SMM, August 18: Today, offers from smelters and the recycling side in the waste lead-acid battery market held steady. A few smelters raised their purchase offers slightly, but overall price adjustments were limited and the market remained basically stable. Smelter raw material arrivals showed no significant change for the time being but displayed notable regional divergence, with relatively better arrivals in regions with higher purchase prices. Limited by the current thin supply of scrap batteries in circulation, a recycler in North China reported a notable contraction in average daily purchases, from 20-30 mt/day previously to about 7-10 mt/day currently, and the arrival pace was unstable. After lead prices rebounded, the pullback was relatively limited. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment improved slightly from earlier, while rigid demand consumption remained stable but the overall improvement was still limited. Scrap battery prices are expected to move sideways in the short term. Attention will focus on smelters' price adjustment pace and the impact of supply releases from retail outlets on circulation volume.

SMM News on August 18: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,885.5/mt. After the open, it drifted higher, hitting an early-session high of $1,891.0/mt. It then stayed high and moved sideways within a narrow range, dipping to a low of $1,885.0/mt, and finally closed at $1,885/mt, up $5.5/mt from the previous trading day, a gain of 0.29%. The trading range was $1,885.0-1,891.0/mt, with a fluctuation of $6.0/mt. Overnight, the SHFE lead 2610 contract opened today at 15,880 yuan/mt. After the open, it quickly fell to 15,845 yuan/mt and then rebounded to 15,938 yuan/mt. After moving sideways within a narrow range, it moved sideways in late trading within 15,865 yuan/mt-15,880 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 15,875 yuan/mt, down 75 yuan/mt from the previous trading day’s closing price, a decline of 0.47%. Demand side, as downstream enterprises ended their high-temperature holidays, some enterprises resumed normal production, and routine procurement demand rebounded, easing to some extent the pressure from inventory buildup of lead ingots after delivery. Supply side saw both increases and decreases: maintenance at primary lead enterprises will bring some reduction in supply, and with smelters holding prices firm while selling, the widening of spot lead discounts was limited; as losses at secondary lead enterprises were somewhat repaired, some enterprises resumed production, increasing market circulating supply, and secondary refined lead maintained trading at relatively larger discounts. Overall, lead prices maintained a fluctuating trend.

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,885.5/mt. After the open, it drifted higher, hitting an early-session high of $1,891.0/mt. It then stayed high and moved sideways in a narrow range, with a low of $1,885.0/mt, and finally closed at $1,885/mt, up $5.5/mt from the previous trading day, a gain of 0.29%. The trading range was $1,885.0–$1,891.0/mt, with a spread of $6.0/mt. Overnight, the SHFE lead 2610 contract opened at 15,880 yuan/mt. After the open, it quickly fell to 15,845 yuan/mt and then rebounded to 15,938 yuan/mt. After moving sideways in a narrow range, it moved sideways in a narrow range at 15,865–15,880 yuan/mt in late trading, and finally closed at 15,875 yuan/mt, down 75 yuan/mt from the previous trading day’s closing price, a decline of 0.47%. Macro: The 60-day deadline for the US-Iran peace agreement officially expired, and Iran ruled out the possibility of an extension; US President Trump said the US is not currently seeking to extend the memorandum of understanding with Iran, and geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East intensified. As recent US economic data were weak, the market’s bets on further rate hikes by the US Fed continued to cool. China, the UK, and Japan all reduced their holdings of US Treasuries in June; the US 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.31%, a 19-year high. Li Qiang chaired the 12th plenary meeting of the State Council, stressing the need to thoroughly implement the CPC Central Committee’s decisions and deployments and strive to accomplish the annual targets and tasks for economic and social development. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) deployed efforts to accelerate the rollout of new-type policy-based financial instruments in 2026 and increase support for private investment projects. China’s National Bureau of Statistics: In July, the value-added industrial output of enterprises above designated size grew by 4.5% YoY in real terms; MoM, the sales prices of newly built commercial residential housing in first-tier cities shifted from a 0.1% increase in the previous month to flat. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead continued to consolidate on a strong note, and today was the delivery day for the SHFE lead 2608 contract, with relatively few quotations for warrant cargoes. In addition, EXW cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters differed between the northern and southern markets; in mainstream producing areas, cargoes were quoted at premiums of 0–50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. For secondary lead, smelters sold in line with the market, and discounts in quotations changed relatively little WoW; secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 100–0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. After returning from the weekend, downstream enterprises gradually made purchases as needed, inquiries increased, and procurement was mainly EXW cargoes self-picked up from production site; spot market trading activity improved somewhat. Inventory: On August 17, LME lead inventory fell by 1,700 mt, or 0.41%, to 410,975 mt; according to SMM, as of August 17, total social inventory of lead ingots across five locations reached 78,600 mt, up 5,800 mt from August 10 and up 3,400 mt from August 13. Lead Price Forecast for Today: Demand side, as downstream enterprises ended their high-temperature holidays, some enterprises resumed normal production, and routine procurement demand rebounded, easing post-delivery inventory buildup pressure for lead ingots to some extent. Supply side saw both increases and decreases: maintenance at primary lead enterprises was set to reduce supply to a certain extent; coupled with smelters holding prices firm while selling, the widening of spot lead discounts was limited. As losses at secondary lead enterprises improved somewhat, some enterprises resumed production, increasing market circulating supply, and secondary refined lead maintained trading at relatively larger discounts. Overall, lead prices were expected to maintain a fluctuating trend.

