This week's stainless steel futures market reflected a classic divergence: external macro headwinds drove paper weakness, while domestic spot fundamentals held firm. We break down what drove the disconnect and what to watch next.

When asked, "What were the sales volume and pricing of copper foil produced by your company in April 2026?" North Copper responded on May 19 via the investor interaction platform: The company's copper foil sales are performing well with balanced production and sales; the product is priced and sold on a market-based basis according to market supply and demand. North Copper also responded on May 19: The company's share price fluctuations are influenced by a combination of factors including the macro environment, market sentiment, capital flows, and the company's own performance. The recent share price fluctuations have been largely in line with the trend of publicly listed firms in the copper sector. The company has always focused on enhancing intrinsic value as the core of its market capitalization management, and is committed to the long-term alignment of corporate value and market performance through focusing on core business growth, optimizing governance structure, strengthening information disclosure, and implementing shareholder return plans. The content of the earnings briefing announced by North Copper on May 8 showed: 1 What is the current construction progress of the new 10kt rolled copper foil production line, and in which month of 2026 is it expected to be completed? North Copper responded: Some production lines of the company's 50,000 mt/year high performance rolled copper strip and foil and 2 million m² CCL project have reached the intended usable condition. The main products include high performance copper and copper alloy strip and rolled copper foil, of which copper alloy strip capacity is 25,000 mt/year and rolled copper foil capacity is 5,000 mt/year. 2 What caused the negative operating cash flow, and what is the impact on the company going forward? North Copper responded: The negative net cash flow from operating activities in Q1 was mainly due to two reasons: first, rising non-ferrous metal prices led to higher overall value of copper raw materials, increasing capital occupation; second, under the impact of geopolitical factors, international shipping rerouting and tight domestic railway dispatching caused copper raw material arrivals at the plant to be delayed versus plan, extending the capital turnover period. The company's current cash flow level can effectively support daily operations and debt repayment. Going forward, the company will take targeted measures to improve the situation. 3 Questions regarding the progress of Hujiaoyu mine asset injection. Specifically: Has the preliminary preparation work for the asset injection (such as auditing, valuation, and plan evaluation) been initiated? Does the company plan to complete this asset injection within 2026? Are there any material obstacles or uncertainties in the process that need to be disclosed to investors? Beyond strictly fulfilling the commitment to inject within 24 months, does the company's management have a clear goal and timetable to "strive for early completion"? What specific stage has the related work progressed to? North Copper responded: Hujiaoyu Mining Company, a subsidiary of the company's controlling shareholder Zhongtiaoshan Group, obtained the mining permit for newly added reserves on March 27, 2026. Preliminary work for obtaining the mine safety production permit is currently being actively advanced, and the conditions for injection into the publicly listed firm are not yet met. The company will initiate the asset injection process in a timely manner after all the above mining permits are obtained, fulfilling the relevant commitments. 4 After the completion of the 50,000 mt rolled copper foil and strip project, are there any further plans for new copper foil capacity construction and expansion? North Copper responded: Some production lines of the company's 50,000 mt/year high performance rolled copper strip and foil and 2 million m² CCL project have not yet been completed, and capacity has not been fully released. There are currently no new copper foil capacity expansion plans. 5 How does the company's management plan to manage market capitalization? North Copper responded: In accordance with the requirements of Regulatory Guidelines for Listed Companies No. 10 — Market Capitalization Management, the company will make comprehensive utilization of lawful and compliant methods, promote positive interaction between value and market capitalization through improving operational quality, strengthening information disclosure, and deepening investor communication, continuously improve and strengthen market capitalization management, and carry out scientific, effective, and compliant market capitalization management practices. 6 Given the strong Q1 2026 results, the share price has underperformed peers with weaker results. Does the company have any undisclosed adverse events? North Copper responded: In addition to operating performance, the company's share price is also influenced by various factors including the international situation, policy environment, financial market liquidity, capital market atmosphere, and investor psychological expectations. The company strictly fulfills its information disclosure obligations in accordance with relevant laws and regulations, and there are no material matters that should have been disclosed but were not. 7 What new progress will the company make in smart mines and digital factories this year? North Copper responded: The company will continue to advance the construction of smart mines and digital factories, deepen and expand new scenarios for digital-intelligent integration applications, and accelerate the implementation of the Tongkuangyu mine smart mine project. Within the year, the company plans to complete the installation of system equipment for the data center, integrated management and control hall, and other facilities. The digital-intelligent building is expected to be completed and put into operation. The 5G smart communication hub, industrial-grade ring network, and LHD operation positioning and metering projects are expected to achieve phased results, effectively enhancing the digital-intelligent level and operational efficiency of mining operations. 