[SMM Flash News] According to customs data, China’s lead-acid battery exports totaled 14.5905 million units in February 2026, down 25.09 percentage points MoM and up 14.02 percentage points YoY; cumulative lead-acid battery exports reached 34.0679 million units in January-February 2026, down 2.25 percentage points YoY.

Next week, key macroeconomic data releases include China’s February CPI y/y, the US February non-seasonally adjusted CPI y/y, the US January core PCE price index y/y, and the preliminary US March one-year inflation expectations; meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist, with unchanged impacts on maritime shipping and energy supply, while a surge in oil prices has hit interest rate cut expectations, and US Treasury traders have increasingly expected that the US Fed will not cut interest rates this year. In addition, on March 6, SHFE officially announced the passage of the revision plan for lead futures contracts, with secondary lead substitutes at a discount of 150 yuan/mt to deliverable-grade material. LME lead, overseas geopolitical issues have mixed bullish and bearish impacts on the lead market: on the one hand, hindered transportation and rising energy prices such as natural gas have pushed up smelting cost, and lead-acid battery exports have also been constrained by transportation restrictions; on the other hand, there is the impact of damage to the economic environment. In addition, overseas lead inventory has remained elevated after surging by more than 50,000 mt during the Chinese New Year period, leaving lead prices under pressure. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,930-1,990/mt next week. SHFE lead, in March, both domestic lead ingot supply and demand increased, and with imported lead supplementing supply, the destocking speed of lead ingots has been slow, leaving insufficient momentum for lead prices to rise. The secondary lead segment is currently in a loss-making state, and some smelters have slowed the pace of resuming production, providing support for lead prices. In addition, next week is the week before delivery for the SHFE lead 2603 contract, and suppliers will transfer inventory and ship to delivery warehouse; expectations of a cumulative increase in visible inventory may weigh on lead prices. Overall, the most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,600-17,000 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,500-16,700 yuan/mt. Demand side, the operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises rose, and their lead ingot purchases will rise accordingly, with more expectations of purchasing as needed. Supply side, primary lead smelters’ production was steady to slightly higher, and market circulating supply was ample; however, considering the factor of shipping to delivery warehouse, this may ease suppliers’ pressure to make shipments, keeping spot discounts stable, while secondary refined lead smelters have resumed work at a slightly slower pace and, amid losses, secondary refined lead smelters will hold prices firm in shipments, with limited widening of discounts.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Bullish and Bearish Factors Coexisted in Domestic and Overseas Markets; Lead Prices Were Expected to Remain Consolidated] US Treasury Secretary Bessent: A 15% global tariff might be implemented this week, pledged to safeguard the Persian Gulf, and hinted that more measures were forthcoming. Recently, lead-acid battery enterprises in the domestic market basically resumed production, and the overall operating rate in March rebounded sharply from February…

[SMM Analysis] Middle East Anti-Dumping Duties to Take Effect in January Next Year: What Impact Will They Have on Lead-Acid Battery Exports? SMM December 31: In late November 2025, according to the official website of the Gulf Cooperation Council (hereinafter referred to as "GCC") Technical Secretariat for Anti Injurious Practices in International Trade and Official Gazette Issue No. 53, the GCC Ministerial Committee composed of industry ministers formally approved the Standing Committee's recommendation to impose definitive anti-dumping duties on electric accumulators used for starting piston engines (HS code 85071000) originating in or exported from China and Malaysia.

[SMM News] According to customs data, China's lead-acid battery exports in July 2025 were 21.2866 million units, up 13.56% MoM and down 3.79% YoY; the cumulative exports from January-July 2025 were 134 million units, down 6.17% YoY.

[SMM Analysis: Lead-Acid Battery Export Rush Amid Tariff Hikes? Reduced Volume to the US?] Since the beginning of this year, the US has escalated tariff hikes on Chinese goods, and as the US-China trade tariff war intensifies, the automotive industry has become one of the key sectors impacted.

【SMM Analysis: Lead-Acid Battery Rush Export Under Tariff Hike? Reduction in US?】 Since the beginning of this year, the US has continuously escalated its tariff hikes on China. As the Sino-US trade tariff war intensifies, the automotive industry has become one of the key sectors impacted. As one of the main components of automobiles, lead-acid batteries have also been affected...

【SMM Analysis: Behind the Surge in Lead Prices in March 2025: Multi-dimensional Impacts of Supply-Demand Tug-of-War, Policy Benefits, and Environmental Protection-Driven Production Restrictions, and Outlook for April】SMM, March 26: Driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and a favorable macroeconomic environment, the center of lead prices in March 2025 significantly rose compared to February. In early March, the news of the US imposing additional tariffs continued to ferment, increasing market concerns and suppressing the performance of non-ferrous metal futures. After the conclusion of China's Two Sessions, a series of policies to boost consumption were proposed, creating a favorable macro front. However, the imbalance between lead ingot supply increments and raw material supply persisted, leading to a stalemate in the SHFE lead futures market, with the price center hovering around 17,250 yuan/mt. In the spot market, end-use consumption in the lead-acid battery sector remained largely unchanged, with major enterprises maintaining stable production and a weekly comprehensive operating rate of 70-80%. As the traditional off-season approaches, dealers have adopted a cautious approach to procurement, particularly e-bike battery dealers, with most actively maintaining lower inventory levels. Some producers reported a slowdown in new orders, and if battery inventories rise again, production cuts or holidays are being considered for late March.

[SMM Analysis: SHFE/LME Lead Price Ratio Diverges in 2024-2025, Lead-Acid Battery Export Pattern Reverses] SMM reported on March 21: According to customs data, lead-acid battery imports in February 2025 were 510,800 units, up 29.5% MoM and 57.06% YoY; cumulative imports for January-February 2025 were 905,300 units, up 9.45% YoY. Lead-acid battery exports in February 2025 were 12.7963 million units, down 41.98% MoM and 17.38% YoY; cumulative exports for January-February 2025 were 34.8527 million units, down 90.92% YoY.

SMM Analysis: SHFE/LME Lead Price Ratio Divergence, Lead-Acid Battery Export Pattern Reversal, 2024-2025 SMM reported on March 21: According to customs data, lead-acid battery imports in February 2025 were 510,800 units, up 29.5% MoM and 57.06% YoY; the cumulative imports of lead-acid batteries from January to February 2025...