Australia's BHP has approved a $900 million investment to develop the Ministers North high-grade iron ore deposit in Western Australia, which is scheduled to begin construction in July 2026 and expects its first ore by the 2028-29 financial year. Once fully ramped up, the satellite project is designed to deliver an annual production capacity of approximately 20 million metric tons (mt), directly supporting BHP's medium-term Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) target of exceeding 305 million mt per year. This development follows a record-breaking financial year ending June 30, 2026, where BHP's attributable iron ore output rose by 1% year-on-year to 264.7 million mt, while WAIO output remained strong at 256.9 million mt. For the 2026-27 financial year, the company forecasts total production between 260 million and 272 million mt. From a market perspective, the continuous expansion of designed capacity and the steady injection of new output from projects like Ministers North will significantly reinforce global iron ore supply volumes, potentially easing long-term structural supply constraints and heavily influencing international benchmark pricing trends.

Today, DCE iron ore futures prices were under pressure, with the most-traded contract I2609 closing at 744.5 yuan/mt, down about 0.47% from the previous session. Port spot prices fell by about 4-6 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Traders showed less willingness to quote offers, while steel mill procurement was mainly driven by restocking demand. As of now, spot transaction volumes remained low. As of last Friday, global iron ore shipments totaled 30.381 million mt, down 14% WoW. Both Australia's and Brazil's shipments experienced significant declines. During the same period, China's iron ore port arrivals reached 25.015 million mt, down 13% WoW. Supply side, ore supply tightened in the short term, but given high port inventory levels (147 million mt), the overall supply side remained relatively loose. As pig iron production entered a downward trajectory, iron ore demand is expected to weaken further. Therefore, from a fundamental perspective, iron ore prices this week will see slight fluctuations with a downward bias. [SMM Steel]

Shandong mines and beneficiation plants' tax-inclusive, dry basis offer for 64% Fe alkaline fines is 817, up 3. Steel mills raised accordingly. Miners are mostly operating normally; some have inventory accumulation, but most face little inventory pressure. Sales from small plants and traders are average. Recently, steel mills have mainly been purchasing as needed. Domestic iron ore's cost-effectiveness is relatively weak, and overall the desire to push for lower prices is relatively strong. In the short term, local iron ore concentrate transactions are average. Recently, imported iron ore supply has been relatively ample, coupled with the weak trend in iron ore futures. Affected by this, it is estimated that local iron ore concentrate prices may show weak consolidation in the short term. [SMM Steel]

Today, DCE iron ore futures trended firm, pulling back slightly in the afternoon. The I2609 contract closed at 738 yuan/mt, up 0.14% from the previous trading day. Port spot prices rose 2–3 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Traders were active in quoting, steel mills purchased as needed, buying interest was moderate, and as of now, spot transaction volumes were relatively low. Looking ahead, with the downstream entering the off-season and mine shipment pace slowing down, the iron ore supply side is expected to tighten slightly, but the overall ample supply pattern is unlikely to change. Last week, SMM global iron ore shipments totaled 35.16 million mt, up 1.53% WoW, and cumulatively up 1.77% YoY. Among them, Australia's shipments edged down 6% WoW, but Brazil's shipments surged nearly 20% WoW, while shipments from non-mainstream countries edged up MoM. Among the four major miners, Rio Tinto and FMG saw shipment declines. In addition, last week, SMM China iron ore arrivals totaled 28.78 million mt, down 1.88% WoW, and cumulatively up 6.07% YoY. Based on comprehensive analysis, iron ore prices are likely to fluctuate within a range in the near term, but the bearish pattern will persist in the long term. [SMM Steel]

Vietnam’s Ha Tinh Province has officially terminated the Thach Khe iron ore mining project and revoked the project’s investment certificate, according to media reports. The project had been suspended for several years and was operated by Thach Khe Iron Joint Stock Company. Located in Ha Tinh Province, the mine has reserves of around 544 million tonnes and is considered one of the largest iron ore mines in Southeast Asia. Local authorities have assigned relevant departments to handle follow-up matters related to land, finance, assets and other obligations. The termination suggests Vietnam is unlikely to improve domestic iron ore supply through this major project in the near term, limiting local raw material self-sufficiency.

This week, the domestic iron ore concentrates market weakened slightly with regional divergence. Prices in Tangshan, Qian’an, and Qianxi of Hebei were basically stable; western Liaoning’s Chaoyang, Beipiao, and Jianping areas pulled back slightly by 5-10 yuan/mt; east China pulled back 10-15 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to next week, China’s iron ore supply tightness is expected to be hard to ease. Demand side, according to SMM tracking data, hot metal production of steel mill blast furnaces may pull back slightly, weakening support for iron ore concentrates. Steel mills’ desire to bargain down prices will remain dominant. The tug-of-war between sellers and buyers persists. Next week, the domestic iron ore market is expected to be in the doldrums overall. [SMM Steel]

