The Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain weakly structured. A slightly widened nearby contango is incentivizing suppliers to move spot material into warehouse warrants, limiting liquidity tightness. Concurrently, smelters' delivery stockpiling and suppliers' strong price-holding sentiment are restricting available spot supply, supporting the prevailing discount. With the holiday approaching, downstream procurement has largely slowed, diminishing demand-side support for prices. Amid high prices, tight supply, firm holder sentiment, and spread pressure, spot discounts are forecast to narrow slightly further tomorrow.

[SMM Analysis] The 2025 Chinese New Year holiday lasted from January 28 to February 4, during which the SHFE market was closed. Before the holiday, the SHFE copper 2503 contract fluctuated downward, closing at 75,540 yuan/mt on January 27. In the overseas market, LME copper prices during the week before the Chinese New Year (January 21-27) were suppressed by the continuous rise of the US dollar index, briefly dipping to $8,914/mt, significantly pulling back from the pre-holiday high of $9,355/mt. It eventually closed at $9,153/mt, down 0.83% from the January 27 opening price of $9,230/mt.