This week, ferrous metals diverged, with coking coal and coke extending their strength, iron ore making some concessions, and finished steel moving sideways. Early in the week, rumors about coal mine safety inspections continued to swirl, and expectations of supply tightness intensified, driving coking coal to its daily limit up. Against weak supply-demand fundamentals, iron ore took a path of conceding to coking coal and coke, while finished steel edged higher in a narrow range; later in the week, data on the five major steel products were released, with HRC inventory destocking continuing, the off-season effect on construction steel demand emerging, inventory destocking narrowing, and overall inventory pressure for finished steel also beginning to slowly accumulate......

Philippines Market: Seasonal Downturn and Supply Constraints During the Chinese New Year holiday, nickel ore trading activity in the Philippines remained sluggish, with trading volume being scarce. This stagnation was primarily due to Chinese buyers being away during the holiday. Supply side, shipments are still concentrated in the northern regions, while shipments from Surigao and other southern areas remain at low levels. Although port inventory in China dropped slightly, smelter demand for Philippine ore remained weak during the holiday. This weak demand is attributed to the persistently high prices of Philippine nickel ore and the fact that many smelters built up sufficient inventory by the end of last year. Furthermore, the ongoing rainy season, which started in December, continues to impose supply constraints, providing steady upward pressure on prices. These high prices are further supported by increased market uncertainty regarding domestic supply from Indonesia in the coming months. Indonesia Market: Policy Uncertainty and RKAB Quota Constraints In the Indonesian market, participants remain in a "wait-and-see" mode, awaiting the full implementation of RKAB (mining quota) approvals. While several major miners have received approvals, many mines face quotas that are significantly reduced YoY. This trend supports the possibility that the government will enforce a stricter annual RKAB system in the short term, capping the national annual quota at approximately 260 million to 270 million wmt. As a result, many smelters now face urgent ore shortages, with only a few enterprises having sufficient inventory to sustain long-term operations. Although the domestic trade benchmark price (HPM) dropped slightly by 0.58% to $17,670/mt Ni in the second half of February due to the holiday impact, considering that the current rainy season in Indonesia persists in some regions, the approaching Ramadan will further limit production efficiency, and government approval uncertainties continue to block supply increases, the market generally expects that RKAB approval obstacles will be difficult to resolve in the short term. Intertwined with these multiple bullish factors, domestic Indonesian nickel ore prices and premiums are likely to show an upward trend.

Anglo American has stated that its Collahuasi copper mine in Chile is facing a decline in ore grade, which will limit production next year, with normal output levels expected to resume only by 2027. In an interview, Anglo American COO Ruben Fernandes mentioned that the Collahuasi mine's annual production is expected to recover to around 600,000 tons by 2027. This is primarily due to the mine transitioning to higher-grade ore areas in the open pit and the full operational commencement of a new desalination plant next year. The copper mine is jointly owned, with Anglo American and Glencore each holding a 44% stake, while the remaining 12% is held by Mitsui & Co.