SMM June 11 news: During the day, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,095 yuan/mt. At the open, concentrated short-covering drove lead prices to fluctuate upward, with the intraday high touching 16,265 yuan/mt. In the afternoon, prices pulled back slightly, and near the close, they moved sideways within the 16,205–16,235 yuan/mt range, finally settling at 16,220 yuan/mt, up 90 yuan/mt, or 0.56%. Today's SHFE lead gains were mainly driven by short-covering. Fundamentals: secondary lead smelters have been slow to resume production, and some enterprises have cut or halted output due to losses and raw material issues, leaving supply-side factors mixed; downstream players mainly made just-in-time procurement, and spot transactions were sluggish. Fundamental support is weak, and lead prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. Data source statement: Data other than publicly available information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models. They are for reference only and do not constitute any decision-making advice.

SMM, June 10: The most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,090 yuan/mt on the day. In early trading, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within 16,055-16,095 yuan/mt, dipping to a low of 16,055 yuan/mt. The price then fluctuated higher from mid-session to the close, ending at 16,130 yuan/mt, forming a bearish candlestick, down 40 yuan/mt, or 0.25%. Secondary lead smelters, weighed down by losses, chose to hold prices firm and delay shipments, while the cost of scrap battery raw materials provided bottom-level cost support. Overall end-use market consumption was sluggish; the recovery in consumption during the traditional peak season fell short of market expectations, and downstream enterprises took a conservative approach to procurement and stockpiling. With the Dragon Boat Festival holiday approaching, lead ingot procurement demand from battery plants remained sluggish, the pace of lead ingot inventory destocking was slow, inventory levels tended to stabilize, and the likelihood of inventory shifting into accumulation later on increased. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, and are processed by SMM. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM, June 9: In the day's session, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,205 yuan/mt, came under overall pressure and weakened after the open, fluctuated downward in morning trading to hit a low of 16,055 yuan/mt, then moved sideways at low levels around the 16,055–16,100 yuan/mt range. In the afternoon, it rebounded slightly with small fluctuations and closed at 16,170 yuan/mt at the end of the session, down 170 yuan/mt, or 1.04%, for the day. The current decline in lead prices is mainly under dual pressure from increased supply from secondary and primary lead smelters and the off-season for lead-acid battery consumption. Downstream participants maintain a strong wait-and-see sentiment, mostly purchasing as needed at lower prices. Meanwhile, social inventory of lead ingots shows a slight destocking trend, and coupled with tightening inventory of scrap battery raw materials for secondary lead, the cost side provides some support for prices. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the near term. Data source statement: All data other than public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM June 5 news: LME lead started the week at $2,015/mt, was pulled up by bulls to $2,046/mt mid-week, then oscillated down after profit-taking pressure emerged, hitting a low of $2,003/mt. As of 3:00 pm Beijing time, it closed at $2,008.5/mt, down 0.15% for the week. SHFE lead contract 2607 opened at 16,580 yuan/mt, surged to a high of 16,720 yuan/mt mid-week, then fell consecutively to 16,365 yuan/mt as profit-takers exited, before rebounding slightly at the end to close at 16,405 yuan/mt, down 0.93% for the week.

SMM, June 4: The most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,500 yuan/mt during the session. The market was in the doldrums throughout the day, with prices persistently under pressure below the intraday moving average. Prices dipped to a low of 16,390 yuan/mt during the session before rebounding slightly near the close, ultimately settling at 16,435 yuan/mt, down 210 yuan/mt or 1.26% for the day, forming a bearish candlestick. Dragged down by the collective weakness across non-ferrous metals, SHFE lead futures were under pressure and trended weak during the session. Currently, both primary lead and secondary lead supply continued to increase, suppressing lead prices from the supply side. Coupled with sluggish recovery in end-use demand, SHFE lead prices were under pressure. However, scrap battery raw material costs provided bottom support, effectively limiting the room for deeper declines. In the short term, lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information was derived by SMM through processing based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models. It is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM, June 3: The most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,705 yuan/mt during the session. Lead prices edged down in the morning session, then moved sideways within the range of 16,605-16,680 yuan/mt. The market continued to oscillate around the daily moving average. Approaching the end of the session, prices came under pressure and moved lower, with the price center shifting below the daily moving average. The contract ultimately closed at 16,635 yuan/mt, posting a bullish candlestick, up 35 yuan/mt or 0.21%. Currently, primary lead and secondary lead enterprises are resuming production successively, and lead ingot supply is rising steadily. Downstream consumption recovery pace remains slow, and social inventory destocking has been hindered, putting periodic pressure on lead prices. However, LME lead prices fluctuating at highs provided support, and overall expectations are that China's lead prices will continue to move sideways within a range. Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived from publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM June 2 News: During the session, the SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,560 yuan/mt, briefly surged to 16,610 yuan/mt at the start before encountering resistance and failing to break through the overhead pressure, then fluctuated downward, dipping to a low of 16,535 yuan/mt. In the afternoon, funds gradually entered the market to support futures, and prices steadily recovered from the lows. Toward the close, prices moved sideways within the 16,570-16,600 yuan/mt range, ultimately settling at 16,600 yuan/mt, up slightly by 40 yuan/mt or 0.24%, recording a small bullish candlestick. Currently, secondary lead smelters have resumed production with increased output, but some primary lead enterprises remain under maintenance, with supply still tight in certain regions. On the demand side, the battery industry is deep in the traditional off-season, with end-use consumption lacking momentum. Downstream producers mostly restocked on an as-needed basis, with limited willingness for large-volume stockpiling. On the cost front, scrap battery supply remained tight with quotes staying high, providing strong floor support for lead prices from the raw material side. With bullish and bearish factors intertwined across supply-demand and cost dynamics, lead prices are highly likely to move sideways within a range in the short term. Data Source Disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM May 29 News: During the day, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,570 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, SHFE lead prices briefly moved higher, touching a high of 16,645 yuan/mt, before pulling back in a fluctuating manner. In the later part of the session, prices moved sideways within 16,520-16,540 yuan/mt, then rebounded slightly near the close, ultimately settling at 16,560 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt or 0.21%. In June, secondary lead smelters in multiple regions including east China, north China, and south China showed increased intentions to resume production, with regional supply expected to rebound. Meanwhile, some primary lead enterprises in Henan and Hunan remained under maintenance, and combined with reduced arrivals of imported lead, regional lead ingot supply remained tight. Overall, bullish and bearish factors were intertwined on the supply side. Demand side, consumption in June was expected to recover compared to May, but the strength of recovery remained to be observed. In the short term, lead prices were expected to maintain a fluctuating trend. Data source statement: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM May 29 Update: Affected by the UK bank holiday closure, LME lead resumed trading after reopening on May 26. LME lead opened the week at $2,011.5/mt, moving sideways within the $2,010–2,022/mt range at the start of the session. It then came under pressure, and despite brief recoveries, the decline continued, hitting a low of $1,990.5/mt. Near the close, bears unwound positions, driving a rapid price rally that touched a high of $2,025/mt. The market held up well into the close, ultimately settling at $2,019.3/mt, up $7.8/mt from the weekly open, a gain of 0.39%. The SHFE lead 2607 contract opened the week at 16,735 yuan/mt. From the weekly open through mid-session, prices held up well within the 16,655–16,820 yuan/mt range, touching a high of 16,820 yuan/mt. Multiple attempts to break through resistance at 16,820 yuan/mt failed, after which the market shifted to fluctuate downward. The price center continued to move lower in the latter half of mid-week, hitting a low of 16,505 yuan/mt. Near the close, prices rebounded slightly, ultimately settling at 16,560 yuan/mt, down a cumulative 175 yuan/mt for the week, a decline of 1.05%.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,000/mt and swung wildly during the Asian session. Entering the European session, it first declined then rose, dipping to a low of $1,990.5/mt before bears reduced positions. LME lead rallied toward the close, touching a high of $2,022/mt and ultimately settling at $2,019/mt, up 0.9%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,560 yuan/mt. It initially fell to a low of 16,505 yuan/mt before rebounding with fluctuations, touching a high of 16,595 yuan/mt toward the close and ultimately settling at 16,570 yuan/mt, down 0.15%. On the macro front: ECB meeting minutes showed that several members were not opposed to a rate hike. Zimbabwe announced that 14 minerals including lithium and nickel were designated as "critical minerals," with mandatory state equity participation. The US April core PCE price index rose further to 3.3% YoY, the highest level since November 2023, in line with market expectations. China's Ministry of Commerce stated that export control measures against Japan were entirely justified, reasonable, and lawful. The NDRC convened a video conference to arrange and deploy nationwide energy supply assurance work for the summer peak season. The Ministry of Commerce responded to the EU's plan to impose additional tariffs on imported steel, stating that negotiations with the EU were underway and a win-win outcome is expected. The Ministry of Commerce responded to the progress of China-US tariff negotiations, stating that the economic and trade teams of both sides will agree on specific arrangements and push for implementation as soon as possible. : Circulating supplies in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai market were limited, with few suppliers offering quotations. The macro atmosphere was weak, with non-ferrous metals generally in negative territory, and SHFE lead also reversed course and pulled back. Some suppliers narrowed their quoted discounts (against the most-traded SHFE lead contract) for shipments. Primary lead from major producing regions was quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis. Secondary lead smelters increasingly held back from selling at low prices, with some adopting a wait-and-see stance and suspending quotations while others held prices firm for shipments. Secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead on an ex-factory basis. Wait-and-see sentiment among downstream enterprises was strong. Some enterprises intended to purchase on dips as needed, with inquiries increasing relatively. Some rigid demand was diverted to lower-priced secondary lead sources, and spot market transactions were moderate. In terms of inventory: on May 28, LME lead inventory surged by 29,700 mt (all from Kaohsiung warehouses) to 314,000 mt. As of May 28, total SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions decreased by 1,700 mt compared with May 24. Lead Price Forecast for Today: This week, some primary lead smelters in Henan and Hunan were under maintenance, tightening regional lead ingot supply. Meanwhile, downstream enterprises picked up goods in the first half of the week, contributing to a declining trend in lead ingot social warehouse inventory. Recently, secondary lead smelters in east China have gradually resumed production, and the regional supply gap of secondary lead has been progressively repaired. Secondary lead production is expected to shift to an upward trend in June. Meanwhile, consumption in the lead-acid battery market has been weak, with producers showing limited rigid demand for lead ingots. In particular, the spread between lead futures and spot prices widened to 200 yuan/mt during the week, prompting some suppliers to transfer inventory and ship to delivery warehouses. Next week, we need to pay more attention to the pressure on lead prices from inventory buildup risks brought by the resumption of production at smelters as the new month begins. Data source disclaimer: Apart from publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.