Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,905/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead consolidated around the daily average line. Entering the European session, LME lead dipped slightly to $1,883/mt, then fluctuated upward. Around midnight, after moving sideways, LME lead futures were dominated by bulls, with the center gradually moving higher to a peak of $1,926/mt, and finally closed at $1,925/mt, up $22/mt, or 1.16%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened higher with a gap at 16,450 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices plunged rapidly, hitting a low of 16,320 yuan/mt before a slight correction. Thereafter, bulls and bears competed, and SHFE lead prices saw wide swings within the 16,355-16,405 yuan/mt range. At the end of the night session, SHFE lead prices fluctuated upward, but due to strong bearish momentum, turned to fluctuate downward and closed at the low of 16,405 yuan/mt. It posted a long upper-shadow bearish candle, up 90 yuan/mt, or 0.55%. On the macro front: 1. Trump: Once the Iran war ends, oil prices will fall rapidly like a rock. 2. Iran's foreign minister denied recent contact with the US special envoy, saying such reports appeared to be only intended to mislead oil traders. 3. Foreign media: The Saudi crown prince suggested Trump continue striking Iran. 4. US Treasury Secretary: There was no intervention in the oil futures market, and oil prices may be "well below" $80 within months. 5. Iranian Foreign Ministry: Ships from parties not involved in the war have already passed through the Strait of Hormuz. 6. Trading in key London Metal Exchange contracts was once suspended for several hours. 7. Li Chenggang: The Chinese and US teams reached preliminary consensus on certain issues. 8. China and the US agreed to study the establishment of a cooperation mechanism to promote bilateral trade and investment. 9. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): From January to February, the national economy got off to a strong start and began well Spot fundamentals: Yesterday morning, SHFE lead fell sharply, once dropping below 16,200 yuan/mt in early trading, before recovering part of the losses. Suppliers shipped in line with the market, while some suppliers were reluctant to sell at low prices. Discounts narrowed significantly from last Friday, especially for primary lead smelter cargoes self-picked up from production site, with quotations in major producing areas quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. In addition, as losses widened at secondary lead smelters, some enterprises suspended shipments or offered quotes at high premiums. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises actively inquired and purchased, with more purchases in major producing areas. However, as market discounts narrowed or turned into premiums, procurement decreased accordingly, and spot market trading was relatively active. Inventory: As of March 16, LME lead inventory increased by 75 mt, or 0.03%, to 284,575 mt; SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions increased slightly again. Lead Price Forecast for Today: After plunging sharply yesterday, SHFE lead recovered some of its losses, while discounts for primary lead spot cargo against last Friday narrowed. As losses widened, secondary lead enterprises quoted at premiums, with some choosing not to make shipments; secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead prices, prompting downstream buyers to favor purchases of primary lead. Overall, support from the spot market and cautious downstream sentiment are in a tug-of-war, making it difficult for lead prices to stage a strong reversal for now, with weak consolidation and sideways movement likely to dominate.

SMM, March 13: During the day, the most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at around 16,550 yuan/mt. In early trading, lead prices fluctuated downward, hitting a low of 16,195 yuan/mt, and then rebounded slightly on buying support, though the rebound was limited. SHFE lead prices saw wide swings within the 16,280-16,370 yuan/mt range and finally closed at 16,315 yuan/mt. A small bearish candlestick was recorded, down 240 yuan/mt, or 1.45%. Recently, factors such as a strong US dollar driven by geopolitical tensions and stagflation concerns have weighed on lead prices. Meanwhile, losses at secondary lead smelters widened, with some enterprises suspending shipments or raising premiums on quotes; premiums for cargoes self-picked up from production sites at primary lead smelters remained firm, and proactive supply-side tightening underpinned spot prices. At present, lead prices are dominated by bears and are expected to remain in the doldrums. Subsequent lead price trends should focus on changes in downstream buying sentiment. Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM News, March 17: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,905/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead fluctuated around the daily average line. Entering the European session, LME lead edged down to $1,883/mt, then fluctuated upward. Around midnight, after moving sideways, the futures were dominated by bulls, with the center gradually lifting to a high of $1,926/mt, and finally closing at $1,925/mt, up $22/mt, or 1.16%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened higher with a gap at 16,450 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices plunged rapidly, hitting a low of 16,320 yuan/mt before a slight correction. Thereafter, bulls and bears competed, and SHFE lead posted wide swings within the 16,355-16,405 yuan/mt range. Toward the end of the night session, SHFE lead fluctuated upward, but as bears gained strength, it shifted to a fluctuate downward trend, closing at 16,405 yuan/mt, near the session low. It formed a long upper shadow bearish candle, up 90 yuan/mt, or 0.55%. After SHFE lead fell sharply yesterday, some of the losses were recouped, and discounts for primary lead spot narrowed from last Friday. As losses widened, secondary lead enterprises quoted premiums, with some choosing not to ship. As secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead prices, downstream buyers favored purchasing primary lead. Overall, support on the spot side and cautious downstream sentiment remained in competition, making it difficult for lead prices to stage a strong reversal for now, with weak consolidation and rangebound sideways movement likely to dominate.

