Next week, key macro data releases will include China's April total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, China's April industrial value-added output of enterprises above designated size YoY, the final reading of the US May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and the final reading of the US May one-year inflation rate expectations. In addition, the Fed Chairman transition has been completed, and the monetary policy meeting minutes are set to be released next week. LME lead side, the ex-China mine and smelting sector is going through a turbulent period. Following the accident at a lead-zinc smelter in Kazakhstan in early May, energy supply conflicts in Peru escalated this week. As Peru is a major lead-zinc mining region, this tightened supply expectations on the mine side, supporting lead prices. Meanwhile, spot lead supply tensions in Southeast Asia remained prominent. On one hand, LME lead inventory stood as high as 265,000 mt, mainly consisting of low-grade lead ingots; on the other hand, countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia faced significant lead ingot supply gaps, with spot premiums rising again, mainly due to the scarcity of high-grade lead ingot resources. Overall, LME lead is expected to continue to hold up well. LME lead is expected to trade in the range of $1,975-2,035/mt next week. SHFE lead side, the issue of rising visible inventory of lead ingots caused by short-term deliveries will ease as deliveries conclude. However, the biggest bearish factors currently come from the lead consumption off-season, while secondary lead smelters have shown signs of production resumptions, putting lead prices under pressure. Additionally, the lead ingot import window fully closed this week, and given the regional tight supply of lead ingots outside China, attention should be paid to expectations of the lead ingot export window opening in H2. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade in the range of 16,350-16,750 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,300-16,600 yuan/mt. Consumption side, the off-season trend in the lead-acid battery market intensified, with downstream enterprises having limited rigid demand and being relatively cautious in procurement. Supply side, production cuts at secondary lead enterprises improved somewhat, with factories in some regions gradually resuming production. Meanwhile, attention should be paid to the materialization of new maintenance at primary lead enterprises. Spot lead is expected to still trade at a slight discount next week (against SMM #1 lead).

As of May 7, the in-factory inventory of major primary lead delivery brands was 20,300 mt, an increase of 5,300 mt WoW. This week, primary lead smelter production was stable with a slight upward trend. However, due to the Labour Day holiday, downstream enterprises were generally on holiday, leading to a temporary absence of lead consumption. Even though downstream enterprises purchased on demand after the holiday and suppliers transferred lead ingots to delivery warehouses, in-factory inventory of primary lead enterprises still accumulated compared to pre-holiday levels. Next week, as the SHFE lead delivery date approaches, suppliers will continue to transfer lead ingots, and the in-factory inventory pressure on primary lead enterprises is expected to ease going forward.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Accident at Ex-China Lead Smelter, Lead Prices May Be Boosted in the Short Term] The US Secretary of Defense stated that the ceasefire has not ended, that the "freedom plan" in the Strait of Hormuz is a temporary mission, and that engagement is not being sought. During the Labour Day holiday, downstream enterprises in China went on concentrated holidays, while from April to May, more lead smelters underwent maintenance or production shutdowns...

[Lead-acid Battery Market Dynamics] It is learned that as the Labour Day holiday approaches, small and medium-sized lead-acid battery enterprises in Guangdong plan to take a 5-day holiday during the Labour Day holiday, which is expected to affect lead consumption by approximately 100 mt/day.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Complex Macro Landscape, Lead Prices More Closely Aligned with Fundamentals] Recently, geopolitical conflicts outside China have been intricate and complex, with wars and negotiations going back and forth, and risk-averse sentiment running high in the market. Meanwhile, LME lead inventory continued to decline...

[SMM Analysis] Why Has LME Lead Shifted Back to Backwardation for the First Time in Nearly a Year? SMM, April 21 — Since late March, London lead prices have stabilized after bottoming out, gradually holding above the $1,900/mt level and entering an upward trend, attempting to approach the $2,000/mt mark.

