[Bearish Precious Metals] US Treasuries and the US dollar stayed high, with opportunity cost pressure still present. Currently, US Treasury yields remained overall in a high range, with the 10-year yield trading around 4.4%-4.5%, and real interest rates staying high continued to raise the holding cost of precious metals. Meanwhile, the US dollar index was still at relatively strong levels, weighing on precious metals passively, forming a dual pressure pattern of "rising yields + stronger dollar," capping short-term upside room. Institutional capital continued to flow out, with the trend of ETF reduction not yet reversed. Global gold ETFs sustained a net outflow trend, with holdings of the leading SPDR Gold ETF continuing to pull back, and onshore gold ETFs in China also facing persistent redemption pressure. The absence of incremental institutional buying resulted in a lack of rebound momentum in futures, with each rally facing concentrated selling from previously trapped longs taking profits, and the trend-like rally lacking capital support. Tighter trading rules combined with a consumption off-season leave short-term support weak. Starting July 2, the SHFE raised the trading margin requirement for SHFE gold futures to 16% and widened the daily price limit to 14%. In the short term, high-leverage speculative funds reduced leverage and exited, leading to a marginal contraction in market liquidity. At the same time, the current June–August period is the traditional off-season for global gold jewelry consumption, and during price declines, insufficient buying interest is prone to amplifying fluctuations. [Bullish Precious Metals] Waller confirmed cooling inflation, with tightening expectations marginally easing. In a public speech in Sintra on Wednesday evening, Waller explicitly stated that “US inflation upside risks have eased somewhat over the past four weeks.” This comment directly eased market concerns about persistent inflation stickiness, and precious metals prices rose during the speech. Overall market rate hike expectations cooled, providing fundamental support for valuation recovery in precious metals and serving as the core bullish driver in the short term. US June ADP employment missed expectations, sending signals of a cooling labor market. US private-sector employment rose by 98,000 in June according to ADP, below the market expectation of 118,000, the smallest increase since March, with the previous month revised down to 122,000. The data showed that job seekers’ search periods are lengthening and the pace of job creation is slowing. The cooling labor market will gradually feed into wage growth and core services inflation, weakening the US Fed’s core rationale for maintaining tight policy and raising rates. The US June ISM Manufacturing PMI overall fell short of market expectations. The data overall showed a combination of “slower expansion + rapid cost cooling.” The Prices Paid index for manufacturing dropped sharply by 9.1 points to 73, the largest monthly decline since July 2022, with the pace of raw material cost increases slowing significantly. Inflationary pressures on industrial products have rapidly released, reinforcing the certainty of the inflation decline and creating room for the US Fed to pivot policy. [Macro Summary] Currently, the June ADP and PMI data fell short of expectations, releasing signals of cooling employment and inflation. Coupled with Warsh confirming on Wednesday evening that inflation has moderated, market expectations for US Fed rate hikes have shown a marginal pullback. This week's remaining key data window is the June non-farm payrolls report and the weekly initial jobless claims data. The results will directly verify the sustainability of the cooling trend and determine the extent of correction in rate hike expectations.

In May, China's silver concentrate imports fell 15.8% MoM, with Peru remaining the top supplier. Refined silver exports dropped 11% MoM, while imports plunged 69% as the price premium narrowed. Trade windows are gradually normalizing toward June.

