After the Chinese New Year holiday, the domestic aluminum market entered the traditional resumption cycle, but the problem of aluminum ingot inventory buildup became prominent. Warehouses in major consumption areas faced comprehensive capacity constraints, and congestion at railway stations was widespread. Overall inventory pressure is expected to persist until the end of March...

28th of Feburary: According to SMM statistics, in February 2026, overseas production of metallurgical-grade alumina decreased by 12.41% month-on-month and 3.66% year-on-year; the average operating rate of overseas alumina enterprises edged down by 0.01 percentage point month-on-month to 76.17%, a decrease of 2.67 percentage points year-on-year. Overall, overseas alumina production was relatively stable during the month. By region: Asia: On February 6, Lam Dong Province in Vietnam approved the expansion plans for two alumina projects under Vinacomin, with a total investment of VND 59.855 trillion (approximately USD 2.3 billion). One is to add a production line with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tons at the Nhan Co alumina plant in Dak Nong Province, which is expected to be commissioned in 2030 with an operating period of 30 years. The other is to expand the Tan Rai alumina plant in Lam Dong Province, planning to build a second production line with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tons. Construction is expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2030 and operation to begin in the fourth quarter. According to SMM research, Vietnam's local bauxite resources are relatively abundant, providing stable raw material support for the commissioning of these projects. It is expected that they will have significant cost advantages, potentially enhancing the export competitiveness of alumina in the long term. Europe: In order to reduce the negative environmental impact of road transportation, Alteo alumina plant has partnered with HES Fos, planning to relocate most of its logistics operations from the port of Marseille to the port of Fos-sur-Mer. Under the agreement, HES Fos will be responsible for unloading ships, storing hydrated alumina, and subsequently transporting it to Alteo's plant in Gardanne. In the future, HES Fos will renovate an existing clinker warehouse specifically for storing hydrated alumina to ensure the smooth operation of the supply chain. The construction of this dedicated facility has entered the execution phase and is expected to be put into operation in 2029, providing reliable support for the logistics and storage of alumina in the long term. Australia: On February 13, Australian company Alpha HPA announced the groundbreaking of the second phase of its planned world's largest single-site high-purity alumina refinery. The project will utilize the company's proprietary solvent extraction and refining technology to commercially produce high-purity alumina products with a purity of 99.99%, providing key raw materials for industries such as global lithium batteries, LED lights, and semiconductor manufacturing. Middle East: On February 28, the conflict between Iran and Israel escalated, with an attack on Tehran, the capital of Iran. Currently, no shutdowns of alumina plants in the region have been reported. According to SMM statistics, Iran has only one alumina plant, which is equipped with bauxite production capacity. If geopolitical conflicts further intensify, the plant's production could be affected, and the possibility of output cuts or shutdowns cannot be ruled out. Data show that Iran's annual alumina output is about 250,000 tons, and bauxite output is about 650,000 tons. Its alumina production cannot meet the domestic demand for electrolytic aluminum production, and it has long relied on imports, with India being the main source. Alumina imports from India account for 40% to 80% of Iran's total imports. Outlook for March 2026: Overseas production of metallurgical-grade alumina is expected to increase by 12.65% month-on-month and decrease slightly by 2.38% year-on-year; the operating rate is expected to be 77.45%, up 0.01 percentage point month-on-month and down 1.61 percentage points year-on-year. Continuous attention should be paid to the impact of changes in the international political situation on alumina production.

Following the Chinese New Year holiday, the domestic wire and cable industry has gradually resumed production in an orderly manner, with the overall pace of work resumption largely aligning with expectations. The specific details are as follows......

