SMM, March 18: The most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at 16,695 yuan/mt during the day, with prices fluctuating rangebound in the 16,665–16,720 yuan/mt range in early trading. Before noon, SHFE lead prices rose rapidly and touched a high of 16,785 yuan/mt before pulling back amid fluctuations. The tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensified, and prices remained rangebound within 16,610–16,680 yuan/mt before closing at 16,645 yuan/mt, posting a small bullish candlestick, up 45 yuan/mt, or 0.27%. At present, lead prices have stopped falling and rebounded, gradually returning to being driven by fundamentals. On the supply side, ex-works inventory at primary lead smelters continued to be digested, and some suppliers held prices firm in spot lead shipments, providing relatively strong spot support; willingness to sell among secondary lead suppliers diverged, and most enterprises became more reluctant to sell due to losses combined with bullish expectations, leading to a continued contraction in effective market supply. On the demand side, orders from downstream battery plants increased, and production remained at full capacity, providing positive support for lead prices. However, social inventory of lead ingot is still on an upward trend. In addition, as more smelters resume production in mid-to-late March and capacity is gradually released, market circulation will further increase, and lead prices are expected to have limited upward momentum. Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM for reference only based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM News, March 18: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,922.5/mt. In early trading, LME lead fell rapidly to a low of $1,913/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $1,932/mt, after which bears regained control and SHFE lead turned downward. Entering the European session, LME lead dropped sharply before beginning to rebound in fluctuations, with prices posting wide swings in the $1,921-1,931/mt range. It finally closed at $1,926/mt, up $1/mt, or 0.05%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at 16,635 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead edged up to a high of 16,685 yuan/mt, then came under pressure and pulled back to a low of 16,595 yuan/mt. SHFE lead showed a sideways movement overall during the night session, with prices posting wide swings in the 16,620-16,685 yuan/mt range from intraday to the close, and finally closing at 16,670 yuan/mt. It recorded a small bullish candlestick, up 70 yuan/mt, or 0.42%. At present, inventory at primary lead smelters continued to decline, while suppliers held firm on quotes and showed a clear reluctance to sell. Losses at secondary lead enterprises widened, and most producers adopted a wait-and-see attitude and were reluctant to sell, leading to some tightening in overall effective market supply. After restocking at low levels, downstream battery plants slowed their procurement pace, and downstream demand remained weak. The overall pattern of weak supply and weak demand persisted. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Subsequent price moves require close attention to geopolitical factors, changes in operating rates at secondary lead enterprises in mid-to-late March, and actual downstream procurement conditions.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief Review] In terms of supply, coking costs increased and losses widened somewhat. At present, coke producers were barely maintaining normal operating rates, while coke production remained temporarily stable. Meanwhile, downstream demand for coke increased, and coke producers' shipments improved somewhat. On the demand side, steel mills were in an active phase of resuming production, while finished steel prices fluctuated upward and steel mill profitability improved somewhat, boosting production enthusiasm and increasing demand for coke. In summary, the fundamentals of coke supply and demand developed in a positive direction, and the coke market may remain generally stable with slight rise in the short term.

On March 18, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate remained unchanged.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Briefing] Polysilicon: The quoted price for N-type recharging polysilicon was 42-49 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices continued to decline recently, mainly affected by wafer price cuts and market sentiment. At present, low-priced polysilicon has already fallen below the cost line of some manufacturers, and the willingness to hold quotes firm has strengthened somewhat. The upstream market was also still watching wafer price moves. Wafer: In the market, 18X wafer prices were 1.00-1.05 yuan/piece, 210RN wafer prices were 1.1-1.15 yuan/piece, and 210N wafer prices were 1.3-1.35 yuan/piece. Wafer prices remained stable. Current selling prices have already fallen below cash cost, so the likelihood of another sharp price cut was relatively small.