2026-06-10 15:25PM UTC While markets have been focused on the recent sharp decline in gold prices, the broader precious metals sector has also experienced significant selling pressure, with platinum-group metals suffering some of the steepest losses, according to a report from Bank of America. Both platinum and palladium recently fell to their lowest levels of the year amid continued pressure from the global economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions. Global economic weakness and Middle East tensions weigh on platinum-group metals Commodity analysts at the bank said the rally in platinum-group metals lost momentum since late January, largely due to gold’s price action and persistent economic headwinds linked to the conflict in the Middle East, which continue to weigh on industrial metals demand. Despite the recent weakness, the bank maintained its positive long-term outlook for the sector, noting that it remains constructive on gold heading into the fourth quarter. A renewed gold rally could attract investors back into platinum-group metals and help support prices. Spot platinum fell to around $1,711 per ounce, down more than 2% during the session, while palladium traded near $1,203 per ounce, up roughly 0.5%. Since the sharp selloff on Friday, platinum has lost more than 9% of its value, while palladium has fallen over 6%. Higher price targets despite weak industrial and jewelry demand Despite current pressures, Bank of America still expects platinum to average around $3,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026 through the first half of 2027. Palladium is expected to average around $2,200 per ounce during the final three months of the year. Platinum-group metals delivered strong gains during 2025 as global trade tensions and threats of tariffs on precious metals created significant disruptions in physical market liquidity. However, analysts noted that most of those concerns eased after tariff threats failed to translate into broad implementation. According to the report, the absence of tariffs resulted in more than 200,000 ounces of platinum leaving NYMEX warehouses, roughly half of the inflows recorded during the second half of 2025. Palladium, meanwhile, saw outflows in late January before flows reversed after the US Department of Commerce imposed final anti-dumping duties of 133% and countervailing duties of 109% on Russian palladium. Structural shifts in demand The bank also highlighted structural changes in demand for platinum-group metals. Platinum is expected to record a modest supply deficit this year, while palladium is forecast to remain in a slight surplus. Analysts pointed to China’s accelerating transition toward electric vehicles as a major source of market volatility, given the reduced demand for internal combustion engine vehicles that rely heavily on platinum-group metals in catalytic converters. Electric vehicles are expected to account for roughly 40% of China’s light-vehicle production this year, surpassing conventional combustion-engine vehicles for the first time. Traditional vehicles are projected to represent 36% of production, while hybrids account for 24%. Production of internal combustion vehicles in China has already fallen to approximately 14 million units in 2025, down from 21 million in 2020. By contrast, the transition to electric vehicles remains slower in Europe and the United States, particularly after Washington scaled back some of its earlier electrification initiatives. Weak jewelry demand in China Demand for platinum jewelry has also slowed, especially in China, where elevated inventories accumulated during the manufacturing boom of mid-2025 continue to pressure the market. Although some of those inventories have already been recycled, retailers still hold large stockpiles while consumer demand remains weak, raising the risk of a significant contraction in Chinese jewelry manufacturing volumes this year. Energy costs threaten South African production Despite uncertainty surrounding global demand, Bank of America believes supply-side risks could become increasingly important. The bank noted that ongoing Middle East tensions, higher energy prices, and inflationary pressures could negatively affect production, particularly in South Africa, one of the world's largest producers of platinum-group metals. South Africa relies heavily on imported oil, has limited domestic production capacity, and faces ongoing refining constraints, leaving its mining sector highly exposed to rising fuel costs. Diesel remains widely used across mining operations, transportation networks, and backup power generation, especially given the country's persistent electricity shortages. Diesel prices have surged since the conflict began, while state utility Eskom raised electricity tariffs by 8.76% beginning in April 2026, significantly increasing mining costs. In this context, Sibanye-Stillwater reported a 13% year-over-year increase in unit operating costs during the first quarter, citing persistent inflationary pressures, including higher labor and energy expenses. In trading on Wednesday, spot palladium rose 1.5% to $1,249 per ounce as of 16:14 GMT. Source： https://www.economies.com/commodities/palladium-news/palladium-attempts-to-recover-losses-as-bank-of-america-maintains-a-bullish-outlook-49044