SMM, February 28 news： In February 2026, China's secondary lead market was squeezed by three factors—the holiday effect, high costs, and weak demand—leading to a significant pullback in production as expected, with industry operations characterized by "weak supply and demand and profit margins under pressure." Data showed that secondary lead production in February 2026 fell as expected by 140,000 mt, plunging 40.38% MoM and dropping 2.19% YoY; secondary refined lead output decreased 45.18% MoM and declined 11.36% YoY. In terms of the causes of production cuts, the primary factors were fewer calendar days in the month combined with the impact of the Chinese New Year holiday, which led to widespread shutdowns or production cuts at mainstream secondary lead smelters across the country. Worker departures for the holiday pushed operating rates to low levels, with particularly sharp declines in core production areas such as Jiangsu and Henan due to delayed worker returns and logistics constraints. Pressure on the cost side further exacerbated the scale of production cuts: before the holiday, scrap battery prices remained high due to recyclers' reluctance to sell, pushing up secondary lead smelting costs, while lead prices continued to trend weakly during the same period, causing widespread losses among secondary lead enterprises. Theoretical comprehensive profit/loss margins for large-scale producers were in negative territory, with small and medium-sized enterprises facing even more severe losses. Weakness on the demand side created a dual suppression: downstream battery producers entered the holiday early, causing lead ingot purchase willingness to hit rock bottom, while smelters' finished product inventories continued to accumulate, further dampening production enthusiasm among enterprises and ultimately leading to a sharp contraction in secondary lead output in February. Looking ahead to March, China's secondary lead market is expected to see a clear corrective rebound, with production forecast to increase by about 70,000 mt compared to February. The core driver of this trend is the comprehensive resumption of work and production across the industry chain after the holiday. With workers returning in concentration after the Lantern Festival, secondary lead smelters will enter a period of concentrated production resumptions, and some enterprises have indicated that they can resume operating at full capacity by mid-March. Gradual recovery in downstream demand will provide solid support for the production rebound: battery producers are resuming work successively, pre-holiday accumulated lead ingot inventories are entering a digestion cycle, and purchase willingness is expected to continue improving. Meanwhile, some secondary lead enterprises need to ramp up production to fulfill long-term contract delivery obligations, further driving up operating rates. On the raw material side, the scrap battery recycling market is gradually recovering after the holiday, and smelters' raw material inventories are expected to be replenished, easing supply constraints. Although enterprises still face certain profit pressures, with the combined effects of demand recovery, order support, and inventory digestion, production enthusiasm in the secondary lead industry is expected to improve significantly. Output in March is likely to achieve a substantive rebound, and industry operations will gradually return to normal.

Before and after the Chinese New Year, the domestic spot aluminum market exhibited significant regional differentiation, with the spot price spread between South China (Foshan) and East China (Wuxi) drawing particular attention. Before the holiday, the Guangdong-Shanghai price spread reached a high of 150 yuan/mt on February 10, while by February 27 after the holiday, this spread had narrowed significantly to 10 yuan/mt.....

According to reports, as of February 26, the in-factory inventory of primary lead delivery brands stood at 48,300 mt, an increase of 38,300 mt compared to the pre-holiday period (February 12). During the Chinese New Year, downstream lead enterprises were all on holiday, while some medium and large primary lead smelters maintained normal production. Coupled with logistics suspensions or delays during the holiday, smelters' in-factory inventory rose rapidly. Even though some suppliers transferred inventory to social warehouses after the holiday due to SHFE lead delivery factors, this did not alter the accumulation of inventory at smelters. Additionally, due to the current moderate performance of lead consumption, some primary lead enterprises have extended their maintenance plans. It is worth monitoring whether the recovery in lead consumption, following the basic resumption of production by downstream enterprises next week, will prompt a reduction in smelters' inventory.

In the first week after the Chinese New Year, the lead-acid battery market gradually resumed operations, with most producers starting production and logistics gradually recovering, allowing factories to resume battery shipments. On the dealer side, a few local dealers maintained normal business during the Chinese New Year holiday, while some dealers on holiday resumed operations after February 19, with the majority starting around February 24 (the eighth day of the first lunar month). The final batch will resume operations before the Lantern Festival on March 3. Currently, end-use consumption in the lead-acid battery market remains moderate, and dealers' enthusiasm for restocking after the holiday is low, with only just-in-time procurement taking place. Additionally, the selling price in the battery wholesale market has shown no significant change compared to pre-holiday levels.

