According to customs data, lead concentrate imports in February 2026 were 124,580 mt in physical content, up 3.8% MoM and up 26.4% YoY; cumulative imports in January-February reached 252,241 mt in physical content, up 14% YoY on a cumulative basis. Over the same period, silver concentrate imports were about 148,600 mt in physical content, down 17% MoM and down 8% YoY; cumulative imports in January-February were 328,600 mt in physical content, down 1.27% YoY on a cumulative basis.

Next week, the key macroeconomic data will include China's official manufacturing PMI for July, the US's ADP employment figures for July, the US's core PCE price index annual rate for June, the US's unemployment rate for July, and the US's seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for July. Additionally, important events include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Fed announcing its interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged. Meanwhile, He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, will travel to Sweden from July 27 to 30 for economic and trade talks with the US side, mainly focusing on the US's upcoming implementation of tariffs on August 12. Regarding LME lead, the progress of US tariff negotiations has been positive, easing market pessimism. Coupled with the US President's continuous pressure on the US Fed to cut interest rates, the US dollar index has weakened, and non-ferrous metals have generally stopped falling and rebounded. Meanwhile, overseas lead and zinc mine production has decreased, putting significant pressure on lead concentrate supply, which also provides some support for lead prices. It is expected that the center of LME lead's operation will move higher next week, reaching $2,000-2,065/mt. Domestically, for SHFE lead, some primary lead smelters are still undergoing maintenance and have not fully resumed production, leading to prominent regional supply tightness. Spot discounts have narrowed and are trading towards premiums (against SMM #1 lead prices), which may boost lead prices to hold up well. Regarding secondary lead, the resumption of production is gradually progressing, and there are signs of improvement in the inverted price relationship between secondary refined lead and primary lead. Before the price spread between the two reverses, it will still support lead price increases. If premiums turn into discounts, it will mean that this factor is no longer considered favorable. It is expected that the most-traded SHFE lead contract will operate within the range of 16,800-17,100 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,700-16,950 yuan/mt. With the resolution of month-end factors and the initiation of new long-term contracts by downstream enterprises for the new month, procurement volumes for spot lead ingots may relatively decrease. Meanwhile, as lead prices stop falling and rebound, downstream risk-aversion sentiment eases, and it is expected that some purchasing demand will be released, with the two roughly offsetting each other. On the supply side, on the one hand, secondary lead enterprises are gradually resuming production, and primary lead enterprises also have expectations for resuming production. Next week, the circulation volume in the spot market will relatively increase, and spot premium trading will be difficult to rise further, and there is even an expectation for narrowing premiums.

[SMM Lead Market Flash] The supply of domestic lead concentrates remains tight, and the imported ore market is still dominated by sellers. Despite more overseas silver ore bid prices emerging in late May, lead smelters were unable to accept these silver ores due to a lack of sufficient lead concentrates and crude lead for ore blending. Although the price of imported ore pb60TC has declined somewhat, smelters' intention to purchase remains low, and the market still shows a situation where prices are quoted but there is little actual trading.

[SMM Analysis: How is the Expected Production of Primary Lead in June Affected by Tightened Raw Material Supply and Overhauls?] SMM May 30 Report: In May 2025, the national production of primary lead showed a slight upward trend, increasing by 2.39 percentage points MoM and 14.66 percentage points YoY. The cumulative production of primary lead from January to May 2025 increased by 8.41 percentage points YoY.