June 8, 2026 Increased mine production, rising recycling, but declining overall demand—at first glance, not a typical environment for new price records. Nevertheless, the experts at Metals Focus forecast an average gold price of $4,920 per ounce for 2026, representing a 43 percent increase from the previous year. This apparent contradiction stems from a profound structural shift in the gold market that has far-reaching implications for the industry. Bullion and coins overtake gold jewelry for the first time The most significant change is taking place on the demand side: In 2026, physical investments in bullion and coins are expected to replace gold jewelry as the largest source of demand for the first time. This trend was already emerging in 2025, when physical investment demand climbed 16 percent to a twelve-year high—driven primarily by growth in China (up 28 percent) and India (up 17 percent). At the same time, global jewelry production plummeted by 19 percent to a five-year low of 1,646 tons. For 2026, Metals Focus anticipates a further decline of 11 percent. The historically high price level is forcing consumers and manufacturers to opt for lighter pieces, lower karat grades, or more affordable alternatives such as gold-filled materials. Consequently, gold is not disappearing from demand but is shifting its primary function from a consumer good to a pure investment product. Unlike jewelry purchases, this investment demand is far less price-sensitive and is primarily driven by motives such as asset protection, diversification, and hedging against currency risks and uncertainties. Lower overall demand—but a higher gold price Although overall demand is expected to decline in 2026 due in part to a slowdown in the jewelry sector, the high quality of buyers supports the projected price surge. Simply looking at total tonnage falls short in the current environment. As early as 2025, gold-backed exchange-traded products (ETFs) recorded their highest annual inflows since 2020, at 803 tons. The driving forces behind this were tariffs, growing U.S. government debt, doubts about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy independence, and geopolitical tensions. These factors will persist in 2026 and will be exacerbated by high stock market valuations and uncertainties regarding the long-term trajectory of the U.S. dollar. The precious metal is thus assuming an increasingly strategic role in investment portfolios. Central banks are buying less—but still at unusually high levels This strategic importance is also reflected in the behavior of central banks. Although net purchases fell by 22 percent to 848 tons in 2025, after having exceeded the 1,000-ton mark for three consecutive years, geographically broad-based demand remains well above pre-2022 levels. Sales were limited to a few countries and served primarily to rebalance portfolios following the recent gold rally. Despite headwinds such as the ongoing energy crisis, Metals Focus expects historically high net purchases in 2026 as well. While the pace of buying is slowing, the trend toward greater diversification of official reserves remains intact. Gold mines are producing more—but supply is slow to respond On the supply side, global mine production reached a new record of 3,817 tons (up 2 percent) in 2025. Growth was driven by new mines, expansions, and higher contributions from small-scale mining. A further increase of 2.4 percent to 3,907 tons is forecast for 2026, with all regions except Oceania and Europe expected to grow. Given the enormous price surge, this supply growth is nevertheless moderate and underscores that even strong price signals in the mining industry do not immediately lead to massive jumps in production. Compounding the issue is the fact that producers are grappling with significant cost increases: Global all-in sustaining costs (AISC) rose by 12 percent to $1,552 per ounce in 2025 due to inflation and taxes. For junior companies, this means that while a higher gold price improves the profitability of projects, factors such as grade, location, and infrastructure are increasingly decisive for success in light of cost trends. Why even record prices are barely triggering a recycling wave The supply of recycled gold is also responding sluggishly. In 2025, the volume rose by only 2.8 percent to 1,404 tons—a 13-year high that is, however, subdued relative to price trends. A 5.1 percent increase is forecast for 2026. This apparent contradiction can be explained by owners’ strong desire for security: precisely because of prevailing uncertainties, scrap gold is being sold less frequently. Paradoxically, the very factor driving prices is simultaneously limiting the additional supply that would normally cool the market. The Iran War Delays the Next Uptrend Short-term volatility remains a factor, however. Following new record highs at the start of 2026, a previously overbought market combined with shifting U.S. interest rate expectations led to a correction. The war in Iran is further fueling inflation, which limits the scope for interest rate cuts in the U.S. and drives up bond yields. In the short term, this is a headwind for gold, although geopolitical conflicts usually support the metal. Metals Focus, however, expects the rally to return once the situation calms down. The underlying premise: Policymakers are likely to tolerate slightly higher inflation rather than jeopardize economic growth through overly restrictive monetary policy. Conclusion: In 2026, it’s no longer just volume that counts in the gold market The market environment for 2026 is more complex than a purely quantitative analysis of supply and demand would suggest. The buyer structure is changing, strategic players are acting less price-sensitive, and structural drivers such as global debt and geopolitical risks remain. At the same time, supply from mines and recycling is growing only slowly. What is decisive, therefore, is not so much the absolute tonnage of total demand, but rather the fact that gold is undergoing a permanent shift from a consumer good to a strategic investment and reserve asset. The projected average price of $4,920 thus does not reflect mere exaggeration, but rather is an expression of a new, more resilient market structure. Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-in-2026-new-market-structure-paves-the-way-for-a-rise-to-usd4-920

[Off-Season Characteristics Becoming Increasingly Prominent, Die-Casting Zinc Alloy Operating Rate Declines] In terms of downstream demand, zipper order demand in China has been mediocre recently, while demand for luggage and apparel zippers is weak. End-use demand for jewelry and hardware has also slowed down. Regarding export orders, some orders for hardware products exported to the Middle East have been continuously decreasing, but orders shipped to Southeast Asia have been generally normal...