Iron ore prices followed an initial rise and subsequent decline this week, with the price center shifting further lower. The core drivers were that after the ninth round of coke price cuts was implemented, steel mill losses widened further. Combined with expectations of environmental protection-driven production restrictions in some regions, blast furnace maintenance plans increased, hot metal production continued to pull back, and the demand side was clearly under pressure. In terms of supply, global iron ore shipments and China’s port arrivals both increased MoM, with supply-side pressure intensifying somewhat and further weighing on ore prices. During the week, market talk that benchmark negotiations might restrict low-grade ore port cargo pick-up pushed futures to a short-term rebound. However, the market broadly viewed the probability of this measure actually being implemented as low, and after sentiment was released, price logic returned to a demand-led mode. Affected by this, spot prices performed weaker than futures. In port spot cargoes, the weekly average of the MMI 61% index slipped 5 yuan/mt MoM. Chart: MMI 61% Port Spot Index Source: SMM The domestic iron ore concentrate market edged lower this week, with regional divergence in performance. Prices remained basically stable in Tangshan, Qian’an, and Qianxi in Hebei. Areas such as Chaoyang, Beipiao, and Jianping in western Liaoning edged down by 5-10 yuan/mt. East China saw a pullback of 10-15 yuan/mt. Overall domestic ore production remained steady, but the resource landscape diverged by region. Supply in Hebei remained somewhat tight; within this, the Chengde area saw a further contraction in resource supply due to a mining accident, which provided some support to local iron ore concentrate prices. On the demand side, hot metal production at steel mill blast furnaces remained at a high level, still offering support to iron ore concentrate demand. However, steel mill profits have narrowed significantly recently, and the overall desire to bargain down prices is strong, causing local iron ore concentrate prices to edge down slightly. Chart: Tight Domestic Ore Supply Supports Prices — Domestic vs. Imported Ore Price Spread to Widen Further Next Week Outlook for Next Week Looking ahead to next week, the probability of the 10th round of coke price increases being implemented is relatively high. Increasing steel mill maintenance resulting from losses will lead to a larger decline in hot metal production. Iron ore demand will continue to deteriorate. Meanwhile, mines will push shipments in June, and imported ore port arrivals still have upside room over the next two weeks, leading to a slight accumulation in port inventories. In addition, a new round of talks between the US and Iran is scheduled for mid-month, and crude oil prices still face downside expectations, so iron ore shipping costs will remain weak. Iron ore prices will remain under pressure. However, considering the disturbance from benchmark negotiation news, there may be opportunities for a price rebound. Overall, iron ore prices are expected to remain in the doldrums next week. Domestically, the tight iron ore supply situation is expected to be difficult to alleviate. But given that demand for iron ore concentrates has weakened somewhat, steel mills’ push for lower prices will continue to dominate. The game between sellers and buyers continues. Overall, the domestic iron ore market is expected to be in the doldrums next week, but the decline may be smaller than that for imported ore.

The DCE iron ore futures weakened after surging during the night session today, with contract I2609 closing at 740 yuan/mt, up 0.48% from the previous trading day. Port spot prices rose by 5-8 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Trader activity was moderate, steel mills purchased as needed, and spot trading volume has been average so far. Fundamentals of iron ore supply and demand remain stable, with supply on the loose side, and are expected to be steady as the pace of mine shipments slows. On the demand side, as the Southeast Asian export market enters the steel off-season, regional traders have begun to proactively cut prices to compete, causing China's export demand to weaken. However, there is still buffer room in domestic steel inventory, which is unlikely to trigger steel mills' willingness to cut production in the short term. On the news front, aside from rumors of supply tightening for specific products, there were no events determining the market trend. Therefore, considering all factors, short-term iron ore prices are likely to fluctuate within a range. [SMM Steel]

Today, DCE iron ore futures started weak and strengthened later, with contract I2609 eventually closing at 746 yuan/mt, up 0.67% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices were unchanged from the previous trading day. Trader activity was moderate, and steel mills purchased as needed. Spot trading volumes were mediocre as of now. In the short term, the iron ore supply side continues to ease. According to SMM data, China's iron ore port arrivals reached 29.33 million mt last week, up 5.47% WoW and 5.94% YoY. Meanwhile, SMM's total iron ore inventory across 35 ports reached approximately 148 million mt based on the latest data, with overall destocking beginning to slow down. As downstream demand weakens, pressure on the iron ore supply side is gradually emerging, continuing to cap the price ceiling. Meanwhile, bullish and bearish rumors are intertwined in the news, which may drive iron ore prices to edge up slightly in the near term. Taking all factors into account, the market may continue its sideways consolidation pattern in the near term. [SMM Steel]

DCE iron ore futures traded on a strong note today before pulling back slightly near the close, with the most-traded I2609 contract finally closing at 748 yuan/mt, up 0.81% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices rose 8-11 yuan/mt from the day before. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills maintained a strong wait-and-see attitude. Spot trading volume has been moderate so far. Looking ahead, according to the SMM survey, port data for iron ore this period showed slight destocking, with total inventory reaching 148.66 million mt, down 690,000 mt MoM, while port pick-up volume edged down 38,000 mt to 3.23 million mt. The destocking was mainly driven by lower port arrivals. Overall, the iron ore supply side remained ample. On the news front, market rumors were frequent, and the tug-of-war between longs and shorts was intense, with no clear divergence emerging yet. With fundamentals and sentiment intertwined, iron ore prices are likely to continue moving sideways in the short term.