SMM May 23 News: Recently, Zhuzhou Smelter Group Co., Ltd. released its performance announcements for Q1 2025 and the full year of 2024. In Q1 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 4.803 billion yuan, up 8.5% YoY. Net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm reached 277 million yuan, up 74.07% YoY. Regarding the reasons for the YoY increase in Q1 performance, Zhuzhou Smelter Group stated that precious metals, represented by gold, fluctuated at highs and continuously hit new highs in Q1 this year, bringing a profit-boosting effect to the company. Currently, the global precious metals market is influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts in developed economies, geopolitical risks, and growth in industrial demand, leading to a sustained upward trend in the prices of gold, silver, and other precious metals. The company significantly improved its unit output value and profit contribution by extracting precious metals through mining and refining externally purchased raw materials. According to public information, Zhuzhou Smelter Group is mainly engaged in the smelting, processing, and sales of zinc, lead, and their alloys, while also involved in comprehensive recovery of rare and precious metals, R&D of new materials, and other fields. The company's main smelting products include zinc ingots, hot-dip galvanizing alloys, foundry zinc alloys, lead ingots, lead-based alloys, gold, silver, etc. By-products include sulphuric acid, copper matte, antimony white powder, etc. Mineral products include copper concentrates and gold-sulfur concentrates, as well as minor products such as bismuth ingots, tellurium ingots, cadmium ingots, and indium ingots. On the evening of April 10, Zhuzhou Smelter Group released its 2024 annual report. According to the announcement, in 2024, the company achieved a total operating revenue of approximately 19.759 billion yuan, up 1.82% YoY. Net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, reached approximately 730 million yuan, up 29.71% YoY. The net cash flow generated from operating activities was 1.107 billion yuan, up 60.32% YoY, indicating high operational quality. Zhuzhou Smelter Group stated that the company's operating performance demonstrated strong resilience. Despite the continued sluggishness of processing fees in the market, the smelting segment achieved the annual profit target, while the mining segment achieved increased profits and revenue. Production volumes of copper, lead, and zinc concentrates, gold, and other products all reached new highs, with significant growth in total annual profit and net profit. According to the annual report data, in 2024, Zhuzhou Smelter Group produced approximately 640,000 mt of zinc and zinc alloys and approximately 640,000 mt of sulphuric acid, and completed the production of approximately 100,000 mt of lead and lead alloys, remaining in the first tier of domestic lead and zinc production. Meanwhile, the company achieved a gold production of 3,710.30 kg, up 8.05% YoY, and gold sales of 4,074.96 kg, up 36.42% YoY. Taking the lead and zinc industry as an example, reviewing the market situation over the past year, the supply of lead and zinc concentrates was tight in 2024, with processing fees for lead and zinc concentrates falling repeatedly throughout the year, all dropping below historical lows. According to SMM historical price data, domestic zinc concentrate TCs plummeted to 1,450 yuan/mt (metal content) on August 2, 2024, while imported zinc concentrate TCs fell to -$40/dmt on August 16, 2024, both hitting record lows. In 2024, due to ore shortages and narrowing profit margins, domestic smelters even called for "joint production cuts." Regarding lead concentrate TCs, they also continued to decline amid tight lead concentrate supply in the market. On July 26, 2024, the average domestic lead concentrate TC fell to 550 yuan/mt (metal content), hitting a record low. The lowest imported lead concentrate TC reached -$50/dmt on the same day, also marking a historic low for negative TCs. Even in July 2024, due to insufficient lead concentrate supply, scrap batteries temporarily became a common raw material for secondary lead smelters and some primary lead smelters. The lead paste extracted from dismantled scrap batteries by primary lead smelters became a major source of raw material supplementation. Against this backdrop, Zhuzhou Smelter Group still achieved its annual profit targets on the smelting side, increased profits and revenue on the mining side, and set new production records for copper, lead, and zinc concentrates, as well as gold. Its risk-resistance capabilities are beyond doubt. As a byproduct of lead-zinc ore smelting, gold performed exceptionally well in 2024, with precious metal prices surging strongly throughout the year. International gold and silver prices repeatedly hit record highs. Driven by stronger-than-expected US economic performance and the market's "Trump trade," the US dollar index surged after Trump's election victory, while the RMB depreciated sharply against the US dollar amid potential tariff pressures. Overall, gold and silver prices underperformed overseas markets during the year, with SHFE gold rising approximately 30% and SHFE silver increasing around 32%. However, after entering 2025, the tight supply of zinc concentrates has significantly eased. As of May 16, domestic zinc concentrate TCs have rebounded to 3,300-3,700 yuan/mt (metal content), with an average price of 3,500 yuan/mt (metal content). This represents a 2,050 yuan/mt (metal content) increase from the previous historic low of 1,450 yuan/mt (metal content), marking a 141.38% surge. 