Against the backdrop of accelerating global energy transition and digital economy development, silver—a strategic metal possessing both industrial and financial attributes—is witnessing profound transformation across its industry chain. On one hand, emerging sectors such as PV, NEV, and 5G communications are driving continuously climbing demand for silver, propelling the industry toward higher value-added and greener upgrades; on the other hand, resource constraints, technological barriers, and market fluctuations are imposing higher demands on industry chain resilience, urgently requiring innovation-driven coordinated development across the entire chain. Dual Drivers of Policy and Market Under China's "dual carbon" goals and the global ESG investment wave, the silver industry faces pressing needs for green production, circular utilization, and low-carbon technologies. The NDRC's "14th Five-Year Plan for Circular Economy Development" explicitly calls for strengthening the circular utilization of precious metal resources, while international silver price fluctuations and geopolitical risks are compelling enterprises to enhance supply chain autonomy and controllability. Against this backdrop, the Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference has emerged, aiming to build a collaborative platform integrating government, industry, academia, research, and end-use applications, to address industry pain points, and to lead the industry toward high-end, intelligent, and internationalized advancement. Innovation Needs and Industry Pain Points Technological Breakthroughs: Silver purification processes, nano-silver material applications, and scrap recycling technologies urgently need breakthroughs to meet the demand for high-purity, low-cost silver in emerging fields such as PV silver paste and flexible electronics. Industry Chain Coordination: Information barriers exist across mining, smelting and processing, and end-use applications segments, requiring digital tools to achieve optimized resource allocation and risk sharing. Green Transformation: Traditional smelting processes are energy-intensive and highly polluting, necessitating the promotion of clean production technologies and circular economy models in response to global carbon neutrality commitments. Market Expansion: Silver's application potential in frontier fields such as hydrogen energy and quantum computing has yet to be fully explored, requiring strengthened cross-industry collaboration and standard-setting. Conference Objectives and Value Themed "Silver Chain Innovation · Intelligent Creation for the Future," this conference brings together global silver industry chain leaders, research institutions, financial institutions, and policymakers for in-depth dialogue around three core topics: technological R&D, supply chain optimization, and market expansion. Through releasing industry white papers, establishing innovation alliances, and signing major projects, the conference aims to drive the silver industry's transformation from "resource dependence" to "technology leadership," providing critical material support for the global energy revolution and digital economy. IKOI S.p.A will attend this grand event to discuss industry development trends with industry peers and jointly propel the silver industry to new heights. Click to register now. Join us to witness and participate in this extraordinary and far-reaching industry event, and together create a brilliant new chapter! IKOI, established in 1977, is a global leader in pyrometallurgical processes for precious metal refineries, mints, and jewelry markets. Currently, it has 3 major product lines: COMPACT integrated fully automatic gold and silver ingot casting systems, FCC FLAMELESS CASTING CHAMBER® fully automatic delivery bar systems, and the acid-free separation technology ALS system that physically separates gold and silver. IKOI's vision is to create safe, efficient, and green precious metal processing methods. IKOI's mission is to bring innovative and sustainable technologies to the precious metal industry. Contact Information Ni Yong 187 0185 9684 Long press to scan the QR code to register now 2026 SMM (7th) Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference

The investor relations activity record of Yunnan Copper for May 26–27, 2026 shows: 1 What is the company's planned copper concentrate production from captive mines this year, and what is the approximate cost level of the mining enterprises? According to the company's 2026 financial budget and production plan, full-year self-produced copper concentrates are expected to contain 69,800 mt of copper metal content. The company's current mining enterprises mainly include Diqing Nonferrous, Liangshan Mining, Yuxi Mining, and Diqing Mining. Due to differences in resource endowment and the life cycle stage of each mine, cost levels vary, with Diqing Nonferrous, Liangshan Mining, and Yuxi Mining having relatively lower costs. Meanwhile, the company strives to maintain overall cost stability through measures such as lean operations and increasing mining volumes. 2 What is the progress of the Hongnipo copper mine construction project of Liangshan Mining? The Hongnipo copper mine is currently under construction, with cumulative verified resource reserves of 16.06 million mt of ore, an average copper grade of 1.42%, and copper metal content of 592,900 mt. The project is progressing in an orderly manner as planned and is expected to be completed and ready for commissioning in 2026. 3 Will the mine resources under the company's major shareholder be injected into the publicly listed firm? Asset injection involves complex systematic work that requires comprehensive consideration of development strategy, asset conditions, regulatory requirements, and shareholder interests. The company will continue to focus on and strive to enhance the quality of the publicly listed firm, and if there are any new relevant arrangements, it will strictly follow prescribed decision-making and disclosure procedures. 