[Magnesium Ingot Transactions Increased Significantly, Rigid Demand Support Became More Evident, and a One-Way Market Was Unlikely in the Short Term] Today, quotations in the main production areas for 99.90% magnesium ingot were 16,600-16,700 yuan / mt, and low-priced supply in the market increased.

SMM, March 17: Aluminum ingot: Today, sentiment in the Foshan A00 spot aluminum market recovered moderately. The rebound in early-session futures prices drove spot prices higher, and suppliers took the opportunity to accelerate cashing out. Traders showed moderate willingness to purchase, while major players held prices firm in procurement, but downstream buyers were unwilling to rush to buy amid continuous price rise. In the afternoon, futures moved downward, buyers turned cautious, and transactions started steady before weakening, with overall performance showing a mild rebound. Aluminum billet: Today, the average processing fees for SMM 6063 aluminum billet (Guangdong) were 70 yuan/mt for Φ90/100 and 20 yuan/mt for Φ120 and above, down 80 yuan/mt from yesterday. The rise in the base price caused processing fees to continue to decline, while weaker intraday futures prices intensified downstream bearish sentiment, with procurement mainly driven by immediate needs. After futures surged and then pulled back, offers were lowered accordingly. Market inquiries were scarce, transactions were sluggish, and even volume discounts remained ineffective in stimulating deals.

Dalian iron ore futures were generally stronger today. The most-traded contract, I2605, eventually closed at 816.5 yuan/mt, up 1.81% from the previous trading session. Meanwhile, the spot price rose by about 5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills made relatively few inquiries. Overall spot market transactions were limited. The latest SMM survey showed that the impact of blast furnace maintenance on hot metal production was 1.751 million mt, down 250,000 mt WoW. This impact is expected to further decline by 229,800 mt next week to 1.522 million mt. As blast furnace maintenance intensity gradually eases, iron ore demand is expected to show signs of rebounding in the short term. Looking ahead, although current port iron ore inventory has reached 155 million mt, the overhang is mainly concentrated in certain varieties. Overall, market demand for some high-demand varieties has seen a structural shift. In particular, varieties represented by IOCJ fines and PB lumps continued to destock rapidly, while MAC fines and Indian fines saw an inventory buildup. The structural contraction on the supply side is expected to lend favorable support to iron ore fundamentals in the short term. Therefore, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs or remain relatively strong this week.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2604 contract opened at 88,450 yuan/mt. After the opening, it hovered at highs and then climbed to 88,940 yuan/mt, before its center moved all the way downward and fell to 87,730 yuan/mt near the close. It finally settled at 87,780 yuan/mt, down 0.37%. Open interest stood at 5,599 lots, down 113 lots from the previous trading day, and trading volume was 3,458 lots, down 1,917 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, Israel launched large-scale attacks in Tehran, Iran and Beirut, Lebanon, while a tanker anchored in the Gulf of Oman was hit by an unidentified projectile. Oil prices rose, intensifying market concerns over US inflation and weighing on copper prices. Fundamentally, arrivals of both imported and domestic cargoes remained stable, and overall supply was ample. Demand side, the slight increase in copper prices somewhat suppressed downstream purchase willingness, with buying maintained at just-in-time procurement levels. The SHFE copper 2604 contract closed at 99,340 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2604 contract price of 87,780 yuan/mt, its tax-inclusive price was 99,191 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2604 contract and BC copper was 149 yuan/mt, and the spread remained in a contango structure, narrowing from the previous day.

SMM, March 17: The SHFE aluminum 04 contract opened higher and extended gains today, with strong bullish sentiment in the market. Sellers held prices firm, buyers showed greater price acceptance, and purchasing enthusiasm also increased. Today, mainstream quotations and transaction prices in the market were concentrated at -10 yuan/mt to +10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 3.12, down 0.05 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.7, up 0.04 MoM. Today, futures prices opened lower and moved higher. Before the opening, quotations in the central China market were relatively high, mainly at discounts of 320-330 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 04 contract, then prices gradually declined. Traders maintained strong bullish sentiment and high enthusiasm for purchase, with overall trading volume relatively large. As suppliers basically finished shipments, circulating spot availability became tight, and market quotations continued to rise, but the transaction scale was relatively small. In the end, the actual transaction price range in the central China market was around 10 yuan below the central China price to 40 yuan above the central China price. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.6, down 0.02 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.38, up 0.02 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 4,000 mt MoM today, with the inventory buildup mainly coming from Guangdong and Gongyi. In the short term, after the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingot inventory has continued its seasonal buildup. Affected by bullish market sentiment, premiums are expected to maintain a narrowing trend.

On March 17, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate remained unchanged.

[SMM Titanium Spot Update: High Costs Drive a Second Titanium Dioxide Price Increase Within the Month, While Diverging Domestic and External Demand Tests the Sustainability of the Hike] In mid-March, titanium dioxide enterprises in China collectively issued a second round of price increase notices within the month, raising domestic prices by 500 yuan/mt and export prices by $100/mt, mainly because elevated sulphuric acid prices forced cost pass-through. At present, enterprises are operating at full capacity, but mediocre domestic demand and foreign trade constrained by geopolitical factors have intensified market divergence. Expectations of tighter sulphuric acid supply still support confidence to hold prices firm, but the sustainability of the price increase remains to be verified by follow-up demand.