SMM News, August 17: During the session, the SHFE lead 2608 contract for the current month closed at 15,800 yuan/mt, with a settlement price of 15,825 yuan/mt, open interest of 3,095 lots, delivery volume of 15,475 mt, and warrant inventory of 65,864 mt. The SHFE lead 2608 contract completed delivery smoothly. The SHFE lead 2609 contract posted a trading volume of 41,201 lots and open interest of 35,793 lots; the SHFE lead 2610 contract posted a trading volume of 49,825 lots and open interest of 75,440 lots. The most-traded SHFE lead contract officially rolled over to the 2610 contract. During the session, the SHFE lead 2609 contract drifted higher, opening at 15,825 yuan/mt and quickly surging to 15,940 yuan/mt after the open, before pulling back to 15,865 yuan/mt. It then moved sideways in the 15,875-15,910 yuan/mt range, and rebounded again in late afternoon trading to 15,920 yuan/mt, staying high and moving sideways in a narrow range. It finally closed at 15,920 yuan/mt, up 95 yuan/mt from the previous trading day’s closing price, a gain of 0.60%, with the daily K-line posting a small bullish candlestick. Trading volume was 41,201 lots, while open interest fell by 3,343 lots to 35,793 lots. With lead prices strengthening and delivery of the 2608 contract, quotations for warrant cargo were relatively limited. In some regions, smelter inventories declined and maintenance was approaching, tightening circulating supply and strengthening the willingness to hold prices firm, while some smelters in south China actively sold, and the divergence between shipments in the south and north widened somewhat. Secondary lead smelters shipped in line with the market, with quotations little changed WoW. Downstream players returned after the weekend and purchased as needed; enquiry and transaction activity improved, and some enterprises reported better battery orders, with support from rigid demand strengthening somewhat. In the short term, supply tightens in some regions and improved downstream rigid demand will support prices, but high lead prices still suppress purchase willingness. Supply divergence caused by active shipments from south China smelters may limit upside room. SHFE lead is expected to consolidate at highs in the short term; attention should be paid to downstream actual purchase strength and smelter inventory changes.

SMM News on August 17: Dealers in Jiangxi reported that replacement demand in the automotive lead-acid battery market was average, and retailers’ purchases were still mainly driven by rigid demand. As lead prices rose, risk-averse sentiment in the battery wholesale market eased somewhat. The current wholesale price for the mainstream model 6-QW-45Ah was 160-180 yuan per unit. Manufacturers in Zhejiang reported that overall demand in the automotive lead-acid battery market was relatively weak, and dealers were not very active in purchasing. Coupled with rising raw material prices such as lead and tin, battery production costs increased, and sales pressure intensified somewhat. The current factory operating rate remained at 70-80%. Manufacturers in Hebei reported that replacement demand for automotive lead-acid batteries was poor, and finished-product orders showed no obvious improvement for the time being. To avoid a further build-up in inventory, the current factory operating rate was below 70%, and raw material lead was mainly procured via long-term contract.

SMM News on August 17: Today, suggested price adjustments in the secondary refined lead market diverged, with online prices raised by 0-100 yuan/mt. Sentiment games between upstream and downstream were evident: although downstream purchase willingness improved, buyers resisted a rise in lead prices; upstream suppliers were bullish and expected prices to increase. Most actual market transactions were concluded at discounts of 100-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, while mainstream quotations were at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt. Today, the SMM secondary refined lead average price was 15,650 yuan/mt, a discount of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. Suppliers’ willingness to sell was 1.54, and today’s secondary refined lead purchasing sentiment was 2.09 (historical data can be queried by logging into the database).