4 Has the company set a target for resource self-sufficiency rate? The company regards improving resource self-sufficiency rate as an important long-term strategic task, relying primarily on three paths: commissioning of projects under construction, tapping potential of existing mines, and external resource acquisitions. Regarding projects under construction, the company successfully completed the acquisition of 40% equity in Liangshan Mining in December 2025, and the Hongnipo project is expected to be completed and ready for commissioning in 2026. Regarding tapping potential of existing mines, the company leverages its major mines to continuously intensify deep and peripheral exploration efforts, steadily advancing resource succession and reserve additions. Regarding external resource acquisitions, while managing existing mines and smelters well, the company actively monitors quality mineral resource projects and prudently conducts field trips and evaluations based on strategic positioning and market demand. 5 What proportion can the company's copper smelting TC long-term contracts approximately reach? The company follows the principles of marketization and maximization of comprehensive benefits in externally purchasing raw materials. As one of the larger copper concentrate purchasers in China, the company has long maintained good, stable, long-term cooperative relationships with major suppliers, and actively negotiates with copper concentrate suppliers to stabilize long-term contract supply and ensure orderly production. 6 What were the company's sulphuric acid selling price and production in Q1 2026? According to the company's 2026 production plan, planned annual sulphuric acid production is 5.76 million mt. In Q1 2026, sulphuric acid production progressed in an orderly manner as planned. Price side, as a by-product of copper smelting, sulphuric acid selling prices are influenced by multiple factors including regional market supply and demand, transportation conditions, and industry prosperity. Since the beginning of this year, driven by robust downstream demand and tight supply in some producing areas, sulphuric acid selling prices have stayed high. The company seized market opportunities, reasonably arranged production and sales, and made positive contributions to operating performance. Meanwhile, the company will continue to monitor price changes and dynamically optimize production and sales pace. 7 Does the company have further cost reduction plans? The company's mining and smelting enterprises continuously pursue lean cost reduction to build low-cost competitive advantages. For example, the company is comprehensively advancing the "Three-Year Cost Reduction 3.0" initiative, continuously promoting cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and lowering unit production costs through technological upgrades, process optimization, and improved management efficiency. 8 What major capital expenditures are expected in the future? The company's future major capital expenditures will primarily focus on the following strategic directions: first, resource acquisition—continuously strengthening exploration and acquisition of quality copper mineral resources in and outside China to enhance resource security capabilities; second, intelligent manufacturing—advancing automation, digitalization, and intelligent upgrades of mines and smelting plants to improve production efficiency and safety levels; third, green and low-carbon development—increasing investment in environmental protection, energy conservation, and other areas to promote sustainable development. Performance side: Yunnan Copper's Q1 2026 report disclosed on April 24 showed that the company achieved total operating revenue of 52.959 billion yuan, up 49.62% YoY; net profit attributable to the parent was 675 million yuan, up 7.93% YoY. Regarding the reasons for the increase in operating revenue, Yunnan Copper stated that it was mainly due to higher product prices compared to the same period last year and increased sales volumes compared to the same period last year. Yunnan Copper's 2025 annual report showed that in 2025, the company firmly established market entity awareness, strengthened its lean operations system, and solidly carried out production organization, cost control, indicator optimization, marketing value creation, and other work, with main product production reaching record highs and key technical and economic indicators continuously optimized. Full-year production included copper cathode of 1.6411 million mt, gold of 26.04 mt, silver of 735.38 mt, and sulphuric acid of 6.189 million mt, with copper cathode, gold, and silver production all reaching record highs. Full-year operating revenue reached 79.542 billion yuan and net profit attributable to the parent was 1.301 billion yuan, with operating efficiency steadily improving. Cost and technical indicators were continuously optimized, with mine concentrate copper content and smelting copper cathode unit full cost outperforming annual cost reduction targets. Key technical indicators for smelting and mining remained stable with improvement. In 2025, the copper smelting total recovery rate exceeded the target by 0.07 percentage points, and slag flotation tailings copper content was optimized by 0.01 percentage points versus the target, both reaching industry-leading levels. Yunnan Copper announced that in 2025, the company's concentrate copper content production, on a consolidated statement basis, was 69,400 mt, up 26.64% YoY from 2024, mainly because the company issued shares to