(Kitco News) - China has already cemented its position as one of the world's most important gold markets, and the country's next wave of industrial investment could elevate platinum to a similarly strategic role as artificial intelligence and clean energy reshape global demand, according to the latest report from the World Platinum Investment Council. China’s evolving influence in PGM markets was a dominant theme to emerge from the WPIC’s annual Shanghai Platinum Week, where industry leaders highlighted China's 15th Five-Year Plan as a major catalyst for future platinum consumption. According to the WPIC, Beijing has earmarked nearly $300 billion for AI infrastructure development through 2030, creating new demand for platinum group metals across a wide range of technologies, from semiconductor manufacturing and hard disk drives to industrial crystal production, printed circuit boards, optical interconnects and hydrogen-powered backup systems for data centers. Platinum is also expected to benefit from the rapid expansion of China's hydrogen economy, where the metal plays a critical role in both hydrogen production and fuel-cell electric vehicles. "The prospect of significant growth from AI-related platinum demand is an overlay that the market is only just beginning to appreciate," said WPIC Chief Executive Officer Trevor Raymond. "Crucially, it has not yet been fully factored into platinum's supply/demand outlook." The comments suggest platinum could increasingly mirror gold's evolution in China. Over the past two decades, the country has become one of the world's largest consumers of physical gold as investors sought portfolio diversification and policymakers steadily increased official reserves. Now, industrial policy centered on AI, advanced manufacturing and hydrogen technology could position platinum as another strategically important hard asset. The strengthening demand outlook comes as the platinum market is already facing persistent supply constraints. WPIC forecasts the platinum market will post its fourth consecutive annual supply deficit in 2026, further reducing above-ground inventories to less than three months of global demand by year-end. At the same time, mine supply remains largely unable to respond quickly to higher prices because of the industry's long development timelines and the concentration of production in deep underground operations. "On current fundamentals, the value proposition for platinum remains compelling," Raymond said, noting that structurally tight supplies continue to underpin the market. While the supply outlook remains constrained, mining executives speaking at the conference expressed confidence that existing operations and brownfield expansion projects will be able to meet longer-term demand growth. Beyond industrial demand, the conference highlighted growing investment interest in platinum in China. WPIC noted that China has become the world's largest market for newly minted platinum bars and coins since 2023. Physical investment demand has grown from less than one tonne in 2019 to nearly 13 tonnes in 2025. During Shanghai Platinum Week, the council also announced a strategic partnership with Beijing Caishikou Department Store (Caibai) to launch the retailer's first platinum investment bar series, placing platinum alongside its established lineup of gold and silver bullion products. The council said it also plans to work with Chinese financial institutions to broaden investor access through platinum accumulation plans and exchange-traded funds, further integrating the metal into China's growing precious metals investment market. Although sentiment during the conference was optimistic, analysts note that the precious metal continues to struggle as persistent inflation fears have forced central banks to adopt tightening biases, raising the opportunity costs of holding real nonyielding assets. However, analysts expect prices to remain well supported by robust fundamental demand over the long term. The latest WPIC analysis comes as platinum prices continue to struggle around $1,600 an ounce. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-16/chinas-ai-ambitions-could-make-platinum-next-strategic-precious-metal-after

Published: Jul 14, 2026 - 3:39 AM (Kitco News) - The gold market may be consolidating around $4,000 an ounce, but one market strategist believes investors should focus less on short-term price swings and more on gold's evolving role in the global financial system. In an interview with Kitco News, Robert Minter, Director of Investment Strategy at Abrdn, said the recent correction has done little to damage the long-term investment case for gold . Instead, he argued that the liquidation has largely removed speculative excess while leaving the market's strongest sources of demand intact. "I don't think anything has structurally hurt the gold market," Minter said. "I view the removal of length as a positive." According to Minter, the recent weakness reflects a combination of technical factors rather than a deterioration in gold's underlying fundamentals. He pointed to China's crackdown on leveraged precious metals trading, the unwinding of speculative positions and changes in retail investment flows that have weighed on prices over the past several months. While those factors have created short-term volatility, Minter said that he believes they have left the market in a healthier position. More importantly, he argues that gold occupies a much different place in the global financial system than it did only a few years ago. "Clearly gold is an even more structurally important asset than it was before," he said. That conviction is reinforced by continued central bank demand. Minter noted that China's central bank used the recent correction to add another 15 tonnes of gold to its reserves , precisely the type of buying he expected from official institutions. "That's exactly what we told people they would do,” he said. Rather than viewing the correction as a warning sign, Minter said many professional investors are treating prices around $4,000 as an opportunity to increase allocations. "They're looking at $4,000 as, 'What's the right level for me to buy more gold ?'” he said. Minter also challenged the market's increasingly hawkish interpretation of U.S. monetary policy. Although Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has emphasized price stability since taking office, Minter believes investors have become overly focused on the Fed's rhetoric. "Warsh is the boy who cried hawk," he