Futures: The LME market was closed from April 3 to April 6 for the Good Friday and Easter holidays; due to the Qingming Festival holiday, SHFE lead did not conduct night session trading on the evening of Friday, April 3; normal trading resumed from Tuesday, April 7. On the Macro Front: 1. Trump said Iran's bridge power plants could be destroyed within four hours. 2. Trump on strait transit fees: the US might as well collect them. 3. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson: the US rescue operation for pilots may have been aimed at stealing enriched uranium. 4. Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rose to the highest level since early March. 5. China made a major breakthrough in sodium-ion battery technology. 6. Media: Foxconn was trial-producing Apple's foldable-screen phones. Spot Fundamentals: Last Friday, SHFE lead held up well. Suppliers shipped in line with the market, and with the holiday approaching, some suppliers actively made shipments. Premiums for primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site were lowered, with quotations in major producing areas mostly around parity against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works, while a small number of regions quoted premiums of 50 yuan/mt. For secondary lead, smelters quoted in line with the market, with secondary refined lead quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. However, imported lead continued to flow into China, giving downstream enterprises more choices. Apart from slight stockpiling due to the holiday, other enterprises only purchased as needed. Inventory: As of April 2, LME lead inventory fell by 50 mt to 281,650 mt; SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions continued to pull back. Lead Price Forecast for Today: Supply side, although social inventory of lead ingot in five regions in China continued to decline, maintenance and production resumptions at primary lead smelters proceeded in parallel in April. In addition, secondary lead capacity in northern China increased, finished product inventories at plants increased slightly, and imported lead continued to pour in, leaving overall spot supply ample. Demand side, lead-acid batteries entered the traditional off-season, downstream purchase willingness remained cautious, and spot transactions were weak. With phased consumption absent and the risk of post-holiday social inventory buildup elevated, resistance in SHFE lead became more evident. Lead prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, with limited upside room.

It was learned that the SMM weekly composite operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises in five provinces was 73.45% from March 27 to April 2, 2026, down 0.47 percentage points WoW from the previous week. In April, the lead-acid battery market entered the traditional consumption off-season. Some enterprises reported softer end-use consumption and a decline in finished product orders, and planned to scale back their April production plans. The weekly operating rate edged down this week. Recently, the Chinese market coincided with the Qingming Festival holiday, and lead-acid battery enterprises planned holidays ranging from 0 to 3 days. Among them, automotive battery enterprises mostly took 1 day off, while e-bike lead-acid battery enterprises mostly took 2-3 days off. The holiday impact will be reflected in next week's weekly operating rate of lead-acid batteries.

SMM News, April 3: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,760 yuan/mt intraday. From early trading to mid-session, prices moved sideways within the 16,730-16,780 yuan/mt range. Late in the session, prices fluctuated higher and touched a high of 16,810 yuan/mt, before closing at 16,785 yuan/mt, posting a small bullish candlestick, up 90 yuan/mt, or 0.54. Boosted by market sentiment, lead prices overall fluctuated upward today. Supply side, maintenance and production resumptions at primary lead enterprises proceeded in parallel, while finished product inventories at secondary lead smelters increased slightly WoW this week, and imported lead continued to flow into the Chinese market, leaving overall supply relatively ample. Demand side, with the traditional off-season for lead-acid batteries approaching and the Qingming Festival holiday drawing near, downstream purchase willingness was cautious, and spot market transactions were weak. Overall, resistance to lead prices was evident in the short term. Data source disclaimer: Except for publicly available information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Bullish and Bearish Factors Coexist, Lead Prices Are Expected to Continue Fluctuating Rangebound] Iran said the Strait of Hormuz had been closed and that three container ships had been turned back. Recently, lead ingot inventory in China has been destocked, including inventory at smelters and in social warehouses, and lead prices have shown signs of stabilizing after the decline...

It was learned that the weekly composite operating rate of SMM lead-acid battery enterprises across five provinces was 73.92% from March 20 to March 26, 2026, basically stable WoW. As it was late March, aside from some large lead-acid battery enterprises reporting moderate orders and production line operating rates at full capacity, other small and medium-sized enterprises said that the traditional consumption off-season from April to May was approaching, and producers mainly produced based on sales. At present, the SHFE/LME price ratio for lead remained high, and lead-acid battery costs were higher than those in markets outside China. Coupled with constraints from tariffs, geopolitics, and other factors, orders for export-oriented enterprises in particular were hindered, leaving factory production lines underutilized. If subsequent orders continued to weaken, operating rates would be lowered again.

