Next week, there will be limited macroeconomic data releases, mainly including the final March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for the US and the final March one-year inflation expectations for the US. At present, key events outside China remain the geopolitical issues in the Middle East, as well as the views of representatives from various countries on global trade development at the upcoming 14th WTO Ministerial Conference (MC14). LME lead, markets outside China will continue to be affected by geopolitical issues, with damage to the economic environment and prolonged logistics cycles dragging LME lead lower consecutively to a near one-year low. However, we need to note that the SHFE/LME price ratio widened, allowing more imported lead to flow into the Chinese market, while spot cargo availability in Southeast Asia tightened and spot premiums rose, with LME Cash-3M contango narrowing to -$41.44/mt. Next week, attention should be paid to the possibility of lead prices probing lower and then rebounding after macro headwinds are fully priced in. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,840-1,930/mt next week. SHFE lead, dragged down by the decline in overseas lead prices, the SHFE/LME price ratio widened and expectations for lead ingot imports increased, especially against the backdrop of China’s lead ingot social inventory standing at a 16-month high, sending lead prices lower in succession. At the same time, we need to note that inventory at domestic smelters remained on a declining trend, losses in secondary lead widened, and the inversion between secondary lead and primary lead prices may become a factor stopping lead prices from falling. In addition, downstream enterprises purchased on dips, and attention should be paid to the subsequent decline in social inventory. If destocking materializes, lead prices may stop falling and rebound. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,100-16,750 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,100-16,550 yuan/mt. For primary lead and secondary lead, supply continued to rise as smelters resumed operations after maintenance. On the demand side, downstream enterprises' short-term restocking on dips may facilitate destocking, but from April to May is the traditional off-season for the lead-acid battery market, and the sustainability of downstream enterprise procurement is limited, so spot lead premiums are expected to struggle to continue rising.

[SMM Daily Review: Low-Priced Sell-Offs Fueled Panic Sentiment, Triggering a Phased Decline in High-Grade NPI] March 20 News: SMM's upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.84, down 0.04 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.63, up 0.04 MoM.

SMM News, March 20: In the morning session, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated downward, with the price center falling sharply from the previous trading day. Affected by the decline in aluminum prices, overall purchasing sentiment rose today, prompting sellers to hold prices firm. Mainstream transaction prices in the market today were concentrated around the average price of the SHFE aluminum 04 contract to +20 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 3.2, up 0.06 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.23, up 0.07 MoM. Today, SHFE aluminum futures prices plunged sharply. Coupled with downstream processing enterprises' procurement and stockpiling demand ahead of the weekend market closure, overall buying sentiment in the central China market was high, with strong bullish sentiment. Suppliers showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm, and there was no downward trend in market quotations. However, the pass-through of prices to downstream enterprises resulted in relatively limited premiums. Ultimately, the overall quotation range in the central China market was concentrated at central China prices plus 10 yuan to plus 60 yuan, while actual mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at central China prices plus 30 yuan to plus 40 yuan. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.61, up 0.03 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.51, up 0.08 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in mainstream consumption regions fell by 3,000 mt MoM today, with destocking mainly coming from Wuxi and Gongyi. In the short term, after the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingot inventory has continued its seasonal buildup. Affected by bullish market sentiment, premiums are expected to maintain a narrowing trend.

[SHFE/LME Price Ratio Rebounded and Fluctuated Around 7.4]: This week, the SHFE/LME price ratio rebounded and fluctuated around 7.4, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. Outside China, geopolitical disruptions were frequent. After the US Fed kept interest rates unchanged, the market bet on a US Fed rate hike, and LME zinc fell below key levels. Subsequently, bearish factors were gradually digested, and LME zinc rebounded from lows.

[Australian Typhoons Continued to Disrupt, and Import TCs Kept Falling]: Weekly data showed that the average weekly domestic SMM Zn50 TC held flat at 1,550 yuan/mt in metal content, while the SMM Imported Zinc Concentrate Index fell $6.02/dmt MoM to $5.23/dmt...

[Downstream Enterprises Actively Priced and Purchased, with Spot Transactions Improving Significantly During the Week]: This week, Ningbo spot premiums continued to rise, with the weekly average price up 20 yuan/mt WoW. As of this Friday, Ningbo spot prices against the 2604 contract were at a discount of 30 yuan/mt, with a premium of 50 yuan/mt against Shanghai, and the premium against Shanghai widened during the week..

SMM News, March 20: Aluminum ingot: On March 20, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was reported at 24,060, down 430, with a discount of 180 against the current-month contract, narrowing by 5 (unit: yuan/mt). After opening sharply lower in the night session, the SHFE aluminum 04 contract gradually rebounded. Affected by aluminum prices remaining in the doldrums, the South China spot market was relatively firm, and buyers’ overall procurement sentiment was moderate today. Sellers habitually held prices firm, but as Friday coincided with a faster pace of shipments, overall support for firm prices was relatively limited. Today, mainstream transaction prices in the market were concentrated at premiums of -200 yuan/mt to -170 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 04 contract.

[Zinc Prices Broke Lower and Moved Downward, with Good Trading This Week]: Spot premiums in Tianjin rose slightly this week, up 10 yuan/mt WoW. As of this Friday, in China, standard brands were quoted at discounts of around 20-70 yuan/mt against the 2604 contract, while high-priced brands were quoted at discounts of around 10 yuan/mt to premiums of around 10 yuan/mt against the 2604 contract. Tianjin was quoted at a discount of around 10 yuan/mt against Shanghai.

[Futures Zinc Prices Fell Sharply, While Spot Premiums Strengthened During the Week]: Shanghai spot premiums strengthened this week, with the weekly average price up 20 yuan/mt WoW. As of this Friday, ordinary domestic brands were quoted at discounts of 30 yuan/mt to 20 yuan/mt against the 2604 contract, while the high-priced brand Shuangyan was quoted at a premium of 50 yuan/mt against the 2604 contract.

By late March, the consumption driven by dealers' customary post-holiday restocking in the lead-acid battery market had been largely released. Meanwhile, end-use consumption in the e-bike and automotive battery markets was generally mediocre, especially as the impact of the new national standard for e-bikes disrupted supporting orders for new vehicles, and some lead-acid battery enterprises only maintained production based on sales. Lead prices fell this week. In the initial stage, downstream enterprises restocked at lower prices based on demand, but after lead prices fell again in the second half of the week, some enterprises became more cautious in procuring raw lead materials.