》Click to view SMM spot quotes for zinc products In fact, as early as October 2024, with the rebound in SMM's seven-port inventory and a slight increase in domestic imported ore circulation, domestic zinc concentrate supply received some supplementation. Moreover, zinc prices remained high in October, driving up mine profits. Coupled with gradual improvements in raw material inventories at some domestic smelters, the market sentiment was strongly bullish. Based on these factors, some smelters negotiated with mines to raise domestic TCs, leading to a slight rebound in TCs across multiple regions in China in October. After that, domestic smelters continued to operate at low capacity utilization rates, and the days of raw material inventories at smelters continued to recover. In December, domestic zinc concentrate TCs increased slightly on a MoM basis, reversing the previous trend of consecutive declines. In January 2025, the pressure on smelters' raw materials continued to ease. Coupled with the sustained high zinc prices in Q4 2024, smelters were able to negotiate with mines to increase zinc concentrate TCs, leading to a significant increase in domestic zinc concentrate TCs in January. While domestic TCs were rising, smelters showed low purchase willingness for imported zinc ore TCs, which also prompted a noticeable rebound in imported zinc ore TCs. In February, domestic zinc concentrate TCs continued to rise, mainly due to the Chinese New Year holiday, during which some enterprises conducted maintenance and took holidays, leading to a decrease in overall production. This boosted the continuous rebound in both domestic and imported TCs. Additionally, smelters continued to refuse to budge on prices to achieve profitability. The days of raw material inventories at domestic smelters remained at around 28 days, indicating a relatively high level of raw material stocking. Coupled with the intermittent opening of the import window, the port arrivals of zinc concentrates increased, and port inventories once surged to over 400,000 mt, replenishing smelters' raw material inventories and maintaining them at a high level overall. Under the combined influence of these factors, the supply of zinc concentrates in February was loose, and TCs continued to rise. Entering March, driven by the supplement of imported ore and the expectation of the gradual resumption of production at domestic mines, domestic smelters continued to raise their TCs quotes. As of March 28, domestic zinc concentrate TCs increased to 3,400 yuan/mt (metal content). In the past two months, the increase in domestic zinc concentrate TCs has significantly slowed down. SMM learned that although some smelters will conduct maintenance in May and smelters continue to refuse to budge on prices, considering profit factors, miners have a strong willingness to keep zinc concentrate TCs flat in May. Under continuous negotiations between the two parties, the increase in zinc concentrate TCs in May compared to April is limited. Looking ahead, despite the significant increase in overseas zinc mine output this year, there is no obvious increase in domestic zinc mine output except for Huoshaoyun. Moreover, with improved profits, smelters are highly motivated to produce, and new smelters put into operation in Q2 in China are also gradually ramping up production. With both supply and demand increasing, there may be limited room for future increases in domestic zinc concentrate TCs, and it is necessary to continuously monitor the subsequent inflow of imported zinc ore. In addition, the announcement also mentioned that the company has a lead-zinc-copper mining and beneficiation capacity of 860,000 mt, with relatively high lead-zinc geological grades, making it a well-endowed mine in China with a certain advantageous position. From the perspective of resource value, lead-zinc mines are rich in gold and silver, with high value per ton of ore. According to the data from the annual reserve report of the Shuikoushan Lead-Zinc Mine mining right, the Kangjiawan mining area under the Shuikoushan Lead-Zinc Mine mining right has a reserved resource volume of 11.807 million mt and a reserve volume of 4.953 million mt, placing its overall mine value among the top in the country. The company has a production capacity of 860,000 mt for lead-zinc-copper mining and beneficiation, 680,000 mt for zinc products, and 100,000 mt for lead products. It also comprehensively recovers various rare and precious metals such as copper, gold, silver, bismuth, indium, cadmium, and tellurium. Relying on the copper-lead-zinc industrial base, it has significant industrial synergy advantages. In 2025, the company aims to produce 643,000 mt of zinc and zinc alloy products, 103,500 mt of lead and lead alloy products, 860,000 mt of raw ore from mines, 3.8 mt of gold, and 295 mt of silver. In terms of mines, the company holds the mining rights for the Shuikoushan Lead-Zinc Mine and the Baifang Copper Mine, operating three mines (the Kangjiawan Mine and the Lead-Zinc Mine both fall under the Shuikoushan Lead-Zinc Mine mining rights) and one beneficiation plant, with an annual raw ore mining and beneficiation capacity of 860,000 mt. In zinc smelting, it has a zinc smelting capacity of 300,000 mt, a deep-processing capacity of 380,000 mt for zinc-based alloys, and a total zinc product capacity of 680,000 mt, ranking among the top in the country. In lead smelting, it operates two lead and precious metal smelters, with a production capacity of 100,000 mt for lead smelting, 4,500 kg of gold, and 470 mt of silver.