[Zinc oxide plants resume production one after another, operations expected to exceed 40% next week] In the first week after the holiday, downstream industries such as terminal tires and ceramics are still in the stage of resuming work and production, with overall consumer demand remaining weak. Therefore, most zinc oxide enterprises in production have focused on gradually increasing output this week. The lower operating rate compared to pre-holiday levels is mainly due to some enterprises not yet restarting operations, while those that have resumed production have also failed to return to full normal production...

Capacity-wise, according to incomplete statistics, the domestic alkaline electrolyzer market remains at 43.77GW, and the PEM electrolyzer market stays at 2.7GW, with no new capacity added. The "water electrolysis hydrogen production system - oxygen purification unit" produced by Skyreach Hydrogen Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd. has been successfully delivered to a leading large-scale polysilicon producer in China. Updates on electrolyzer projects: Jinfeng Green Energy Chemical (Xing'an League) Co., Ltd.: The Yujinfeng Xing'an League green hydrogen to green methanol (Phase III) project has been filed, with the construction site located in Xing'an League Economic and Technological Development Zone, Ulanhot City, Xing'an League. Total investment: 2.3 billion yuan, including 460 million yuan of own funds and 1.84 billion yuan of bank loans applied for. The planned construction period is from May 2026 to May 2028. The project will mainly construct biomass gasification, methanol synthesis distillation, and other main production facilities along with supporting public auxiliary works, producing 725,000 tons of green methanol annually. Guohua Investment Guohua (Cangzhou) Integrated Energy Co., Ltd.: The Alashan Large Wind and Solar Base Electrolysis Water Hydrogen Production and Ammonia Synthesis System Integration and Engineering Demonstration Project Cangzhou Green Ammonia Phase II Electrolysis Water Hydrogen Production System Preliminary Design Service has issued a public tender. According to the announcement, the first phase of the Cangzhou green hydrogen and green ammonia electrolysis water hydrogen production and ammonia synthesis facility has already been constructed within the reserved area of the green ammonia plant. Shaanxi Hydrogen Luyuan Technology Co., Ltd.: The shortlisted candidates for the hydrogen power supply equipment and its auxiliary devices procurement (0021GBT rectifier power supply) of the Yulin Zero-Carbon Industrial Park Hydrogen (Hydrogen Production) Demonstration Project have been announced. According to the announcement, the first candidate is Beijing Leidong Zhi Chuang Technology Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 1.3668 million yuan; the second candidate is Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 1.4661 million yuan; the third candidate is Shenzhen Hopewind Technology Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 1.48 million yuan. North Engineering Design & Research Institute Co., Ltd. : A quotation request has been issued for the process equipment of the hydrogen production unit of the electrolysis water hydrogen production device (including electrolyzers, gas-liquid separation skids, purification skids, centrifugal pumps, canned motor pumps, alkali mixing tanks, demineralized water tanks, and auxiliary facilities). Jiangxi Xinlianxin Chemical Industry Co., Ltd.: The annual 100kt green methanol demonstration project has passed the filing. It is understood that the total investment of the project is 100.96 million yuan, and the construction scale and content do not involve additional land use, partially relying on Jiangxi Xinlianxin Chemical Co., Ltd. Upon project completion, the facility is expected to achieve an annual production of 100kt of green methanol. Construction is scheduled to commence in April 2026 and conclude in April 2027. Jinda Hongjing (Shache) Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: The company issued postponement announcements for the full-process tracking audit service and project supervision service of the Jinda Hongjing Shache County Integrated PV Hydrogen Production Project. The revised bid opening date for both is March 10, 2026. The project involves the construction of a new 250kt/year green methanol production facility, including water electrolysis for hydrogen production, biomass gasification units, and methanol synthesis units, along with storage systems and supporting utilities and auxiliary facilities. The annual output is set at 250kt of green methanol, with by-products including 30kt/year of steam and 179.2 million standard cubic meters/year of oxygen. Ningxia Wangwa Coal Industry Co., Ltd.: