SMM May 7: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market showed mixed performance. SHFE copper rose 0.43%, SHFE aluminum fell 1.76%, SHFE lead fell 0.36%, SHFE zinc rose 0.41%, SHFE tin rose 3.16%, and SHFE nickel fell 3.33%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 1.85%, the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.49%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 0.08%, the most-traded silicon metal contract rose 2.03%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures rose 4.79%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore rose 0.55%, rebar rose 0.68%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.29%, and stainless steel fell 1.12%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.22%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.2%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.22%, LME aluminum fell 1.16%, LME lead rose 0.23%, LME zinc fell 0.29%, LME tin fell 1.71%, and LME nickel fell 0.13%. Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold rose 0.39% and COMEX silver rose 1.35%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 1.11%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 3.43%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 3.21%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 1.71%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract fell 3.35%, closing at 2,355.5 points. As of 11:41 on May 7, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot cargo and fundamentals Nickel: On May 7, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 5,050 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,150 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro front China: [PBOC reverse repo operations resulted in a net drain of 99.2 billion yuan for the day] The PBOC conducted 27 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 126.2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net drain of 99.2 billion yuan was achieved for the day. [HKEX CEO: LME warehouses in Hong Kong nearing full capacity] HKEX CEO Bonnie Y. Chan said that the storage capacity of a series of LME-approved warehouses in Hong Kong was nearing saturation. The LME began approving metal warehouses in Hong Kong last year. Speaking at a seminar during LME Asia Week in Hong Kong, Chan said the LME currently had 15 warehouses in Hong Kong, compared with just 4 a year ago. She called this an important milestone in establishing physical market connectivity. LME and Hong Kong Exchanges will explore more collaborative projects, including futures and RMB-denominated products, to build a comprehensive commodities ecosystem in Asia. (Jin10 Data) US dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index fell 0.01% to 98.01. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said on Wednesday that the war with Iran increasingly appeared to be an inflationary shock to the economy. Although the impact on employment and economic growth was not yet evident, concerns about supply chain disruptions and sustained price increases were intensifying. "This is not yet a 'stagflation' shock," meaning the kind that hits the job market while pushing up inflation and forces the US Fed to decide which of its policy objectives faces greater risk, Goolsbee said after attending the Milken Institute conference in Los Angeles. "This is just an inflation shock. And the longer this persists, the more uneasy I become." According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 93.5%, with a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut probability of 6.5%. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July was 86.5%, with cumulative probabilities of a 25-basis-point cut at 13.0% and a 50-basis-point cut at 0.5%. (Jin10 Data) Other currencies: On the first day of resumed trading in the Japanese market, the yen broadly stabilized against other G10 currencies and Asian currencies. However, analysts noted that the yen's downside room against the US dollar is likely to be limited due to potential foreign exchange intervention by Japanese authorities. Analysts at Maybank stated in a foreign exchange research report that the unpredictability of Japanese authorities' actions would limit the upside room for USD/JPY in the short term. Given that three suspected interventions have already occurred after the currency pair breached the 157.00 level, the market is now increasingly wary of pushing the dollar above that level. (Jin10 Data) Data: China's April foreign exchange reserves (TBD), US April Challenger enterprise layoffs, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 2, US March construction spending MoM, US April New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, Eurozone March retail sales MoM, France March trade balance, and Switzerland April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate are scheduled for release today. In addition, 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a panel discussion at a conference. Crude oil: As of 11:41, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 0.86% and Brent up 0.87%. The market weighed the prospects of a Middle East peace agreement. A decline in US crude oil inventory last week supported oil prices. US EIA Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil inventory for the week ending May 1 was -648,000 barrels, compared to the previous value of -796,000 barrels. US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending May 1 was -2.313 million barrels, versus expectations of -3.291 million barrels and a previous value of -6.234 million barrels. US EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory for the week ending May 1 was -5.224 million barrels, compared to the previous value of -7.121 million barrels. According to federal data released Wednesday, US energy inventories continued to decline rapidly due to supply shocks caused by the Middle East war, highlighting the tightening supply problem as the energy crisis continued to spread. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), refined product inventories, including diesel, plunged by 1.3 million barrels last week to the lowest level since April 2003. These inventories are currently 11% below the five-year seasonal average. Due to refinery shutdowns, diesel prices recently hit record highs in Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan. (CNN) According to a person familiar with the matter, the Trump administration is exploring the use of oil resources beneath US military bases and other Department of Defense sites to replenish the nation's dwindling emergency reserves. The source said no decision has been made on this potential move. This comes as the US government has pledged to explore innovative ways to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which was further depleted during the Iran war. (Jin10 Data) According to a foreign media survey, OPEC's crude oil production fell to a 36-year low last month as the ongoing Iran war continued to obstruct Persian Gulf exports and forced more oil fields to shut down. The survey showed that OPEC's April crude oil production decreased by 420,000 barrels per day to 20.55 million barrels per day, the lowest level since 1990, mainly dragged down by further production declines in Kuwait and Iran. The survey showed that Kuwait saw the largest production drop last month, with daily output falling by 470,000 barrels to 800,000 barrels per day, less than one-third of pre-war levels. The country's exports have fallen to just 22,000 barrels per day. Iran followed, with production declining by 180,000 barrels per day to 3.05 million barrels per day, doubling the cumulative production cuts since the war began. OPEC also suffered another blow last week. The UAE announced its withdrawal from the organization, following years of friction with the group's leader Saudi Arabia over production limits. The April survey still included UAE data, as the UAE's withdrawal did not officially take effect until May 1. (Bloomberg) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Multiple Macro Factors Drove Futures Higher, Spot Market Fell into Stalemate with Scarce Transactions]