SMM April 13: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,926/mt, touched a high of $1,948/mt during the Asian session before declining to briefly test a low of $1,915/mt. It then moved sideways during the European session, ultimately closing at $1,930.5/mt, up 0.26%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened high at 16,690 yuan/mt. After the opening, bears increased positions and SHFE lead fluctuated downward, touching a low of 16,580 yuan/mt near the close, ultimately settling at 16,585 yuan/mt, down 0.6%. Weakening lead consumption in China and inflows of imported lead became the main factors dragging down lead prices. As SHFE lead entered the delivery week, suppliers relocated inventory and shipped to delivery warehouses, converting it into visible inventory, which may put lead prices under pressure. Meanwhile, attention should be paid to the fulfillment of maintenance plans by secondary lead enterprises. If production cuts proceed as scheduled, lead prices may have the potential to rebound after testing lows. Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,996.5/mt, touched a high of $1,998.5/mt during the Asian session before moving downward; during the European session, it first rose then fell, with a late-session dive to a low of $1,970/mt, ultimately closing at $1,984/mt, down 0.53%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at 16,700 yuan/mt, fluctuated upward to a high of 16,765 yuan/mt in early trading before weakening, touched a low of 16,670 yuan/mt in late trading, and ultimately closed at 16,705 yuan/mt, up 0.03%. On the macro front: Last Friday, the market awaited the results of US-Iran negotiations, and Israel had sought to negotiate with Lebanon, which brought hope for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the US would not allow Iran to make money by selling oil. An Iranian oil ministry official said the damaged refineries were expected to restore at least 70% of their previous capacity within one to two months. Li Qiang chaired a symposium on the economic situation with experts and entrepreneurs. The second batch of 62.5 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds this year to support trade-in policies for consumer goods was recently disbursed. NBS: CPI rose 1.0% YoY in March, and PPI turned from a YoY decline to an increase. Shanghai Stock Exchange: the price change limit for risk-warning stocks on the main board was adjusted from 5% to 10%. : In the Shanghai market, Hongli lead was quoted at 16,700-16,800 yuan/mt, quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2605 contract. Last Friday, SHFE lead continued to fluctuate downward, and due to limited circulating cargoes in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai market, suppliers held prices firm and shipped at premiums. Meanwhile, quotations for cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters were chaotic, with large price spreads between high and low prices in north China, while south China generally shipped at discounts. Mainstream production areas quoted at discounts of 60 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead ex-works. Secondary lead side, smelters shipped following the market, with secondary refined lead quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price ex-works, among which tax-exclusive cargoes saw more shipments than tax-inclusive ones. In addition, downstream enterprises showed strong wait-and-see sentiment with few inquiries, and some made just-in-time procurement. The spot market showed no signs of improvement in transactions for the time being. Inventory: On April 10, LME lead inventory decreased by 550 mt to 278,225 mt. As of April 9, SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory pulled back slightly. Lead price forecast for today: Weakening lead consumption in China and inflows of imported lead became the main factors dragging down lead prices. As SHFE lead enters the delivery week, suppliers are transferring inventory and shipping to delivery warehouses, converting it into visible inventory, and lead prices may come under pressure and weaken. At the same time, we need to monitor whether secondary lead enterprises fulfill their maintenance plans. If production cuts proceed as scheduled, lead prices may have the possibility of bottoming out and rebounding. Data Source Disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

In the spot market, with the Qingming Festival holiday approaching this week (March 30-April 3, 2026), some downstream battery enterprises mentioned pessimistic expectations for April orders. Coupled with lead prices holding up well, enthusiasm for stockpile procurement declined, and wait-and-see sentiment in the market was strong. This week, mainstream transaction prices for primary lead in Henan fell to parity or small discounts against the SMM #1 lead average price, while some suppliers concluded deals at discounts of 180 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2605 contract. Near the weekend, except for a few producers that held prices firm and held back from selling, smelters and suppliers in Hunan and Guangdong lowered their premiums against the SMM #1 lead average price to quoted premiums of 0-30 yuan/mt, but actual transactions were thin. Downstream producers told SMM that some suppliers in the market were dumping lead ingots at discounts ahead of the holiday to reduce inventory pressure. Lead consumption in the market softened slightly this week, downstream enterprises generally stayed on the sidelines, some procurement demand was postponed until after the holiday, and inquiries and transactions in the spot primary lead market shrank.

Next Monday, markets outside China will be closed for one day on April 6 for the Easter holiday, including the LME and other exchanges. Meanwhile, China will also be in the Qingming Festival holiday, with the SHFE and other exchanges likewise closed. In terms of macroeconomic data, key releases include China’s March CPI YoY and the US March non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, while the US Fed will also release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. LME lead, geopolitical tensions outside China have repeatedly resurfaced and the situation remained relatively severe, with the impact on energy, shipping, and other areas continuing. China’s lead ingot import window had remained open for a long time, attracting overseas lead ingot inflows into the Chinese market and reducing spot lead circulation in Southeast Asia and other markets. Especially during periods of rising LME lead, LME Cash-3M contango further narrowed WoW to -$20.77/mt, which will support lead prices to hold up well. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,890-1,965/mt next week. SHFE lead, lead ingot supply is expected to increase in April, but the consumption side is facing the traditional off-season. Coupled with the Qingming Festival holiday, when downstream enterprises will be on holiday, the risk of post-holiday lead ingot inventory buildup will rise, which will weigh on the upward momentum of lead prices. In addition, delivery of the SHFE lead 2604 contract will come onto the agenda after the holiday, and attention should be paid to changes in plant warehouse lead ingot inventory into visible inventory, with caution against lead prices retreating after rapid rise. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,500-16,900 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,350-16,700 yuan/mt. During the Qingming Festival holiday, many downstream enterprises plan to take time off, leading to a temporary absence of lead consumption. Together with the approaching traditional off-season, downstream enterprises will maintain purchase as needed. On the supply side, production at primary lead and secondary lead enterprises will rise steadily, while imported lead continues to flow into China, making it possible for spot discounts for lead to widen.