acquire 40% equity in Liangshan Mining held by Yunnan Copper Group during 2025, and Liangshan Mining was included in the consolidated statements as of December 31, 2025, with its full-year production included in the statistics. Regarding the company's main businesses, Yunnan Copper introduced in its 2025 annual report: The company's main businesses cover copper exploration, mining and beneficiation, smelting, extraction of precious metals and rare scattered metals, sulphur chemicals, and trading. It is an important copper, gold, silver, and sulphur chemical production site in China. The company has established a relatively complete industry chain in copper and related nonferrous metals and is a copper enterprise with deep industry heritage. Main products include copper cathode, gold, silver, industrial sulphuric acid, and rare and scattered metal products such as molybdenum, platinum, palladium, selenium, and tellurium. The company's main products are all produced according to international standardization organization standards, operating effectively under the international ISO9001 quality management system to ensure strict quality control. The company's main product, copper cathode, is widely used in electrical, light industry, machinery manufacturing, construction, national defense, and other fields; gold and silver are used in finance, jewelry, electronic materials, etc.; industrial sulphuric acid is used as raw material for chemical products and in other sectors of the national economy. The company's "Tiefeng" brand copper cathode is registered on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the London Metal Exchange; "Tiefeng" brand gold is registered on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange; "Tiefeng" brand silver is registered on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the London Bullion Market Association. Regarding the company's future development outlook, Yunnan Copper introduced in its 2025 annual report: Yunnan Copper adheres to the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, fully implements the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and its successive plenary sessions, and upholds and strengthens the Party's overall leadership. The company actively serves major national strategies, adheres to promoting high-quality development as the theme, fully, accurately, and comprehensively implements the new development philosophy, continuously enhances core functions and improves core competitiveness, and better plays its role in scientific and technological innovation, industrial control, and security support in building a modern industrial system and constructing a new development pattern. The company emphasizes "two guarantees" (important mineral resource guarantee and important metal material guarantee), "two innovations" (scientific and technological innovation and management innovation), "two constructions" (strengthening Party building, especially cadre team building), and "three unwavering commitments" (unwavering in accelerating structural adjustment, unwavering in deepening enterprise reform, and unwavering in international operations and increasing "going global" efforts). The company focuses on "digital-intelligent transformation, expanding resources, refining mines, optimizing smelting, solidifying recycled (copper), and detailing rare scattered (metals)," accelerating the construction of a world-class excellent copper company, and continuously opening new prospects for Yunnan Copper's high-quality development. Guosen Securities' research report commenting on Yunnan Copper on April 11 showed: Quality asset consolidation. Production side, the company's copper ore production was close to 70,000 mt, with major mines maintaining stable production. Copper smelting side, after Southwest Copper reached full production, the company's 2025 copper cathode production was 1.64 million mt, up 440,000 mt or 36% YoY. During the reporting period, the company purchased 40% equity in Liangshan Mining through share issuance to its major shareholder, achieving consolidation. Liangshan Mining is a quality asset, with its mines featuring open-pit mining, abundant reserves, higher grade than the publicly listed firm's existing copper mines, and lower costs than the publicly listed firm's existing copper mines. In H2 2025, profitability of major subsidiaries generally declined. Although copper, gold, and silver prices rose significantly in H2 2025, the company's mining operations saw profit decline QoQ. Smelting operations also declined significantly in H2 2025, which was related to the sharp drop in copper concentrate TCs. As sulphuric acid prices are expected to stay high, the company's smelting business profitability is expected to improve. Gross profit by product side, the company produces over 6 million mt of sulphuric acid annually. Benefiting from sulphuric acid price increases, sulphuric acid business gross profit in 2025 was 2.03 billion yuan, up 1.5 billion yuan YoY, representing a performance highlight. Since early 2026, sulphuric acid prices have continued to rise, and this is expected to further boost earnings. Leveraging the copper industry's high-prosperity cycle in recent years, the company's asset quality has improved, and during the reporting period it achieved consolidation of Liangshan Mining, a quality asset. As the sole copper publicly listed platform under Chalco Group, injection of other quality assets from the major shareholder is anticipated. Although the copper smelting business is under pressure in the short term, the government has issued policies to strictly control new copper smelting capacity, and the company benefits from global copper smelting capacity rationalization, with a favorable long-term industry landscape. Maintain "Outperform" rating.