SMM Nickel News, May 7: Macro and market news: (1) US ADP employment data for April recorded 109,000 new jobs, slightly above expectations of 99,000, while the previous reading was revised down from 62,000 to 61,000. (2) Iran's Permanent Mission to the United Nations proposed a feasible solution to the Strait of Hormuz issue: permanently ending the war, lifting the maritime blockade, and restoring normal passage. Spot market: On May 7, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 5,050 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,150 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -800-200 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2606 contract plunged sharply during the night session and hovered at lows during the morning session, closing at 148,450 yuan/mt, down 3.33%. Trump explicitly stated on the evening of May 6 that a US-Iran deal was "very likely," that the negotiation framework had been largely finalised, that the resumption of passage through the Strait of Hormuz was in sight, and that the sulphur supply crisis was expected to be resolved, leading to a sharp pullback in nickel prices. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways in the range of 145,000-150,000 yuan/mt, with the center likely shifting downward, as the key support below comes from the rigid cost support brought by Indonesia's new HPM policy.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,400.5/mt, touched a high of $13,462/mt early in the session before its center fluctuated downward, dipped to $13,328/mt before the center rose, and ultimately moved sideways to close at $13,391.5/mt, up 2.22%, with trading volume at 27,000 lots and open interest at 268,000 lots, an increase of 1,485 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 103,350 yuan/mt, touched a high of 103,370 yuan/mt right at the open, then its center dipped to 102,850 yuan/mt before staying high and moving sideways, ultimately closing at 103,160 yuan/mt, up 0.49%, with trading volume at 36,000 lots and open interest at 199,000 lots, a decrease of 185 lots from the previous trading day, mainly indicating bears reducing positions.

[Geopolitical Disruptions Combined with Elevated Inventory Highlight LME Outperforming SHFE in Aluminum Market] Overall, the core pattern of LME outperforming SHFE in the aluminum market is difficult to reverse in the short term. LME strength will support room for SHFE aluminum to catch up after the holiday, but high domestic inventory and weak demand will cap overall gains. Going forward, the focus will be on the pace of aluminum ingot destocking in China and the strength of rigid demand release from downstream resumption of work and production resumptions.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Limited Macro and Fundamental Positives, Insufficient Momentum for Lead Price Increases] US Trump said a US-Iran deal was "very likely," threatening stronger bombing if talks failed. After the Labour Day holiday, the lead market resumed normal trading, with lead ingot arrivals increasing at warehouses in multiple regions...

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Continued Its Daytime Rise During the Night Session, Spot Market Trading Stalled]

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Macro and Fundamentals Resonate, LME Zinc Center Rises] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,365/mt. At the beginning of the session, LME zinc dipped slightly to $3,357/mt, then prices continued to rise, reaching a high of $3,442/mt. Late in the session, prices pulled back slightly from highs to consolidate, ultimately closing up at $3,409.5/mt, up $51/mt, a gain of 1.52%. Trading volume increased to 101,000 lots, and open interest increased by 4,648 lots to 236,000 lots.