said. "He's not a hawk." Minter argued that Warsh has intentionally adopted a tougher tone to establish anti-inflation credibility but is simultaneously rewriting the Federal Reserve's policy framework by abandoning many of the indicators investors have traditionally relied upon. He added that this shift reflects a recognition that the Fed's traditional models no longer adequately capture an economy shaped by slower population growth, changing labor dynamics and evolving inflation pressures. Despite the hawkish messaging, Minter said many advisers and institutional investors remain unconvinced that significantly tighter monetary policy is coming. He added that ETF investors, who typically respond quickly to changes in interest-rate expectations, also appear skeptical. "I don't think anyone’s buying the hawk commentary." Instead of focusing on upcoming inflation reports or the timing of the next rate move, Minter said investors should pay closer attention to the long-term trajectory of sovereign debt and global currencies. "I think the major risk in the market is the currency risk," he said. " Gold continues to be the only currency that isn't somebody else's debt." That theme, he added, is becoming increasingly difficult for governments to escape. "I don't see any governments anywhere that have a policy of we're going to pay down our country's debt and get it under control." With debt burdens expected to continue rising across the developed world and central banks continuing to diversify reserves, Minter said gold 's role has evolved beyond a traditional inflation hedge into a core monetary asset. He added that for investors willing to look beyond the current consolidation, he sees little evidence that the secular bull market has been fundamentally altered. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-13/abrdns-minter-says-bullion-now-structurally-important-asset

Published: Jul 14, 2026 - 3:56 AM (Kitco News) – Gold’s recent price decline reveals an important paradox: a stronger U.S. dollar can pressure gold prices in the short term while ultimately strengthening gold's long-term investment case, according to Paul Wong, managing partner and market strategist at Sprott Inc. In his latest in-depth monthly analysis of the gold market, Wong pointed out that spot gold lost $532.24 per ounce in June – nearly 12% – to finish the month at $4,008 for its fourth consecutive monthly loss. “June’s monthly decline was the largest since October 2008,” he noted. “For the quarter ended June 30, gold fell by $660.04, or -14.14%, the worst quarter since the second quarter of 2013, which is when the Federal Reserve (Fed) began its first rate-hiking cycle after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.” Wong said gold's latest and deepest monthly correction pushed market sentiment into extreme bearish territory. “The June selling wave in gold began with the signing of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. and Iran, which sent oil prices plummeting and the U.S. dollar rising,” he said. “The second selling wave was catalyzed by the market’s hawkish interpretation of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks after the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). This was Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as Fed chair.” Wong said that rising rate hike expectations drove short-end yields higher, which served to further strengthen the U.S. dollar. “Most quant traders would have interpreted a U.S. dollar breakout combined with rising short-term rates as bearish for gold.” “Investment funds sold gold in the March to May period to unwind extremely leveraged positions,” he noted. “They continued selling during June as macro readings worsened and sovereign-related entities pulled back on gold buying. It was commodity trading advisors, quant and algo-type funds that predominantly drove the waterfall declines in June as they sold further or entered modest short positions.” “The drop in gold prices appears to be much more significant than the actual moves in the U.S. dollar and federal funds rates,” he added. “It suggests that much of the potential negative effects of a higher-rate, stronger-dollar combination have already been discounted.” Wong wrote that gold’s decline in the first half of 2026 matches previous periods of extreme bearish sentiment. “In June, gold fell below its 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2023 (see Figure 1) and has now reached extreme oversold levels,” he said. “Over the past decade, gold has tended to find support when prices fall to 90% of its 200-day moving average (Figure 1, lower panel). The drawdown has reached -26% (Figure 1, middle panel), the largest drawdown in a decade since the lows of 2016.” Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index has increased by 2.91% year-to-date, while U.S. two-year Treasury yields have risen by 70 basis points year-to-date. “At the beginning of the year, fed funds futures were pricing in 2.3 rate cuts for the remainder of 2026,” Wong noted. “This has now shifted to 1.5 rate hikes due to the change in inflation expectations.” Wong said the emerging policy conflict at the Fed is one of the most significant narratives for markets. “One of the biggest questions facing markets today is whether Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is a hawk or a pragmatist,” he wrote. “Will he prioritize inflation control or accommodate the political and market pressures for lower interest rates? Warsh inherited an economy that remains surprisingly resilient. Labor markets are strong, growth is solid, asset prices are elevated, and inflation is still running well above the Fed’s 2% target. Simultaneously, President Trump has repeatedly called for lower rates. There is a tension between economic realities and political expectations.” Wong noted that the debate is now shifting from the expectation of rate cuts to potential rate hikes. “Warsh's inherited problem is that inflation never really died,” he said. “The economy has refused to slow, job openings remain elevated, payroll growth has surprised to the upside, consumer spending is healthy, and manufacturing and services activity continue to expand. Meanwhile, inflation remains sticky. Core PCE inflation8 is running around 3.3–3.4%, headline CPI inflation remains above 4%, and services inflation continues to prove difficult to tame.” “The AI buildout is also creating new inflationary pressures as memory shortages and rising component costs feed into