The winning bid result was announced for the hydrogen production equipment procurement of the Guyuan Pengyang 2×660MW Unit Project. The winning bidders are Suzhou Xipeiyou Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (bid price: 2.062 million yuan), Wuxi Weifu High-Technology Group Co., Ltd. (bid price: 2.2 million yuan), and Shanghai Hydrogen Sharp Technology Co., Ltd. (bid price: 2.3736 million yuan). The tender was divided into one section, specifically for a 10Nm³/h proton exchange membrane hydrogen production unit. Xinjiang Huadian Weihuliang New Energy Co., Ltd.: The company announced the transaction results for the UPS and EPS of the alkaline water electrolysis hydrogen production system for the Xinjiang Huadian Urumqi Point-to-Point Hydrogen Refueling Station, as well as the results for the hydrogen production system distribution cabinet. The suppliers are Harbin Jiuzhou Group Co., Ltd. and Tengzhou Taiyuan Power Equipment Manufacturing Co., Ltd., respectively. Junrui Green Hydrogen Energy (Chahar Right Rear Banner) Co., Ltd.: A competitive consultation announcement was released for the full-process management of the Chahar Right Rear Banner 14,400 t/year Hydrogen Production Project. According to the announcement, the procurement budget for the full-process management is 1.69% (bidders must not quote a rate higher than 1.69%, or the bid will be deemed invalid). Policy Review 1. The Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Development and Reform Commission published the "Ningxia 2026 First Batch of Project List Recommended to Private Capital." One key project in the hydrogen energy sector is the Integrated Hydrogen Storage, Transportation, and Utilization Zero-Carbon Energy Demonstration Base, located in the Lingzhou Chemical Industry Park in Lingwu City. The project aims to establish a demonstration model covering the entire green hydrogen production chain, including wind and solar power generation, hydrogen production, storage, and transportation. It will be equipped with corresponding facilities, pipelines, and transport fleets to provide logistics services to surrounding chemical enterprises and offer a feasible solution for replacing gray hydrogen with green hydrogen in the Ningdong coal chemical industry. Additionally, the project plans to construct hydrogen refueling stations to support bus operations and distributed fuel cell power generation projects. The total investment in the project amounts to 2.8 billion yuan. 2. The Jilin Provincial Energy Bureau released the "Implementation Plan for the Development and Construction of Green Electricity Direct Connection Projects in Jilin Province (Trial)" (Draft for Comments). The document indicates that new load projects can carry out green electricity direct connections, with priority support for hydrogen-based green energy (green hydrogen, green hydrogen to green ammonia, green hydrogen to green methanol, green hydrogen to sustainable aviation fuel, etc.), steel metallurgy, computing (data) centers, automotive manufacturing, and other industries. Electricity consumption projects that have not been registered with grid enterprises (including expansion parts of existing loads), electricity consumption projects that have been registered but whose supporting grid projects have not yet started construction, and existing projects agreed upon through consultation with grid enterprises are all considered new loads. In principle, new loads (including expansion parts of existing loads) and existing loads should not have direct electrical connections. 3. The European Commission approved a 4 billion euro special fund for electrolyzers, providing a 30% subsidy on equipment costs for projects with an annual capacity of ≥500 MW, and setting a 2030 target for electrolyzer efficiency in green hydrogen projects at ≥60% (LHV basis). Corporate Developments Plug Power : Faces a securities class action lawsuit in the US District Court for the Northern District of New York, accused of making misleading disclosures to investors regarding the progress of a US Department of Energy (DOE) loan guarantee of $1.66 billion (approximately 12 billion yuan), exaggerating the likelihood of obtaining the loan and the project construction capabilities. In November 2025, Plug announced the suspension of the loan-related project, jeopardizing the loan and the plan for six hydrogen plants, leading to consecutive declines in its stock price. Transition Industries : Signed a long-term natural gas supply agreement with Mexico's CFEnergía, securing a daily supply of 160 million cubic feet of US gas for the Pacifico Mexinol ultra-low carbon methanol project in Mexico. This contract marks the final key commercial milestone for the project, which has a total investment of $3.3 billion and is