Futures: Last Friday, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,890.5/mt, drifted lower during the Asian session, and after dipping to $1,881.0/mt, consolidated in a narrow range at low levels. It then gradually rebounded during the European session, and surged late in the session to a high of $1,896.5/mt, finally closing at $1,895.5/mt, up 0.26%. Open interest increased by 3,720 lots to 183,969 lots on the day. On Friday night, the SHFE lead 2609 contract opened at 15,840 yuan/mt in the night session. After briefly touching a high of 15,855 yuan/mt early on, it quickly fell, bottoming at 15,740 yuan/mt, then consolidated and rebounded. In the latter half, it traded in the 15,820-15,840 yuan/mt range, and finally closed at 15,805 yuan/mt, down 0.22%. Night-session open interest decreased by 1,185 lots to 37,951 lots. It should be noted that the 2608 contract was in the delivery period. Prices and open interest of near-month contracts were susceptible to disruptions from delivery and contract rollover, and the subsequent trend of the 2609 contract still required close tracking of the pace of fund position shifting. Overall, after SHFE lead retreated from highs, it had yet to show clear rebound momentum. On the macro front: The situation in the Middle East continued to escalate. Iran said US forces had been expelled and were not allowed to enter the strait; Syrian sources said Yemen’s Houthi forces launched an attack on a US drone; and the Israel Defense Forces launched strikes on southern Lebanon over the weekend. Rising geopolitical tensions could lift crude oil and inflation expectations, and affect risk appetite for nonferrous metals via the US dollar and expectations for US Fed policy. US President Trump demanded a significant reduction in the scale of US–South Korea joint military exercises. Today, focus was on the impact of Middle East developments and crude oil price changes on macro sentiment. PBOC: In the first seven months, cumulative growth in aggregate financing to the real economy totaled 22.25 trillion yuan, and RMB loans increased by 10.38 trillion yuan. National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): Starting from 24:00 on August 14, China’s retail price caps for gasoline and diesel were lowered by 230 yuan/mt and 220 yuan/mt, respectively. Zhongwei Semiconductor: Net profit in 2026 H1 was 172 million yuan, up 98.48% YoY. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead reversed and pulled back, and suppliers’ willingness to sell declined somewhat, while quotations for warrant cargoes also decreased. In addition, EXW cargoes from primary lead smelters were quoted in line with the market, with mainstream producing areas quoted at parity against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works, and discounted cargoes decreased somewhat. For secondary lead, smelters’ willingness to quote declined, market circulating cargoes decreased, and some smelters held back from selling at low prices; secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 100-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased as needed. Approaching the weekend, some rigid-demand restocking increased somewhat, but overall wait-and-see sentiment remained strong, and spot market transactions saw limited improvement. Inventory: On August 14, LME lead inventory fell by 1,700 mt, or 0.41%, to 412,675 mt; according to SMM, as of August 13, SMM five-location social inventory of lead ingots stood at 75,200 mt, up 2,400 mt from August 10. Today’s Lead Price Forecast: This week marks the delivery period for the SHFE lead 2608 contract. Ahead of delivery, lead ingots saw an on-schedule inventory buildup, dragging lead prices lower. However, it is worth noting that maintenance among primary lead enterprises increased in mid-to-late August, mainly among delivery brand enterprises, which may support a rebound in lead prices. Meanwhile, consumption in the lead-acid battery market was mediocre, while just-in-time procurement demand from downstream enterprises was moderate, which can be regarded as a neutral factor. In summary, SMM expects lead prices to rebound after probing lows.

SMM, August 14: Under the dual pressures of tight scrap battery raw material supply and smelting losses, domestic secondary crude lead smelters showed weak willingness to produce and sell. This Friday, mainstream tax-inclusive delivered secondary crude lead transactions were concentrated at 14,400-14,450 yuan/mt. New transactions for imported crude lead were sluggish, with scarce public quotes in the market, and only a small number of long-term contracts were executed at parity with the SMM #1 lead average price on an EXW port basis. Looking ahead to next week, domestic secondary crude lead supply is unlikely to see significant release, and downstream demand is expected to remain mediocre. Against the backdrop of lead prices in the doldrums, suppliers holding imported crude lead lacked sufficient profit margins, mostly chose to hold back from selling and await sales; although their quotes remained firm, the impact on the spot market was limited.

It is understood that as of August 13, in-factory inventory of major primary lead delivery brands stood at 20,900 mt, down 1,300 mt WoW. As some primary lead smelters underwent maintenance, regional supply of lead ingot tightened somewhat, and with some cargo moving into the market, smelters' in-factory inventory pressure eased. However, lead prices trended upward overall this week; downstream enterprises were wary of high prices and stayed on the sidelines, making cautious purchases. Spot market transactions were lackluster, and inventory destocking at primary lead smelters was limited. In addition, as lead prices rebounded, losses at secondary lead enterprises gradually narrowed, and some enterprises showed signs of resuming production, which diverted some downstream just-in-time procurement and also somewhat constrained inventory destocking at primary lead smelters.

This week, consumption in the lead-acid battery market remained weak, and the battery wholesale market showed divergent trends. Sales promotions continued in some regions, while in others they ended due to higher lead prices, and battery selling prices rebounded somewhat. Among them, the wholesale price of the main 48V20Ah e-bike battery model was quoted at 370-400 yuan/set. Consumption in the automotive battery market was also weak; producers generally produced based on sales, and some enterprises gradually resumed production after high-temperature shutdowns ended. Lead prices rose this week, with SHFE lead briefly touching the 16,000 yuan/mt mark; downstream enterprises showed strong wait-and-see sentiment, procurement was mainly based on rigid demand, and spot lead trading was thin. Toward the weekend, lead prices pulled back somewhat; some downstream enterprises restocked on dips for rigid demand, and market trading improved slightly.