8 What are the main directions of R&D expenditure? North Copper responded: The company's R&D expenditure is focused on six core areas: resource reserve expansion and production increase, efficient mining and beneficiation technologies, smelting technology innovation, high-end copper-based materials, comprehensive utilization of resources, and intelligent mining. North Copper's Q1 2026 report released on April 29 showed: In Q1, the company achieved revenue of 10.044 billion yuan, up 46.89% YoY; net profit attributable to the parent company's shareholders was 615 million yuan, up 65.74% YoY. Regarding the reason for the revenue increase, North Copper stated in its Q1 report: It was mainly due to increased product sales volume and price increases. In addition, North Copper's 2025 annual report showed: The company achieved revenue of 27.916 billion yuan in 2025, up 15.80% YoY; net profit attributable to the parent company's shareholders was 791 million yuan, up 29.01% YoY. Major product production in 2025: copper cathode 300,300 mt, sulphuric acid 766,000 mt, gold ingots 6.4 mt, and silver ingots 68.5 mt. North Copper stated in its 2025 annual report: The company is primarily engaged in copper mining, ore beneficiation, smelting, and rolling processing. It currently has captive mines with annual ore processing of 9 million mt and self-produced copper metal content of 43,000 mt, copper smelting capacity of 320,000 mt, gold ingots 10.8 mt, silver ingots 170 mt, and sulphuric acid 1.22 million mt. It also recovers valuable metals including platinum, palladium, selenium, and bismuth through comprehensive utilization. Copper deep-processing products include high performance copper and copper alloy strip and rolled copper foil, of which copper alloy strip capacity is 25,000 mt/year and rolled copper foil capacity is 5,000 mt/year. The company has established an integrated industry chain from mining, ore beneficiation, smelting to rolling processing. The company's "Zhongtiaoshan" brand Grade-A copper is registered on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, and the "Zhongtiaoshan" brand gold and silver ingots are registered on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The company's mineral exploration status disclosed in North Copper's 2025 annual report showed: The company completed the detailed exploration project for deep replacement resources at the Tongkuangyu copper mine (below the 80m elevation), with the following main work completed: exploration tunnels 140.6 m, drilling chambers 12/2,823.6 m³, drilling 12 holes (including 3 hydrogeological holes), drilling volume 7,268.62 m, 1:2000 specialized hydrogeological and environmental geological survey 6 km², geophysical logging 2,065.61 m, and pumping tests on 3 holes; 8,091 sample analyses and tests, 46 sets of rock and ore tests, 99 bulk density samples, 20 copper phase analyses, 10 complete chemical analyses, and 12 complete water quality analyses. On February 20, 2025, the Shanxi Mining Association organized and completed the supervision and field acceptance of the detailed exploration project, issuing the supervision report and field acceptance report. In early March, the company completed the compilation of the Detailed Hydrogeological and Environmental Survey Report for the Deep Part of Tongkuangyu Mine. On March 17, the report was reviewed and approved by experts organized by the Shanxi Mining Association. In May, the company completed the compilation of the Detailed Exploration Report for Deep Replacement Resources at Tongkuangyu Copper Mine, Yuanqu County, Shanxi Province (hereinafter referred to as the Report). On May 23, the report was reviewed and approved by experts organized by the Shanxi Mining Association, and review opinions were issued. According to the Report, as of December 31, 2024, within the 80m to -325m elevation range of the Tongkuangyu mining area, the cumulative identified industrial ore body (No. 5) copper ore resources totaled 103.718 million mt, with an average grade of 0.84% and metal content of 869,600 mt. Associated gold metal content was 8,930 kg with an average grade of 0.09 g/t; associated molybdenum metal content was 3,727 mt with an average grade of 0.011%. Low-grade copper ore resources totaled 34.625 million mt, with an average grade of 0.25% and metal content of 88,200 mt. The explored resources reached a large scale, achieving significant exploration results and providing solid resource support for the company's industry chain layout. Regarding the company's copper ore resource reserves, North Copper disclosed in its annual report that as of the end of 2025, the Tongkuangyu mine retained copper ore resources of 4.664 million mt above the 80m elevation, with copper metal content of 1.2501 million mt. Meanwhile, below the 80m elevation at the bottom of the company's existing Tongkuangyu mine mining rights, the cumulative identified industrial ore body (No. 5) copper ore resources totaled 3.718 million mt, with an average grade of 0.84% and metal content of 869,600 mt. Regarding the 2026 production and operation plan, North Copper mentioned in its 2025 annual report: Major product production targets: copper cathode 300,000 mt, sulphuric acid 800,000 mt, gold ingots 6 mt, and silver ingots 60 mt, to maximize economic benefits. Regarding the outlook for copper, some institutions hold the following views: Tony Sage, CEO of Critical Metals, noted in a recent report that market participants remain bullish on the copper price outlook, driven by long-term demand from AI infrastructure, power grid modernization, and the global energy transition, coupled with supply constraints. He added that in the long run, the copper market may face a potential supply deficit, which will provide support for copper prices. (Jin10 Data) A CITIC Securities research report noted that as Freeport once again delayed the production resumptions schedule for its Indonesian project and comprehensively lowered its production guidance for 2026-2027, global major miners' 2026 production expectations have officially entered a decline, and the potential impact of subsequent extreme weather may further amplify supply disruptions. We expect that the solid supply-demand fundamentals demonstrated by the better-than-expected destocking in China, along with easing macro headwinds, will support copper prices to stabilize at $13,000/mt in 2Q26, while the gap between supply-demand expectations could drive copper prices to challenge previous highs. We are optimistic about the allocation opportunity in the copper sector where earnings elasticity and valuation elasticity resonate.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Tin Prices Moved Sideways After Declining from Highs, Spot Market Placed Orders on Dips and Adopted a Wait-and-See Approach]

