the demand side, some material manufacturers increased their inquiries before the holiday to secure raw materials for post-holiday production. However, due to relatively sufficient earlier stockpiling and individual leading ternary material enterprises entering maintenance phases, the raw material shortage situation eased somewhat in the short term. Downstream companies showed limited acceptance of high raw material prices, with procurement intentions largely centered around the monthly average price. Overall, market transactions were still dominated by a tug-of-war between quoted prices and psychological price expectations, with actual trading volumes remaining quite limited. During the Spring Festival holiday, the market operated stably overall, with trading activity cooling down significantly. Affected by the hazardous chemical properties of lithium hydroxide, transportation came to a virtual standstill, and the market entered a seasonal quiet period. On the macro front, on the eve of the Spring Festival, the Chinese government announced the implementation of a zero-tariff policy for 53 African countries with which it has diplomatic relations, effective May 1st. It also promotes the signing of agreements on economic partnership for common development to expand market access for African products. This move will further deepen China-Africa economic and trade cooperation. In the long term, it is expected to broaden import channels for resources, including critical minerals, providing more solid resource support for China's new energy industry chain (such as battery raw materials). Meanwhile, significant movements also occurred in the international market. The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling that certain tariff policies from the Trump administration were illegal drove a broad uptick in overseas markets. It is expected that this trend will continue to reinforce domestic market confidence after the holiday. However, the minutes from the Federal Reserve's January meeting revealed significant divergence among policymakers regarding the future path of interest rates, which could exacerbate global capital market volatility and introduce uncertainty for the post-holiday market. Looking ahead to the post-holiday market: On the supply side, due to fewer production days and planned maintenance at some lithium salt plants, February's lithium hydroxide output is expected to decrease by more than 10% compared to January. On the demand side, as material manufacturers gradually resume production after the holiday, raw material procurement demand is expected to be gradually released, and market trading activity may pick up. However, the pace of the demand recovery still faces certain variables. On one hand, changes in the order structure of downstream battery cell manufacturers and the progress of new production line integration may affect the actual raw material procurement rhythm of material manufacturers. On the other hand, the price trends of upstream lithium ore and lithium carbonate, as well as the upcoming second-quarter contract negotiations, will also disturb the cost transmission and market expectations for lithium hydroxide, thereby exacerbating market uncertainty. Overall, the current lithium hydroxide market is in a phase of stabilizing before the holiday and gathering momentum afterward. The tug-of-war between supply and demand intensifies, intertwined with the influence of macroeconomic policies and the external environment. In the short term, prices are expected to remain volatile and range-bound. Subsequent trends will require close attention to downstream production start-up rates and upstream cost changes.

I. Cobalt Price Review During Chinese New Year During the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday (February 15 to February 23), domestic refined cobalt electronic night session trading saw prices rebound slightly from previous lows. The spot market was relatively sluggish due to logistics suspensions. Overseas prices showed divergence: the low end of standard-grade refined cobalt remained stable, while the high end increased by $0.1/lb; both low and high ends of alloy-grade refined cobalt rose by $0.3/lb and $0.4/lb, respectively. CIF China cobalt hydroxide prices remained stable. II. Market Dynamics Cuba's fuel shortage will force Sherritt to suspend its nickel-cobalt operations: Due to ongoing tight fuel supply in Cuba, Sherritt International Corp. plans to suspend mining and processing operations at its Moa nickel-cobalt joint project and has already scaled down operations ahead of schedule, with suspension expected in the short term. Planned maintenance will be conducted during the shutdown. Failure to secure fuel deliveries is the direct cause of the suspension; the company is communicating with relevant parties and evaluating alternative input sources. The project, in partnership with state-owned General Nickel Company SA, typically ships semi-finished products to a refinery in Alberta, Canada, which has an integrated capacity of approximately 38,200 mt. However, this production accounts for a relatively small share of global nickel supply, so the impact on the international market is limited, though it will affect the company's finances and Cuba's economy. Meanwhile, Energas SA, an energy joint venture in which Sherritt holds a one-third stake, continues normal operations, supplying natural gas for power generation to Cuba's power grid, unaffected by this incident. Overall, the suspension reflects the direct constraints of Cuba's long-term economic and energy crisis on industrial projects. Sumitomo's Madagascar nickel-cobalt project shuts down due to cyclone damage: Japan's Sumitomo Corporation stated on February 18 that its Ambatovy nickel-cobalt project in Madagascar was shut down after Tropical Cyclone Ghezani hit the island last week, causing facility damage. Operations were suspended immediately once signs of the cyclone became apparent, with safety as the top priority, the company said in a statement. It added that a detailed assessment of the damage, including equipment conditions and the impact on revenue, is currently underway. Sumitomo will work to identify the extent of the losses as soon as possible and collaborate with relevant parties to implement appropriate recovery and reconstruction measures, the statement added. A company spokesperson said the timeline for restarting operations is undetermined and assessing the extent of the damage is expected to take several weeks. Ambatovy is owned by Sumitomo, with state-owned Korea Mine Rehabilitation and Mineral Resources Corp (KOMIR) producing approximately 28,000 mt of nickel and about 2,500 mt of cobalt in 2024. III. Post-Holiday Outlook Supply side, cobalt raw materials from the DRC are still unable to be replenished in the short term, and enterprises are facing pressure from raw material shortages. Coupled with production halts at some enterprises during the Chinese New Year holiday, production plans have been reduced. Refined cobalt production in February is expected to remain low, and the overall supply of cobalt salts is projected to decline slightly. Demand side, prior to the Chinese New Year, some downstream ternary cathode precursor enterprises showed increased purchase willingness and active inquiries due to concerns about rising cobalt sulphate prices after the holiday. However, as logistics were about to halt at that time, actual transactions were relatively limited. With the resumption of logistics after the holiday and downstream enterprises gradually resuming production and restocking, demand is expected to be gradually released. Looking ahead, against the backdrop of continued support from raw material costs, phased tightening of supply, and phased recovery in demand, refined cobalt and cobalt salt prices are expected to resume an upward trend.