consumer prices,” he added. “Investors are increasingly concerned that inflation may be more persistent than policymakers and markets expected.” But despite this persistent inflation, investors seem to doubt that Warsh will be genuinely hawkish on monetary policy. “Many continue to believe in the ‘Fed put,’ the idea that significant market weakness would eventually force policymakers to reverse course and lower rates,” Wong said. “Trump’s preferred outcome appears straightforward: lower rates, strong growth, rising equity markets and continued investment. The challenge is that the current economic backdrop does not clearly justify an easier policy. Warsh, therefore, finds himself caught between political demands for easier money and economic data that may argue for tighter policy. Maintaining Fed independence while navigating those pressures could prove challenging.” “The rising tension between inflation, politics and central bank credibility creates an environment that has historically supported gold,” Wong said. “Ultimately, the question is whether the Fed remains willing and able to prioritize price stability over political and market pressures. The answer to this question may prove far more important for gold than the precise path of interest rates over the next few quarters.” Wong also updated his analysis of another key market narrative: The cyclical strength of the U.S. dollar within a broader secular decline. “For years, we have maintained the view that the U.S. dollar is in long-term decline, not necessarily in exchange-rate terms, but in its purchasing power and role as the dominant store of monetary value,” he wrote. “Massive fiscal deficits, a rising debt burden, persistent monetary expansion, accelerating central bank gold purchases and increasing geopolitical fragmentation all point toward the gradual erosion of the U.S. dollar-centric system.” But the reality, Wong said, is more nuanced. “Despite repeated predictions of its demise, the dollar continues to stage powerful rallies periodically,” he said. “These rallies put pressure on commodities, precious metals, emerging markets and risk assets.” “Gold may be in a secular bull market, but it has also experienced sharp corrections alongside silver, copper, oil and other hard assets,” he warned. “A weakening monetary regime doesn't prevent powerful U.S. dollar rallies.” In order to understand this seeming contradiction, investors must separate two forces that are often lumped together. “The dollar remains structurally indispensable to global financial system settlements even as its long-term role as a monetary reserve slowly erodes,” Wong said. “In other words, the dollar may be experiencing secular decline, but it can still have powerful cyclical periods of strength for many years.” And every big U.S. dollar rally creates economic and financial stress for the rest of the world. “A stronger dollar increases debt-servicing costs for foreign borrowers, tightens global liquidity, raises funding costs and often forces traders to unwind leveraged positions and carry trades,” he said. “At the same time, dollar strength encourages central banks to diversify reserves. Countries increasingly seek to reduce dependency on a financial system that can be influenced and coerced by U.S. policy objectives. China has expanded the use of alternative settlement systems such as CIPS and mBridge, while many nations are exploring regional trade arrangements and various reserve diversification strategies.” Wong believes that gold is becoming the reserve asset of a new, multipolar world. “The paradox is that the stronger the U.S. dollar becomes, the greater the incentive for countries to find alternatives to it,” he said. “The most likely outcome is not the replacement of the dollar with a single reserve currency but the gradual emergence of a more diversified or multipolar system. The U.S. dollar may remain dominant in reserves and funding while other currencies gain influence in trade, regional currencies become more important, and gold acts as a neutral reserve asset between the various competing blocs. Hence, reserve managers seem focused on diversifying rather than replacing. They still need dollars; they just want fewer of them.” “Gold occupies a unique position in this evolving framework as it is ‘outside money,’” Wong wrote. “Unlike sovereign currencies, it carries no political allegiance. Unlike government bonds, it has no counterparty risk. Unlike bank deposits, it cannot be frozen or sanctioned if held domestically.” “As geopolitical tensions rise and reserve diversification accelerates, central banks increasingly view gold as a strategic reserve asset,” he said. “Its role is gradually evolving from an inflation hedge to a monetary hedge, a reserve asset and potentially a form of monetary collateral.” Wong noted that before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the IMF calculated that gold reserves averaged 12% of total world reserves since 2000, according to IMF data. “Since the freezing or seizure of Russia’s FX reserves and growing concerns of global currency and sovereign bond debasement, gold reserves as a percentage of total world reserves have soared to a recent high of ~34%, before closing the quarter at 27%,” he said. “The long-term secular trend of gold returning as a strategic reserve asset remains intact.” Wong also explored the counterintuitive reasons why gold seems to sell off during financial and liquidity crises. “Investors often expect turmoil to boost gold prices automatically, but history suggests otherwise,” he said. “During periods of acute funding stress, market participants need dollars. To obtain those dollars, they frequently sell their most liquid assets. Gold, as one of the world's most liquid and desired reserve assets, often serves as a source of liquidity. This occurred during the 2008 financial crisis and the March 2020 pandemic shock, and could occur again during future dollar squeezes. This does not represent a failure of gold. It is gold performing its reserve function.” Wong pointed out that even as gold continues its secular ascent as a reserve asset, the yellow metal’s shorter-term price movements remain beholden to the U.S. dollar. “Over the long run, gold and the dollar can rise for very different reasons: gold reflecting growing demand for a neutral reserve asset and store of value, and the dollar reflecting its central role in the global funding system,” he said. “However, on a cyclical basis, gold still tends to exhibit a negative correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). As shown in Figure 3, gold's long-term trend remains firmly higher, but periods of dollar strength have frequently coincided with temporary corrections or consolidation phases in gold prices. This distinction between gold's secular monetary revaluation and its cyclical sensitivity to dollar liquidity conditions is critical for understanding short-term volatility within a longer-term bull market.” Wong cautioned that the U.S. dollar can remain strong even as long-term dollar dominance declines. “Likewise, gold could experience meaningful corrections while remaining in a secular bull market,” he said. “Periodic dollar rallies, tighter liquidity, commodity weakness and gold corrections drive the cyclical trend. The secular trend points toward reserve diversification, central bank gold purchases, alternative payment systems and a gradual decline in the dollar's share of global reserves.” And these two forces are not actually contradictory. “Each episode of dollar strength creates additional incentives for diversification, while each diversification effort reinforces gold's long-term monetary role,” Wong said. “Each episode may accelerate the transition toward a more diversified monetary system, one in which gold increasingly serves as the neutral reserve asset linking competing currency blocs.” Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-13/gold-becoming-reserve-asset-new-multipolar-world-sprotts-paul-wong

July 7, 2026 Has the worst of the selling pressure on gold and silver finally passed? Although the gold price has not yet managed to break through the first resistance level above $4,200, Ole Hansen, commodities strategist at Saxo Bank, sees clear signs that the months-long correction is coming to an end. In his view, the market environment is currently shifting from pure liquidation toward a sustainable bottoming-out process, during which precious metals are once again being selectively accumulated. U.S. Monetary Policy as the Key Driver for a Breakout The next major price movement depends largely on macroeconomic conditions. Although the market is still pricing in an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year, disappointing labor market data—with only 57,000 new jobs created in June—has already tempered the most aggressive forecasts. In addition, the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, recently signaled that inflation risks are subsiding. Speaking to Kitco News, Hansen consequently stated that he does not expect another interest rate hike this year. Falling energy prices and waning inflationary pressure are undermining the basis for a restrictive monetary policy. Once this realization takes hold in the market, a weaker U.S. dollar is likely to give the gold price a massive boost. Technical Correction Phase and Momentum Opportunities for Silver Despite the improvement in fundamentals, gold is still technically in a correction phase and remains 26 percent below its January high. While support below $4,000 has been successfully defended, investors have so far used rallies toward $4,200 to reduce their positions. For a genuine trend reversal, the precious metal must first break above the 200-day moving average at $4,485 as well as the key correction retracement level at $4,574. A similar picture is emerging for silver, which, after the recent selling wave halted in the mid-$50 range, staged a constructive rally above the $60 mark before being capped at $63.27. Silver combines gold’s macroeconomic sensitivity with an extremely tight fundamental environment characterized by multi-year supply deficits and rising industrial demand. Due to its smaller market size, the white metal remains highly attractive to momentum investors, but its heavy reliance on short-term capital flows means it still requires strong nerves in the face of sudden shifts in market sentiment. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/is-the-sell-off-over-gold-and-silver-may-be-on-the-verge-of-their-next-breakout

(Kitco News) - Although gold prices have been unable to break initial resistance above $4,200, one market strategist expects the worst of the selling pressure from the months-long correction may now be over. In his latest precious metals note, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said he believes the price action in the gold market is shifting from liquidation to consolidation and base-building. “The sector has moved from being aggressively bid to selectively accumulated, and the next move will likely depend on whether macro conditions continue to ease or once again turn hostile,” he said in his Monday note. Hansen added that gold continues to be driven by market expectations surrounding U.S. monetary policy. Although markets still expect the U.S. central bank to raise interest rates this year, aggressive forecasts have been pared back following last week’s disappointing employment data, which showed that only 57,000 jobs were created in June. At the same time, gold is also benefiting from optimistic comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who emphasized his commitment to price stability and returning inflation to the central bank's target. However, he also said inflation risks had eased in recent weeks since taking over leadership of the Federal Reserve. In a comment to Kitco News, Hansen said he does not expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year as inflation pressures continue to ease, in line with Warsh’s comments. “Forward inflation expectations have collapsed, so tightening when the reason for tightening is easing with energy prices slumping makes no sense. Once that becomes the general market view, the dollar will soften as a very elevated long gets squeezed while short-end bond yields will move back towards Fed Funds rates,” he said. However, until the Federal Reserve’s policy path becomes clearer, Hansen said gold still has a lot of ground to recover, with prices remaining 26% below January’s highs. “Support below USD 4,000 has held so far, but the rebound towards USD 4,200 last week was met with renewed selling, indicating that some investors are still using strength to reduce exposure. Such price action is typical after a deep correction and helps explain why building a durable market trough can take time,” he said. “On the charts, the 200-day moving average near USD 4,485 represents the first major hurdle. Above that, the 38.2% retracement of the roughly USD 1,650 January-to-June correction sits