Next week, due to the Qingming Festival in the Chinese market, SHFE will not conduct night session trading on the evening of April 3; outside China, due to Good Friday, exchanges including the LME will be closed for one day on April 3. In terms of macroeconomic data, key releases are expected to include China’s official manufacturing PMI for March, US ADP employment for March, US retail sales MoM for February, and US ISM manufacturing PMI for March. LME lead, current geopolitical tensions outside China remained prominent, shipping cycles lengthened, and crude oil prices rose, all of which had a significant impact on the base metal market. For lead, consumption in the Middle East was relatively stagnant, supply chains were disrupted, and transportation cycles for lead ingot and lead-acid batteries lengthened. Meanwhile, China’s lead ingot import arbitrage remained favorable, and overseas lead ingot continued to flow into the Chinese market. This week, LME lead ingot inventory fell by nearly 1 kt, and the LME Cash-3M contango narrowed to -$34.62/mt, providing support for lead prices. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,880-1,930/mt next week. SHFE lead, lead ingot inventory was destocked, including inventories at lead smelters and social warehouses, and lead prices showed signs of stabilizing after the decline. However, the lead ingot import window is currently open, while lead-acid batteries will enter the traditional off-season in April, limiting expectations for lead consumption. In addition, some secondary lead smelters recently resumed production and raised output, while new maintenance plans are also scheduled for April. With bullish and bearish factors coexisting in fundamentals, lead prices are expected to continue to fluctuate rangebound. If lead smelter maintenance is implemented as planned, lead prices may have a chance to rise relatively. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,300-16,700 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,250-16,550 yuan/mt. With the traditional off-season for lead-acid batteries approaching in April, downstream enterprises mostly maintained purchasing as needed, with limited procurement enthusiasm. Supply side, both primary lead and secondary lead enterprises saw output increases, and imported lead continued to flow into China, so spot lead premium trading may be difficult to sustain for long.

It was learned that the SMM weekly composite operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises in five provinces was 73.92% from March 13 to March 19, 2026, up 0.46 percentage points WoW from the previous week. Recently, production at lead-acid battery enterprises remained relatively stable. Apart from slight production adjustments at a small number of enterprises, changes in production at other enterprises were relatively small. Over the past two years, as AI development accelerated, battery demand from data centers improved. In particular, lead-acid battery enterprises that secured tender orders had full order books, with production lines operating at full capacity. In addition, for civilian battery products, end-use consumption in the e-bike and automotive battery markets showed mediocre performance. Considering that from April to May is the traditional consumption off-season, some enterprises with average order intake only maintained operating rates at 70-80%, and needed to adjust production based on subsequent order conditions.

It is understood that from February 20 to February 26, 2026, the SMM weekly comprehensive operating rate for lead-acid battery enterprises in five provinces was 29.26%, up 22.93 percentage points WoW. After the Chinese New Year holiday, major lead-acid battery enterprises resumed operations one after another, with most enterprises restarting around February 24 (the eighth day of the first lunar month). As a result, the weekly operating rate for lead-acid battery enterprises increased. According to the work resumption plans of downstream enterprises, the last batch of enterprises on holiday is expected to resume operations before the Lantern Festival. With the gradual return of non-local workers and the increase in production line operating rates, the weekly operating rate for lead-acid batteries is projected to continue rising.

[SMM Analysis] New National Standard for Secondary Lead and Inclusion in Delivery on the Agenda, Market to Shift to "Primary + Secondary Dual-Track Pricing" SMM February 27: Starting March 1, 2026, the "Secondary Lead Ingot GB/T 21181-2025" (hereinafter referred to as the "new national standard") will replace the "Secondary Lead and Lead Alloy Ingot GB/T 21181-2017" (hereinafter referred to as the "old national standard") and officially come into effect.

SMM February 13: Lead prices fluctuated rangebound during the week, with low quotation activity in the spot market. Most smelters halted shipments for the holiday, while a few enterprises, facing high finished product pressure, were willing to sell off goods, but encountered limited purchase interest. The mainstream ex-factory prices for secondary refined lead spot orders, including tax, were at discounts ranging from 100 to 0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, with a few spot cargoes delivered to downstream enterprises at parity. Downstream battery producers resumed production slightly earlier than secondary lead smelters after the holiday, but digesting pre-holiday lead ingot inventory was expected to take 4 to 7 days. SMM anticipated that secondary lead enterprises would show high shipment activity at that time, while downstream purchase willingness would remain low. Losses at secondary lead smelters persisted, and the number of enterprises reducing or halting production increased during the Chinese New Year holiday. Although waste lead-acid battery prices declined slightly, sluggish trading activity in the lead industry chain weighed on lead price trends. As of February 13, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for large-scale secondary lead enterprises was -267 yuan/mt, while for small and medium-scale enterprises it was -474 yuan/mt (by-product revenues in the model exclude tin and antimony). After the holiday, secondary lead smelters concentrated on production resumptions, leading to a surge in demand for waste lead-acid batteries; raw material costs were expected to rise significantly. If purchase willingness among downstream battery producers recovers poorly, lead price increases will face pressure, and SMM expects the loss-making trend for secondary lead to persist. 》Order to View SMM Metal Spot Historical Prices