This week, ferrous metals fluctuated downward, with raw materials declining significantly more than finished steel. Cost-side logic weakened further during the week. Mid-week, both the U.S. and Iran indicated they had entered the final stage of finalising negotiation details, causing overseas market crude oil to plunge and dragging down the coal sector. In the latter half of the week, rumors emerged that negotiations between China Mineral Resources and BHP would be announced next week, with iron ore leading the downward trend. On the finished steel side, inventories of the five major steel products continued to destock, maintaining a structure of both rising supply and demand. Spot market side, futures were weak, end-user purchasing enthusiasm was lukewarm, the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat, and some market arbitrageurs between spot and futures began to take profits...

Since March, the domestic tungsten market has trended higher and then pulled back. Driven by rigid supply and macro sentiment at the beginning of March, prices rose rapidly, with 65% wolframite concentrate hitting a record high of 105,000 yuan per standard ton. Starting from mid-March, profit-taking by investors, downstream resistance to high prices, and a general correction in commodity markets led to a gradual price pullback, pushing the entire market into a phase of supply-demand game.

[SMM Platinum & Palladium Weekly Review] This week (April 6 – April 10), on China's Guangzhou Futures Exchange, the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 opened at 502.9 yuan/gram and closed at 521.45 yuan/gram, up 19.2 yuan/gram or 3.82% from last week's settlement price, with a highest price of 529.5 yuan/gram and a lowest price of 496.65 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium contract PD2606 opened at 377.85 yuan/gram and closed at 385.05 yuan/gram, up 7.65 yuan/gram or 2.03% from last week's settlement price, with a highest price of 399.85 yuan/gram and a lowest price of 366.2 yuan/gram. Futures trading: the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 18,133 lots with a total turnover of 9.348 billion yuan and open interest of 15,303 lots, a WoW decrease of 1,287 lots. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 11,379 lots with a total turnover of 4.348 billion yuan and open interest of 7,216 lots, a WoW increase of 88 lots. US-Iran conflict, Israel launched its most intense airstrikes on Lebanon to date. On April 9, the Speaker of Iran's Parliament issued a statement saying that three key provisions in the proposal (comprehensive ceasefire, airspace security, and uranium enrichment rights) had been violated before negotiations even began, and under such circumstances, a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations would be unreasonable. Iranian media issued a statement claiming the Strait of Hormuz had been fully closed. US Fed monetary policy, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson noted that employment faced downside risks while inflation faced upside risks. Nick Timiraos wrote that the ceasefire agreement made the US Fed's decision-making more difficult, as energy fluctuations persisted, leading to a prolonged period of rates being held steady. Tariff side, tariff policy has been one of the core political assets during Trump's administration. If high tariffs cannot be maintained through legal channels, his political influence and foreign negotiation leverage will be significantly weakened. After the "reciprocal tariffs" were overturned by the Supreme Court, the Trump administration implemented temporary tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Expansion Act in the short term to fill the policy vacuum, and in the medium and long-term may rely on Sections 232 and 301 to sustain a high-tariff policy framework, while threatening on social media to impose 50% tariffs on countries providing military weapons to Iran. Against this backdrop, the final determination in the anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations on Russian unwrought palladium is highly likely to maintain the affirmative conclusions of the preliminary ruling. Additionally, the tariff illegality ruling triggered massive tax refund pressures, exacerbating the US fiscal burden, and after geopolitical premiums are digested, will reinforce the "weak US dollar" logic. Palladium new demand, attention should be paid to China's fiberglass industry's transition from platinum to palladium. Starting April 2026, full-year testing will be conducted, and if successful, annual demand could reach 800,000 ounces, potentially offsetting declining demand from the automotive industry. Watch for palladium test results in the fiberglass sector. Watch for the US International Trade Commission's final-stage injury hearing on the palladium anti-dumping and countervailing duty case on April 27. Watch for the transition following LBMA's appointment of IBA as the platinum and palladium price auction administrator.