Record industrial demand, supply deficits, and new U.S. policy changes now place silver at the center of modern manufacturing.

May 22, 2026 7:07 AM EDT Key Points Central banks sold gold to defend currencies amid 2026 US-Israel-Iran conflict and energy crisis. Jeffrey Currie predicts gold could fall to $3,750 before rallying as structural buyers return. Long-term, AI-driven demand and underinvestment may push gold prices toward $10,000 per ounce. Gold has always been the asset investors run to when they stop believing in everything else. It is the trade that pays off when central banks lose credibility, when currencies wobble, when geopolitics get loud, and when the rest of the stock market finally cracks. For most of the past three years, that playbook worked beautifully. Sovereign buyers from Beijing to Warsaw to Ankara stacked bullion at a pace not seen in half a century. Retail piled in behind them. The metal blew through one all-time high after another, and the bears went quiet. Then 2026 happened. A US-Israeli war on Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz, sent energy prices vertical, and forced some of the same central banks that drove the rally to start unloading their gold to defend collapsing currencies. The yellow metal has now given back almost all of its year-to-date gains, hovering near $4,534 an ounce on May 19, according to Fortune . Now one of Wall Street ’s most respected commodity voices is telling clients the pain is far from over. And the eventual payoff, if his call lands, will dwarf anything the gold market has ever produced. Why this gold selloff is just getting started The bear in question is Jeffrey Currie, the former global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs ( GS ), who spent 27 years at the firm before leaving in 2023 and is now chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle Group ( CG ), according to Carlyle . He is best known for calling the 2000s commodity supercycle and predicting oil’s run past $100 a barrel. In a recent thread on X , the former Twitter, Currie wrote that he has been “short gold” since March despite describing himself as a “gold perma bull”. His thesis is mechanical, not philosophical. The Iran conflict and the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz have driven energy import costs higher and pressured emerging-market currencies. To defend those currencies and pay for fuel, some of the world’s most prolific gold buyers have flipped into sellers. Turkey is the cleanest example. Its central bank sold or swapped roughly 79 tons of gold in the first quarter alone, with “the largest sales from Turkey (60 tonnes) and Russia (16 tonnes) [offsetting] purchases elsewhere,” according to the World Gold Council . “When the marginal central bank flips from structural buyer to forced seller to pay for energy, gold’s biggest bid disappears,” Currie wrote on X . That dynamic, in his view, points to a deeper retracement. He sees gold sliding all the way toward $4,000, with a possible overshoot into the $3,750 range, before sovereign buyers, particularly China, step back in and restart the rally. The bigger thesis behind the $10,000 gold target Currie’s gold call sits inside a much bigger argument about how a decade of capital flows have left commodity markets dangerously under-invested. After running the numbers against his framework myself, the imbalance is more extreme than most equity investors realize. The argument starts with where the money has gone. The Magnificent Seven plus Oracle ( ORCL ) are projected to spend roughly $820 billion on artificial intelligence capital expenditure in 2026 alone, which Currie called “the largest physical commodity bid ever assembled inside eight income statements,” according to Benzinga . Meanwhile, the suppliers cannot keep up. The numbers Currie laid out paint a clear picture: Information Technology and Communication Services make up roughly 43% of the S&P 500 , while Energy and Materials together account for about 6%. Upstream oil and gas investment is down 35% from its 2015 peak. The world’s top 20 mining companies are spending 40% less than during the 2012 peak cycle, per Currie’s analysis. Central banks bought a net 244 tonnes of gold in Q1 2026, up 3% year-on-year. Source: Currie’s analysis via Benzinga Currie calls this transition the move from “HAGO” (Hard Assets, Global Operations) into “ HALO ” (Hard Assets, Local Operations), where physical commodities are repriced upward as supply struggles to meet AI -driven demand. “The price will overshoot first. The capex will follow. Then the new supply,” Currie wrote in his X thread . That sequence, in his framework, is what eventually pushes gold to $10,000. Once central banks stop fighting inflation , pivot back to easier policy, and resume buying physical metal, the same forced sellers of today flip back into structural bidders. What this gold call means for your portfolio None of this guarantees Currie is right. Plenty of veteran