During the Chinese New Year holiday, overseas precious metals were affected by multiple factors such as US macro policies and Middle East geopolitical conflicts, with silver prices showing a V-shaped reversal trend, falling first and then rising. As of the close on February 23, London spot silver settled at $88.17 per ounce, up approximately 13.8% from the pre-holiday closing price of $77.46 per ounce on February 13. Due to the drag from pre-holiday US stock declines and weakening liquidity, overseas precious metals continued their decline at the beginning of last week, with silver and platinum once falling below the 60-day moving average and gold losing the 20-day moving average. Subsequently, as the US announced that the Q4 GDP growth rate fell short of expectations, precious metals stopped falling and rebounded. After the US Supreme Court ruled to revoke most tariffs imposed by the Trump administration last year and Trump immediately announced an additional 10% tariff on globally imported goods to the US within the next 150 days, market concerns over trade conflicts and economic downturn were reignited. Coupled with the deadlock in US-Iran negotiations potentially worsening the Middle East situation, which stimulated safe-haven demand, precious metals surged significantly during the session and recovered previous losses, with silver leading the gains. During the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday, refined silver supply from copper, lead, and zinc smelters mainly maintained stable production, while large-scale downstream enterprises such as silver nitrate and alloy manufacturers generally suspended operations for the holiday. Except for a few small and medium-sized silver-based material, jewelry, and some industrial users processing urgent orders normally, downstream consumption temporarily stalled due to holiday factors and the high silver price and premium market conditions. Although multiple smelters mentioned accumulated in-factory inventory after the holiday, compared to previous years, the destocking speed for the accumulated inventory after the 2026 holiday was faster. Some manufacturers transferred in-factory inventory to social warehouses on the first day after the holiday and prepared for delivery or sold directly at market premiums. Smelter in-factory inventory levels are expected to gradually decrease to safe levels. Looking ahead this week, although import tariffs on investment-grade gold and silver are exempted, the policy's impact on US dollar assets and its boost to precious metal allocation demand will both benefit gold and silver prices. The market will further price in the impact of Trump's tariffs. In the spot market, physical investment demand for precious metals may again see stockpiling and rush to buy amid continuous price rises. Some downstream enterprises expect to purchase physical goods from the exchange after the delivery of the SHFE February contract ends, thus cautiously watching the high premium quotes for circulating supplies after the holiday. Additionally, it is worth noting that the significant volatility in silver prices in early 2026 and the hedging liquidity pressure brought by the exchange's raised margins have prompted intermediate silver-containing material processing manufacturers to weigh between maintaining customer relationships with orders at breakeven or even small losses and halting production to stop losses. Although downstream enterprises resumed normal operations after the holiday, most industrial enterprises basically did not take new orders during the holiday. Post-holiday orders for silver nitrate and electronic/electrical intermediate processing products are expected to be average. Spot transactions are mainly driven by investment demand, with jewelry and investment silver bar processing recovering quickly. Industrial consumption end-users currently have low acceptance of the significantly increased prices and post-holiday spot premiums, thus placing orders relatively cautiously. After the holiday, the precious metals market is partially hot but overall sluggish. Besides macro disturbances and geopolitical changes, subsequent attention should still be paid to premium changes after the delivery of the SHFE front-month contract and whether low inventory in overseas COMEX will again cause price anomalies.

[SMM Analysis] Pre-holiday lithium ore market stabilized with a wait-and-see sentiment; post-holiday supply-demand tug-of-war intertwines with macroeconomic factors.