【SMM Weekly Review: Lead Concentrate Market Weekly Brief (March 22, 2025 - March 28, 2025)】Approaching the month-end of March, domestic lead concentrate supply gradually recovered. The strengthening prices of precious metals increased mine profits, prompting some silver-lead-zinc miners to slightly raise their Pb50TC by 100 yuan/mt (metal content). However, smelters indicated that mainstream low-silver lead mines did not increase their Pb50TC quotes. Lead smelters still maintained high demand for the recovery of valuable metals such as silver, copper, and zinc.

[SMM Weekly Review: Weekly Brief on Lead Concentrate Market] The supply of lead concentrates in March did not ease as expected. During the week, the arrival of imported lead temporarily alleviated the pressure on refined lead raw material supply but failed to address the supply gap of silver-bearing lead ore.

In 2025Q1 , the recovery of global lead concentrate supply has been slow, particularly as production in major mining countries failed to meet expectations. Meanwhile, the resumption of refined lead smelter after technological transformation and maintenance further exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance.Mar-25, the MOM in lead concentrate supply lagged behind that of refined lead, and the supply gap for lead concentrates is expected to widen. On the supply side of lead concentrates, multiple factors imposed constraints. On one hand, stricter environmental protection policies slowed down mining progress at numerous small mines. On the other hand, in newly commissioned lead-zinc projects aimed at expanding capacity, the growth in lead concentrates was far less than that of zinc concentrates. Due to the scarcity of new silver-lead mining projects, the strengthening of gold and silver prices led holders of already scarce silver-lead resources to offer lower RCs or further reduce Pb50 and Pb60 TC. The insufficient supply of lead concentrates drove up raw material procurement costs for smelters. According to SMM, despite a significant decline in operating rates at domestic smelters in February, their raw material inventories were moderate enough to sustain March production. In stark contrast to lead concentrate supply, the supply of refined lead from primary lead smelters stabilized and recovered in March. Large smelters in Hunan, Yunnan, and Jiangxi completed their production cuts and maintenance in February, with an expected increase of approximately 65,000 mt in metal content on a MoM basis. The mild increase in lead concentrate supply, combined with insufficient replenishment of recycled materials and the anticipated production increase in primary lead smelting in 2025Q2, makes Pb50 and Pb60 TC prices more likely to fall than rise. Some small-scale smelters have already delayed shutdowns due to tight raw material supply, and further restrictions on raw material supply may limit the release of additional refined lead capacity in the future.

[SMM Analysis: March Lead Concentrate Supply Recovery Falls Short of Primary Lead Production Release Expectations; Lead Concentrate TC More Likely to Fall Than Rise] In Q1 2025, the global recovery of lead concentrate supply progressed slowly, particularly as production in major mining countries failed to meet expected levels. Meanwhile, the resumption of refined lead smelting capacity after technological transformation and maintenance further exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance. In March, the increase in lead concentrate supply lagged behind refined lead supply, and the lead concentrate supply gap is expected to widen.

[SMM Weekly Review: Weekly Brief on Lead Concentrate Market] As the end of February approaches, there is no expectation of price adjustments for March Pb50TC in the market, and smelters are not expecting a recovery in lead concentrate supply in Q1. This week, silver prices weakened, prompting some smelters to actively inquire and buy the dip. TC for certain high-silver lead ores slightly decreased, but mainstream Pb50TC quotations remained at 500-800 yuan/mt (metal content).