strategists have made bold price calls that aged poorly, and the path from $4,000 to $10,000 will almost certainly take years rather than quarters. Iris Cibre, founder of Phoenix Consultancy in Istanbul, has noted that Turkey’s recent gold operations were primarily designed to support the lira during a specific war-driven liquidity crunch, not a verdict on gold’s long-term value, according to the Canadian Mining Report . That distinction matters. Forced selling is not fundamental selling, and a 2025 survey found that 95% of central banks expected global gold holdings to rise over the next 12 months, according to the World Gold Council . In my analysis, what makes Currie’s framework interesting is the structural argument underneath the headline number. Markets have systematically underfunded the physical world for a decade while flooding the digital one with capital. If he is even directionally right, the next gold cycle is less about jewelry, inflation hedges, or fear trades. It is about repricing every ton of metal that an AI data center, an EV plant, or a defense supply chain ultimately needs, an argument that echoes Goldman’s own longer-term outlook for the rest of this decade. For investors holding the SPDR Gold Shares ( GLD ) ETF, which was up 3.32% year-to-date as of last week, the short-term setup looks ugly. Currie himself is positioned for a deeper drawdown first. But the same trade he is shorting today is the one he expects to flip aggressively long once the energy shock starts hurting growth. If you own gold, the next chapter of this story will probably be written by central banks, not by day traders. And central banks have very long memories. Source： https://www.thestreet.com/investing/veteran-goldman-strategist-makes-stunning-10000-gold-call

May 15, 2026 While the silver market has long assumed a massive supply deficit and sharply rising prices, the major Swiss bank UBS is now significantly revising its forecasts for the precious metal downward. The reason: According to analysts, weaker underlying demand is being offset by rising mine production. The supply gap is shrinking dramatically At the heart of the reassessment is the adjustment of the expected market deficit. While UBS had previously assumed a supply gap of 300 million ounces for 2026, this shortfall has shrunk to just 60 to 70 million ounces in the current estimate. This decline results from two opposing trends. On the supply side, the bank sees a more favorable environment and expects global mine production to rise to around 850 million ounces of silver by 2026. At the same time, high silver prices are putting the brakes on consumption. In the photovoltaic, silverware, and jewelry sectors alone, the bank anticipates an aggregate loss in demand of about 50 million ounces. Investors are pulling back Consequently, investment demand is also declining noticeably. Analysts have cut their estimate for the full year from over 400 million to 300 million ounces—a figure that UBS still describes as “generous” in light of recent market movements. Current data supports this skepticism: Global ETF holdings have fallen by nearly 70 million ounces to around 794 million ounces. At the same time, the net positioning of speculative futures investors has retreated to just over 100 million ounces. Silver is thus losing momentum simultaneously in industrial applications and investment vehicles. The New Price Targets: Sideways Instead of a Steep Rise Against this backdrop, the upside potential is diminishing, according to UBS. In the base scenario, the strategists no longer expect a steep upward trend, but rather a broad sideways movement—albeit at a high level. The price targets have been capped accordingly across all time frames: End of Q2 2026: $85 per ounce (previously $100) September 2026: $85 (previously $95) End of 2026: $80 (previously $85) March 2027: $75 (previously $85) Gold as an Anchor and New Trading Strategy Despite the subdued outlook, the Swiss bank does not expect a sharp drop in silver prices. Gold acts as a stabilizer: Analysts continue to anticipate a general upward trend in prices for the yellow metal. Given the recently renewed correlation between the two metals, this also provides a downside hedge for silver. According to the bank, the gold-silver ratio is expected to stabilize in the range of 75 to 80 in the medium term. From the perspective of UBS strategists, selling downside risks to generate returns is currently more attractive than building pure long positions. While implied volatility has calmed down since the extremes seen at the start of the year (in February, realized one-month volatility was nearly 150%), it remains at a high level from a historical perspective. The bank therefore favors strategies for the coming three months that capitalize on this volatility rather than betting directly on further rising silver prices. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/silver-under-scrutiny-why-analysts-are-lowering-their-forecasts