Preliminary census data from the US Department of Commerce reveals that US imports of cold rolled coil (CRC) totaled 54,744 metric tons (mt) in March 2026, falling 24.8% from February and plummeting 53.2% compared to March 2025. Total import value shrank to $51.63 million, down from $69.34 million in February and $133.43 million a year ago. Canada remained the largest exporter to the US at 17,805 mt (up from 14,707 mt in February), followed by South Korea (8,008 mt), Vietnam (4,858 mt), Mexico (4,343 mt), and the Netherlands (4,210 mt). This substantial decline in foreign supply reflects an intentional destocking process and cautious purchasing strategies by US manufacturers experiencing macro headwinds.

[SMM SHFE Tin Brief: SHFE Tin Stopped Falling and Rebounded, Closing Up 2.94%, as Macro Suppression and Bottom Support Pulled Against Each Other]

SMM Nickel News, March 24: Macro and Market News: (1) Iran’s Parliament Speaker Qalibaf denied having held talks with the US side and accused fake news of manipulating the financial and oil markets; Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would launch new attacks on US targets and called Trump’s remarks “psychological warfare” (2) Israeli officials said Washington had set April 9 as the target date for ending the war. Talks between Iran and the US were expected to be held later this week in Pakistan, adding that Washington had not yet informed Israel of any contact with Iran’s Parliament Speaker Qalibaf. Spot Market: On March 24, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell 1,700 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 6,250 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China’s mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel were at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: After surging sharply in the night session, the most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract pulled back in the morning session, closing the morning session at 132,830 yuan/mt, up 0.69%. Current nickel prices were in a stage of intense tug-of-war between macro headwinds and supply risks. Short term, tighter Indonesian RKAB quotas, continued gains in ore prices, and the risk of sulfur supply disruptions provided solid support below, but high inventory and the slow recovery in end-use demand still capped upside room. The core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract was expected at 130,000-140,000 yuan/mt in the short term.

SMM Nickel News, March 23: Macro and market news: (1) Trump demanded that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, or its power stations would be destroyed. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded that if Trump's threat to attack Iranian power stations were carried out, Iran would immediately take four measures, including fully closing the Strait of Hormuz. (2) Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, said at the China Development Forum 2026 Annual Conference on March 22 that China would continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy. A range of monetary policy tools, including the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), policy interest rates, and open market operations, would be used in a comprehensive manner to maintain ample liquidity. Spot market: On March 23, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell by 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,550 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the mainstream China electrodeposited nickel brands were at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) fluctuated at highs during the session and closed the morning session at 134,810 yuan/mt, up 1.28%. Nickel prices are currently in a phase of intense tug-of-war between macro headwinds and supply risks. Short term, tighter Indonesian RKAB quotas, continued increases in ore prices, and the risk of sulfur supply disruptions have formed a solid bottom, but high inventory and the slow recovery in end-use demand still capped upside room. The core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected at 130,000-140,000 yuan/mt in the short term.