near USD 4,574. A break above these levels would further improve the technical picture. Until then, the recovery is better viewed as an attempt to build a base." Along with growing optimism toward gold, Hansen said he is also encouraged by the recent price action in silver, even though prices on Monday were capped at $63.27 an ounce. “ Silver ’s latest sell-off was arrested ahead of key support in the mid-USD 50s, with the subsequent rebound taking prices back above USD 60. The move is encouraging, but like gold, silver still has considerable work to do to repair the technical and psychological damage inflicted during the past few months. Silver combines gold ’s macro sensitivity with a tighter fundamental backdrop. Multi-year supply deficits and growing industrial demand provide structural support, but the market is much smaller and more flow-sensitive than gold. That makes silver particularly attractive to momentum-driven investors when conditions improve, while also exposing it to sharper liquidation when sentiment reverses,” he said. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-06/gold-price-may-have-found-its-floor-liquidation-gives-way-consolidation

Published: Jul 03, 2026 - 10:26 PM (Kitco News) – While tactical headwinds such as high yields, a strong dollar and the threat of Fed rate hikes persist, the structural tailwinds of Asian and central bank demand and the need for diversification amid high stock/bond correlation should drive gold prices as high as $5,500 per ounce by March of next year, according to the new Monthly Gold Monitor from State Street Global Advisors. In their review of tactical headwinds, State Street strategists led by Aakash Doshi said gold’s opportunity cost and U.S. dollar strength weighed on investor sentiment in June. “Spot bullion fell 11.7%, testing $4,000/oz support in fits and starts,” they wrote. “This compared to a 22.2% decrease in silver, 20.4% drop in bitcoin, and 9.2% decline in commodities flat price. On a risk-adjusted basis, gold outperformed silver, bitcoin, and spot commodities last month. US listed gold ETFs posted hefty monthly redemptions of ~$5.3B following relatively balanced fund flows during April and May.” The strategists noted that the U.S. OIS curve was pricing in around 1.5 Fed rate hikes this year compared to the two to three rate cuts expected as recently as February, which served to boost real yields across the curve while pushing the assets in U.S. money market funds to a record $7.9 trillion, with the U.S. dollar catching a strong bid. “During the March-June war period, gold underperformed against the greenback, versus the rest of G10 FX, by ~2.6 percentage points.” And while energy prices and rate expectations have moderated, the market still sees hikes on the horizon. “Though ICE Brent crude oil prices have fallen below our $80/bbl target on the potential for a sustained US-Iran ceasefire, rates traders still expect the Fed to tighten,” the strategists said. “Rebounding US labor market data and Fed Chair Warsh’s focus on a 2% inflation target have likely lifted the bar for cuts to be reintroduced in the short-term.” State Street sees these tactical headwinds more than offset by gold’s significant structural tailwinds. “Though the ride may be bumpier versus 2024-2025, we believe the gold bull cycle still has legs,” they wrote. “A hawkish Fed pivot shouldn’t change the structural post-Covid dynamic for gold.” First, the strategists point out that global debt loads rose to a record $353 trillion during the first half of 2026. “Critically, the government share of debt is fast approaching 1/3 of that figure, also an all-time high,” they warned. “An active fiscal and inflation impulse should continue to support demand for gold as a monetary hedge.” Gold’s diversification function is also becoming more important as equities and fixed income markets increasingly move in tandem. “Stock/bond correlations remain elevated versus the ~25 year regime from the late 1990s through 2021,” the strategists noted. “Even as correlations have eased somewhat in 2025-2026, we expect demand for liquid diversifiers will remain a key consideration for asset allocators.” And global demand for physical gold, particularly from Chinese retail investors and emerging market central banks, remains strong. “China retail imports have soared since the Iran conflict and local premiums have also risen, suggesting tight onshore supply/demand fundamentals.” Lastly, gold’s share of global managed fund and exchange-traded fund assets remains below 1%. “This is well shy of the 3-10% strategic target we recommend for most portfolios,” they said. “We project bullion prices can rally to $4,750-5,500/oz over the next 6-9 months (70% baseline) while bearish tactical headwinds have increased the odds, in our view, of the yellow metal hovering around $4,000-4,750/oz (25% scenario),” State Street said. “We see robust price support at $3,750-4,000/oz but view the odds of $5,500-6,250/oz (5% bull case) as less likely versus the January/February macro environment.” Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-03/state-streets-baseline-scenario-sees-gold-price-high-5500oz-q1-2027

Published: Jul 04, 2026 - 2:01 AM (Kitco News) – Even as U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar continue to limit gold’s upside, growing diversification demand, central bank buying and ETF inflows should support further price gains for the yellow metal by the end of 2026, according to HSBC. "Gold did not rally during the Middle East conflict and has largely moved in tandem with equities,” HSBC Global Chief Investment Officer Willem Sels and Global Head of Wealth Insights Lucia Ku wrote. “Our analysis indicates that US yields are the primary driver of gold prices. We believe gold may remain range-bound in the near term amid elevated real yields and a stronger USD. However, demand for portfolio diversification, central bank buying and steady ETF inflows should support gold prices over the medium term.” “We continue to view gold as an effective diversifier against broader portfolio risks." Sels and Ku said their analysis indicates that U.S. Treasury yields are currently acting as the primary driver of gold’s price action. “When yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset increases, putting pressure on gold prices,” they said. “Moreover, gold has been less effective as an equity hedge in 2026, having largely moved in tandem with equities.” HSBC believes gold will likely remain rangebound in the near term