SMM July 2: Intraday, the most-traded SHFE lead 2608 contract opened at 15,811 yuan/mt, saw small fluctuations and edged higher early in the session, but failed to hold above the average price line. It subsequently consolidated and pulled back, dipping to 15,745 yuan/mt before slightly rebounding. In the latter half of the session, it moved sideways weakly in the 15,745-15,760 range, finally closing at 15,765 yuan/mt, recording a bearish candlestick. It fell by nearly 170 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.9%. The primary lead market showed divergence, with production cuts and smelters undergoing maintenance and resuming production coexisting; secondary lead output weakened, and downstream battery manufacturers also cut production, weighed down by sluggish orders, leaving the industry currently with both supply and demand weak. Combined with high LME lead inventories and a continuous inflow of low-grade lead suppressing futures, short-term lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Data source statement: All data other than public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, for reference only and not constituting any decision-making advice.

In May 2026, China's secondary lead production declined significantly, down 18.96% MoM and 9.26% YoY, while secondary refined lead pulled back 19.16% MoM and 15.03% YoY. According to SMM data, spot lead prices were in the doldrums in May, with the SMM #1 lead ingot monthly average price at approximately 16,475 yuan/mt.……

[Secondary Lead Production Update] A large secondary lead smelter in east China has resumed production after furnace preheating. According to the enterprise, lead output is expected in early June, with planned daily production maintained at 500-600 mt.

SMM, May 22: The most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,700 yuan/mt. During the session, SHFE lead prices fluctuated at highs within a narrow range around the daily moving average, touching a high of 16,770 yuan/mt in the later session, recording a three-day winning streak, up 90 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.54%. This week, regional inventory performance diverged. Smelters in east China delayed shipments and retained stock due to weakening lead prices, while finished product inventories in other regions edged down, and overall industry inventory increased slightly. After delivery completion, lead ingot social inventory pulled back slowly, with a weak degree of destocking. As multiple smelters resumed production, secondary lead output edged up, constraining price increases. On the capital front, bears reducing positions drove the market to recover, and lead prices were expected to move sideways in the short term with a fluctuating trend. Data source statement: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

[Ex-China Lead Market Dynamics] It was learned that lead smelters in Malaysia reported insufficient supply of used lead-acid batteries in the local market, which constrained lead smelting capacity utilization rates. Currently, the operating rate of factory production lines was only 50-60%, with monthly production of over 2,000 mt. Moreover, due to tight supply of high-grade lead ingots (lead content ≥99.99%) in the Southeast Asian market, refined lead output had been in a state of undersupply over the past two months.

[Secondary lead production dynamics] A small-to-medium-sized secondary lead smelter in east China cut production due to tight raw material inventory and weak lead price trends, with daily refined lead production declining by approximately 100 mt.

[Secondary Lead Production Update] A large secondary lead smelter in east China recently started furnace drying, and is expected to officially produce lead tomorrow or the day after. SMM estimates its contribution to secondary refined lead output in May will be approximately 2,500 mt.

SMM Analysis: Maintenance Recovery & Falling Zinc TC Shape May Refined Lead Output Outlook SMM May 1 News: In April 2026, China's refined lead production continued its modest upward trend, rising 1.22% month-on-month and 3.01% year-on-year.

In April 2026, China's secondary lead production showed a pattern of MoM rebound and YoY decline. Monthly secondary lead production was up 12.72% MoM and down 24.61% YoY; secondary refined lead production was up 8.7% MoM and down 33.14% YoY significantly.

[Secondary Lead Production Update] A medium-sized secondary lead smelter in east China has started production and begun furnace preheating, with lead output expected to begin in early to mid-May. According to SMM estimates, initial daily refined lead production is estimated at 200-300 mt, with actual output depending on equipment operation, raw material supply, and market conditions.