[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Geopolitical Issues Remain Volatile, Lead Prices to More Closely Track Fundamentals] Last Friday, US President Trump confirmed that Iran had opened the Strait of Hormuz, declaring the strait situation resolved. However, over the weekend the situation reversed, with Iran firing again to force back oil tankers. Recently, China's lead-acid battery market has been in the off-season, and lead ingot inventory has risen, becoming a strong bearish factor for lead prices. In mid-to-late April...

In the spot market, the price center of lead shifted slightly upward this week (April 13-17, 2026). Downstream buyers mostly made just-in-time procurement on demand and restocked on dips, with weak purchase willingness at high prices. Overall transactions in the spot market eased slightly WoW. This week, mainstream transaction prices of primary lead in Henan maintained parity or a slight discount against SMM #1 lead. Traders offered at a discount of 180-130 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2605 contract. At the beginning of the week, smelters held back from selling at low prices, and spot orders were limited. In Hunan, prices gradually shifted from a discount to parity or a slight premium during the week, with some plants holding prices firm on shipments after their inventory was sold out. In Guangdong, suppliers maintained offers at a premium of 25-100 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead, with transactions supported by just-in-time procurement.

This week, the e-bike and automotive battery replacement market was in a traditional off-season state. Dealers only purchased as needed, and some enterprises reported weakening orders and reduced production. In terms of battery selling prices, there were no sales promotions as typically seen during the off-season in previous years, mainly due to rising raw material costs. Apart from rising lead prices, prices of other auxiliary materials also trended upward. In particular, sulphuric acid prices surged significantly since late March, with smelting-grade sulphuric acid prices rising by over 50%, and quotes in some regions approaching 2,000 yuan/mt. In addition, lead prices fell first and then rose this week. At the beginning of the week, downstream enterprises purchased as needed on dips, and market transactions were moderate. In the second half of the week, lead prices rose, and most downstream enterprises adopted a wait-and-see approach with cautious purchasing, with spot market transactions remaining sluggish.

SMM April 17 News: Lead prices were weak in the first half of this week, with secondary refined lead quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt, and smelters saw sluggish shipments. In the second half of the week, lead prices rose, and quotes pulled back to discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt, with shipment enthusiasm rebounding. Downstream sectors were in the consumption off-season, mainly restocking on dips and purchasing via long-term contracts. The tug-of-war between upstream and downstream intensified. Both supply and demand are expected to be weak next week, with premiums moving sideways. Affected by weak lead prices and high scrap battery costs, secondary lead smelting losses widened. As of April 17, large-scale enterprises posted profits/losses of -200 yuan/mt, while small and medium-sized enterprises posted -404 yuan/mt. Some producers plan to cut or halt production next week to control losses. Weak downstream demand is unlikely to improve, and the industry's loss-making landscape will be difficult to reverse in the short term.

SMM April 17 News: The cost side provided support for lead prices this week, with expectations for both imported and domestic secondary crude lead to hold prices firm. Domestic regular secondary crude lead was mainly transacted at 15,300-15,350 yuan/mt excluding tax, and at a discount of around 75 yuan/mt to the SMM #1 lead average price including tax. Imported crude lead (containing 0.2 Sb, 0.3 Sn) was at a discount of around 50 yuan/mt. Downstream refined lead and alloy smelters purchased on rigid demand, mainly from imported sources. The SHFE/LME price ratio narrowed and the imported lead premium rose. It is expected that the inflow of imported refined lead will decrease going forward, but as March orders were relatively large, some cargoes will still arrive at ports in April.