SMM April 10 News: Dealers in Hunan reported that end-use consumption in the automotive storage battery market was weak, retailers were cautious in purchasing, and battery inventory exceeded one month. In addition, selling prices in the battery wholesale market remained unchanged for the time being, with the wholesale price of 6-QW-60Ah at 260-300 yuan/unit. Manufacturers in Zhejiang reported that the automotive storage battery market entered the traditional peak season, but orders in April weakened MoM. Coupled with mediocre battery exports, the current factory operating rate was at 60-70%, and raw material lead was mainly purchased through long-term contracts. Manufacturers in Hebei reported that replacement demand in the automotive storage battery market was weakening, while OEM orders were moderate. Currently, factories produced based on sales, with production line operating rates at around 90%, and raw material lead was purchased as needed.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] News: Leading coke enterprises initiated a coke price increase of 50-55 yuan/mt, effective from 00:00 on April 13. In terms of supply, coke enterprises suffered relatively small losses, and production enthusiasm was moderate. Current coke supply remained stable. Combined with good shipments from coke enterprises, coke inventory continued to stay at low levels, with some coke enterprises holding back from selling. Demand side, steel mills maintained strong production enthusiasm, hot metal production increased again, and daily coke consumption rose. Additionally, affected by maintenance on some railway sections, coke deliveries were disrupted, and coke inventory at some steel mills declined slightly. In summary, some coke enterprises still held bullish expectations for the market outlook, and the coke market is expected to be generally stable with slight rise in the short term.

【SMM Steel】Preempting Middle East instability, Vale advanced maintenance at its two Oman pelletizing plants by several weeks to mitigate regional risks. The Oman facilities have ~9 Mt/y capacity, ~29% of Vale's total pellet output based on 2025 data. Although the shutdown duration isn't specified, the near-term impact is significant. Vale is maintaining its current annual production guidance for now.

Since April, the lead-acid battery market has shown off-season trends. Dealers were cautious in procurement, and orders for producers generally pulled back compared to March. Even though lead prices held up well recently, selling prices in the battery wholesale market struggled to catch up, with some regions even showing tendencies toward price cuts and sales promotions. On the producer side, after lead prices rose, factories produced based on sales and reduced non-just-in-time procurement. Some enterprises only made purchases through long-term contracts, and trading activity in the lead spot market was poor.

SMM April 10: LME lead opened at $1,931/mt this week. Early in the week, prices fluctuated higher amid geopolitical tensions, touching a high of $1,962.5/mt. From mid-week onward, the market weakened and fluctuated downward, dipping to a low of $1,919.5/mt before rebounding slightly at the close, ultimately settling at $1,923/mt, down $9 from the weekly open, a decline of 0.47%. The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,755 yuan/mt this week. Early in the week, lead prices experienced wild swings within the 16,660-16,805 yuan/mt range, briefly surging higher during the session on easing geopolitical tensions and touching a high of 16,885 yuan/mt. Prices subsequently pulled back as bulls took profits and downstream consumption remained weak, dipping to a low of 16,575 yuan/mt at the close, ultimately settling at 16,685 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan WoW, a decline of 0.6%. 》Subscribe to view SMM metal spot historical prices

In April, the supply of lead concentrates in the Chinese market was slightly looser compared to March. Smelters indicated that quotations for lead concentrates of different qualities varied significantly in the market. After some lead concentrate prices saw slight increases at the beginning of the month, lead concentrate prices remained stable this week. Although smelters attempted to negotiate on the silver payable indicator, apart from a few cases where silver-bearing lead concentrates with silver content above 2,500 grams per mt in physical content saw slight reductions in the previously raised coefficients, traders and mine enterprises generally preferred to raise TCs instead of adjusting the payable indicator. As a result, the silver payable indicators for lead concentrates with various silver contents in the market did not show significant changes.

In the spot market, this week (March 30 - April 3, 2026), as delivery approached, downstream consumption remained sluggish and wait-and-see sentiment was strong. Multiple smelters lowered their spot premium quotes, and suppliers continued to transfer inventory and ship to delivery warehouses. This week, mainstream transaction prices of primary lead in Henan maintained parity or slight discounts against SMM #1 lead, with some suppliers quoting discounts of 200-180 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2605 contract, while a few suppliers held prices firm and held back from selling. Toward the weekend, smelters in Hunan gradually shifted to discount quotes, and smelters in Guangdong slightly lowered their SMM #1 lead premiums to 0-50 yuan/mt, with transactions driven by rigid demand.