expected to commence operation by the end of 2029 to early 2030, producing 2.15 million mt of ultra-low carbon methanol annually, making it the largest facility of its kind globally. Power2X : Dutch hydrogen-based synthetic fuel developer Power2X acquired green hydrogen enterprise HyCC, with the transaction valuation undisclosed. The acquisition adds five green hydrogen projects in the Netherlands and Germany, with a total developable scale of 1 GW, aiding the company in advancing its 250,000 mt per year green hydrogen-based SAF project in Rotterdam, marking its transition from project development to execution. Robert Bosch GmbH: Conducted workforce optimization in China, with the first round involving nearly 200 employees at the Wuxi plant's internal combustion engine and hydrogen fuel cell projects. This is an economic layoff, with the company offering N+4 compensation, exceeding the statutory standard. China Huadian Corporation Ltd. : Party Secretary and Chairman Jiang Yi held talks in Baotou with Chen Zhichang, Member of the Standing Committee of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Regional Party Committee and Secretary of the Baotou Municipal Party Committee, and Meng Qingwei, Deputy Secretary of the Baotou Municipal Party Committee and Mayor, where both sides exchanged views on further deepening central-local cooperation. Hebei Province Baoding High-Tech Environment Technology Co., Ltd.: announced the winning bid result for the Baoding High-Tech Environment Technology Co., Ltd. Hydrogen-Powered Sanitation Vehicle Procurement Project. The winning bidder was Changsha Zoomlion Environment Industry Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 37.685 million yuan. Inner Mongolia Ebert Coal Technology Co., Ltd.: The hydrogen refueling, hydrogen swapping, charging and swapping integrated station at Plot 02-02C1 in the Airport Logistics Park was approved for construction by the Yijinhuoluo Banner Energy Bureau. The bid inviter is Inner Mongolia Ebert Coal Technology Co., Ltd., and the construction funds are self-raised. It is understood that this project is an integrated station for hydrogen refueling, hydrogen swapping, and charging. The hydrogen refueling station is classified as a Level III station with a hydrogen refueling capacity of 500 kg/d. The main facilities of the hydrogen refueling station include 1 unloading column, 2 units of 45 MPa hydrogen compressors, 1 unit of 90 MPa hydrogen compressor, 1 set of 45 MPa hydrogen storage cylinder bundle, 1 set of 90 MPa hydrogen storage cylinder bundle, 1 unit of HB5/H70 hydrogen refueling integrated machine, 3 units of compressor chiller units, 1 unit of hydrogen refueling machine chiller unit, 1 set of nitrogen cylinder bundle, 1 unit of nitrogen cabinet, 2 units of sequential control cabinets, 1 unit of heat exchanger, etc. The facilities for the hydrogen swapping and battery swapping station include 1 set of integrated hydrogen swapping and battery swapping skid, etc. Patent Applications 1. Shanghai Institute of Ceramics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China) disclosed patent CN2025110028, developing a ceramic-based anion exchange membrane with a laboratory test lifespan reaching 80,000 hours. 2. Johnson Matthey (UK) filed patent WO2025109876, disclosing a Fe-Ni-Mo ternary non-precious metal catalyst formulation with activity close to platinum-based materials. Technology Footprints/Technical Specifications 1. The team of Liu Qingju from Yunnan University constructed a superwetting Pt/NF@CF graded heterojunction electrocatalyst for low-energy consumption and high-efficiency hydrogen production. 2. Teams from Hunan Normal University and Central South University (AM) revealed the effects of compressive strain and oxygen vacancies on iridium oxide in proton exchange membrane water electrolyzers. 3. Relevant research teams from the School of Electrical Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, and the State Key Laboratory of Electrical Insulation and Electrical Materials successfully developed a Ru/Ti3C2Ox@NF bifunctional seawater electrolysis electrocatalyst. 4. The group standard "Technical Specification for Wind-Solar-Storage Green Electricity Coupled Electrolysis Hydrogen Production" (Number T/CIEP 0272—2025) was released and implemented by the China Industrial Environmental Protection Promotion Association. Zhongneng Dayou Energy Technology Co., Ltd. successfully developed a 100 kW-level PEM electrolyzer hydrogen production multi-field coupling test equipment. 5. GKN Powder Metallurgy announced the development of a new generation of high-performance, high-porosity, high-purity porous transport layer (HP-PTL) for proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis.

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