SMM April 17 News: From April 10 to April 16, 2026, SMM statistics showed that the weekly operating rate of secondary lead across four provinces in China was 41.94%, down 2.87 percentage points WoW. In Anhui, the operating rate dropped 7.67 percentage points due to enterprise equipment failures and raw material shortages. In Henan, some enterprises cut production due to insufficient raw materials. In Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia, as lead prices fluctuated in the first half of the week and recyclers' shipments improved, raw material restocking led to a slight production increase. Next week, the probability of recyclers holding back from selling is expected to rise, and expectations for production cuts at smelters are expected to strengthen, with the operating rate projected to decline by another 0.6 percentage points.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,965/mt. After briefly touching $1,972.5/mt during the Asian session, it fluctuated downward. Entering the European session, LME lead extended its decline, dipping to $1,946/mt late in the session and closing at $1,947/mt, down 0.99%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,750 yuan/mt. After briefly touching a high of 16,765 yuan/mt early in the session, it fluctuated downward to a low of 16,670 yuan/mt, and closed at 16,675 yuan/mt, down 0.6%. On the macro front: On Thursday, US President Trump said the war among the US, Israel, and Iran was “about to end,” and the White House was optimistic about reaching an agreement, saying more face-to-face talks might be held in Pakistan this weekend. US Fed—Williams: if inflation pulls back to 2%, cutting interest rate is an appropriate move, but it has not reached that stage yet; Milan: inclined to cut interest rate three times this year, possibly four times; as of this morning, interest rate futures priced in cumulative interest rate cuts of about 9 bp for the full year. China’s Q1 GDP grew 5.0% YoY. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a special meeting to advance the industrial development of the low-altitude economy for central state-owned enterprises. National Bureau of Statistics: in March, the MoM change in sales prices of newly built commercial residential housing in first-tier cities shifted from flat in the previous month to an increase of 0.2%; value-added industrial output above designated size grew 5.7% YoY in real terms. : After lead prices rose, lead smelters and traders became more willing to make shipments, though differences in shipments remained. Mainstream producing areas were quoted at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 130 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. For secondary lead, losses eased relatively, smelters’ willingness to ship increased, and secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Meanwhile, the lead-acid battery market was in the off-season, downstream enterprises had limited procurement demand and stayed on the sidelines amid high prices, and spot order transactions were sluggish. Inventory: On April 16, LME lead inventory fell by 350 mt to 275,625 mt; SMM social inventory of lead ingots across five regions edged up. Today’s lead price forecast: The lead-acid battery market is in the traditional consumption off-season, downstream enterprises have limited procurement demand, and spot market trading activity is relatively weak. In addition, due to delivery of the SHFE lead 2604 contract, suppliers transferred inventory to delivery warehouses, and overall social inventory continued to rise. Also, medium-to-large secondary lead enterprises in east China saw concentrated production cuts and suspensions, including factors such as routine maintenance and insufficient raw materials. In addition, the SHFE/LME price ratio for lead narrowed, import lead premium quotes rose, and the inflow of imported refined lead decreased relatively. With bullish and bearish factors intertwined on the fundamentals and geopolitical issues recurring, lead prices maintained wild swings in the short term. Data Source Disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM April 17: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,965/mt, briefly touched a high of $1,972.5/mt during the Asian session before fluctuating downward. Entering the European session, LME lead continued its decline, hitting a low of $1,946/mt before finally closing at $1,947/mt, down 0.99%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,750 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 16,765 yuan/mt in early trading before fluctuating downward to a low of 16,670 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,675 yuan/mt, down 0.6%. The lead-acid battery market is in the traditional consumption off-season, with limited procurement demand from downstream enterprises and poor trading activity in the spot market. Additionally, due to the delivery of the SHFE lead 2604 contract, suppliers transferred inventory to delivery warehouses, leading to a continued rise in overall social inventory. Meanwhile, medium and large secondary lead enterprises in east China concentrated on production cuts and shutdowns, including factors such as routine maintenance and insufficient raw materials. Furthermore, the SHFE/LME price ratio narrowed, while import lead premium offers rose, resulting in relatively reduced inflows of imported refined lead. Bullish and bearish factors intertwined in the fundamentals, coupled with recurring geopolitical issues, keeping lead prices in wild swings in the short term. Data source statement: Except for public information, other data are derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, processed by SMM for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.

SMM, April 16: Dealers in Hunan reported that end-use consumption in the e-bike lead-acid battery market remained sluggish, with retailers purchasing cautiously. Current battery inventory stood at approximately one month. There were no signs of sales promotions in the battery wholesale market, with the mainstream model 48V20Ah priced at 380-400 yuan/set. Manufacturers in Jiangxi reported that the e-bike lead-acid battery market was in the off-season, with finished product orders continuing to weaken and battery inventory accumulating. Factory operating rates had dropped to 60-70%. Additionally, lead prices surged significantly today, and raw material lead procurement remained on the sidelines. Manufacturers in Jiangsu reported that e-bike replacement demand was weakening, while OEM orders for complete vehicles were moderate. Factory operating rates were maintained at around 90%, with raw material lead procurement primarily through long-term contracts.

SMM, April 16: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,851 yuan/mt. Boosted by macro sentiment at the start of the session, lead prices fluctuated upward, touching a high of 16,930 yuan/mt. Subsequently, weighed down by weak downstream consumption, lead prices lacked upward momentum and pulled back, ultimately closing at 16,775 yuan/mt, marking a three-day winning streak with a gain of 110 yuan/mt, or 0.66%. Persistently sluggish downstream consumption, coupled with visible inventory increases driven by primary lead deliveries, caused lead prices to encounter resistance on the upside. This week, some secondary lead enterprises cut production due to raw material shortages, tightening supply somewhat and providing certain support for lead prices. Overall, lead prices are expected to continue to move sideways in the short term. Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived from publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.