Copper prices fluctuated downward this week. At the start of the week, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts continued to cool, and the market even began to price in possible rate hikes, weakening expectations for macro liquidity and putting copper prices under pressure, causing them to pull back. Mid-week, after the US Fed kept rates unchanged, the US PPI annual rate rose more than expected to 3.4, further weighing on market expectations for interest rate cuts within the year. According to market sources, traders no longer priced in any US Fed interest rate cuts this year, and bets on easing expectations faded further. The continued escalation in US-Iran tensions fueled safe-haven sentiment, while elevated oil prices intensified concerns over inflation and economic weakness. The stronger US dollar index also suppressed copper prices. In terms of fund positioning, the futures were mainly marked by long liquidation, with risk-off sentiment among funds rising and willingness to take profits at high levels increasing. Overall, macro headwinds dominated market sentiment, and copper prices came under pressure and corrected lower. Fundamentals side, copper concentrates TC continued to pull back. This week, the imported copper concentrates index was reported at -$67.32/mt, further lower WoW and at a historical low, with smelting pressure continuing to mount. In copper cathode, the continued downward shift in the center of copper prices significantly stimulated restocking demand from downstream enterprises, and spot inventory showed a rapid destocking trend. The import window remained open, but actual subsequent inflows of imported cargo still need further observation. According to SMM, orders at most downstream enterprises surged, with generally strong enthusiasm for buying the dip. Some sectors were notably boosted by the pullback in copper prices, and order performance improved. Looking ahead to next week, the macro logic remains unchanged. Cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, intertwined with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, will continue to weigh on copper prices. However, fundamental support for copper prices is gradually strengthening. Faster destocking and stronger downstream restocking willingness will limit downside room, and copper prices are expected to continue fluctuating near the range in the short term. LME copper is expected to fluctuate between $11,700/mt and $12,500/mt, and SHFE copper between 91,000 yuan/mt and 97,000 yuan/mt. Spot side, as downstream restocking continues and inventory is drawn down, spot premiums are expected to continue to recover, but inflows of imported cargo and suppliers selling on strength will cap upside room. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2604 contract are expected to range from a discount of 120 yuan/mt to a premium of 20 yuan/mt.

Next week, there will be limited macroeconomic data releases, mainly including the final March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for the US and the final March one-year inflation expectations for the US. At present, key events outside China remain the geopolitical issues in the Middle East, as well as the views of representatives from various countries on global trade development at the upcoming 14th WTO Ministerial Conference (MC14). LME lead, markets outside China will continue to be affected by geopolitical issues, with damage to the economic environment and prolonged logistics cycles dragging LME lead lower consecutively to a near one-year low. However, we need to note that the SHFE/LME price ratio widened, allowing more imported lead to flow into the Chinese market, while spot cargo availability in Southeast Asia tightened and spot premiums rose, with LME Cash-3M contango narrowing to -$41.44/mt. Next week, attention should be paid to the possibility of lead prices probing lower and then rebounding after macro headwinds are fully priced in. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,840-1,930/mt next week. SHFE lead, dragged down by the decline in overseas lead prices, the SHFE/LME price ratio widened and expectations for lead ingot imports increased, especially against the backdrop of China’s lead ingot social inventory standing at a 16-month high, sending lead prices lower in succession. At the same time, we need to note that inventory at domestic smelters remained on a declining trend, losses in secondary lead widened, and the inversion between secondary lead and primary lead prices may become a factor stopping lead prices from falling. In addition, downstream enterprises purchased on dips, and attention should be paid to the subsequent decline in social inventory. If destocking materializes, lead prices may stop falling and rebound. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,100-16,750 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,100-16,550 yuan/mt. For primary lead and secondary lead, supply continued to rise as smelters resumed operations after maintenance. On the demand side, downstream enterprises' short-term restocking on dips may facilitate destocking, but from April to May is the traditional off-season for the lead-acid battery market, and the sustainability of downstream enterprise procurement is limited, so spot lead premiums are expected to struggle to continue rising.

[Macro Pressures Combined With High Inventory, SHFE Aluminum Remained Under Pressure at Elevated Levels in the Short Term] Continued destocking in LME inventory provided bottom support for LME aluminum, but amid tightening fund liquidity and profit-taking by bulls, upward momentum was insufficient, and the backwardation structure weakened somewhat. In China, social inventory rose to a high for the same period in nearly five years, and the inventory buildup cycle had not ended. High inventory and weak spot fundamentals jointly weighed on upward momentum. The divergence between domestic and overseas drivers continued, the SHFE/LME price ratio kept weakening, and SHFE aluminum fell below the key threshold of 25,000 yuan/mt, remaining mainly under pressure at elevated levels in the short term.