In July, secondary refined lead production recorded 169,400 mt, down 12.75% MoM, marking the second-lowest level this year, with the extent of production cuts clearly exceeding earlier market expectations.

[SMM Primary Lead Production] It is understood that national primary lead output rebounded significantly in July 2026, rising 7.44 percentage points MoM and 11.03 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Cumulative primary lead output in January-July 2026 increased 5.41 percentage points YoY, mainly driven by production resumptions after maintenance at lead smelters in southwest China, northeast China, and east China.

[Secondary Lead Production Update] A secondary lead smelter in southwest China had average refined lead output in July, with relatively low recycling volume of scrap batteries. In August, there is a possibility of maintenance-related production suspension. If production continues, it will maintain a similar output level. The final production schedule will be adjusted according to the lead price market trend.

[Secondary Lead Production Update] A secondary lead smelter in east China stopped production in late July. The enterprise stated that there is no production resumption plan for August, and currently the volume of raw material purchases is low.

[Secondary Lead Production Update] A secondary lead smelter in east China suspended production in stages for half a month in July, resulting in limited output; it plans to resume lead production on August 20. The factory has ample inventories of raw materials and lead paste, with no finished lead inventory at present. All subsequent output will be used to fulfill long-term contracts.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Market Supply and Demand Both Subdued Yet Inventory Buildup Risk Persists; Short-term Lead Prices Will Remain Under Pressure] The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting, deciding to convene the Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, to analyze and study current economic situation and economic work. Recently, lead prices have continued to consolidate on a subdued note, with suppliers' hedging willingness strengthening and some lead ingots being gradually transferred to delivery warehouses...

[Secondary Lead Production Update] A secondary lead smelter in North China currently has a daily refined lead output of less than 300 mt, with daily raw material arrivals of only 5-6 truckloads, which is insufficient to support production, leading to continuous consumption of raw material inventory. The enterprise stated that output may be halved or even suspended next month, and production will continue only if raw material supply is sufficient.

[Secondary Lead Production Dynamics] A secondary lead smelter in Northwest China recently halted production, with a daily impact of 120 mt on secondary refined lead output. The enterprise plans to decide on resuming production in August based on market conditions. If lead prices remain persistently weak, it will choose to extend the production halt.

SMM, July 24: This week, secondary refined lead EXW transaction prices were at discounts of 100~50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, and deliveries at parity within industrial parks were transacted. Some suppliers held prices firm and held back from selling, with quotations at premiums of 75~125 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, or even halted shipments. Raw material prices declined in tandem, but smelters remained deep in losses. As of July 24, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss value stood at -498 yuan/mt for large-scale secondary lead enterprises and -679 yuan/mt for small and medium-sized ones. Looking ahead to next week, expectations for secondary lead production cuts persist, with most cargo owners continuing to hold back from selling and waiting on the sidelines. The remaining supplies are expected to transact at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to parity. Lead price rebound space is limited, and the loss situation for smelters will be hard to reverse in the short term.

SMM July 21 News: The SHFE lead 2609 contract opened at 15,900 yuan/mt, during the morning session it first fell then rose, fluctuated narrowly around the 15,885 yuan/mt level, and finally closed at 15,885 yuan/mt, up 75 yuan from the previous settlement, with an intraday gain of 0.47%. Downstream battery demand was weak in the off-season, capping gains. Secondary lead smelters faced deficits and maintenance, while stable scrap battery prices provided support, resulting in a balanced tug-of-war between longs and shorts. In the short term, SHFE lead will continue to move sideways. Going forward, monitor production resumptions at secondary lead smelters and changes in downstream operations. Data Source Statement: All data except for public information is processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models. This is for reference only and does not constitute any decision-making advice.