SMM May 7 News: Metals market: Overnight, base metals in both domestic and overseas markets showed mixed performance. SHFE tin continued its strong momentum from the previous day's session, ultimately closing up 5.01%. SHFE nickel fell 2.68%. LME tin led the gains with a remarkable 9.01% increase, LME copper rose 2.22%, and LME zinc gained 1.52%. LME aluminum fell 1.02%, LME nickel dropped 2.22%, and the remaining metals posted % changes within 1%. The alumina front-month contract rose 1.13%, while the foundry aluminum front-month contract fell 1.03%. Overnight ferrous metals: stainless steel fell 1.15%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.26%, and rebar gained 0.68%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.92%, and coke dropped 0.64%. Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold rose 2.95%, and COMEX silver gained 5.77%. In China, SHFE gold rose 0.98%, and SHFE silver gained 2.8%. As of 6:45 AM on May 7, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [Ministry of Foreign Affairs: China and the US are maintaining communication regarding President Trump's visit to China] On May 6, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Lin Jian hosted a regular press conference. A reporter asked about US President Trump's recent remarks concerning China. In response, Lin Jian stated that China and the US are maintaining communication regarding President Trump's visit to China. (CCTV News) (Jin10 Data APP) People's Bank of China: The weighted average interest rate on newly issued commercial personal housing loans nationwide in Q1 2026 was 3.06% . (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.49 to 98.02. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said on Wednesday that the war with Iran increasingly resembles an inflationary shock to the economy. While the impact on employment and economic growth is not yet apparent, concerns about supply chain disruptions and sustained price increases are intensifying. "This is not yet a 'stagflationary' shock" — the kind that hits the job market while pushing up inflation, forcing the US Fed to decide which of its policy objectives faces greater risk — Goolsbee said after attending the Milken Institute conference in Los Angeles. "This is simply an inflationary shock. And the longer this persists, the more uneasy I become." (Jin10 Data APP) Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned against instinctively cutting interest rates in response to faster productivity growth, as such a phenomenon can sometimes push up inflation. In prepared remarks released ahead of a panel discussion at the Milken Institute Global Conference on Wednesday local time, Goolsbee said the US Fed's response to faster productivity growth "depends in large part on whether the productivity growth happens unexpectedly or is expected to happen in the future." He said in the first scenario, inflation could be suppressed, allowing for interest rate cuts. In the latter scenario, additional investment and spending driven by productivity growth could push up inflation, requiring higher interest rates. Additionally, he emphasized the need to be wary of consumption and investment driven by future growth expectations. "The more intense the hype, the greater the need for rate hikes to prevent overheating," he said. (Jin10 Data APP) St. Louis Fed President Musalem said there is significant uncertainty surrounding the US economic and monetary policy outlook, but he believes that relative to employment risks, inflation risks are currently rising. Musalem said on Wednesday: "Inflation is clearly above our 2% target. We face risks on both the employment and inflation fronts. Based on my assessment, risks are tilting more toward inflation rather than employment." Musalem said the US Fed's benchmark policy rate is currently at a neutral level that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy, or possibly slightly accommodative. He said: "There are very plausible scenarios that require us to hold the current policy rate unchanged for a period of time." However, he also noted that he sees scenarios that could require officials to cut interest rates further, or to raise rates. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June is 93.5%, with a 6.5% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. The probability of holding rates unchanged through July is 86.5%, with a 13.0% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut and a 0.5% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Today, China's April foreign exchange reserves (TBD), US April Challenger job cuts, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 2, US March construction spending MoM, US April New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, Eurozone March retail sales MoM, France March trade balance, and Switzerland April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate will be released. In addition, 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a panel discussion at a conference. Crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices in both markets fell together, with WTI down 5.93% and Brent down 7.2%. FXPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich said in a report that as the US is unwilling to further escalate tensions in the conflict with Iran, the oil market has now priced in a peace deal as the base case scenario. "Once shipping resumes quickly, tankers trapped in the Strait of Hormuz will release supply in a concentrated burst in the short term, pushing down Brent and WTI crude prices." However, he added that since global inventories have already been depleted and repairs to damaged infrastructure in Gulf states still require time, oil prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels before the end of this year. "The decline in Brent and WTI prices will likely be very rapid but will not last long." (Jin10 Data APP) According to market observer The Kobeissi Letter, approximately 70 minutes before Axios reported that the US and Iran were close to reaching consensus on a "14-point" agreement to end the war, crude oil short positions worth approximately $920 million were established. At 3:40 AM ET today (3:40 PM Beijing time), with no major news, the market established nearly 10,000 crude oil short contracts. In notional value, this trade was approximately $920 million — an unusually large transaction for the 3:40 AM time slot. 70 minutes later at 4:50 AM ET (4:40 PM Beijing time), Axios reported that the US was "close to" reaching a "memorandum of understanding" to end the Iran war. By 7:00 AM ET (7:00 PM Beijing time), oil prices had fallen more than 12%, and the aforementioned crude oil short positions had unrealized gains of approximately $125 million. (Jin10 Data APP) According to a foreign media survey, as the Iran conflict continued to hinder Persian Gulf exports and forced more oil fields to shut down, OPEC's crude oil production fell to a 36-year low last month. The survey showed that OPEC's April crude oil production decreased by 420,000 barrels per day to 20.55 million barrels per day, the lowest level since 1990, mainly dragged down by further declines in Kuwait and Iran production. The survey showed Kuwait had the largest production decline last month, with daily output falling by 470,000 barrels to 800,000 barrels per day, less than one-third of pre-war levels. The country's exports had fallen to just 22,000 barrels per day. Iran followed, with production declining by 180,000 barrels per day to 3.05 million barrels per day, doubling the cumulative production cuts since the war began. OPEC also suffered another blow last week. The UAE announced its withdrawal from the organization, following years of friction with the group's leader Saudi Arabia over production limits. The April survey still included UAE data, as the UAE's withdrawal did not officially take effect until May 1. (Bloomberg) (Jin10 Data APP) US EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory for the week ending May 1 was at its lowest since the week of December 6, 2024, and domestic crude oil production was at its lowest since the week of January 30, 2026. (Jin10 Data APP)

[Weakening US Dollar and Supply Disruptions Drive Notable Intraday Gains in SHFE Zinc]: The most-traded SHFE zinc 2606 contract opened at 23,850 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 23,815 yuan/mt in early trading, then fluctuated upward throughout the session, touching a high of 24,285 yuan/mt near the close, and ultimately settled up at 24,250 yuan/mt, gaining 605 yuan/mt, or 2.56%.