in the face of elevated real yields and a strong U.S. dollar. “However, demand for portfolio diversification, central bank purchases and steady ETF inflows continue to support our bullish view on gold and its role as a diversifier against broader portfolio risks,” they said. “We anticipate further upside for gold by year-end." On May 11, James Steel, Chief Precious Metals Analyst at HSBC, said that gold has performed exactly as it should throughout the Iran conflict . “The demand has been good out of China,” Steel said. “The Shanghai Gold Exchange premium – the difference between the domestic price in China and the global price – is around $20, indicating strong domestic demand in China, which is mostly on the institutional side. It's interesting; it's less on jewelry and coins and small bars, which we have seen traditionally, and more on the large bars, more for institutions, because we had some regulatory reform in both China and India. Now the top insurance companies in China are allowed to accumulate bullion, and asset managers in India are allowed to accumulate it as well.” “But in addition to that, we saw surprisingly strong buying in the latest data from the central bank, from the People's Bank of China, who bought 8.1 tonnes for the last month's data.” Steel was asked what he learned from gold’s peak around $5,400 per ounce in late January, and its subsequent decline amid the Middle East conflict. “Well, I think the run up was a little robust,” he said. “We were bringing in a lot of money that had not been in the market for quite some time, or had not traded gold at all. One could argue that the market had become overly long, particularly when you look at CFTC data and other things we have available now.” “There's been a lot of critics of the bullion market saying that the decline since the strikes on Iran and escalating oil prices, [claiming] that gold is not a safe haven, that it’s failed in some sense,” Steel said. “I would argue exactly the opposite, because as the oil went up and we got restoked inflationary fears, and bond yields rose, and the dollar rose, equities declined. In that atmosphere, ready cash was needed. And that's what gold provides you.” “We did see liquidation in the gold market, but mostly as a reaction to the financial market,” he added. “In a sense, gold was an insurance policy, and that insurance policy was being cashed in.” Steel was also questioned on his views of gold’s historical relationship with oil prices. “Well, that's interesting, because I'm old enough to remember when it was a positive relationship,” he replied. “We've done some work on this. In the 1970s, gold was positively correlated with oil: Oil ran up, and so did gold. In the 1980s, that was the same; oil fell and gold also fell.” “Now, that correlation seemed to break apart as we got into the 90s, as oil was a less significant part of the global economy,” he said. “That correlation is now only about 0.15, or even negative at times… It's negative at the moment.” Finally, Steel was asked whether he views gold as one of several alternative assets within investor portfolios, or whether he sees it as a standalone asset. “Well, I think you could argue that it is an alternative asset,” he said. “It’s certainly quite unique, in the sense that it's a hard asset and it's also highly liquid. It doesn't correlate to Apple or Nvidia, it tends not to, over the long run anyway. Things like Canadian farmland, for instance, that's also a hard asset, but you can't liquidate it quickly. And that's the beauty of gold. It's both a hard asset, and it's highly liquid, highly traded.” “But what you have touched on, and I think we will see it back again, is many asset managers who never before have included gold in their portfolio, are beginning to do that, because they're looking for alternatives.” And on April 2, Sels and Ku said that despite gold’s recent underperformance, the rise of cross-asset correlations makes the yellow metal more valuable than ever as a portfolio diversifier, and they remain bullish on gold’s long-term outlook . Sels and Ku reiterated their constructive outlook on gold over the next six months, and said the bank is maintaining its Overweight positioning. "Inflation concerns have also led to rate volatility and a repricing of monetary policy expectations,” they noted. “Policymakers are likely to maintain current interest rates for some time before easing later. We continue to seek quality yields from investment-grade credit and EM local currency bonds for income generation.” “However, as cross-asset correlations have increased, we use gold and alternative assets to enhance diversification,” Sels and Lu underlined. “Despite the recent pullback, we remain bullish on gold over the medium to long term due to its diversification benefits and safe-haven demand.” The analysts added that they still expect gold’s recent headwinds to be short-lived, as the underlying fundamentals remain supportive. “Gold continues to serve as a compelling portfolio diversifier amid geopolitical uncertainty and central bank buying,” they wrote. HSBC has held fast to their positive outlook for the yellow metal throughout the recent pullback. On March 30, analysts at HSBC Asset Management said gold is behaving more like a risk asset in 2026, selling off sharply amid heightened geopolitical tensions and a stronger dollar, but the de-dollarization trend still makes it a good long-term investment . "Moves in the gold price since the Iran conflict broke out have defied expectations,” the analysts wrote. “The conventional playbook assumed that mounting geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty would naturally boost the yellow metal, mirroring last year’s ‘Liberation Day’ episode and sustaining a spectacular two-year rally.” Instead, the yellow metal has done the opposite, they noted, losing 15% to date in March. “A stronger US dollar has certainly been a headwind, deterring non-US buyers, while a hawkish repricing of interest rates has increased the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset,” the analysts said. “Yet, gold withstood a similar surge in the greenback and rates throughout 2022, weakening this traditional thesis.” HSBC believes gold is actually behaving like a risk asset in 2026. “Ownership has shifted towards retail and other leveraged buyers, many of whom are forced to liquidate holdings in periods of market stress,” they noted. "There remains a decent long-term investment case for gold, particularly amid ongoing global de-dollarisation,” the analysts said. “However, the recent volatility offers a stark reminder: robust portfolio diversification demands a broad-based approach." Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-03/we-anticipate-further-upside-gold-year-end-hsbcs-sels-and-ku