SMM, March 18: The SHFE aluminum 04 contract moved lower today. Affected by the decline in aluminum prices, overall purchase sentiment rose today. Sellers held prices firm, with mainstream quotations and transaction prices in the market mostly ranging from the average price to +10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 3.17, up 0.05 MoM; the buying sentiment index was 3.03, up 0.33 MoM. Today, SHFE aluminum futures prices pulled back, and buying sentiment in the central China market surged. Bullish sentiment in the market was strong, and willingness to buy the dip was significant. Meanwhile, suppliers tended to hold back from selling and turned to purchasing at lower prices to profit from the price spread. Only some trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market took profits on premiums and shipped goods, while the overall reluctance to sell was evident. Market quotations ranged from parity with the central China price to a premium of 60 yuan, but final actual transactions were mainly concentrated at premiums of 30-40 yuan over the central China price. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.59, down 0.01 MoM; the buying sentiment index was 2.42, up 0.04 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased 8,500 mt MoM today, with the inventory buildup mainly coming from Guangdong. In the short term, aluminum ingot inventory continued its seasonal buildup after the Chinese New Year. Affected by bullish market sentiment, premiums were expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Futures Prices Retreated After a Rapid Rise, and Market Divergence Intensified at High Levels] Overnight, the aluminum alloy 2604 contract opened higher and then fluctuated downward, opening at 23,770 yuan/mt, rising to 23,820 yuan/mt during the session, and then pulling back under pressure to a low of 23,525 yuan/mt before closing at 23,645 yuan/mt late in the session, down 80 yuan/mt from the previous settlement price, a decline of 0.34. Open interest edged up by 6 lots to 5,304 lots, with trading volume at 2,417 lots. Wait-and-see sentiment remained strong among market participants, and market divergence intensified at high levels.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,905/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead consolidated around the daily average line. Entering the European session, LME lead dipped slightly to $1,883/mt, then fluctuated upward. Around midnight, after moving sideways, LME lead futures were dominated by bulls, with the center gradually moving higher to a peak of $1,926/mt, and finally closed at $1,925/mt, up $22/mt, or 1.16%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened higher with a gap at 16,450 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices plunged rapidly, hitting a low of 16,320 yuan/mt before a slight correction. Thereafter, bulls and bears competed, and SHFE lead prices saw wide swings within the 16,355-16,405 yuan/mt range. At the end of the night session, SHFE lead prices fluctuated upward, but due to strong bearish momentum, turned to fluctuate downward and closed at the low of 16,405 yuan/mt. It posted a long upper-shadow bearish candle, up 90 yuan/mt, or 0.55%. On the macro front: 1. Trump: Once the Iran war ends, oil prices will fall rapidly like a rock. 2. Iran's foreign minister denied recent contact with the US special envoy, saying such reports appeared to be only intended to mislead oil traders. 3. Foreign media: The Saudi crown prince suggested Trump continue striking Iran. 4. US Treasury Secretary: There was no intervention in the oil futures market, and oil prices may be "well below" $80 within months. 5. Iranian Foreign Ministry: Ships from parties not involved in the war have already passed through the Strait of Hormuz. 6. Trading in key London Metal Exchange contracts was once suspended for several hours. 7. Li Chenggang: The Chinese and US teams reached preliminary consensus on certain issues. 8. China and the US agreed to study the establishment of a cooperation mechanism to promote bilateral trade and investment. 9. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): From January to February, the national economy got off to a strong start and began well Spot fundamentals: Yesterday morning, SHFE lead fell sharply, once dropping below 16,200 yuan/mt in early trading, before recovering part of the losses. Suppliers shipped in line with the market, while some suppliers were reluctant to sell at low prices. Discounts narrowed significantly from last Friday, especially for primary lead smelter cargoes self-picked up from production site, with quotations in major producing areas quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. In addition, as losses widened at secondary lead smelters, some enterprises suspended shipments or offered quotes at high premiums. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises actively inquired and purchased, with more purchases in major producing areas. However, as market discounts narrowed or turned into premiums, procurement decreased accordingly, and spot market trading was relatively active. Inventory: As of March 16, LME lead inventory increased by 75 mt, or 0.03%, to 284,575 mt; SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions increased slightly again. Lead Price Forecast for Today: After plunging sharply yesterday, SHFE lead recovered some of its losses, while discounts for primary lead spot cargo against last Friday narrowed. As losses widened, secondary lead enterprises quoted at premiums, with some choosing not to make shipments; secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead prices, prompting downstream buyers to favor purchases of primary lead. Overall, support from the spot market and cautious downstream sentiment are in a tug-of-war, making it difficult for lead prices to stage a strong reversal for now, with weak consolidation and sideways movement likely to dominate.

Spot #1 copper cathode prices in North China were quoted at an average discount of 60 yuan/mt against the front-month contract today, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 99,020 yuan/mt, down 1,240 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2604 contract opened at 87,780 yuan/mt. After the opening, it hovered at highs and then touched a high of 87,890 yuan/mt. By the close of the morning trading session, its center had fallen to 84,000, after which it returned to its normal trading range. It finally consolidated sideways to close at 87,050 yuan/mt, down 1.62. Open interest stood at 5,432 lots, down 167 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 5,024 lots, up 1,566 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, Trump said he was not yet ready to end the conflict immediately, but said he would withdraw before long; Iran’s supreme leader firmly rejected the proposal for peace talks, insisting on retaliation and compensation. Meanwhile, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and the head of the Basij militia were confirmed dead, and Iran was urgently filling candidates for key positions. Amid the combined impact of escalating geopolitical tensions and demand concerns triggered by elevated LME inventory, copper prices were overall under pressure and bearish. Fundamentals side, arrivals of both imported and domestic cargo remained stable, and overall supply was ample. Demand side, downstream purchase willingness rebounded as copper prices pulled back. The SHFE copper 2604 contract closed at 98,590 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2604 contract at 87,050 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 98,367 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2604 contract and BC copper was 223 yuan/mt, and the spread remained in contango structure, widening from the previous day.