SMM February 11: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,974/mt, touched a high of $1,981.5/mt during the Asian session before fluctuating downward; it then probed a low of $1,960.5/mt during the European session, before rising to close at $1,977.5/mt, marking a three-day winning streak. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2603 contract opened at 16,660 yuan/mt, touched a low of 16,635 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session before fluctuating upward to a high of 16,750 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,705 yuan/mt, up 0.24%, forming a small bullish candlestick. Enterprises across the lead industry chain gradually entered the holiday period, with trading activity declining significantly. Most primary lead suppliers cleared inventory last week, resulting in scarce spot order quotations; many secondary lead smelters were on holiday and reluctant to sell at low prices, with the majority suspending quotations. Downstream enterprises generally entered the year-end closing phase, having completed stockpiling targets, and showed low willingness to inquire. Additionally, as the Chinese New Year holiday approached, logistics tightened, and the spot market showed thin trading. Overall, pre-holiday lead price movements were less influenced by fundamentals, with attention turning to the impact of overseas market fluctuations on lead prices. Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,974/mt, touched a high of $1,981.5/mt during the Asian session before fluctuating downward; it probed a low of $1,960.5/mt during the European session, then rose in late trading to close at $1,977.5/mt. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2603 contract opened at 16,660 yuan/mt, touched a low of 16,635 yuan/mt early in the session before fluctuating upward to a high of 16,750 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,705 yuan/mt, up 0.24%, forming a small bullish candlestick. On the macro front: CME Group: Plans to launch single-stock futures this summer. US Fed—①Hammack: Economic outlook is positive, inflation remains high, no urgent need for interest rate cuts this year. ②Logan: Adopts a "cautiously optimistic" stance on the effectiveness of current interest rate policy, more concerned about inflation. US December retail sales month-on-month recorded 0%, below the median forecast of 0.4%, previous value 0.60%. According to the EU-China Chamber of Commerce, the European Commission accepted Volkswagen's price commitments for China-made pure electric vehicles. China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued implementation opinions on accelerating the promotion and application of artificial intelligence in the bidding sector. Li Qiang: Reasonably develop rare earth resources, actively promote breakthroughs in key core technologies. The central bank released the China Monetary Policy Execution Report for Q4 2025: Continue to implement appropriately accommodative monetary policy. : Market circulation cargoes were limited in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, coupled with most logistics being suspended, suppliers' quoting enthusiasm significantly decreased, with a few quoting following the market, mainly cargoes self-picked up from production site. Quotations for mainstream origin primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site against the SMM #1 lead average price were at discounts of 30 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt ex-works. Secondary lead side, smelters awaited the holiday, quotations were scarce, a few secondary refined lead quotations against the SMM #1 lead average price were around parity ex-works. Additionally, most downstream enterprises had halted production, some operating enterprises were also in the final stage, spot order procurement basically stopped, and transactions were rare in the spot market. Inventory side: On February 10, LME lead inventory was flat from the previous day at 232,750 mt. As of February 9, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five areas rose to a five-month high. Today's lead price forecast: Enterprises across the lead industry chain successively entered the holiday period, trading activity significantly decreased. Most primary lead suppliers completed clearing inventory last week, spot order quotations were scarce; many secondary lead smelters were on holiday and reluctant to sell at low prices, most enterprises suspended quotations. Downstream enterprises generally entered the year-end final stage, stockpiling targets were completed, and inquiry willingness was low. Additionally, as the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, logistics and transportation have tightened, and the spot market is experiencing light trading activity. Overall, the impact of fundamentals on lead price trends before the holiday has weakened, with attention turning to fluctuations in overseas markets that may affect lead prices. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.

[Lead Smelter Updates] Recently, Yunnan Chihong Zn & Ge Co., Ltd. (600497) stated on an interactive platform that the company primarily focuses on the extraction, enrichment, and efficient recovery technologies of germanium resources associated with lead-zinc mines. By deepening strategic collaboration with its joint venture Chalco Qianxing (Chengdu) Technology Co., Ltd., it continues to provide stable, high-quality germanium raw material supplies. The processing of the mining license and project design optimization for the Jinxin Molybdenum Mine are progressing in an orderly manner. The Huize Mining Mine Plant has not implemented a deep expansion project; instead, it is advancing the optimization of its deep safety system, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2026.

[Lead Smelter Updates] Recently, Yunnan Chihong Zn & Ge Co., Ltd. (600497) responded to investor inquiries on an interactive platform, stating that the Huize mine is currently operating normally. After the completion of the Huize mine safety optimization project, the mine will resume its existing capacity release. The Hulunbuir Chihong rare and precious metals project has already commenced production, with an annual capacity of 380 mt of silver. The Yunnan Chihong comprehensive utilization of resources rare and precious metals project and the zinc alloy capacity expansion project are still in the preliminary planning stage, and whether these projects will ultimately proceed to construction remains uncertain.

[Dynamic Secondary Lead Production] A large lead smelter in south-west China indicated that most raw materials received recently were from previously concluded orders, and officially ceased purchasing waste lead-acid batteries today.

Lead prices were in the doldrums, while secondary lead smelters maintained firm offers due to losses. The mainstream spot order ex-factory prices including tax narrowed the discount to the SMM #1 lead average price by 100 yuan/mt, shifting to a premium of 0–25 yuan/mt, with some smelters halting offers and sales.

Pre-holiday stockpiling by downstream enterprises had largely concluded, and a few had already entered the holiday period, completely suspending procurement. Next week, secondary lead smelters will enter a concentrated wave of production halts and holidays, resulting in sluggish trading activity in the spot market. Offers for spot refined lead orders were sparse, with prices moving in line with the market.

SMM data showed that raw material inventories at secondary lead smelters increased by 20,000 mt WoW. With more secondary lead smelters and scrap battery recycling enterprises entering holidays next week, both supply and demand in the market are expected to remain sluggish. SMM predicts that scrap battery prices will continue to fluctuate at lows.

Lead prices continued to weaken this week, with losses deepening for secondary lead smelters. Most enterprises proactively reduced scrap battery purchase prices to control costs. Meanwhile, recycling companies actively increased shipments due to risk aversion and capital repayment needs, leading to a noticeable rise in raw material inventories for secondary lead smelters.

Lead prices were in the doldrums this week, with some downstream battery producers buying the dip and stockpiling as needed. Additionally, the scale of production cuts and shutdowns at secondary lead smelters expanded, slowing down the supply pace. Combined with downstream demand and tightening supply, weekly finished product inventories of secondary lead dropped by 9,100 mt to 25,700 mt.