Published: Jul 03, 2026 - 6:00 AM (Kitco News) - Gold's recent correction has understandably raised questions about whether the precious metal's historic bull market is beginning to lose momentum. Yet, while investors remain fixated on Federal Reserve policy, interest rates, and the U.S. dollar, they may be overlooking the gold market's most important long-term driver: central banks. Research from major institutions all points to the same conclusion: the structural shift toward gold among the world's reserve managers remains firmly intact. This past week, the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) published its annual central bank survey , which found that reserve managers remain overwhelmingly constructive on gold, with many expecting prices to trade between $5,000 and $6,000 an ounce over the next year. More importantly, the survey reinforced that gold's appeal extends far beyond short-term price appreciation. Central banks continue to view bullion as an essential reserve asset that provides diversification, liquidity, and protection against an increasingly fragmented geopolitical landscape. The OMFIF survey comes just two weeks after the World Gold Council published its annual Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey, which highlighted the same trend. A record 45% of central banks said they expect to increase their own gold holdings over the next 12 months, while nearly 90% believe total global official gold reserves will continue to rise. Gold prices may have experienced a sharp correction from their January highs, but many experts believe this bull market is far from over. Goldman Sachs expects sovereign demand to remain one of the primary pillars supporting the market, reinforcing its bullish outlook. In its latest report, the bank forecast that gold could approach $4,900 an ounce next year. Unlike ETF investors or speculative traders, central banks are not attempting to time market swings. Their purchases are driven by strategic reserve management, efforts to diversify away from the U.S. dollar, and the growing importance of holding politically neutral assets. As long as central banks continue adding to their reserves at historically elevated levels, they will remain an important source of demand in a market where new mine supply grows only gradually. Gold has always been influenced by interest rates, inflation, and currency movements, and those factors will continue to drive short-term volatility. But this cycle has introduced a new dynamic. For the first time in decades, the market's dominant buyers are institutions making strategic decisions measured in decades rather than quarters. That may ultimately prove to be the strongest argument that gold's secular bull market is far from over. source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-02/central-banks-are-still-betting-gold

Jul 2, 2026 4:17 PM EDT Gold investors were bracing for more sluggishness. Following months of pressure, investors expected the next big call on the shiny yellow metal to be much more defensive, especially as rate-cut hopes faded and the dollar regained some bite. For context, gold was recently trading near the low $4,000s, with spot prices at around $4,064 per ounce at the time of writing. Gold price rebounded amid weak jobs data, lower oil prices, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh ’s latest comments. Speaking in Portugal, according to Investopedia , Warsh said inflation risks were diminishing somewhat. While it was far from a clear signal of a rate cut, the comments gave gold a short-term lift and injected life back into the debasement trade. Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs isn’t treating the recent pullback as the end of the gold trade. The bank’s latest message is much more measured but adds to the bull case for higher gold prices. Goldman was focusing on a deeper source of demand that does not move like a short-term ETF trade. Though gold has lost momentum, Goldman says the bigger force behind the rally remains intact. Wall Street price targets for gold prices Goldman Sachs : $4,900/oz by end-2026. Goldman’s leans on sovereign demand and emerging-market central bank diversification . JPMorgan : $6,000/oz by Q4 2026. JPMorgan sees gold pushing higher as central bank demand and macro uncertainty remain supportive. UBS : $5,200/oz over the next 12 months. UBS says gold can rebound as markets rethink Fed policy, dollar pressure, and central bank buying. Morgan Stanley : $5,200/oz in H2 2026. Morgan Stanley says gold needs stronger ETF inflows to make that target realistic. Bank of America : $4,800/oz by Q4 2026. BofA trimmed its near-term outlook as investor demand weakened and Fed headwinds grew. Sources: Reuters, Kitco News, Business Insider, Investing, JPMorgan Global Research, and Morgan Stanley/Bank of America notes cited by Kitco. What Goldman Sachs said about gold’s next move Goldman Sachs just drew a clear line between gold’s pullback and its long-term thesis. Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, argued that gold’s sharp four-month decline doesn’t mean the bull case is wrapped up and that she still sees room for the metal to climb toward its $4,900/oz end-2026 forecast, according to Kitco News . Gold had been one of Wall Street ’s strongest momentum stories, stoked by inflation fears, central-bank buying, and geopolitical risk. The setup then took a major blow amid higher-rate expectations; a stronger dollar and softer ETF demand weighed on prices. Goldman’s point is that the primary structural buyer hasn’t disappeared. Dart acknowledged that a hawkish Fed has hurt the debasement trade and pressured ETF demand. But Goldman is still leaning on central-bank buying, especially emerging-market reserve diversification, anchoring its forecast. She wrote that “EM central bank diversification” remains the key driver, with the post-2022 freezing of Russia’s reserves influencing how some central banks think about gold. The World Gold Council data supports that argument. The 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey found that 89% of respondents expect global central bank gold reserves to rise over the next 12 months, while a record 45% expect their own institutions to increase their holdings. It’s important to note that in May, according to Yahoo Finance , Goldman revised their central-bank gold-demand model after finding official trade data was missing some sovereign buying. Consequently, its 12-month purchase forecast jumped to nearly 50 tonnes per month from 29 tonnes per month, and the bank now sees roughly 60 tonnes per month through 2026. Goldman said UK trade data understated London vault outflows since August 2025, while geopolitical uncertainty and diversification demand kept underlying interest strong. The bank had slashed its $5,400/oz year-end 2026 target by $500 to $4,900 in June, citing the reality of a hawkish Fed. What has to happen for gold to reach $4,900 For gold to reach Goldman’s $4,900/oz target, the market needs a lot more than sovereign buying. It needs pressure from rates, the dollar, and investor flows to ease simultaneously. The first gate is U.S. labor data. Reuters reported June payrolls rose just 57,000, well below the 110,000 economists expected, while May was revised down to 129,000 from 172,000. That sort of slowdown could help gold if it reduces market confidence that the Fed has to stay hawkish. The second aspect to consider is policy language. According to MoneyControl , Fed Chair Kevin Warsh helped gold rebound by saying inflation risks had eased, but he also reaffirmed the Fed’s 2% target and warned against assuming looser policy. That means gold needs cooler inflation and softer jobs data to become a trend rather than a one-day reaction. The third point to consider is the return of private money. The World Gold Council said global gold ETF flows slowed to a “trickle” in May, with ETF assets down 2% month over month to $604 billion. Without stronger ETF demand, gold may recover, but the move toward $4,900 becomes harder to sustain. source： https://www.thestreet.com/investing/goldman-sachs-delivers-honest-verdict-on-golds-selloff

Published: Jun 20, 2026 - 1:08 AM (Kitco News) - Gold investors shouldn't assume that a more inflation-focused Federal Reserve will derail the precious metal's long-term bull market, according to Axel Merk, founder and CEO of Merk Investments. While newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has signaled a more hawkish approach to monetary policy, Merk said that any near-term headwinds for gold could ultimately strengthen the market's longer-term foundations by reducing policy-driven uncertainty and shifting investor attention back to America's deteriorating fiscal position. In his first Federal Reserve press conference on Wednesday, Warsh made fighting inflation a central pillar of his leadership, emphasizing the importance of price stability. The market interpreted his comments as hawkish, with traders pushing expectations for future rate increases higher. Yet Merk said that investors should not automatically view a hawkish Fed as bearish for gold. "Everything else equal, Kevin Warsh is a headwind to the price of gold," Merk said. "But I actually think it's going to reduce volatility, which should be seen as a positive." According to Merk, one of Warsh's most important reforms is his effort to reduce the Fed's reliance on forward guidance and allow financial markets to play a greater role in signaling economic conditions. He said years of excessive communication and policy signaling have distorted markets and amplified volatility. "The Fed has always done what they had to do, but often with huge delays and much more damage," he said. "Just avoiding the big mistakes reduces volatility." Along with creating unnecessary market volatility, Merk also pointed out that the Federal Reserve’s economic projections and dot plot have never been accurate forecasting tools. He added that, for gold investors, less monetary policy uncertainty could have an unexpected benefit. Instead of obsessing over every Fed statement, dot plot projection, or interest-rate forecast, investors may begin focusing on structural issues that remain firmly supportive of gold, particularly the United States' growing debt burden. "For the gold bugs, for better or worse, we've got unsustainable deficits," Merk said. "The market should be focused more on the fiscal side." The comments come as many analysts continue to debate whether higher interest rates and elevated bond yields represent a significant obstacle for gold prices. Conventional wisdom suggests that rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as gold. However, Merk challenged the idea that opportunity costs should dictate an investor's decision to own precious metals. He noted that gold serves multiple functions within a portfolio, including preserving purchasing power during periods of monetary instability and fiscal deterioration. "I own gold for a variety of reasons," he said. "It's about preservation of purchasing power." Merk added that even if Warsh succeeds in restoring credibility to monetary policy and making progress against inflation, the process will take years. He pointed out that former Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volcker, widely credited with breaking the back of inflation in the early 1980s, did not immediately return inflation to desired levels. "Keep in mind, Paul Volcker didn't get inflation down to two percent," Merk said, noting that meaningful progress only emerged late in Volcker's tenure and into the early Greenspan years. Beyond Fed policy, Merk noted that some of the recent pressure on gold has stemmed from geopolitical developments, particularly the market's reaction to tensions involving Iran and their impact on oil prices, inflation expectations, and real interest rates. However, he expects those relationships to normalize over time. "My guess is that correlation is going to break down," he said, referring to the recent link between gold and oil prices. "I think that's going to be a big positive for gold." Ultimately, Merk said investors should avoid reducing the case for investing in gold to a simple debate over interest rates. He explained that a more disciplined and inflation-focused Federal Reserve may remove one source of uncertainty from the market, but it does little to address the longer-term challenges posed by persistent budget deficits, rising government debt, and ongoing geopolitical risks. Those factors, he argued, remain powerful reasons for investors to maintain exposure to gold regardless of the Fed's policy path. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-19/golds-bull-market-remains-intact-even-hawkish-fed-says-axel-merk